ING THINK aloud

Optimism surrounding the Covid vaccine coupled with a crude oil production cut from Saudi Arabia have lifted the price of Brent by about 7% since the start of the year, adding to a 25% surge in the last three months of 2020. But with many economies still in full lockdown, demand for oil is expected to be weak over the next few months while higher prices could encourage some producers to pump more than agreed. So are the gains justified or has the rally gone too far? And how will the rest of the commodities complex perform this year? Warren Patterson, ING’s Head of Commodities Strategy in Singapore, shares his thoughts.

With a new variant of Covid-19 spreading rapidly across the UK, schools, non-essential retail, pubs and restaurants have been forced to shut until the middle of February, when priority groups are expected to have been vaccinated and measures can be eased. In response to the national lockdown, Chancellor Rishi Sunak has announced a £4.6 billion relief package but many businesses fear that won’t be enough and that more help is needed. In this podcast, ING's Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne asks Developed Markets Economist James Smith what impact the new restrictions will have on the economy in the coming weeks and months.

With just two weeks to go before the Brexit transition period comes to an end, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen still haven’t agreed on the terms of a future relationship. But there’s little sign of panic in financial markets. News that the negotiations will continue past the Sunday deadline and signs that the mood has become slightly more conciliatory have pushed the pound higher this week. But will this optimism last and what does it mean for the pound if ultimately, no deal is agreed? In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets Chris Turner discusses the outlook for sterling, and what may be in store for other currencies in 2021.

UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak has laid the groundwork for tackling Britain's unprecedented surge in borrowing, which is set to hit a peacetime record of almost £400 billion this year. But is it too soon to be worrying about the spiralling debt load? In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey shares his thoughts

President-elect Joe Biden says the Trump administration’s refusal to concede the election will not affect the transition of power. But could this lack of cooperation be a harbinger of things to come? Unless Democrats can secure two Senate seats in Georgia in a January run-off, Republicans will retain control of the upper chamber, constraining Biden’s ability to push through his economic agenda and the Democrats' proposed fiscal stimulus, worth $3.4 trillion.

The ongoing political division in Washington comes as millions of Americans remain out of work, incomes are being squeezed and rising Covid-19 cases raise the spectre of tighter restrictions. In this podcast, ING’s Chief International Economist James Knightley discusses the outlook for the US economy, with Biden at the helm.

President Trump's 'America First' policy has been criticised by rival Joe Biden as an isolationist strategy that has left America alone in the world, turning former allies into adversaries. The European Union may be a case in point. Faced with threats of tariffs and sanctions, trade relations have soured in recent years, with Trump calling Europe a "foe" which is "almost as bad as China". In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne how the coming election could influence transatlantic relations and Europe's economy.

New lockdown measures to stem the spread of the virus in Europe are threatening to plunge the region back into recession after a brief respite over the summer, while disputes among policymakers risk delaying much-needed stimulus. In this podcast, ING's Bert Colijn discusses the outlook for the region in the fourth quarter and beyond.  

With more Americans than ever voting by mail in the November election, and President Trump's warning that the final outcome may not be known for months, the spectre of a delayed result is still a risk to financial markets despite Joe Biden's current lead in the polls. High yield bonds - sometimes considered to be the canary in the coal mine for broader risk assets - are starting to wobble, with the European market registering its first monthly negative return since March. Is it a sign of things to come? ING's Senior High Yield Credit Analyst Oleksiy Soroka explains. 

A recent increase in the number of Covid-19 cases and new lockdown measures to stem the spread of the virus have sparked concern that demand for oil could be hit at a time when supply is picking up. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson discusses the outlook for oil prices, what OPEC+ may do next and how the US presidential election could play a role. 

The Covid-19 pandemic has ripped through the developing world this year with particular cruelty and ferocity, upending lives and livelihoods on a scale never seen before. But in markets, at least, signs of hope have started to emerge. In this podcast, ING's Emerging Market Sovereign Debt Strategist Trieu Pham takes a look at what the future holds for some of the hardest-hit countries in the world.