ING THINK aloud

The countries of Central and Eastern Europe have successfully avoided the middle-income trap and evolved into high-income economies. The next challenge is to converge with the income levels enjoyed by some of the core EU economies. But this could prove more difficult. The old growth model, based on exports and cheap labour, has reached its limits, and a new strategy is now required.

In this week’s THINK aloud, a condensed replay of our live webinar, we discuss the long-term challenges and opportunities in the region, and share our views on the outlook for growth, inflation and monetary policy over the coming year.

Inflation is down and unemployment is rising. Have global central banks left it too late to start cutting interest rates? ING's economists and analysts share their views in this week's THINK aloud.

The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are largely in recovery mode. Slowing inflation and rising real wages have boosted consumer spending, which should continue to support GDP growth well into 2025.

Meanwhile, on the investment front, the region is drawing substantial interest from large multinational corporations, as its strategic location, low cost base and skilled workforce position it  as an ideal hub for nearshoring.

The benefits of EU accession have been tangible across the board. But of course, there are short- and longer-term challenges.

In this podcast, a condensed replay of our live Webinar, our team of experts share their views on Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine and the Commonwealth of Independent States.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday from a record high of 4%. It’s an unusual move for two reasons: There’s no recession or crisis to precipitate a cut – in fact the eurozone economy has recently shown signs of improvement. And it comes ahead of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, which has traditionally led the way for the ECB, but isn’t expected to ease policy until later in the year. In this week’s THINK aloud, a replay of our live quarterly webinar, ING’s Carsten Brzeski and James Knightley discuss why policymakers are currently pursuing different paths, how long the divergence could last, and whether the coming US and European elections could influence decisions on monetary policy. James Smith looks at the timing of a Bank of England rate cut amid a crucial UK vote while Chris Turner explains what it could all mean for the markets.  

China is a country in transition. After decades of rapid growth at any cost, the economic model is shifting to one centred on high quality, sustainable growth driven by the consumer. In this podcast, a replay of our recent webinar, ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China Lynn Song tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne why he thinks this will be a difficult but necessary transition while Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey explains what it could mean for industrial metals. 

In this week’s THINK aloud, we bring you the highlights of our Economics Live webinar, where we discussed the outlook for the global economy, monetary policy and financial markets with ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, James Smith and Francesco Pesole.

2023 was the hottest year on record. The Copernicus Climate Change Service says temperatures last year likely exceeded “those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years”. Yet the United Nations says global commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions are still “falling far short of what is required”. Without urgent action, scientists say, our planet faces severe and irreversible climate disruption.

But there is some hope. And it comes from Artificial Intelligence, as ING's Ewa Manthey explains in this podcast.

Recent months have seen the US dollar on a powerful bull run. Propelled by strong economic growth and a hawkish Federal Reserve, which has signalled that interest rates will stay higher for longer, the dollar index has risen around 5% since July. But will this strong dollar theme continue in 2024? ING's Chris Turner has his doubts.

The price of oil surged more than 30% in the third quarter, driven by solid global demand, supply cuts from OPEC+ and additional voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. But is the market starting to turn? And what does it all mean for growth, inflation and monetary policy? ING's Head of Commodities Strategy, Warren PattersonSenior Economist Bert Colijn says this has serious implications for growth, inflation and monetary policy in the eurozone.

As interest rates in the US, UK and Europe approach a peak, and economic growth shows further signs of faltering, the focus has firmly shifted to rate cuts. In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of ING's live central bank webinar, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss their forecasts for monetary policy over the coming year while Chris Turner explains what it all means for markets.