Investment Wars

Debate: How to Measure and Navigate Market Uncertainty

Featuring: Professor Nick Bloom is the William Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University, Senior Fellow at SIEPR, and Co-Director of the Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship Program at the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Uncertainty is one of the most critical—and elusive—forces shaping markets today. How is it measured? How does it affect economic and financial market behavior? And what strategies can help investors navigate periods of high uncertainty?  

On Wednesday, April 2nd — “Liberation Day” — President Trump announced sweeping tariffs targeting countries with which the U.S. has trade imbalances. The tariffs, which disproportionately affected key allies, sent markets into a tailspin. In just 48 hours, U.S. equity markets suffered the greatest two-day destruction of market wealth on record. But even more troubling were the developments in the bond market, which ultimately triggered a 90-day policy pause.   While the direct math of tariffs implies rising inflation and falling consumption—raising risks of a recession or worse—the more complex and destabilizing element is uncertainty.
 
In today’s episode, we explore:

• How uncertainty is measured
• Its real-world impact on the economy and financial markets
• Strategies for navigating uncertain market environments

Don’t miss our discussion of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes, co-developed by Professor Bloom and referenced throughout the episode.  

Subscribe to Investment Wars on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify to ensure you never miss an episode.

For guest opportunities or to share feedback, contact us at [email protected].

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: How Do I Select the “Right” ETF?

Featuring: Adam Patti is the Co-founder and CEO of Vistashares, an ETF issuer designed to provide pure exposure to disruptive technology-driven supercycles. He is an industry pioneer and insider with vast ETF development and construction knowledge.

There are at least 24 artificial intelligence-themed ETFs in the market. How can we differentiate one from the other and make an appropriate decision about which to buy? What factors should we be considering?

In today’s episode, we explore:

• A brief history of the ETF market
• How ETFs revolutionized the capability to achieve tailored exposure among other benefits
• Areas of focus when analyzing whether to buy an ETF

Subscribe to Investment Wars on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify to ensure you never miss an episode.

For guest opportunities or to share feedback, contact us at [email protected].

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: LA Fires - The Complexities of Insurance

Featuring: Jerry Theodorou is the Director of the Finance, Insurance, and Trade Policy Program at the R Street Institute, a public policy research organization. In this role, he develops and promotes free-market public policy solutions to complex issues involving federal and state government interventions.

In January, the LA area was ravaged by a series of devastating wildfires, notably the Palisades and Eaton Fires. Collectively there were over 16,000 structures destroyed, tens of thousands of evacuees, and 29 fatalities. Wildfires seem to be an annual event in California, destroying property and risking lives. 

In today’s episode, we explore:

• How the insurance industry has coped historically with catastrophes.
• The current state of insuring property in places with high risks of events like fire, hurricanes, and flooding.
• The future of the insurance industry. 

Subscribe to Investment Wars on YouTube, Apple Podcasts and Spotify to ensure you never miss an episode. 

For guest opportunities or to share feedback, contact us at [email protected].

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Innovation Episode - The Future of AI

Featuring: Tejas Dessai is a Director of Thematic Research at Global X. His research has been extensively covered in the tech and financial press, including the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, The Washington Post, and Reuters. 

This is a timely conversation given the recent major release of DeepSeek V3 which upended the world of AI given its leap in efficiency – the claim is that it essentially matches the best available US models while being 20 – 50x cheaper to use. In this episode, Tejas and I have a broad conversation about AI and how it will affect the world, the economy, and the financial market going forward.

We regularly reference Global X’s fantastic Charting Disruptions Outlook for 2025 and Beyond. 

Topics Include:

• America’s position in the global race to lead on AI
• The ecosystem supporting AI
• Implications on various industries and jobs given the continued growth of AI 

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Will the Fed Cut Rates in 2025?  

Featuring: JoAnne Bianco, CFA is a Partner and Senior Investment Strategist at BondBloxx. Bondbloxx is the first ETF issuer to focus solely on providing precision tools in managing exposures within Fixed Income Markets. Prior to joining Bondbloxx, JoAnne was a Senior Portfolio Manager at PPM as well as Director of Corporate Bond Research. She has over thirty years of relevant fixed income experience.    

