Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

Episode 290 of the Investopedia Express podcast with Caleb Silver (Apr. 13, 2026)

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As ceasefire talks break down with Iran and oil prices spike again, investors face more uncertainty in an uncertain market. While this may feel temporary, investors may need to get used to a broader rewiring of the capital markets, according to Matt Bartolini of State Street Investment Management. Yesterday’s winners have no lock on the future, even though individual investors can’t seem to let them go, according to Investopedia’s most recent sentiment survey of our readers. Plus, earnings season is here and the expectations are sky high.

• ASML reports earnings Wednesday morning, with the stock seen potentially surpassing February's record highs following the results.
• The maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment is expected to report solid sales and profit growth as the AI boom has driven up demand.

ASML (ASML) is set to post earnings Wednesday morning, with traders anticipating the stock could reach a record high following the results.

Based on current options pricing, traders expect the U.S.-listed shares of the Dutch company could swing up to 6% in either direction by the end of the week. A move of that size from Monday's close could lift shares to around $1,590, surpassing the record set in late February. The low end of that range would drag shares down to $1,410.

ASML shares have gained 40% since the start of the year, as booming demand for AI chips and the equipment to make them drove sales to new highs.

As the world's largest supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, ASML's results may be taken as an indicator of how confident chipmakers are about future demand.

Jefferies analysts recently wrote that they expect ASML and other equipment makers to "reiterate the strong outlook statements" that the companies laid out in their last quarterly reports, as high demand for chips is pushing chipmakers to boost production capacity.

ASML is projected to report earnings of 6.69 euros ($7.84) per share on a 12% year-over-year jump in revenue to 8.69 billion euros ($10.19 billion) for the first quarter.

Wall Street analysts are largely bullish on ASML. Eight of the nine analysts with current ratings tracked by Visble Alpha have recommended buying the stock, compared to just one "sell" rating.

• Goldman Sachs chief David Solomon said IPO activity slowed in the back end of the first quarter during the company's earnings Q&A on Monday.
• "CEOs are looking carefully at how, what's going on," he said.

Iran is on the bank-executive mind this earnings season.

Goldman Sachs' (GS) first quarter beat—earnings per share and revenue exceeded analyst expectations—is being eclipsed by investor concerns that continued fighting in the Middle East will have an adverse impact on the Wall Street firm's performance. Shares have declined roughly 2%, extending their year-to-date decline. Meanwhile, bank stocks including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) were up as of Monday afternoon. (That trio is set to report tomorrow.)

David Solomon, chief of Goldman, said he expected companies to stick with their plans for dealmaking, even as initial public offerings stalled in the back end of the first three months of the year, per transcripts provided by AlphaSense. "There is no question that with the conflict in the Middle East, IPO activity slowed a little bit, particularly in March," he said in response to analyst questions during Goldman's conference call Monday morning.

"At the end of the day, equity markets have been extremely resilient," Solomon said. "And if that resilience continues, I do think you'll see IPO activity accelerate again."

Just as tariffs were top of mind during last year's first-quarter earnings season, Iran is likely to be a top topic over the next few weeks.

That the Iran War could derail a year of expected mega IPOs— offerings from Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are hotly anticipated—doesn't bode well for the banks, like Goldman, that underwrite them. Corporate executives, meanwhile, are monitoring the situation in the Middle East closely to figure out how they might be affected, according to Solomon.

"CEOs are looking carefully at how, what's going on, particularly with commodity prices translating into the economy and into consumer demand," he said.

Investors are likely to key into forecasts of companies most impacted by a surge in crude oil prices and the closure of the major trade passageway that is the Strait of Hormuz. "My guess is to the degree that energy prices remain high, you will see that translate through a little bit. But at this point, the underlying economy still remains relatively robust," he said.

Though the market appears to be anticipating a speedy end to the war in Iran, President Trump's recent move to launch a blockade on Iran ports in the Strait of Hormuz could extend the conflict by several months, according to some market experts. The longer the fighting goes, the likelier it will start to show up in company results in the second quarter and beyond.

