We’re approaching crunch time in Belém, and a long-running COP30 saga may finally have found its landing spot. After days of rumour, diplomacy and thunderous rainforest downpours, the question of who will host COP31 looks close to being resolved - and it all plays out over the course of our day’s recording.

Paul Dickinson and Fiona McRaith trace the twists of the Australia-Turkey negotiations in real time, with insight from former UN diplomat Dean Bialek. Plus, we hear from political journalist Thais Bilenky on the domestic pressures shaping Lula’s approach, as the Brazilian president personally steps in to break the deadlock.

Across the day, the team also dives into one of the summit’s biggest sticking points: CBAM, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. In a wide-ranging conversation, the EU’s Teresa Ribera lays out why Brussels sees CBAM as essential for true decarbonisation - but why it’s sparking concern among countries who fear they’ll be penalised while still industrialising.

Then it’s over to the Action Agenda, with Dan Ioschpe and Jennie Dodson giving a ground-level view of how coalitions, companies and cities are reshaping the COP’s centre of gravity - from regenerative landscapes in Brazil to global momentum across grids, food systems and industry.

Finally, as we’re packing up the mics, news of COP31 appears to land. What does this unusual arrangement mean? What happens to the long-promised Pacific Island leadership? And what will it take for next year’s COP to deliver on the ambition so many hoped this decision would unlock?

Learn more:

📣 Read the latest reports about the COP31 host and Presidency

⚙️ Dive into the nuts and bolts of the EU’s CBAM

🧩 Explore the 6 pillars and 30 objectives of the COP30 Action Agenda

🌍 Check out the official COP30 website for background and announcements

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Lead Producer: Ben Weaver-Hincks

Planning Producer: Caitlin Hanrahan

Edited by: Miles Martignoni

Exec Producer: Ellie Clifford

With thanks to Groundswell and Global Optimism.

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