Inside Markets

Equity markets are in the middle of a strong seasonal period when upside often results in performance chasing into year-end.

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The 'bad news is good' phase likely remains intact as disappointing data drives bond yields lower and should drive stock prices higher.

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Yesterday's cooler CPI combined with the October Jobs report give reason to conclude the hiking cycle is now done.

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The 4% YoY core CPI rate remains 2x higher than the Fed’s target. Today’s dip in the core rate likely means that rate hikes are over, but policy could remain restrictive until the 2% target is within range or until something breaks.

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The Fed will likely wait for three consecutive months of lower YOY headline CPI prints before officially calling an end to the hiking cycle.

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We expect 10-year yields to remain above our 4.48% bullish inflection target for the remainder of Q4.

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The market has entered a brief catalyst vacuum ahead of next week's CPI and retail sales reports.

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A confirmed peak in bonds yields should be an equity friendly development.

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Last week, the S&P 500 (SPX) gained +5.9% as a lower-than expected Treasury refunding announcement, dovish Fed and disappointing data triggered a pullback in bond yields.

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Disappointing macro data and a coincident decline in bond yields has driven equity upside this week, but investors will eventually need to consider the growth implications.

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