ING THINK aloud

The UK government has changed some of the provisions in its divorce agreement with the EU, putting strain on already tense relations with the bloc and threatening to undermine a trade deal. In response, investors have pushed the pound down against both the dollar and the euro. But is a trade deal really so much better than no deal at all? In this podcast, ING's Developed Markets Economist James Smith offers his thoughts and explains why a sudden plunge in GDP is unlikely. 

Is the Federal Reserve encouraging a stock market bubble? Critics say a recent change to the central bank's policy framework has undesirable side effects and puts the dollar at risk. Fed member Lael Brainard admitted this week that the new policy, and consequent expectations that interest rates will stay lower for longer, could indeed entice investors to take more risk in the search for higher returns. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner looks at what this means for financial markets around the world. 

With less than 10 weeks to go until the US election, President Trump continues to trail Democrat rival Joe Biden in the polls. But the race is far from over. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley discusses how economic developments could affect the outcome of the vote and what the result could mean for policy, and for financial markets.

Many short-time work schemes in Europe are set to end at the turn of the year, suggesting the unemployment rate will finally start to reflect some of the huge economic damage caused by Covid-19. In this podcast ING's Carsten Brzeski tells Rebecca Byrne what he's expecting from the job market over the coming year and how this could impact the recovery.

Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, warned explicitly that the economic recovery in the US will depend on the path of Covid-19, perhaps in an effort to provide a dose of realism to buoyant equity markets. The optimism priced into stocks stands in stark contrast to the much more negative sentiment in the bond market, where Treasury yields are near record lows. In this podcast, Padhraic Garvey, ING's Regional Head of Research in the Americas, tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne which market has got it right.

EU leaders have agreed to issue common debt and hand it out as grants to struggling member states, in a move that some have compared to Alexander Hamilton's decision to federalise US debt. In this podcast,  ING's Senior Eurozone Economist Bert Colijn tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne what the agreement really means for future integration and discusses its implications for the economy and markets. 

China’s economy is growing again. But so, too, is global pressure. The US officially rescinded Hong Kong’s special status this week while the UK is banning Huawei from its 5G network. Meanwhile, China’s relations with Canada, Australia and many of its Asian neighbours are strained by disputes over technology, trade and its pursuit of resources in the South China Sea. In this podcast, ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Iris Pang, discusses the risks and challenges ahead with Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne.

UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak has laid out the next phase in the government's response to the Covid-19 pandemic, as the economy reopens after a three-month lockdown and the worst slump in 300 years.  He announced measures to support the job market, as the furlough scheme is gradually wound down, cuts to VAT and property taxes as well as restaurant vouchers, to help sectors hit particularly hard by the crisis. But will the new plans really help to minimise job losses and stimulate demand, as consumers remain wary about the virus and social distancing measures remain in place? In this podcast, ING's Developed Markets Economist shares his thoughts with Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne. 

With 1.4 million coronavirus cases and over 60,000 deaths, Brazil now ranks as the second worst hit country in the world after the United States. But while the political response to the crisis has been controversial, its economy will not suffer as much as some of its neighbours in the region amid sharp cuts in interest rates and generous fiscal policy. In this podcast, ING's Chief Economist for Latin America, Gustavo Rangel, discusses the outlook for the country with Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne.

Covid-19 cases are still rising in the US. But so, too, are financial markets. The S&P 500 is on track for one of its best quarters ever while the Nasdaq recently hit a record high and the safe-haven dollar is selling off. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner explains what's been driving these moves and what may lie ahead for the currency markets in the second half of the year.