Investment Wars

Debate: The Upcoming Election: Will the Winner Materially Affect Market Performance in the Near Term?

Featuring: Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group.  

40% of the population will be devastated come November 5th as their (hopefully) voted for president-elect loses. While we emphasize and are saddened by the polarization in our political system, we explore how much our next president actually affects near term financial market performance.  

Topics include:

• Where our political parties align (e.g., China!) and expected effects on the market.
• Where our political parties diverge (e.g., Social services and regulation) and expected effects on the market.
• A case study using Apple as proxy for expected affects on revenues, cost and sentiment.

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: How Demographics May Affect Future Interest Rate and Debt Levels  

Featuring: James Meyers, CFA, Principal and Portfolio Strategist for Prudential Group Investment Management (PGIM) Fixed Income.   

We discuss how shifting demographics (i.e. America is getting older!) will affect pretty much everything in our economy inclusive of productivity, tax rates, debt levels and interest rates. When a population ages, you simply have fewer people relative to the population able to participate in the workforce which puts pressure on all of society. Will innovation and further general advancements in technology allow us to mitigate these risks or are we heading into a lower-growth, more expensive environment?    

Topics include:

• How aging demographics affected other developed countries, notably Japan
• How a shift in demographics affects tax, consumer spend and government assistance
• Mitigating age through productivity and immigration

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Will the Crypto Ecosystem Disrupt Both Fiat Currency and Digital Technologies?

Featuring: David LaValle, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of ETFs at Grayscale Investments, the world’s largest digital currency asset manager.  

We discuss how cryptocurrencies may live side by side with a fiat currency like the US Dollar or the Nigerian Naira to use an example of a weaker currency and financial system and how one may think through elements of the crypto ecosystem such as currencies, smart contracts, and financial systems.  

Topics include:

• What just happened in Nigeria! And why?
• Are cryptocurrencies a storer of value, a type of currency or both?
• Crypto basics
• Disruptive technology and future innovation

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Will the Fed Really Cut Rates Three Times this Year?  

Featuring: Michael Shaoul, Chairman, Portfolio Manager and CEO of Marketfield Asset Management, an asset manager specializing in global macro investing.  

Macro investing focuses on an in-depth analysis of the economic, monetary and credit environments in assessing what markets and products to have exposure to. Using this context, one can better appreciate what it means to have set interest rates and how differing factors may contribute to headline inflation.  

Topics Include:

• The potential dangers of lowering federal fund rates too fast
• How the economy is currently faring
• Warning signs in certain sectors of the markets

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Do Recent Disruptions in the Real Estate Sector Create Opportunity in 2024?  

Featuring: Lauren Hochfelder, Co-Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing (“MSREI”) and Head of MSREI Americas, one of the longest-tenured real estate investment management businesses, with a number of offerings across the risk spectrum.

The Real Estate sector has experienced one disruption after another as Covid ravaged the commercial office building sector quickly followed by supply chain issues, increasing inflation and finally significantly higher borrowing costs affecting the values of property across America. We are privileged to have Lauren Hochfelder on the show to help navigate this complicated story and uncover potential opportunities.  

Topics Include:

• Did Covid permanently change or simply speed up secular trends?
• Is commercial office space going the way of the mall or is there more nuance here?
• What exactly constitutes “commercial” retail nowadays?
• How does reshoring/onshoring affect the real estate markets?
• Effects of E-delivery and logistics?
• What are the millennials going to do?
• Is there truth in the impending “debt maturity wall”?
• Do high yields and general disruption spell gloom or opportunity?

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Will Robots Take over the World?!

Featuring: Zeno Mercer, an expert on Robotics with VettaFi RoboGlobal Indexes. Zeno is an Investor & Researcher in Robotics, AI & Healthcare.

Amazon may have more robot “workers” than human ones. Robots are increasingly replacing humans on factory floors given upgrades in their technologies. Furthermore, robots may be an integral part of the answer to current and potential continuous labor shortages as reshoring occurs (note Episode 14) given recent geopolitical tensions and increased government spend in infrastructure and manufacturing.

Topics Include:

• What distinguishes a robot from a tool or machine.
• A review of the last few generations or robots and what is to come.
• The incredible dexterity that robots now have.
• How automation, AI and robots create the tools to accomplish almost anything robotically over the near future.
• Can robots take over the world?

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: How Strong Is the Trend Towards Reshoring of Manufacturing?

Featuring: Chris Semenuk, Investment Partner with Tema ETFs.

Is the trend towards reshoring due to recent stresses to the global supply chain or a trend that has been occurring regardless and now simply accelerating due to geopolitical considerations? One may be surprised at conclusions drawn.

Topics include:

• Broad overview leading to current globalized trade
• Highlighted vulnerabilities within the supply chain
• The reality of when the onshoring trend actually began
• The changing equation of Total Cost of Ownership as applies to produced goods

Referenced Speech: The Biden administration’s international economic agenda: A conversation with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan | Brookings

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Special Episode: An Insider View of Disruption within the Auto Industry

Featuring: Dr. Philip Koehn, who has over two decades of experience in the Luxury auto industry, formerly as Managing Director of Jaguar and prior as Chief Engineering Director for Rolls Royce Motors.

Some topics covered include:

• Advantages and disadvantages of Electric Drive vs. the Combustion Engine
• How technology plays a role in upstarts vs incumbents
• China’s adventures in EV – can they compete?
• The future of autonomous vehicles

Happy Holidays from the Investment Wars Team!

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: Is Commercial Real Estate a Risk or Opportunity?

Featuring: Burl East, Portfolio Manager and Chief Executive Officer of American Assets Capital Advisers to speak with us about Real Estate.

Markets have priced in a significant decline in the commercial office space sector due primarily to the twin threats of the hybrid work environment and increased interest rates. Will office space go the way of the mall? Do these operator’s have the necessary interest coverage? And who are the winners and losers in the commercial space?

Additionally, Burl and I delve into other areas of the real estate market, including cell towers, industrial, and RV parks as real estate is so much more than simply office buildings and residential.

Topics include:

• Commercial real estate, commercial office towers, cell towers, industrial real estate, interest rates, hybrid work, interest coverage

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.

Debate: "Will the US Have a Deep Recession?"

Featuring: Victoria Vogel, CFA, Senior Vice President and Product Specialist for Fixed Income at Trust Company of the West (TCW).

Simply stated, interest rates have increased 5.25% over the last 20 months which will place pressures on the consumer and business alike. Savings rates are at multi-decade highs as are credit card delinquencies with job growth and wages further diminishing. Learn more about some of the negative characteristics in the markets today that may spell a deeper recession than the street is expecting.

It is worth listening to this podcast AND the prior podcast where we spoke about whether the US would have a MILD recession in order to better appreciate some of the nuances driving the market.

In this podcast, our host, Joe Halpern, CIO of Fountainhead Asset Management has a wide ranging conversation with Victoria Vogel on the positives and negatives of today’s economy and what that may mean for a potential recession down the road.

Topics include:

• State of the economy
• Jobs and wages
• Balance sheet of consumers and corporations

Never miss an episode — subscribe to Investment Wars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

For inquiries: [email protected]

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE: Obsidian CIO sponsors the podcast to further education and critical thinking about the factors that affect markets and investing, and the podcast does not provide investment advice. Investment advice is offered only to clients of Obsidian CIO who have entered into an advisory agreement and with whom Obsidian CIO has identified individual objectives, risk tolerance, and other investment needs.