"If the resolution of the conflict drags, that probably will be a headwind in some of these areas, particularly inflation trends as we get further into the second and third quarter," Solomon said.

Mergers and acquisitions activity has been "pretty resilient," Solomon said. "But of course, I don't have a crystal ball."

• JPMorgan Chase is set to report earnings Tuesday, with the bank widely expected to post a solid first quarter.
• Investors are likely to be listening closely to what CEO Jamie Dimon has to say about the economic outlook amid the Iran war.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is scheduled to report earnings Tuesday morning, with traders expecting its stock could approach its January highs following the results.

Options pricing indicates traders are anticipating JPMorgan stock could swing up to about 4% by the end of the week. A move of that magnitude from Monday's recent level around $311 could see shares surpass $322, recovering some of their recent losses. The low end of the range would be about $300.

JPMorgan shares are about 7% off the record high they set in January. Financial stocks have been pressured in recent months amid concerns that the U.S. could be heading towards stagflation, along with worries about the health of the private credit industry.

Investors may look to JPMorgan's earnings, and comments from CEO Jamie Dimon, for insights on the health of the American consumer and the economy at large.

Bank of America analysts recently said they expect JPMorgan and several other banks to report first-quarter results in line with or above estimates, but warned the firms might be cautious with their 2026 outlooks "given macro uncertainties."

JPMorgan's first-quarter revenue is projected to come in at $48.73 billion with $25.22 billion in net interest income, each up around 8% from the same time a year ago. Earnings per share are seen rising to $5.45 from $5.07 the same time a year ago.

Analysts are largely bullish on JPMorgan stock, with six of the nine analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha calling it a "buy," compared to three neutral ratings. The stock has an average price target just under $352, suggesting upside of about 12% from its recent levels.

• Palantir shares gained Monday after President Donald Trump defended the stock on social media.
• The stock took a hit last week amid growing worries about competition from Anthropic.

Palantir's stock got a presidential vote of confidence—and its stock is rising. Can that help pull the stock out of its slide?

Shares of Palantir (PLTR) were up nearly 4% in recent trading, helping the defense-tech company's stock recover some of its recent losses powered in part by worries about competition from Anthropic. The company got extra attention when President Donald Trump on Friday posted on social media that the company "has proven to have great war fighting capabilities and equipment. Just ask our enemies!!!"—and shared its ticker symbol.

President Trump's show of support could help rekindle enthusiasm for Palantir's stock, which has taken a hit in recent months amid a broader pullback in software shares on worries about competition from new AI tools.

Monday's move has helped reverse recent trends for the shares, which have lost more than a fifth of their value in 2026. A now-deleted post Thursday by "Big Short" investor Michael Burry that the Claude chatbot maker is "eating Palantir's lunch" sent the stock tumbling 7% that day; software stocks broadly have been buffeted by concerns that AI-powered services will eat into their revenues.

Longtime bulls at Wedbush led by Dan Ives wrote in a note to clients late last week that they believe Burry had the "wrong take," calling Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform "unmatched" in its capabilities and unlikely to be disrupted by Anthropic's offerings.

Some high-profile investors are buying the dip. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest, known for its focus on disruptive technologies, on Friday snapped up more than 85,000 shares valued close to $11 million across five of its flagship exchange-traded funds, trade notifications showed.

Wall Street thinks the stock can keep rising. Analysts' consensus price target, recently above $180 as tracked by Visible Alpha, is off record highs above $200 but well above Friday's close under $130. Broader questions about software, however, remain.

"We believe investors will struggle to get comfortable with the sector at large until: a) more meaningful growth acceleration emerges; b) we get clarity on specific focus areas/swim-lanes of AI model leaders as they increasingly move into the Enterprise software market," Citi analysts wrote Friday.

• The latest U.S. moves in Iran are "going to take a while" to play out, Evercore's Roger Altman said in an interview Monday morning.

• The market's "mild reaction" to the latest developments in Iran poses a risk to the blockade strategy, he said.

