Catastrophe Modeling Comes to California: How AI and Data Are Reshaping the State's Insurance Landscape
California's insurance market is undergoing a seismic transformation. As wildfires, floods, and other climate-related disasters grow more destructive, the state's long-standing approach to regulating insurance — rooted in 1980s-era policies — is being pushed to its limits.
In April 2024, the California Department of Insurance held a workshop on catastrophe modeling, a process that uses artificial intelligence, climate science, and data analytics to project future disaster risks. For the first time, state regulators and insurers discussed formally incorporating these tools into how home insurance rates are calculated.
Insurance industry expert Karl Susman, who testified at the workshop and later joined Spectrum News 1 for a detailed interview, helped clarify what catastrophe modeling really is — and what it means for consumers, regulators, and insurers. His insights reveal both the promise and the controversy behind this major policy shift.
The State's Breaking Point: Why Change Is Needed
Two more insurance carriers exited California in the week leading up to the Department of Insurance workshop — the latest in a string of withdrawals by major insurers like State Farm, Allstate, and Farmers. The reasons are familiar: rising wildfire losses, regulatory restrictions, and an inability to charge premiums that accurately reflect modern risk.
As Susman explained, "Many of the companies still writing policies in California are raising their prices and premiums." Those who remain are struggling under a system that, until now, has prevented the use of forward-looking data to model catastrophe exposure.
Unlike nearly every other state in the U.S., California law still forbids insurers from using catastrophe modeling to determine rates. They must base pricing on historical loss data — a method that increasingly fails to capture the reality of climate-driven disasters.
Catastrophe modeling seeks to correct this by allowing insurers to account for current and future conditions, such as worsening droughts, heat waves, and wildfire risks.
What Exactly Is Catastrophe Modeling?
Despite the technical name, catastrophe modeling — or "cat modeling" — is not new. "It's something that's been utilized across the world for years," Susman said. "It's used in insurance underwriting and rating in literally every state except for California."
At its core, catastrophe modeling merges science, engineering, statistics, and computer technology to predict the likelihood and potential cost of large-scale disasters.
Susman described it as a way to help both insurers and consumers "work more granularly to find out what their exact risk looks like." Rather than simply relying on regional averages, cat models evaluate specific factors such as: