Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

Shares of Allbirds, for years known as a shoe company, are flying today.
Credit: Photo by Smith Collection / Gado / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Shares of Allbirds, once known for shoes, are soaring on news of a pivot to AI infrastructure.
• The move highlights return to investor optimism that has stocks, especially tech shares, rising lately.

There are undoubtedly more significant things going on in markets these days—war-driven oil-price fluctuations, earnings, the prospect of Fed action later this month—but a non-zero amount of attention is currently going to the birds.

That, specifically, means the news that Allbirds (BIRD)—known for shoes that for a time seemed ubiquitous in Silicon Valley, and on the feet of those who sought to co-opt its aesthetic—has, in a manner befitting a footwear maker, pivoted. A financing deal announced earlier today, the company said, will help it turn its business "to AI compute infrastructure, with a long-term vision to become a fully integrated GPU-as-a-Service and AI-native cloud solutions provider." (The company, a press release notes, "anticipates changing its name to 'NewBird AI.'")

Today's news follows the late-March announcement that Allbirds was getting out of the shoe game, selling its IP for $39 million to the company that handles brands like Ed Hardy, Born and Ecko Unltd.

Investors have seized the moment to send shares of Allbirds skyward today: The stock, which closed yesterday at about $2.50 per share, recently changed hands above $20, a level it hasn't seen in years.

Some of that likely reflects enthusiasm for the company's move into a sector seen as the big growth opportunity of the moment, even if an unlikely one for a company until recently known for footwear—and for a loss of market value valued in the billions of dollars down to levels measured in the tens of millions. Such moves aren't unprecedented: Iren (IREN), for example, swapped its focus from bitcoin mining to AI cloud services. Other companies have in years past made their own pivots—to crypto, for example. 

But it also points to a renewed appetite for risk, with investor optimism lifting stocks toward highs, pulling the tech-focused Nasdaq in particular steadily upward, and feeding a hunger for quick action. All's well, it seems, that birds well.

President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell have clashed since Trump took office for his second term.
Credit: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• President Donald Trump renewed his threats to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, escalating a conflict over the central bank's independence from White House control.
• Trump has criticized Powell for not lowering the central bank's key interest rate enough, and for allegedly mismanaging a renovation of the Fed's headquarters.
• Economists say if Trump is allowed to fire Powell at will, the central bank's independence will be thrown into doubt, reducing its credibility and ability to control inflation.

President Donald Trump renewed his threats to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and said his Justice Department would not drop an investigation of him, entrenching his position in the power struggle between the White House and the central bank.

The escalation of the long-running conflict between Trump and the top banker came in an interview aired Wednesday on Fox Business. Trump responded to Powell's statements last month that he would not leave his post as a member of the Fed's board of governors until a criminal probe over alleged cost overruns in a renovation of the Fed's headquarters was completely dropped.

"Then, I'll have to fire him," Trump said in response to a question from Maria Bartiromo. "If he's not leaving on time—I've held back firing him. I've wanted to fire him, but I hate to be controversial."

What This Means For The Economy

Fed Chair Powell's supporters say ousting him would deal a blow to the Federal Reserve's independence, damaging its credibility and its central mission to control inflation through monetary policy.

Trump's comments intensified a standoff between the two leaders as Powell's term as Fed chair nears its end.

Trump has repeatedly demanded that Powell sharply reduce the central bank's key interest rate. Powell and other policymakers at the Fed lowered the fed funds rate cautiously last year. The central bank has not lowered rates at all so far this year.

Trump has frequently threatened to fire Powell. Such a move would likely spark a legal battle, since Congress established the Fed to be outside the White House's control and allows the president to fire Fed officials only "for cause." Powell has said Trump does not have the authority to remove him.

Powell's term as Fed chair expires in May, but he could remain on the Fed's board of governors until his term ends in 2028. While it's not typical, it wouldn't be unprecedented.

Another complication is that Trump's appointed successor to Powell, Kevin Warsh, can only take office once he is approved by the Senate. A key lawmaker, Republican Thom Tillis of North Carolina, has said he will block Warsh's confirmation until the Justice Department drops its criminal probe of Powell.

Powell and his supporters have denounced the investigation as an intimidation tactic designed to pressure him to lower interest rates. Powell has said he intends to stay as Fed chair pro tempore until his successor is confirmed by the Senate.

On Wednesday, Trump said he believed Tillis would drop his opposition and that he would like to see the investigation continue. Trump has accused Powell of mismanaging the long-running renovation project.

