(Conversation recorded on November 6th, 2024)  

The vision of a carbon-free, net-zero society is often framed around the promise of transitioning away from fossil fuels. But what can we learn from past “energy transitions” that might inform how feasible – or unrealistic – this vision actually is? 

Today, Nate is joined by energy and technology historian Jean-Baptiste Fressoz for a lesson on the importance of understanding the historical trajectory of energy use for realistically navigating the unprecedented challenges humanity faces today – including the dominant narrative of a modern-day “energy transition.” Jean-Baptiste explores the interdependent relationship between different energy sources—from wood to coal to oil—and reveals how this history shapes our hopes for renewables and nuclear energy moving forward.

How can examining the history of energy and material use help us fully grasp the scale at which human societies actually consume them? What role do our current economic systems play in driving an ever-growing demand for new energy sources? In the history of our species, have we ever fully transitioned off of one energy source and replaced it with another – and what does this imply for the hope of a fossil-free future?   

About Jean Baptiste Fressoz:

Jean-Baptiste Fressoz is a historian and researcher at the Alexandre Koyré Center of the School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences in Paris, France. His work focuses on environmental history, technology and energy, and the Anthropocene. He is the author of Happy Apocalypse: A History of Technological Risk, as well as the co-author of the book Chaos in the Heavens: The Forgotten History of Climate Change. Most recently, he wrote More and More and More: An All Consuming History of Energy.

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(Recorded January 27th, 2025)

We live in an era where artificial intelligence increasingly dominates the headlines with promises of revolutionary advances - from medical breakthroughs to productivity gains. Yet, while society fixates on these micro-level innovations, a deeper macro story remains largely untold: how AI may fundamentally reshape the relationship between humanity, technology, and the living world. As we race towards artificial superintelligence, we face a species-level ‘Icarus moment’ - where our technological ambitions risk outstripping our collective wisdom as we fly too close to the sun.

In this Frankly, Nate explores seven potential macro-risks associated with AI, from the amplification of wealth inequality to the (literal) existential threat of superintelligence. Through the lens of ‘obligatory technology’ and Jevons paradox, he examines how AI could turbocharge the economic superorganism - accelerating its impact on resource extraction, ecosystem degradation, and human meaning - all while fragmenting our shared reality and concentrating power in dangerous ways.

What happens when we outsource, not just our labor, but also our creativity and meaning-making to machines? How might society adapt when technological efficiency leads to even greater resource extraction and consumption? And as we stand at this critical juncture, can we find ways to “use the devil’s tools in service of Gaia’s work”? Or are we opening a Pandora’s box that cannot be closed? Metaphors - and risks - abound.

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(Conversation recorded on October 30th, 2024)  

Human consumption of fossil fuels - especially oil - is a topic filled with complexity, tension, and uncertainty. Understanding this issue requires accounting for a wide range of factors - from dynamic global markets and widely dispersed reserves to ongoing innovation and geopolitical conflicts. Attempting to navigate this intricate landscape is no easy task. But in the midst of these challenges, are there fundamental truths about the future of energy that experts can agree on?

Today, Nate is joined by geologist and energy expert, Scott Tinker, to delve into the complexities of global oil supply and demand, the concept of peak oil, and the future possibilities of energy production and transition. Together, they explore the decline rates of oil reservoirs, the physics behind oil extraction, and the role of technology in oil production.

Can nations strike a balance between energy security, geopolitical considerations, and the pursuit of a "clean" energy future? How solid are concepts like peak oil demand in a world still grappling with energy poverty? And perhaps most crucially, why is it essential to foster open dialogue and educate the public on these issues, so that we can all play an informed role in shaping our energy future?

About Scott Tinker:

Dr. Scott W. Tinker is a global energy explorer and educator bringing industry, government, academia, and nongovernmental organizations together to address major societal challenges in energy, the environment, and the economy. Following a 17-year career in the energy industry, Scott spent 24 years as an Endowed Professor and Director of the 250-person Bureau of Economic Geology at UT Austin. He is CEO of Tinker Energy Associates and Chairman and CEO of the nonprofit Switch Energy Alliance. With Director Harry Lynch, Scott co-produced and is featured in the award-winning documentary films Switch and Switch On, screened to millions of viewers globally. Scott is also the host of Energy Switch, an energy and climate point-counterpoint show on PBS.

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(Recorded January 20th, 2025)

We are alive at a critical juncture for human civilization, and the biosphere, where the pursuit and accumulation of power - accelerated by technology and AI - increasingly threatens the support systems of the diversity and majesty of complex life on Earth. These high stakes of our times require a radical reimagination and commitment to who we are capable of becoming as homo sapiens: a shift from narrow to wide-boundary sovereignty, moving beyond individual survival strategies and towards collective wisdom and restraint. 

In this Frankly, Nate outlines nine aspirational categories for empowering more individuals towards mature and resilient development in service of life. From intellectual to ecological to psycho-spiritual, these act as signposts to help guide us towards forming interconnected islands of coherence in the face of an uncertain future. 

