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News of the day for April 16, 2026

Stock futures are slightly higher this morning after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at record highs on Wednesday; oil prices are rising again as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, with Pakistani officials looking to schedule a second round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran; Netflix is scheduled to release quarterly results after the closing bell today, its first report since abandoning plans to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery; Spirit Airlines is reportedly considering liquidation as high fuel prices caused by the Iran war threaten the discount airline's bankruptcy restructuring plan; and PepsiCo topped Wall Street's earnings estimates thanks to solid international sales growth. Here's what you need to know today.

Stock futures are ticking higher this morning as investors await news on peace talks to end the Iran war. Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which each hit record highs on Wednesday, were recently up 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were also up 0.1%. The stock market has rallied in recent weeks—the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite enters today's session on an 11-session winning streak—as investors have started to shift their focus from the war in Iran to the strength of corporate earnings. Oil futures were up less than 1% (more on that below), while gold futures rose slightly to $4,840 an ounce. Bitcoin, which has traded in a narrow range the past few days after rallying the previous two weeks, was at $74,400. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which affects interest rates on all sorts of consumer loans, was little changed at 4.27%.

Crude oil prices are slightly higher as the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports continues, while Iran has threatened to attack other ports in the Gulf or disrupt trade in other ways. West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, were up 0.5% at $91.70 per barrel recently, while Brent futures, the international standard, added roughly 1% to nearly $96 per barrel. Pakistani officials continue to act as mediators in the conflict, reportedly working to schedule a second round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran after talks last weekend ended without a deal. The two-week ceasefire that sparked a market rally when it was announced last week is set to expire next Wednesday, with mediators looking to schedule talks or get the sides to agree to an extended ceasefire before then.

Netflix (NFLX) is scheduled to report first-quarter results after the market closes today. This will be the streaming giant's first quarterly report since dropping its pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) in February, when it refused to lift its offer to match Paramount Skydance (PSKY). Netflix is expected to report revenue and profit growth of at least 15% year-over-year, while a price increase announced last month is expected to help boost revenue over the rest of this year. Analysts have said they expect Netflix to find new ways to use its capital—such as investing it in content and returning it to shareholders—now that it is no longer planning to spend billions on the Warner Bros. deal. Netflix shares were holding steady in premarket trading.

Spirit Airlines could be headed towards a liquidation as surging fuel costs caused by the Iran war are pressuring the company, which is still operating while navigating the Chapter 11 bankruptcy process, Bloomberg reported. Spirit filed for bankruptcy last August, its second such filing in a year, after exiting its first bankruptcy restructuring months earlier in March. Spirit had reached a deal with its creditors to cut costs and eliminate billions in dollars of debt and said it expected to exit the Chapter 11 process this summer. Now, the airline could decide to liquidate as soon as this week, Bloomberg reported. Airlines across the industry have lifted ticket prices and fees to offset the rising fuel costs caused by the war.

PepsiCo (PEP) beat Wall Street estimates in its latest quarterly results this morning. The beverage and snack food giant reported first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.61 per share on $19.44 billion in revenue, each up about 9% year-over-year and above the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. CEO Ramon Laguarta touted the "resilience" of PepsiCo's international business, as the company reported revenue growth in all of its segments and regions in the quarter. PepsiCo shares were up about 1% ahead of the opening bell.

• Tesla shares popped Wednesday after CEO Elon Musk touted advances in the company's latest chips on social media.
• Musk has previously suggested the chips will be critical to supporting Tesla's autonomous vehicles, robots, and data centers.

It's been a while since investors got this excited about one of Elon Musk's social media posts.

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) popped nearly 8% Wednesday—it was one of the S&P 500's best performers on a good day for markets—after CEO Elon Musk touted advances in the company's latest chips on social media. It was the best day for the electric vehicle maker's stock since last June, when the company started testing its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas.

In the post, Musk congratulated his team on reaching the last step before mass production of Tesla's AI5 chip and said there are more "other exciting chips" on the way. The AI5 chip is expected to be used for AI applications in Tesla vehicles, Optimus humanoid robots, and data centers.

Congrats to the @Tesla_AI chip design team on taping out AI5!

AI6, Dojo3 & other exciting chips in work. pic.twitter.com/hm54TdIzBx

Back in January, Musk had told investors during the company's fourth-quarter earnings call that he viewed completing the AI5 chip as "arguably the number one most critical thing to get done" and that he was "spending more time on that than currently anything else at Tesla," according to a transcript provided by AlphaSense.