"Does that mean we stop a probe of a building that I would have done for $25 million, that's going to cost maybe $4 billion? Don't you think we have to find out what happened there?" Trump said.

Meanwhile, in a sign the probe was continuing, two federal prosecutors visited the Fed headquarters on Tuesday and were turned away, CBS News reported.

Many economists view the showdown as a test of the Federal Reserve's independence from direct White House control. Trump has similarly attempted to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, but a federal court blocked that move, and the case is now before the Supreme Court.

Economists have raised concerns that if Fed officials answered directly to the White House, they would be pressured into lowering interest rates too much, allowing inflation to run rampant. Studies have shown that is what typically happens in countries with less independent central banks.

Wednesday's gains put Broadcom stock up 14% since the start of the year.
Credit: David Paul Morris / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Meta and Broadcom announced an expanded AI chip partnership.
• The companies will develop new custom AI chips to be used in Meta's AI data centers.

Meta is expanding its partnership with Broadcom, in another win for the AI chipmaker.

Shares of Broadcom (AVGO) were up about 3% in recent trading after the chipmaker said it struck a deal expanding its work with Meta Platforms (META) to develop new custom AI chips that will be used in Meta's AI data centers. Meta shares climbed 1%.

Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed, but Meta said that the scale of the deal is large enough that Broadcom CEO Hock Tan will leave Meta's board and transition to a special advisor role instead.

Why This Matters to Investors

Broadcom's string of recent chip deals could boost enthusiasm for its stock and ease investor concerns about the sustainability of financing in the AI sector.

Just earlier this month, Broadcom announced deals with Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google and Anthropic. Shares of the AI chipmaker have surged recently thanks to the deals, amid a broader rally on hopes a deal to end the war in Iran could come soon.

With Wednesday's gains, Broadcom shares are up around 14% since the start of the year, while Meta has added close to 2%.

Netflix shares have gained 13% since the start of the year.
Credit: Patrick T. Fallon / AFP / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Netflix's latest quarterly earnings are due after the closing bell Thursday, with the stock seen making a big move following the results.
• The report will be Netflix's first since backing out of the bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery in February.

Netflix is scheduled to report earnings after markets close Thursday, with traders expecting a big move from the streaming giant's stock following the results.

Based on current options pricing, Netflix (NFLX) shares are seen swinging up to 6% in either direction by the end of the week. A move of that size from Tuesday's close could push the stock above $112, its highest point since November. The low end of that range would drag it below $100, giving up some of the stock's recent gains.

Netflix shares have surged since the company dropped out of its bidding war with Paramount Skydance (PSKY) for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) in February, leaving the shares up about 13% from where they started the year. The shares also got a boost after Netflix announced plans last month to raise prices.

Why This Matters to Investors

A strong print from Netflix's first report since ending its pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery could help boost investor confidence in the streaming giant's outlook.

JPMorgan analysts said recently they expect Netflix to "come out re-focused and swinging" following the breakdown of the Warner Bros. deal, with the potential for Netflix to boost its margin forecast now that it is no longer pursuing the deal and has received a $2.8 billion termination fee from Warner Bros.

Netflix is projected to report first-quarter revenue of $12.19 billion along with earnings of 78 cents per share, each up more than 15% from the same time a year ago.

Analysts are largely bullish on Netflix, with 12 of the 15 analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha calling Netflix a "buy," compared to three neutral ratings. Their average price target of $118 would suggest about 11% upside from Tuesday's close.

News of the day for April 15, 2026

The S&P 500 closed just shy of a new record high on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq Composite has gained ground in ten consecutive sessions.
Credit: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

Stocks are having a quiet morning after rallying to start the week as investors await more news that could indicate a peace deal in Iran is close; oil prices are rising, after sinking yesterday, as the U.S. military has blockaded ports in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed; Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are the latest banks to report first-quarter results; Broadcom stock is rising on an expanded partnership with Meta to co-develop future generations of AI chips; and today is the last day for Americans to file taxes or request a six-month extension. Here's what you need to know today.

Stocks Little Changed as Investors Await More Iran Peace Updates

Stock futures are little changed Wednesday morning after two days of big gains fueled by optimism that the end of the Iran war could be in sight. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were hovering near unchanged recently. The major indexes each gained Tuesday, with the Nasdaq rising for a 10th straight session and entering positive territory for the year, and the S&P 500 approaching record highs set in late January. Oil futures were up more than 1% after sinking yesterday (more on that below), while gold futures slipped 0.6% to $4,820 an ounce. Bitcoin was trading at roughly $74,000, after rallying as high as $76,000 yesterday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little-changed at 4.27%.