This is a timely conversation in understanding some of the economic characteristics the Fed reviews as well as the many moving pieces globally that affect inflation, jobs, and the economy in general.  

Topics Include:

• How a Fed cut affects the economy and financial markets
• A review of inflation concerns
• An outlook on financial markets including expectations of Fed actions in 2025

Link: BondBloxx 2025 Fixed Income Market Outlook provided by JoAnne Bianco

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Are We Entering a New Golden Age of US Manufacturing?  

Featuring: Chris Semenuk is a fund manager at Tema ETFs where he is currently focusing on the theme of American Reshoring as captured in the American Reshoring ETF (Ticker: RSHO). Prior, Chris was with TIAA where he was a portfolio manager for a $5 billion equities mutual fund.  

The decision of where to place the next factory has become more complex as the cost in China and other global manufacturing hubs has increased dramatically as have the geopolitical risks. In this episode, we discuss how this story has evolved over the last twenty years before digging into the realities in the US, China, and globally as related to manufacturing.  

Topics Include:

• How the US is now competitive in areas of manufacturing
• Increasing risks of global logistics (e.g., piracy, climate)
• Government intervention through subsidies (e.g., CHIPs Act) and tariffs

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Should We Invest in China?  

Featuring: Brendan Ahern, the Chief Investment Officer at KraneShares. He is a preeminent expert in global financial markets with a particular focus on China.  

China is considered the second largest economy in the world behind the US yet represents less than 5% of a typical diversified global equity exposure as compared to over 50% for the US. In this episode, we dive into the current state of the Chinese economy.  

Topics Include:

• A quick review of the rich history of China up to the present day
• How demographics and urbanization have affected growth
• A deep dive into the real estate sector given recent stresses

Please also check out China Last Night, a daily newsletter published by KraneShares and spearheaded by Brendan Ahern.  

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Why Are Interest Rates Now Declining?  

Featuring: Lara Rhame, the Chief U.S. Economist and Managing Director on the Investment Research Team at FS Investments.  

Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered the Federal Funds rate by 0.50%. This was the first decrease in rates in over two years, reflecting the start of an “easing” cycle. We explore what major market characteristics the Fed reviews in coming to their decision, and how this decision may affect yields both generally and to the economy as a whole.  

Topics Include:

• What is “maximum employment” and why do we aim for a 2% inflation rate?
• The dangers of spiraling inflation or disinflation
• The potential for a normalized curve

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: What Will Jobs Look Like in 2040?  

Featuring: Stephanie Aliaga, a Global Market Strategist with JP Morgan Asset Management assisting in formulating and communicating economic views, delivering timely commentary and maintaining forecasting models on behalf of JP Morgan. Additionally, Stephanie is on the committee that produces the long-term capital market assumptions underpinning JP Morgan’s strategic asset allocation process.  

Please note JP Morgan’s AI Hub which further details some of the ways AI will affect the future of jobs, a discussion point on our podcast.  

Last month, the Labor Department reduced its original estimate of jobs added in the prior year by 800,000! We explore why the large reduction as well as how many jobs adds are actually needed to maintain a humming economy prior to shifting focus on some of the characteristics affecting today’s job market. We further explore how innovations may change the look and feel of future jobs.  

Topics include:

• Demographics and immigrations effect on net new jobs.
• AI and Robotics and what is in store for productivity.
• The state of jobs in 2040.

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: NEW JERSEY! Is NJ a Bellwether for What Lies Ahead for the US in a Complex and Changing World?

Featuring: John Hasse, Professor of Geography at Rowan University, Director of the Geospatial Research Lab, and Director of the Community and Environmental Planning Program.

New Jersey, the most dense state in the US, features 127 miles of coast, deep ports beneficial for shipping, prime agricultural soils, highlands, ridges and valleys. We explore how the “big history” of New Jersey affects its planning and its economy. And how what happens in New Jersey is both a microcosm of and a leading indicator for the future of the United States.  

Topics include:

• How NJ geography affects the use of the land
• Urbanization and re-urbanization
• Areas where NJ leads the country

We reference www.njmap2.com in this podcast. 

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.