Musk has suggested that the AI5 could be "40 times better" than its predecessor, the AI4, and that developing its new chips will be key to supporting the company's future lines of business focused on physical AI—that is, AI that powers products and services used in the physical world.

The stock has climbed over the past week, with shares up some 13% since chipmaker Intel (INTC) said last Tuesday that it would join plans for a terafab in Austin to help Musk's Tesla, SpaceX and xAI meet their chip needs.

Tesla likely also got a boost today from news that analysts at UBS on Monday upgraded the shares to a neutral rating from sell. Their price target, $342, is below the Street's consensus, according to Visible Alpha data.

Still, the shares are down about 13% for the year so far and 20% off December's highs.

• The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report showed that people around the country are filled with uncertainty about the outcome of the Iran war.
• The uncertainty is complicating long-term planning for businesses, potentially delaying hiring and expansion plans.
• The fresh wave of uncertainty adds to that already created by tariffs last year.

No matter what your place in the economy, chances are you're contending with uncertainty about how the Iran war will end, and when the energy crisis it sparked will subside.

That's the takeaway from the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book," a compilation of anecdotal observations from around the country published Wednesday. The report was filled with references to people being "uncertain" about the Iran war, when it will end for good, and what impact it will have on the economy.

"The conflict in the Middle East was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture," the report said.

Greater uncertainty usually leads to slower economic growth and a weaker job market, raising the risks of an economic slowdown.

The report provided a snapshot of the war's impact through April 6, the day before the two sides agreed to a temporary ceasefire. Although the truce has sparked optimism in financial markets that the conflict will end swiftly, sea traffic remains blocked in the crucial Strait of Hormuz, putting upward pressure on oil and other commodities shipped from the Persian Gulf.

"In a world of so much uncertainty, the anecdotal data the Fed collects from businesses and workers across the nation may be as important as ever," Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary. "The overwhelming message this spring to the Fed is that American businesses and consumers are nervous and waiting to see what happens with the war, gas prices and other critical supplies."

Economists generally consider uncertainty to be a drag on the economy, regardless of its source, because it causes businesses to delay hiring and expansion plans and for consumers to hold off on spending to see how things will turn out.

Last year, President Donald Trump's unpredictable tariff campaign caused a wave of uncertainty. Indeed, the import taxes were cited in the latest beige book as a factor clouding the outlook, though they took a back seat this time to the Iran war.

Another theme in the report was the increasing disparity between lower and higher-income households, especially because those with lower incomes have been hit harder by the surge in gasoline prices.

"Many Districts continued to report signs of consumer financial strain, increased price sensitivity, and rising demand at food banks and other social service organizations, while spending among higher-income consumers was resilient," the report said.

• A rule that labels frequent traders and requires them to have a minimum of $25,000 in their margin accounts will soon be eliminated, which bodes well for broker dealers.
• Shares of likely beneficiary Robinhood was among the S&P 500's biggest gainers on Wednesday.

A federal regulator just gave investors who buy and sell frequently its blessing to trade, with one less rule to worry about—and the news is lifting the stocks of companies that could benefit.

The Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday granted approval to eliminate the "pattern day trader" label, which triggers financial requirements—at least $25,000 in net equity in margin accounts, or be shut out of opening new positions—some investors characterized as onerous and unfair to some who made four or more day trades in a margin account within five business days. Retail investors who submitted comments to the SEC asking the regulator to approve of the elimination of the designation and the requirements that come with it said the existing rule established "discriminatory wealth-based thresholds," "fear based decision making," and has led to "higher stress."

Now that the SEC has given the nod, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, or FINRA, will replace the requirement with intraday margin provisions that would let broker-dealers use real-time monitoring to decide when enough was enough, doing away with a rule  put in place shortly after the Dotcom Bubble burst. Shares of Robinhood (HOOD), a likely beneficiary, were the S&P 500's biggest gainers on Wednesday; Webull's (BULL) shares were up some 11%. The brokerages, as well as others, welcomed the rule change, but those who trade will have to wait for a few things to happen before it goes into effect.

Individual investors in margin accounts who previously counted the number of trades they were making to avoid triggering the "pattern day trader" requirement won't have to monitor their buying and selling activity as much as before.

First, the SEC has to make it official by posting the rule change in the Federal Register. After that, FINRA has to post a regulatory notice in which it provides an effective date—often 30 days after the publication of a notice. Broker dealers, meanwhile, will need to enable those changes on their respective platforms, which will likely follow shortly after the effective date.

Webull's US chief Anthony Denier said the change is "better" for the firm's clients, who would complain about account restrictions. "The balance was arbitrarily set at $25,000," he said in an interview with Investopedia, saying that requiring a sum of money retail investors "don't have most of the time" makes for a "very bad experience."