US Blockade of Iranian Ports In Place, Trump Says War Close to Over

Oil prices are on the rise this morning as the U.S. military said it has put its blockade of Iran's ports in place, and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to shipping traffic. West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, were up 1.2% at $92.40 per barrel recently, after falling as low as $87 on Tuesday. Investors are hoping that a rumored second round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran takes place sometime soon, after talks over the weekend led by Vice President J.D. Vance failed to produce a deal to end the war. The two-week ceasefire that sparked a rally last week is halfway over, with mediators in the conflict looking to schedule talks before April 22, or get the U.S. and Iran to agree to an extension of the ceasefire so talks can continue, per The Associated Press. President Donald Trump said in an interview on Fox Business that the war is "very close to over," though Trump has made similar declarations several times since the war began in late February.

Bank of America, Morgan Stanley Continue Week of Big Bank Earnings

Big bank earnings season continues today with reports from Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC). Bank of America topped estimates in its first-quarter report. while Morgan Stanley's results also came in better than analysts had expected. Several big banks have already reported earnings this week, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Citigroup (C) beating estimates yesterday, while Wells Fargo's (WFC) results were mixed. Executives have said that the economy remained resilient in the first quarter, but cautioned that the Iran war and consistently elevated fuel prices could cause trouble later this year. Shares of Bank of America were up 1% in recent premarket trading, while Morgan Stanley added roughly 2%.

Broadcom Shares Jump on New Meta Partnership

Broadcom (AVGO) shares are surging after the chipmaker announced an expanded partnership with Meta Platforms (META). The companies will collaborate to develop several new generations of custom chips to power Meta's AI efforts, the companies said late Tuesday. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed, but Meta said that the scale of the deal is large enough that Broadcom CEO Hock Tan will leave Meta's board and transition to a special advisor role. Big tech companies have been looking to lock up partnerships with chip designers and manufacturers recently to secure the infrastructure they will need to run AI data centers. Broadcom shares were up nearly 3% recently, while Meta shares were little changed.

It's Tax Day in the US

If you haven't filed your taxes for 2025 yet, today is April 15, the deadline for filing taxes or requesting a six-month extension. Last year's One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed by the Trump administration included several changes to the tax code, including removing taxes on tips for certain workers and creating new deductions for seniors or those with car loan interest. Investopedia has a breakdown of what's changed, with tips to maximize your tax refund if you haven't yet filed.

The crew of Artemis II earlier this month traveled further from Earth than any humans in history.
Credit: NASA via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Investor interest in the space economy has exploded in recent years, prompting Morgan Stanley on Monday to released the "Space 60," a list of companies positioned to benefit from increased commercial and industrial activity in space.
• Elon Musk's SpaceX is set to go public later this year in what's expected to be one of the largest IPOs of all time.

It may sound like science fiction, but the space economy is real and close enough on the horizon that its own stock-market ecosystem is coming into focus. 

The impending public listing of Elon Musk's SpaceX, arguably the world's highest-profile space exploration company, has helped revive Wall Street's interest in space. SpaceX is expected to raise $40 billion to $80 billion in an IPO that values it north of $1 trillion, making it one of the largest market debuts in history.

"A combination of scientific advancements, geopolitics and economics have rekindled investor attention on the Space theme to the highest levels we have seen since launching the Morgan Stanley Space Team nearly a decade ago," wrote a team of Morgan Stanley equity analysts on Monday.

Why This Is Important

Space exploration, once solely the purview of national governments, is increasingly viewed as a viable commercial enterprise. A huge variety of companies spanning materials, industrials, communications, and other sectors stand to benefit from humanity's off-Earth ambitions.

Introducing the 'Space 60' Stocks

Investors need to wait at least a few more months to own a piece of SpaceX—its regulatory filings put it on track to hit markets by July. In the meantime, investors can consider the stocks in Morgan Stanley’s Space 60, “a comprehensive list of publicly traded space enablers across the value chain" that the firm announced on Monday. 

The Space 60 is split into seven subcategories: raw materials and mining; specialty materials and alloys; propulsion and fuels; electronics and semiconductors; components and subsystems; spacecraft and launch systems; and satellite operators and services. 

Twenty-four of the stocks in the Space 60 have more than doubled in value in the past year, possibly evidence of how bullish Wall Street has become on the space economy. 