What does it mean to be authentically sovereign in an interconnected world? How can we develop personal and collective resilience? And what changes can you make in your own life to help better steer humanity through the turbulence of our times?

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(Conversation recorded on December 18th, 2024)  

With the increase in geopolitical conflicts, supply chain challenges, and unprecedented natural disasters, there is more need than ever for international humanitarian organizations that transcend political and national allegiances. How will such organizations grow and evolve to become a central component to humanity’s adaptation to the coming Great Simplification? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by European Regional Director for The Red Cross, Birgitte Bischoff, to discuss her vision for the future of humanitarian work and the challenges and opportunities for more proactive and prepared planning. Together, they discuss the critical importance of individual volunteers and the integration of a systems thinking approach at The Red Cross. 

How will diplomacy and an emphasis on social responsibility help us navigate the growing international pressures from rising migration and resource constraints? In what ways can scenario planning improve our responses to the multitude of converging crises, as well as foster resilience? Most of all, in an unknown future of potentially existential challenges, what can we do to be prepared and respond with empathy and tolerance? 

About Birgitte Bischoff:

Birgitte Bischoff Ebbesen is the International Federation of the Red Cross Regional Director for Europe, covering 53 Red Cross Red Crescent National Societies in Europe and Central Asia. The Regional Director is responsible for implementing the IFRC mandated functions: Strategic and Operational Coordination; Membership Services and Humanitarian Diplomacy in the region. 

Birgitte has more than 15 years’ experience working with the IFRC network and was previously the International Director of Danish Red Cross and Co-chair of the IFRC Reference Centre for Psychosocial Support.

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(Conversation recorded on December 11th, 2024)  

The past century has been marked by the rise of globalization in every sense of the word - through production, culture, agriculture, consumption and more. This trend has brought great wealth and opportunities to many people - but what have we lost and forgotten through this process? 

In this Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by members of the bioregioning movement, Daniel Christian Wahl, Samantha Power, and Isabel Carlisle, to discuss the necessity of reconnecting to our local places for the sake of addressing our ecological, social, and economic challenges. In this fascinating exchange, Nate and his guests emphasize the need for decentralized governance and institutions, as well as communities organized around resilience and regeneration. 

How deep are the historical and indigenous ties of humanity to the bioregional way of life? In what ways can individuals begin to engage with their local bioregions and contribute to a regenerative future? Finally, how can more humans who are connected and in relationship with the land influence future societies and cultures to be more aligned to the well-being of all life? 

About Daniel Christian Wahl:

Daniel Christian Wahl is one of the catalysts of the rising reGeneration and the author of ‘Designing Regenerative Cultures’ - so far translated into seven languages. He works as a consultant, educator and activist with NGOs, businesses, governments and global change agents. With degrees in biology and holistic science and a PhD in Design for Human and Planetary Health, his work has influenced the emerging fields of regenerative design and salutogenic design. Daniel is winner of the 2021 RSA Bicentenary Medal for applying design in service to society and was awarded a two year Volans-Fellowship in 2022.

About Samantha Power:

Samantha Power is a Co-Founder and the Director of the BioFi Project and the Founder and Principal Consultant of Finance for Gaia. She is a Regenerative Economist, Futurist, and Bioregionalist based in Oakland, CA on the ancestral land of the Ohlone people. Samantha channeled her 15 years of experience learning and working in this space into a new book: 'Bioregional Financing Facilities: Reimagining Finance to Regenerate Our Planet’. The book makes the case for and explains how to build institutions to shift capital to place-based regenerators to achieve global climate and nature-related goals, while enabling the transition to regenerative economies. To turn this vision into a global movement, Samantha co-founded the BioFi Project — a collective of experts supporting bioregions around the world to design, build, and implement BFFs inspired by the templates laid out in the book.

About Isabel Carlisle:

Isabel Carlisle is a communicator, educator and large-scale project organiser. Her experience in the London art world (where her work included writing as an art critic for The Times and curating exhibitions at the Royal Academy) led her to set up and direct the Festival of Muslim Cultures that took place across Britain throughout 2006. Over 120 events in almost every conceivable art form brought audiences into contact with the Muslim world in order to build bridges of understanding between cultures. Isabel moved to South Devon in 2010 and created and led learning programmes for children and young adults with Transition Network. Since 2012 she has trained in Regenerative Development and Design with Regenesis.

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(Conversation recorded on December 4th, 2024)  

It is an unfortunate reality that the countries least responsible for the climate and ecological crises we face are often the ones most vulnerable to their effects today and in the future. India – with its population of 1.4 billion, rapidly rising temperatures, and limited resources compared to many developed nations – finds itself at the crossroads of these challenges. What do India’s leading scientists and advocates have to say about coping with these extreme pressures?  

In this episode, Nate is joined by environmentalist and policy advocate Sunita Narain to discuss the intricate relationship between environmental issues and development, emphasizing the need for economically inclusive solutions. She highlights India’s challenges with sanitation, urban mobility, and climate change, while pushing for wiser approaches to governance and community planning.