Robinhood's chief brokerage officer Steve Quirk said in a statement: "FINRA's updates to pattern day trading requirements are a significant step forward in empowering retail investors."

Supports of the rule said it was a useful protection for less-experienced investors who might be less cautious in taking on potentially damaging degrees of risk.

• American Eagle shares rose more 7% after launching a new ad campaign featuring Sydney Sweeney.

• The company shares have had an eventful and, on the whole, positive year.

Can Sydney Sweeney prompt another pop in denim sales? American Eagle investors hope so.

Shares of American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) were recently up more than 7% after the retailer announced an advertising campaign with the actress Wednesday morning. The jean shorts promo comes days after HBO released the third season of Euphoria, the show that catapulted Sweeney to fame in 2019 and which continues to inspire style guides, makeup tutorials and cultural commentary.

Some analysts expect denim sales to rise as offices adopt more casual dress codes. It remains to be seen whether more relaxed attitudes will extend to shorts.

Today's move extends what's been an eventful and generally positive year for the stock thanks in large part to a prior promo called "Sydney Sweeney has Great Jeans." The shares were recently trading for over $19—more than 80% above where they were a year ago, but down about a third from a recent peak above $20 in early January. Now investors are once again weighing whether the latest campaign can continue to lift the shares at a moment when investor appetite for hot trades appears particularly strong.

The initial Sweeney ad helped shares recover from a slump last spring. Customers were spooked by tariffs, inflation and government spending cuts, and consequently, spending less, American Eagle said. The first round of denim ads, released in August, boosted sales and generated buzz. The conversation heated up as critics claimed the campaign was hyper-sexual and referenced discriminatory ideas; the president weighed in, calling it the "'HOTTEST' ad out there."

Investors grew confident the rally could last when sales improved for the retailer’s loungewear line, which wasn’t promoted by Sweeney, and results came in above expectations in December. Still, shares have tumbled some since March, when an earnings report appears to have tempered enthusiasm for both American Eagle and meme stocks broadly.

Analysts are somewhat divided on the stock. About half of those who follow American Eagle and were polled by Visible Alpha gave it a “hold” rating, with others issuing “sell” and “buy” ratings. Analysts generally see shares climbing another 25% to nearly $24, according to an average analyst price estimate from Visible Alpha. 

• IonQ, D-Wave, Rigetti and other quantum stocks are rallying after Nvidia announced its latest AI models.
• The AI chip giant on Tuesday held a Quantum Day event where it showcased a new family of AI models designed for quantum computing tasks.

Quantum computing stocks are rallying Wednesday, with a bit of help from AI chip leader Nvidia.

Shares of Nvidia partners IonQ (IONQ) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) were up 17% and 11%, respectively, in recent trading, after Nvidia (NVDA) on Tuesday announced a new family of AI models called Ising designed for quantum computing tasks. Other quantum computing stocks, including Quantum Computing (QUBT) D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), also gained. Nvidia shares were little changed.

Nvidia said its new models can help correct errors created during the quantum computing process faster and more accurately than existing methods.

Nvidia expanding its efforts in the quantum computing space could improve sentiment surrounding quantum computing stocks that took a hit in recent months, amid a broader pullback in many AI-related stocks.

Citi analysts said following the event that some of Nvidia's partners, such as Infleqtion (INFQ), are already using and seeing benefits from the new AI models. Infleqtion's stock, which the analysts initiated coverage of with a "buy" rating, jumped 6% before paring back some of its gains.

Despite their recent advance, shares of D-Wave, Rigetti, Quantum Computing, IonQ, and Infleqtion are still in negative territory for the year.

• Social media company Snap announced it would lay off 16% of its workforce on Wednesday as it embraces AI in its pursuit of profitability.
• AI's long-term impact on the job market is still unclear, but research suggests the technology is killing fewer job cuts than many think while also blocking many college graduates from entering the workforce.

AI strikes again.

Snap (SNAP) on Wednesday announced it was laying off 16% of its workforce, or about 1,000 employees, as it pursues profitability with more than a little help from AI. The Snapchat-parent said it expects to save $500 million a year as a result of the cuts. 

“Last fall, I described Snap as facing a crucible moment, requiring a new way of working that is faster and more efficient, while pivoting towards profitable growth,” wrote CEO Evan Spiegel in a letter to employees. “We believe that rapid advancements in artificial intelligence enable our teams to reduce repetitive work, increase velocity, and better support our community, partners, and advertisers.”

