The ceasefire between the US and Iran is holding - for now. But beneath the surface, the signals tell a more uncertain story.

In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei is joined by defence analyst Mark Urban and International Editor Lindsey Hilsum to examine the key signs shaping what happens next. From US military build-up in the region to Iran’s strategic use of the Strait of Hormuz, the question is whether this fragile pause is the start of a settlement, or simply a prelude to further conflict.

They explore the shifting balance of power, the role of regional players like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and the growing pressure on Israel as the war’s dynamics evolve. There is also a deeper question at play: what this conflict reveals about the limits of American power, and the future of global trade routes.