ING THINK aloud

As the Western world struggles to tame high inflation, fears of persistent deflation are taking root in China. Prices at the factory gate have been dropping for months and in June, fell at the fastest pace in seven years. Consumer prices, meanwhile, have begun to flatline. The property market is stagnating and the economy overall has been losing momentum, fuelling speculation that China could be facing a prolonged period of decline similar to the so-called Lost Decade witnessed by Japan in the 1990s.

China, the world’s second biggest economy, may indeed be entering a new era, after many years of rapid growth. But ING’s Regional Head of Research in Asia, Rob Carnell, says comparisons to Japan are wide of the mark. In this podcast, he explains why.      

Global temperatures have shattered records this month, heightening the urgency to reduce carbon emissions. But the energy transition and the shift to electric vehicles, in particular, is fraught with challenges, as ING Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey explains in this podcast.

In this podcast, a replay of an ING event this week, Developed Markets Economist James Smith and Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne discuss the outlook for UK inflation, interest rates, and mortgage costs, and whether a recession is now inevitable while Global Head of Markets Chris Turner explains what the markets are looking for - and why the pound has recently been faltering.

In a live webinar event this week, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski and James Smith discussed the outlook for inflation, economic growth and monetary policy around the world while Chris Turner explained what it could all mean for markets.

As talks to raise the US debt ceiling go down to the wire, and the threat of a default looms large, currency markets have remained remarkably composed. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner discusses what could happen to the dollar if a deal is not agreed, and what he expects from the rest of the FX world in the months ahead.

As two more regional US lenders - PacWest and Western Alliance - saw their share prices collapse this week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again but hinted that this may be the peak of the tightening cycle. In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley explains why he expects the Fed to reverse course "very quickly and very sharply" while ING's Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski discusses what this could all mean for Europe.

With soaring public debt since the Covid pandemic and much higher debt servicing costs after aggressive rate hikes around the world, emerging markets remain a risky proposition. Some countries, like Zambia, Ghana, and Sri Lanka have already defaulted. The IMF has revised down its forecasts for EM economies in recent months, and the global impact of the recent banking crisis in the US and Europe is not yet known. Yet, ING’s sovereign debt strategist James Wilson sees value in the developing world. In this podcast, he explains why.

In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Sector Research Jeroen van den Broek and Credit Strategist Tim Rahill discuss how the recent turmoil in the banking sector has impacted the credit market and why they remain constructive on the outlook for corporate bonds in 2023.

In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey and Antoine Bouvet discuss the latest central bank decisions to raise interest rates despite recent turmoil in the banking sector.

In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss where interest rates may be heading in the US, Europe and UK while Chris Turner explains what this could all mean for global markets.