Raw Materials and Mining

At the base of the space economy supply chain are the raw materials—mostly metals—that make space exploration possible. Those metals range from the common and well-known—aluminum and nickel—to the rare and obscure—rhenium, hafnium and beryllium. MP Materials (MP), the only U.S. based miner of rare earth metals, makes the list, as do copper miner Freeport McMoran (FCX) and aluminum maker Alcoa (AA), which late last year announced a joint venture with U.S., Australian and Japanese backing to produce annually 100 metric tons of gallium, a critical mineral for satellite power systems.

Specialty Materials and Alloys

Those raw metals are often processed into alloys that can withstand the extreme temperature swings of space and high stress. Leading providers of these alloys include Carpenter Technology (CRS), which derived 60% of its revenue from aerospace and defense markets last year, and Materion (MTRN), whose “space market sales have increased fivefold in just three years,” according to Morgan Stanley. Specialty glassmaker Corning (GLW) doesn’t report space economy exposure, but analysts say it could benefit from space-based infrastructure growth considering its work on past space programs including the Hubble telescope. 

Propulsion and Fuels

Space-related revenue accounts for a relatively small share of revenue (~2%) for fuel and propellant makers like Linde (LIN) and Air Products (APD), but their sales to the space market are expected to grow significantly. Morgan Stanley forecasts space customers will be Linde’s largest merchant customers by next year, while Air Products is expects to grow revenue by 6% to 7% this year. 

Electronics and Semiconductors

Electronics and semiconductor suppliers develop “radiation-hardened” chips that can withstand space’s elevated radiation levels. They also develop laser/optical systems that facilitate inter-satellite and space-to-ground communication. These suppliers include Analog Devices (ADI), STMicroelectronics (STM) and Microchip Technology (MCHP). 

Then there are the companies whose technology could help make the dream of sending AI data centers into space a reality. Coherent (COHR) “could be a potential enabler of orbital AI infrastructure due to existing expertise in [low-Earth orbit] laser optics” and “its deep roots with terrestrial datacenter operators,” the analysts wrote. Also on the list is AI chip giant Nvidia (NVDA), which announced at a conference last month its Space-1 Vera Rubin module, an AI computing platform designed specifically for orbital data centers. 

Components and Subsystems

Suppliers of the valves, connectors, bearings, and various other subcomponents of spacecraft include industrial giants like Parker Hannifin (PH) and Honeywell (HON), which is in the process of spinning off its Aerospace Technologies unit as a stand-alone company. The category also includes optic connector maker Amphenol (APH), management of which noted in a recent earnings call that space was a key driver of its defense unit’s sales growth. 

Spacecraft and Launch Systems

Spacecraft and launch system makers range from established defense contractors like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and RTX (RTX) to specialized upstarts like Rocket Lab (RL) and Firefly Aerospace (FLY). The latter have seen their revenue soar due to a steady increase in the number of objects launched into space, which has approximately doubled in the past five years. Firefly reported a 163% increase in revenue last year, and has forecast growth of more than 170% this year. 

Satellite Operators and Systems

Finally, satellite operators like Viasat (VSAT) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) “generate revenue by providing communication, Earth observation, navigation, and data services from orbit.” Other major players include Amazon (AMZN), whose Project Leo has been given clearance to launch more than 3,200 satellites to support a global low-Earth orbit broadband system. Amazon on Tuesday announced an $11 billion deal to acquire Globalstar (GSAT), another Space 60 company. Planet Labs (PL) is part of Google’s Project Suncatcher, an effort to deploy orbital data centers outfitted with Google’s custom TPU chips. 

Support from Government Spending

To be sure, enthusiasm for the space-based commercial activity (low-Earth orbit telecommunications, data centers in space, etc.), doesn't guarantee these businesses pan out as expected. An economic downturn or rising interest rates could create headwinds for the nascent space economy. But companies shooting for the stars may have back-up buyers: governments buttressing their space-based defenses in response to rising geopolitical tensions.

“While there is some concern about longer term growth prospects in commercial,” wrote Deutsche Bank analysts in a note last week about the Canadian spacecraft manufacturer MDA Space (MDA), “we think any potential shortfall can be more than offset by a lucrative government/defense pipeline.” Notably, many of the companies on Morgan Stanley’s list are major defense contractors or, in the case of MP Materials, companies in which the federal government has taken a stake under the auspices of national security.

Companies that have implemented AI are more likely to change the size of their workforce, Gallup said.
Credit: suney munintrangkul via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Unlike large companies, smaller companies that have adopted AI have been more likely to expand their workforces than to shrink them, Gallup found.
• But some big businesses have laid off workers because of AI, which is fueling worker concerns about the technology eliminating their role.