The company said in an investor update Wednesday that more than 65% of its new code is AI-generated, and AI agents have found more than 7,500 bugs in its code. Using AI to write and review code “free[s] up teams to concentrate on higher-value work and highest-priority strategic initiatives,” the update said.

Prognostications of AI's impact on the labor market run the gamut from apocalyptic to utopian. Existing data suggests the technology is not uniformly negative for job seekers, but it likely has made it more difficult for many college graduates to enter the workforce.

Snap joins a long list of tech companies that have cited AI-driven efficiencies and the need to increase AI investments when announcing big layoffs.

This year, Amazon, Meta and Oracle have all undertaken layoffs ranging from 1,500 positions at Meta to an estimated 30,000 at Oracle. All three companies are spending huge sums, and much more than they did last year, on artificial intelligence infrastructure to support AI workloads. (A new competitor entered the ring on Wednesday when defunct shoemaker Allbirds (BIRD) announced its pivot to AI compute infrastructure, “with a long-term vision to become a fully integrated GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS) and AI-native cloud solutions provider.”)

Studies, however, suggest layoff announcements may overstate AI’s role. Researchers at the Yale Budget Lab found last year that AI adoption had not caused “a discernible disruption” to the labor market since ChatGPT’s release in 2022. AI was blamed for about 55,000, or 4.5%, of the 1.2 million job cuts announced last year, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. By contrast, nearly 300,000 cuts were attributed to the Department of Government Efficiency and 250,000 to “market/economic conditions.”

Some researchers attribute the disconnect between AI’s perceived and measured impact to “AI-washing,” in which companies attribute layoffs to AI rather than mismanagement or a faltering business. They argue AI-washing allows management to frame job cuts as an unfortunate byproduct of improved efficiency that, down the line, should equate to more profit. 

Studies also suggest that AI implementation isn’t exclusively negative for job seekers. According to a recent Gallup poll, small companies that have implemented AI are increasing headcount at a higher rate than decreasing it. Large employers were marginally more likely to cut jobs than add them amid AI implementation (33% vs. 30%).

Granted, while AI isn’t booting workers from their jobs en masse, it may be blocking workers from getting jobs. The job finding rate among young labor force entrants in professions highly exposed to AI has declined by three percentage points since November 2022, according to a recent study by the Dallas Fed. Moderately AI-exposed professions have seen a smaller decline, while young workers in low AI-exposure jobs are having just as much luck finding jobs today as they were in late 2022. “Looking at past business cycles, the data confirm this isn’t a typical cyclical phenomenon,” the researchers wrote. 

• Tariffs were responsible for the 3.1% year-over-year increase in core goods prices in February, a Fed analysis found.
• Before the pandemic, core goods (products rather than services, excluding food and energy) fell slowly but surely every year.
• The analysis highlights the significant impact tariffs have had on inflation.

Imagine, if you will, a world where instead of getting relentlessly more expensive, the prices on the products you bought fell over time, slowly but surely.

That may sound far-fetched these days, but that's generally how it went before the pandemic, and how things would have gone in 2025 had President Donald Trump not imposed sweeping tariffs on nearly every U.S. trading partner.

At least, that's according to an analysis released last week by economists at the Federal Reserve, who found that the import taxes pushed up "core goods" prices—that is, for physical products as opposed to services, excluding the volatile prices for food and energy—up 3.1% in the 12 months through February 2026. Before the pandemic, core goods prices tended to fall by about 1% per year on average.

The research underscores the significant impact of tariffs on the economy and international trade, showing how they have raised consumer prices.

The paper, which analyzed prices as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, found that tariffs pushed up the core PCE index 0.8%, lifting it to a 3% annual increase as of February, well above the Fed's goal of a 2% annual increase.

Given that core inflation was below 2.8% for much of 2025, the study suggests it would have hit the Fed's goal by now if not for the tariffs. Instead, inflation has run above target since 2021, proving a persistent thorn in the side of household budgets as well as the Fed policymakers struggling to keep inflation in check with monetary policy.

The Fed study found tariffs made their way into prices "dollar-for-dollar" after seven months, as importers who paid the duties passed the cost on down the supply chain.

The report added to a growing pile of studies that found the tariffs of 2025 have dealt a setback to the economy. Previous research by the Fed and other organizations has found that tariffs have increased household expenses because merchants have passed most of their costs on to consumers, with U.S.-based companies absorbing some of the costs.

Trump and supporters of the import taxes say they are meant to encourage U.S.-based manufacturing and bring back factory jobs, although manufacturing employment has declined nearly every month since they were introduced.

