Inside Markets

This morning’s August CPI print did little to shift the inflation narrative in either direction.

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We continue to see 4525 as the near-term ceiling amid ongoing monetary policy uncertainty.

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The soonest we now see the hiking cycle ending is Q1'24.

A temporary end to the disinflation theme should make this a ‘bad news is good’ phase for equity markets when it comes to data.

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Today's ISM reinforces renewed concerns around sticky inflation into next week's CPI print.

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The bond market is pricing in a ~37% chance of another rate hike this year.

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This week’s data mostly supported the idea that the Fed is done with rate hikes, but it’s not a foregone conclusion by any means.  

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Systematic funds should be net-buyers of equities given subtle changes in technical conditions.

The probability of a soft landing in the current environment seems low given that the current tightening cycle has been the most severe in terms of magnitude.

We expect labor market data and 'super core' PCE will be the most important inputs for future Fed policy.