If your company is embracing AI, it could mean staffing changes are on the way—though not always in the form of cuts.

Smaller U.S. employers that have implemented AI have been more likely to expand their headcount, while larger companies have been more likely to cut their workforces, according to a survey released Monday by analytics firm Gallup. Still, Gallup found that AI use can be an indication that employers of all sizes may lay off staff, underscoring why workers are concerned the technology will disrupt their careers and companies are reflecting on what it means for their headcount and the financial health of consumers.

Among smaller organizations—those with 5,000 to 10,000 employees— AI adoption accompanied a workforce expansion 38% of the time, and a reduction 23% of the time, Gallup reported. Companies with 10,000 or more employees grew their headcount 30% of the time and cut it 33% of the time, the survey said.

Why This News Matters to Investors

Many workers have seen personal productivity gains because of AI, but few say the technology has transformed how their employer operates, Gallup said. Many companies are still searching for ways to benefit from the technology.

A number of high-profile companies have lately called AI a factor in their decision to conduct layoffs, including Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Pinterest (PINS) and Block (XYZ). Businesses referenced AI when announcing about 5% of layoffs last year, with the bulk of the cuts occurring in the tech sector, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Many firms are also investing in the technology while curbing raises.

“Because these organizations employ a large share of the workforce and are also among the most likely to adopt AI, workforce changes within large organizations may shape public perceptions of AI’s impact on jobs,” Gallup said.

Americans, especially those who work at organizations that are embracing AI, are increasingly worried the technology will eliminate their role, Gallup said. Still, many workers credit AI with improving their productivity—though few say it has transformed company-wide operations. Half of Americans now use AI at work, including 13% on a daily basis, Gallup said.

“AI’s effect will likely unfold unevenly across roles, industries and organizations,” Gallup said.

Some companies have already modified job responsibilities in response to AI, while others are still assessing their approach. Meanwhile, workers are learning how to use the technology and highlighting their command of it, with AI mentions on resumes tripling over the past two years, according to Monster, a job listings site, which said an eighth of such documents now list AI terms.

"AI skills on resumes are quickly becoming a staple," Monster said last month.

This article has been updated since it was first published to clarify some descriptions of Gallup's findings.

Oracle shares have surged 18% since the week began
Credit: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Oracle shares have surged this week amid a broader market rally, after a difficult start to the year.
• The cloud computing giant announced a new power agreement for its growing array of data centers, along with new agentic AI products.

Optimism around new deals and AI offerings has made Oracle one of the biggest winners of this week's rally. Could it help pull the stock out of its recent slump?

Shares of Oracle (ORCL) climbed close to 5% Tuesday, after jumping nearly 13% Monday, after the cloud computing giant announced an expansion of its partnership with Bloom Energy (BE) to power its expanding network of data centers. Oracle also announced a new suite of agentic AI products Tuesday.

The gains have made Oracle the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 for the week so far, at a time when markets rallied broadly amid hopes a deal to end the war in Iran could come soon.

Why This Matters to Investors

Oracle's recent advance could herald a turning point in sentiment surrounding the stock after a tough start to the year.

Oracle shares have been pressured for the last several months as the company faced concerns over its reliance on a few small customers and the debt load it has taken on to finance a massive data center buildout.

The company has posted consistently solid earnings, leading analysts to stay bullish on the stock. Oracle has also made some cost-cutting moves to offset its surging expenses, including laying off thousands of employees.

Still, even with Oracle's 18% gain since the week began, the stock is down more than 16% year-to-date, and has lost roughly 50% from its September highs.

The U.S. stock market has recovered from a series of shocks in recent years.
Credit: Charly Triballeau / AFP / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The Iran war isn't over, but stocks have rebounded from their war-driven sell-off, with the S&P 500 approaching a fresh record high on Tuesday amid optimism for a peace deal.
• Economic data has recently eased fears that higher oil prices would fuel a sustained acceleration of inflation and drag on consumer spending, the engine of the U.S. economy.

In the Middle East, not much has changed on the ground in the past week—fighting continues in Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and negotiators left this weekend’s peace talks empty-handed. On Wall Street, traders see things differently.

The S&P 500 gained 1.2% on Tuesday, boosted by optimism for a lasting agreement between the U.S. and Iran that will end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the closure of which caused energy prices to skyrocket. Tuesday’s gains put the benchmark index at a two-month high and just 11 points, or 0.2%, away from an all-time closing high. (Follow Investopedia's live coverage of today's trading here.)