While the country-level tariffs levied more than a year ago have broadly been blocked by the Supreme Court, the administration says it's just a temporary reprieve from the import taxes. On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that similar tariffs will be put into place under different legal authority by the beginning of July.

Take a Number: A Striking Figure in Economic News Today

• Saving lives by curing cancer would return staggering benefits to the U.S. economy, if measured in dollars.
• Eliminating cancer deaths would represent an economic value of $41,684 per U.S. household per year, or $197 trillion over 35 years.
• The research suggests that funding cancer research and encouraging pharmaceutical companies to develop cures could have outsized returns on investment, even if costly in the short term.

If you're looking for a return on investment that pays out to everyone rather than just the investor, few might be better than cancer research.

That's according to a paper published this week by researchers at the University of Chicago and the National Bureau of Economic Research showing that the economic value of the lives saved from a cure for cancer would amount to $41,684 per U.S. household per year, or $197 trillion total over 35 years.

To reach that figure, the researchers estimated how many years cancer cuts short American lives, then multiplied by $580,000, the value the federal government assigns to a year of human life when writing environmental regulations. They also adjusted for inflation and other factors.

By valuing human life rather than counting only dollars changing hands, the economists concluded cancer research would deliver an enormous return on investment.

"For a breast cancer patient who dies at age 45 rather than living to age 75, this implies a loss of 30 life years," the researchers, led by economist Tomas J. Philipson, wrote. "Using U.S. federal government valuations, this implies a loss in value of 30 x $580,000, totaling $17.4 million."

If the calculations are even close to right, the U.S. should be spending far more on cancer research, purely on economic grounds. Assuming a cancer-curing research program would cost $500 billion to $900 billion, the return would be anywhere between 570% and 1,024%, they found. For comparison, the federal government budgeted $7.35 billion for fiscal year 2026 on cancer research through the National Cancer Institute.

"Given the significant economic value of reducing cancer mortality, the long-run returns to pharmaceutical innovation dwarf any short-term savings from attempts to hold down prices through price controls or other means," the researchers wrote. "The trillions in potential benefits from eliminating cancer mortality mean that investing in cancer innovation is among the highest-return investments society could make."

• Market experts say the latest recovery for stocks, which now has indexes at new highs, has been more fast-paced than the bounce following last year's Liberation Day.
• "So as far as the stock market is concerned, the war is over until further notice," Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni said.

Stocks are aloft—and on the climb.

The momentum trade would appear to be back, lifted by the sense that investors can put the worst effects of the conflict in Iran out of mind. The biggest companies in the benchmark S&P 500— the index set new intraday and closing highs—are leading the way: The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) rose more than 11% since the top of April through Wednesday's close, outpacing the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Fund (RSP), a fund that holds equal shares of the S&P constituents, as well as the market-cap weighted State Street SPDR S&P 500 (SPY). That has driven U.S. stocks back into positive territory for the year. The Nasdaq posted a record close.

"So as far as the stock market is concerned, the war is over until further notice," according to Yardeni Research's Ed Yardeni and team.

Fear held major U.S. stock indexes in a holding pattern since the start of the war in Iran. But though the fighting is far from over, investors are for now putting geopolitical uncertainty in the rearview mirror.

Investors appear to be downplaying the geopolitical uncertainty. The fear gauge also known as the CBOE VIX, the U.S. Dollar Index, and crude oil futures extended their declines as of Wednesday's close. Stock market experts see near-term upside as earnings season rolls along, though some CEOs and bond investors are keeping an eye on risks that threaten to derail the good vibes.

But the euphoria is unmistakable. The dramatic nature of the latest market recovery bests the post-Liberation Day bounce, according to Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen, who noted that the S&P 500 is up almost 10% over the last 10 sessions. "We haven't seen a run of gains that quick" since the the post-Covid rally in April 2020, he said. It has also spilled into smaller stocks, like the former shoe company-turned-AI-infrastructure play that is rocketing higher today.

U.S. stocks stand to climb even higher if investors reward companies that handily beat Street earnings estimates. "The last two US financial reporting seasons for the S&P 500 have been lackluster, failing to match the long run average of +7 percent upside earnings beats versus estimates," DataTrek's Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe wrote in a note Tuesday evening, saying first-quarter reports should "meet this benchmark and provide the foundation for a continued rally."

Some investors are staying cautious, noting that questions about energy prices, the job market, trade and other factors remain in place. "The combination of heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty feels unprecedented to us," the team behind the Osterweis Strategic Income Fund (OSTIX) wrote in their latest quarterly outlook. "Thus, we are sticking with our defensive posture until some of these crosscurrents resolve themselves."

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect the close of trading.