In today's Focus on Politics podcast, Political Editor Jane Patterson and Health Correspondent Rowan Quinn examine New Zealand's ICU and health capacity as Covid-19 spreads, and elimination shifts to suppression.

"We want to be able to provide the standard of care that we're used to providing ... the other thing that I'm concerned for is even for business as usual we're shortstaffed from a nursing point of view" - ICU nurse Tania Mitchell

Doctors and nurses are at the pointiest end of Covid, caring for the sickest of the sick, people struggling to breathe, their organs maybe starting to fail.

In the height of the pandemic, it would seem logical that those working in intensive care units (ICU) would be first in line to get what they need to keep New Zealanders alive, but staffing those beds around the clock requires about five staff per bed, and New Zealand is 90 short right now.

Listen to the full podcast

As we head into the traffic light system, it's difficult to predict exactly how many cases there will be, how many hospitalisations and how many deaths.

The most recent modelling lays out the worst case scenario of 16,000 weekly cases, but senior health officials are playing down the likelihood of a sudden surge.

Vice president of the Australasian College of Intensive Care Rob Bevan says the group is meeting twice weekly with the Ministry of Health to try to lift ICU capacity.

"Intensive care bed numbers can be counted and reported in different ways ... the most meaningful would be the actual numbers of patients we can provide best ICU-level care to today with staff who are currently in post, and trained, and working."

He says a New Zealand Medical Journal (NZMJ) article concludes that number is 176 beds - 15 of them specialised paediatric beds.

"That number rises from 176 to 280 if we incorporate the 104 physical beds that are not staffed at this point. And there are many concerted efforts by DHBs supported by the ministry to close that gap, primarily with nursing staffing."

Read more:

Warnings mount over health system's ability to cope with more Covid-19 cases

Vaccine mandate: 'Incredible pressure' on remaining hospital staff

'Disaster waiting': Four ICU beds to 116,000 people

Healthcare, inflation concerns rise - survey

Minister of Health Andrew Little says 1400 nurses have been trained up to provide enough support to bring New Zealand's 289 ICU and high-dependency units up to 550.

However, College of Critical Care Nurses chair Tania Mitchell says the training is just a four-hour online module, with some DHBs also providing a few days practical training…

Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details