Inside Markets

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The overshoot in headline CPI came mostly from higher shelter prices, while the Fed’s preferred ‘super core’ rate that excludes housing declined to 3.91% YoY from 4.05% in August.

An end of the hiking cycle doesn’t mean the tightening cycle is over.  

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We may be in the early stages of a transition phase, where a decline in bond yields reflects rapidly growth expectations.

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The S&P 500 (SPX) is staging a small relief rally from oversold levels after holding key technical support near 4200.

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Tomorrow’s Jobs Report and next Thursday’s CPI print could materially change the outlook for bond yields and equities.

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The recent backup in yields has been largely disconnected from fundamentals.

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Pandemic-related fiscal spending in the spring of '21 was unnecessary and reckless given that US manufacturing PMI was at an all-time record high.

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US equity markets will struggle to advance as rising bond yields threaten valuation multiples, present a near-term drag on growth and increase the risk of dislocation in funding markets.

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This morning’s release of US core PCE and Eurozone CPI fail to shift an emerging stagflation narrative.

The only fundamental justification for the recent backup in bond yields seems to come from the extended rally in crude oil and its assumed eventual impact on inflation expectations.