“There is a clear ‘mission accomplished’ tone being priced into markets as the ceasefire appears to be holding and talks set to move forward,” wrote Jake Behan, head of capital markets at ETF provider Direxion, on Tuesday.  

Why This Is Important

The stock market, like the U.S. economy, has proved incredibly resilient to a variety of shocks in recent years. Investors may be feeling confident that, barring the worst case scenario, a stock market that's already charged higher through trade uncertainty, stubborn inflation and elevated interest rates, can weather more uncertainty.

Optimism was buoyed on Tuesday by reports the U.S. and Iran will resume negotiations this week, as well as a much softer-than-expect wholesale inflation report that eased some fears about the effect a spike in oil prices will have on inflation in the coming months. Investors are also confident that corporate America had a strong first quarter, with analysts forecasting double-digit profit growth for the S&P 500.

“Notably, there’s been little evidence of meaningful demand destruction tied to the conflict, which suggests the underlying growth backdrop remains intact heading into any resolution,” said Behan. 

Consumer spending continued at a healthy clip last month, according to a Bank of America analysis of its clients’ debit and credit card spending. Aside from gas, the price of which rose steadily across the country last month, the spending categories that posted the biggest monthly increases were electronics, home improvement and department stores, the kind of discretionary spending one would expect to see decline against a bleak economic backdrop.

BofA attributed the resilience of consumer spending in part to the stock market’s relatively sanguine response to the Iran war. Even at the depths of last month’s sell-off, the S&P 500 still avoided a correction, or a 10% decline from its January highs. As a result, the higher-income cohorts who make up an increasing share of consumer spending felt comfortable to keep spending. According to BofA, a 20% decline in the stock market would likely be required for higher income households to rein in their spending. 

To be sure, experts note the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is a tenuous one. Both sides are far apart on some key points, including Iran’s right to enrich uranium and a system for overseeing the Strait of Hormuz. And, with traffic through the strait still a fraction of its pre-war levels, global oil supply is, at best, months away from anything resembling normal.

Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics, forecast on Monday that it will take up to eight months for oil shipments through the strait to reach pre-war levels. May expects Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, to end the year around $80 a barrel, down from $95 today and nearly $110 before last week’s ceasefire announcement, but up from $73 before the war. 

Bitcoin ETF buying has picked up in recent weeks as new products have landed.
Credit: Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Year-to-date net flows into spot bitcoin ETFs, including Morgan Stanley's latest, recently turned positive; crypto-linked stocks including Robinhood and Coinbase were among the S&P 500's top gainers on Tuesday.
• Strategy, a publicly-traded company made famous by its bitcoin stockpile, recently purchased more than $1 billion worth of the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin has some shine on it again.

The price of the world's largest cryptocurrency was recently above $75,000, raising hopes that coin markets are recovering from the October rout—which pulled bitcoin from six-digit highs to around $60,000 in February—in earnest. Crypto-linked stocks are also rising, with Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) among the day's standout gainers.

WHY IT MATTERS TO YOU

Crypto has been stuck in a rut since bitcoin reached an all-time high in October, but the latest surge in buying activity is raising investor hopes that coin markets are finding their groove once more.

The latest turn in crypto markets has coincided with the return of risk-on vibes, as investors last week started to price in the possibility of an end to the war in Iran. U.S. stocks are up year-to-date, crude oil prices have backed off highs, and the Cboe VIX, also known as the Street's fear gauge, is below 20, a level indicating price stability, and on the decline. Meanwhile, there are signs of life in bitcoin buying activity.

Year-to-date net flows into spot bitcoin ETFs turned positive at the end of last week, nearing $173 million, according to Farside Investors data. That included Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), which launched last week sporting the lowest annual fee on the market; it collected over $30 million in flows on its first day. Goldman Sachs (GS) on Tuesday filed to launch a "Bitcoin Premium Income ETF," which seeks to generate income using a covered call strategy.

Meanwhile, Strategy (MSTR) on Monday said it earlier this month bought over $1 billion worth of bitcoin at an average price of $71,902. That, the company said, brings its average bitcoin cost to around $75,577—just below bitcoin's price as of Tuesday morning.

"The crypto market is beginning to show signs of basing after several months of sustained downside pressure and relative underperformance," Joel Kruger, Markets Strategist at LMAX Group said in emailed comments yesterday. "That said, from a technical and structural standpoint, the market still needs to confirm whether these early signs of stabilization can evolve into a more meaningful bottom."