How can the moral and cultural history of India combine with science and innovation to guide policy making decisions? Why does ‘sustainable development’ need to go beyond environmental considerations to include the economic availability for each nation’s poorest citizens? And perhaps most importantly, how could today’s challenges position India as a global leader in creating an economic system that prioritizes the health and well-being of all life on Earth?

About Sunita Narain:

Sunita Narain has worked at the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), a research and advocacy centre based in New Delhi, since 1982. She is currently Executive Director of the Centre, Treasurer of the Society for Environmental Communications and Editor of the bi-monthly magazine Down To Earth.

She is a writer and environmentalist who uses knowledge for change. In 2005, she was awarded the Padma Shri, the fourth-highest civilian award of the Republic of India. She has also received the World Water Prize for her work on rainwater harvesting and for her political influence in developing paradigms for community water management. In 2005, she also chaired the Tiger Task Force, at the request of the Prime Minister, to develop a conservation action plan for the country after the loss of the tigers in Sariska. Sunita Narain was a member of the Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change as well as the National Ganga River Basin Authority.

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(Conversation recorded on November 25th, 2024)

The crises that our world is facing seem to be constantly growing, leading to enormous and devastating systemic effects across the globe. Yet, the ripples of the human predicament are also reaching our personal lives in unexpected ways – through chronic loneliness, loss of coherence to reality, and a widespread feeling of insignificance. 

How do we begin to navigate the crisis of meaning that seems to accompany modernity, exacerbated by feeling out of control in the broader world we live in? 

In today’s conversation, Nate is joined by professor of psychology and cognitive scientist John Vervaeke to discuss the state of ‘the meaning crisis’, including the social and cultural contexts that have fostered such pervasive loss of connection and purpose. Vervaeke also unpacks the key practices that he and others have found most effective in regaining wisdom and direction while living in the modern era. 

What can cognitive science tell us about the role of spirituality and religion in living a life that is rich in relationships and clarity? How do flow states, rituals, and lifelong learning contribute to strengthening mental health and fostering adaptability? And perhaps most importantly, how might reconnecting with a sense of humility, wisdom, and shared humanity help guide us toward a more meaningful, collective existence?

About John Vervaeke: 

John Vervaeke, Ph.D. is an award-winning professor at the University of Toronto in the departments of psychology, cognitive science, and Buddhist psychology. He currently teaches courses in the Psychology department on thinking and reasoning, cognitive development, and higher cognitive processes.

John is also the director of the Cognitive Science program where he teaches additional courses on Cognitive Science and consciousness, wherein he emphasizes 4E (embodied, embedded, enacted, and extended) models of cognition and consciousness.

Additionally, John is the director of the Consciousness and Wisdom Studies Laboratory. He is also the co-author of the book Zombies in Western Culture: A 21st Century Crisis, which integrates Psychology and Cognitive Science to address the meaning crisis in Western society. 

He is the author and presenter of the YouTube series Awakening from the Meaning Crisis.

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This year on The Great Simplification, we heard from 54 guests, 18 Reality Roundtable panelists, and Nate shared his thoughts across 31 Frankly episodes. But even after releasing 300+ hours of conversations and reflections since this show began, we are only just beginning to connect all the moving parts that make up The Human Predicament.

As 2025 approaches, we invite you to reflect on this compilation of answers to a question that Nate asks every guest: “If you could wave a magic wand – and there was no personal recourse to your decision, what is one thing you would do to improve human and planetary futures?” 

While some of these answers would truly take magic to achieve, and others involve actions that we have the power to enact on the individual level and within the communities around us right now, we hope you feel motivated and inspired by the magical thinking of these experts to wave a wand wherever you find yourself in the unfolding story of The Great Simplification. Thank you so much for your continuing support, and for caring so deeply about the topics of this show.

So, what would you do with a magic wand?

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(Recorded December 16, 2024)

As we wrap up another year of thought-provoking discussions on The Great Simplification, Nate takes us on an imaginative journey in this week’s Frankly - exploring a potential movie script idea that blends systems, science and fiction. What if someone who deeply understood the challenges of today's global economic Superorganism could travel back in time? Armed with the knowledge of our current ecological and economic trajectory, what would they change? What could they change?

Hollywood media could serve as a powerful tool to educate and inspire a wider audience on the systems science of our current predicament. Unpacking his movie idea, Nate shows us how the interventions highlighted - even if sci-fi -  could educate audiences about the complex dynamics which have shaped the issues we now face. Through key character developments, we explore the constraints imposed by the path dependency of the Superorganism, realities about aggregate human behavior, and where degrees of freedom might exist to shift the trajectory of the future - in service of life.

If you could travel back through time to the 1970s (or to any date), how would YOU intervene to shape the future? Could education, regenerative ecology, or “Superorganism-free zones” alter the trajectory of civilization? And more broadly, how might Hollywood still play a role in translating the systems science towards providing agency to the general public?

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