Investors—and Washington—will need resolve to make it through the war in Iran, one market expert said today.

"The U.S. has not achieved the most important strategic goals that President Trump talked about," Evercore founder and senior chairman Roger Altman told CNBC Monday morning. That is, he said, Iran still has its stores of enriched uranium, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and there hasn't been regime change in the country. That U.S. markets have so far had a "mild" reaction to the latest developments— Trump on Monday morning launched a naval blockade of Iran's ports in the strait—adds risk to Washington's strategy, because investors already appear to be pricing in a speedy end to the fighting, Altman said.

U.S. investors last week appeared to buy the de-escalation story, shrugging off the possibility of a drawn out conflict in Iran in spite of re-escalating tensions between the country and leaders of the Iranian regime. That may be continuing today: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down only slightly, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, are rising.

The U.S.'s latest move in the Middle East could take longer to execute than markets appear to expect, some experts say. That, they argue, raises the question of whether Washington will stick with its blockade strategy if markets retreat.

U.S. Treasury yields, which rise when bond prices fall, have gotten a bit of a bump. The U.S. dollar is roughly flat, and the fear gauge, formally known as the CBOE VIX Index, remains below 20, signaling stability in markets. Brent crude oil futures have risen slightly to around $100.

To Altman, a more negative market reaction could test Washington's willingness to stick with its plans. If the markets start to price in the possibility of a protracted war, he said, the question is "Will President Trump have the patience to hang in there?" Some investors broadly see the administration as willing to back off policy decisions if markets seem not to favor them.

"The idea that the blockade is coming into effect this morning and Iran is going to fold promptly because it's being deprived of its oil revenue and its allies are being deprived of their oil supplies, I just don't think is correct," Altman said. "To work, the blockade is going to take some time, some serious time. It could be months."

Some forecasters question the effectiveness of the strategy. Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, on Sunday said he doubted "the idea that the U.S. Navy has the temerity and the gall to actually interdict shipping through Hormuz. It risks war with China, and we guess Australia, the UK, Japan, South Korea, et al., if it were to do so."

One key to a speedy resolution with Iran could be China, Altman said, which is Iran's biggest customer and likely has more influence on it than any other country. That puts a spotlight on Trump's meeting with China's Xi Jinping scheduled for next month.

• Goldman Sachs mostly topped estimates with its latest quarterly results.
• The results could have implications for other big banks set to report in the days that follow.

Goldman Sachs largely topped estimates with its quarterly results. Other big banks could be set to follow its lead.

Goldman Sachs (GS) reported $17.23 billion in revenue and earnings of $17.55 per share, each above the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. Net interest income surged 23% year-over-year to $3.56 billion. Goldman posted a record quarter for global banking and markets revenue, though its fixed income, currency, and commodities revenue fell 10% to $4.01 billion, below analysts' forecasts, thanks to "significantly lower" revenues in interest rate products and mortgages.

Despite the solid results, Goldman shares were down 4% recently. Several other bank stocks were also dragged lower, ahead of earnings due later this week. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) are scheduled to report Tuesday, with Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) set to follow Wednesday.

Investors will be watching bank earnings for indications about the health of the American consumer, amid signs of worsening sentiment in the face of rising prices and worries about the Iran war.

Goldman CEO David Solomon said that "market conditions became more volatile" in the first quarter, and that Goldman will look to manage risks carefully as the "geopolitical landscape remains very complex."

With Monday's move lower, Goldman shares have slipped into negative territory for the year after hitting a record high in mid-January.

News of the day for April 13, 2026

Stock futures are sinking Monday, and oil prices are on the rise.

Crude oil is are surging after peace talks between the U.S. and Iran ended without a deal over the weekend, with President Donald Trump also threatening to blockade the Strait of Hormuz; Trump threatened China with new tariffs as reports suggest the country is arming Iran; Goldman Sachs kicks off first-quarter big bank earnings today; other big banks reporting this week include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup, with Netflix and PepsiCo among other leading companies on the agenda.

Here's what you need to know today.

Stock futures are pointing to a lower open as investors react to the news that peace talks between Iranian and U.S. officials failed to produce a deal over the weekend. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 0.4% recently, while those tied to the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were each down around 0.5%. The major indexes finished Friday mostly lower, but posted weekly gains for a second straight week as optimism around a ceasefire with Iran boosted stocks. Gold futures are down 1% to about $4,740 an ounce, while the 10-year Treasury yield is little changed from last week's close of 4.34%. Bitcoin is trading just under $71,000 this morning after jumping as high as $73,800 and falling as low as $70,500 over the weekend.

Crude oil futures are soaring 8% to $104 per barrel. Trump said Sunday after the talks with Iran ended without a deal that the U.S. military would soon blockade the Strait of Hormuz, halting all traffic through the waterway after Iran reportedly took a toll to let some ships through after the ceasefire was announced last week. The U.S. military later said it would blockade ports and coastal areas in Iran rather than the entire strait, and Iranian officials responded with threats to other ports in the region, according to The Associated Press.

Trump over the weekend threatened new tariffs on China in an interview with Fox News, after being asked about a CNN report that suggested U.S. intelligence found that China is supplying weapons to Iran. Trump said he would place a new 50% tariff on Chinese imports if its involvement in supplying Iran is confirmed. Trump's tariff threats have gone quiet in recent weeks as attention has shifted to the war, though he has threatened to tariff imports from countries that help Iran, per CNBC. The Supreme Court in February struck down most of the tariffs Trump imposed last year, with Trump looking to impose new tariffs through other laws.

Goldman Sachs (GS) is the first big bank to report first quarter earnings with results due out at 7:30 a.m. ET Monday. Analysts are projecting first-quarter revenue up 13% year-over-year to $17.06 billion along with earnings of $16.52 per share. Several other banks are set to follow with their own results later this week, with executives expected to weigh in on an uncertain economy that is seeing inflation driven by the Iran war and worsening consumer sentiment. Investors will be looking to the bank earnings for indications about the health of the American consumer and viewpoints on how executives like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon see the economy faring this year.

Among the other banks reporting later this week are JPMorgan, Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC), all on Tuesday, and Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) on Wednesday. Investors will also get a look at the tech sector, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) and Netflix (NFLX) reporting this week, and the grocery industry, with Albertsons (ACI) and Pepsico (PEP) set to post results. Several economic reports are also due out this week, from existing home sales today to the Producer Price Index tomorrow and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on Wednesday.

Questions about whether the U.S. has reached an enduring resolution with Iran—and what it means for oil—continue to dog investors. Meanwhile, big banks will release results that shed light on how the conflict has impacted the economy following last Friday's inflation data.

Late Saturday night, Vice President JD Vance said that the U.S. and Iran had failed to reach a peace deal after marathon talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, because Tehran refused to agree not to develop a nuclear weapon. "The meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not," President Donald Trump wrote Sunday morning on Truth Social. "Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz."

Goldman Sachs is slated to report Monday, followed by JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday and Bank of America on Wednesday. Investors will watch for shifts in trading activity, as well as changes in the corporate appetite for mergers and acquisitions and IPOs.

Bank executives also often share broad outlooks on the U.S. economy; JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently said he is wary of a potential “tipping point.” 

Financial service firms can also offer perspective on how consumers are faring, including how they are responding to last month's rise in inflation. (Another perspective on Americans' financial well-being could come from supermarket chain Albertsons, which reports Tuesday.)

Updates on demand for AI are also on the docket. ASML, a chipmaking equipment giant, is slated to release first-quarter results Wednesday, followed by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Thursday. The latter-company pre-reported March revenues last week, signaling continued strong demand for AI chips and related products.

Stocks ended the week higher after markets reacted to the two-week ceasefire between the U.S., Israel and Iran, and the CPI report. For the week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow ended up 4.7%, 3.6%, and 3%, respectively, overshadowing a more restrained Friday session that followed the CPI report. The indexes logged a second-consecutive weekly gain after five weeks in the read. Read Friday's markets recap here.

