Higher realized volatility remains our primary concern.

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Breakdowns in cyclically-sensitive indices are now leading the broader US benchmarks lower.

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Equity volatility has advanced from a mid-September low.

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US consumer strength has been a major reason to doubt near-term recession risk all year, but some cracks are beginning to show.

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Yesterday, the Russell 2000 (RTY) broke support near its 200-day moving average after a bearish distribution pattern developed in late August.

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The intrigue for today's meeting is mostly focused on the updated dot plot.

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We remain tactically bearish as developed markets form distribution patterns amid rising yields and rising crude prices.

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The Fed is widely expected to pause at this week’s meeting. The updated dot plot seems to be the wildcard with a ~30% chance for the median dot to price out another 25bp hike for 2023.  

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European equity indices are in the early stages of forming what looks like technical distribution patterns.

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Headline CPI should decline over three consecutive months beginning in January and the Fed will signal an end to its tightening cycle in February or March.