Here are some of the most significant events scheduled for the week ahead. TradingView publishes a more exhaustive rundown; clicking that link will take you off the Investopedia site.

• Monday, April 13. Goldman Sachs Group (GS) is slated to release first-quarter results before the bell, followed by a conference call at 9:30 a.m. ET.
• Tuesday, April 14. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is set to release first-quarter results at 7 a.m. ET and host a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET.
• Tuesday: Albertsons (ACI) is scheduled to publish fiscal fourth-quarter (ended Feb. 28) results before the bell, followed by a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET. The grocer has said that consumers are focused on finding value at the supermarket.
• Wednesday, April 15. Bank of America (BAC) is set to release first-quarter results and then address investors at 8:30 a.m. ET.
• Wednesday: ASML, listed in the U.S. with the ticker "ASML", is slated to discuss its first-quarter results on an 8:00 a.m. ET. conference call. (The Netherlands-based company will hand in its numbers hours earlier.) The chip equipment supplier previously said it expects demand from outside of China to ensure 2026 sales don't come in below 2025 figures.
• Thursday, April 16. PepsiCo (PEP) is scheduled to release first-quarter results at 6 a.m. ET and host a conference call at 8:15 a.m. ET. This fall, activist investor Elliott Investment Management announced it had a $4 billion stake in Pepsi, which has lowered some prices as part of a new strategy.
• Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is set to discuss its first-quarter results on a conference call at 2 p.m. ET. In January, the contract chipmaker reported record quarterly numbers and bolstered investors' confidence in demand for AI chips.

Many investors seem to be acting as though the conflict with Iran is already over, Crystal Kim reported. Mortgage rates have receded a bit lately, notes Sabrina Karl, which may cheer hopeful homebuyers. And don't forget, as Elizabeth Guevara writes, that the tax filing deadline is now just days away.

• Consumer sentiment fell to its lowest on record in April as the Iran war pushed up gas prices and fueled uncertainty.
• The survey took place mainly before the ceasefire was announced this week, so it could improve in coming months.
• The latest wave of dissatisfaction was because of the Iran war, but longer-running concerns include tariffs and the high cost of living.

Not during the COVID-19 shutdowns, nor the surge of inflation that followed; not during the double-digit unemployment and energy crises of the 1970s; not during the economic downturn of the 1980s; not even during the Great Recession, have Americans ever felt worse about the economy and their personal finances.

That's according to the University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment, which plunged 11% to an all-time low of 47.6 in April in the survey going back to 1952, as the Iran war pushed up gasoline prices and threatened the overall economic outlook. The index is based on a survey of U.S. adults about their views on inflation, the job market, whether they plan to make major purchases, and other financial matters. The index dropped among most demographic and all political groups in April.

"Open-ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy," Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu wrote in a blog post accompanying the data release.

The overall economy could suffer if those ill feelings about financial matters translate into reduced consumer spending.

The dismal reading could be as low as it gets for the time being: 98% of the surveys were completed before April 7, when a temporary ceasefire took hold and raised hopes the conflict, and its economic disruptions, could end soon, Hsu noted.

Still, the results highlighted how the Iran war was the latest straw on an already sky-high pile of economic discontents. The index had been flirting with record lows even before the war broke out at the end of February. Persistent concerns include uncertainty about tariff policy since President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements last April, a job market where employers are reluctant to hire, and inflation that's run above the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target for five years.

"Depressed consumer sentiment reflects an elevated level of uncertainty regarding trade policy and the conflict in the Middle East, affordability challenges, and very little job growth since Liberation Day," Jay Hawkins, senior economist at PNC, wrote in a commentary. "As a result, consumer sentiment is expected to remain depressed in the near term, although a permanent end to the hostilities in the Middle East could boost sentiment."

Economists monitor consumer sentiment because it's linked—albeit imperfectly—to decisions people make about how much to spend. Falling consumer sentiment can go along with reductions in consumer spending, which is the main engine of economic growth in the U.S.