Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

Headlines out of the Strait of Hormuz continue to influence investors' thinking.
Credit: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The latest U.S. moves in Iran are "going to take a while" to play out, Evercore's Roger Altman said in an interview Monday morning.

• The market's "mild reaction" to the latest developments in Iran poses a risk to the blockade strategy, he said.

Investors—and Washington—will need resolve to make it through the war in Iran, one market expert said today.

"The U.S. has not achieved the most important strategic goals that President Trump talked about," Evercore founder and senior chairman Roger Altman told CNBC Monday morning. That is, he said, Iran still has its stores of enriched uranium, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and there hasn't been regime change in the country. That U.S. markets have so far had a "mild" reaction to the latest developments— Trump on Monday morning launched a naval blockade of Iran's ports in the strait—adds risk to Washington's strategy, because investors already appear to be pricing in a speedy end to the fighting, Altman said.

U.S. investors last week appeared to buy the de-escalation story, shrugging off the possibility of a drawn out conflict in Iran in spite of re-escalating tensions between the country and leaders of the Iranian regime. That may be continuing today: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down only slightly, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, are rising.

WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU

The U.S.'s latest move in the Middle East could take longer to execute than markets appear to expect, some experts say. That, they argue, raises the question of whether Washington will stick with its blockade strategy if markets retreat.

U.S. Treasury yields, which rise when bond prices fall, have gotten a bit of a bump. The U.S. dollar is roughly flat, and the fear gauge, formally known as the CBOE VIX Index, remains below 20, signaling stability in markets. Brent crude oil futures have risen slightly to around $100.

To Altman, a more negative market reaction could test Washington's willingness to stick with its plans. If the markets start to price in the possibility of a protracted war, he said, the question is "Will President Trump have the patience to hang in there?" Some investors broadly see the administration as willing to back off policy decisions if markets seem not to favor them.

"The idea that the blockade is coming into effect this morning and Iran is going to fold promptly because it's being deprived of its oil revenue and its allies are being deprived of their oil supplies, I just don't think is correct," Altman said. "To work, the blockade is going to take some time, some serious time. It could be months."

Some forecasters question the effectiveness of the strategy. Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, on Sunday said he doubted "the idea that the U.S. Navy has the temerity and the gall to actually interdict shipping through Hormuz. It risks war with China, and we guess Australia, the UK, Japan, South Korea, et al., if it were to do so."

One key to a speedy resolution with Iran could be China, Altman said, which is Iran's biggest customer and likely has more influence on it than any other country. That puts a spotlight on Trump's meeting with China's Xi Jinping scheduled for next month.

Goldman Sachs is the first of the major U.S. banks to post first-quarter results Monday.
Credit: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Goldman Sachs mostly topped estimates with its latest quarterly results.
• The results could have implications for other big banks set to report in the days that follow.

Goldman Sachs largely topped estimates with its quarterly results. Other big banks could be set to follow its lead.

Goldman Sachs (GS) reported $17.23 billion in revenue and earnings of $17.55 per share, each above the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. Net interest income surged 23% year-over-year to $3.56 billion. Goldman posted a record quarter for global banking and markets revenue, though its fixed income, currency, and commodities revenue fell 10% to $4.01 billion, below analysts' forecasts, thanks to "significantly lower" revenues in interest rate products and mortgages.

Despite the solid results, Goldman shares were down 4% recently. Several other bank stocks were also dragged lower, ahead of earnings due later this week. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) are scheduled to report Tuesday, with Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) set to follow Wednesday.

Why This Matters to Investors

Investors will be watching bank earnings for indications about the health of the American consumer, amid signs of worsening sentiment in the face of rising prices and worries about the Iran war.

Goldman CEO David Solomon said that "market conditions became more volatile" in the first quarter, and that Goldman will look to manage risks carefully as the "geopolitical landscape remains very complex."

With Monday's move lower, Goldman shares have slipped into negative territory for the year after hitting a record high in mid-January.

News of the day for April 13, 2026

Stocks gained last week as investors were optimistic about peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.
Credit: Charly Triballeau / AFP / Getty Images

Stock futures are sinking Monday, and oil prices are on the rise.

Crude oil is are surging after peace talks between the U.S. and Iran ended without a deal over the weekend, with President Donald Trump also threatening to blockade the Strait of Hormuz; Trump threatened China with new tariffs as reports suggest the country is arming Iran; Goldman Sachs kicks off first-quarter big bank earnings today; other big banks reporting this week include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup, with Netflix and PepsiCo among other leading companies on the agenda.

Here's what you need to know today.

Stocks Lower, Oil Higher After Weekend Peace Talks Don't Lead to Deal

Stock futures are pointing to a lower open as investors react to the news that peace talks between Iranian and U.S. officials failed to produce a deal over the weekend. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down 0.4% recently, while those tied to the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were each down around 0.5%. The major indexes finished Friday mostly lower, but posted weekly gains for a second straight week as optimism around a ceasefire with Iran boosted stocks. Gold futures are down 1% to about $4,740 an ounce, while the 10-year Treasury yield is little changed from last week's close of 4.34%. Bitcoin is trading just under $71,000 this morning after jumping as high as $73,800 and falling as low as $70,500 over the weekend.

Crude Oil Futures Surge Above $100 as Trump Threatens to Blockade Strait of Hormuz

Crude oil futures are soaring 8% to $104 per barrel. Trump said Sunday after the talks with Iran ended without a deal that the U.S. military would soon blockade the Strait of Hormuz, halting all traffic through the waterway after Iran reportedly took a toll to let some ships through after the ceasefire was announced last week. The U.S. military later said it would blockade ports and coastal areas in Iran rather than the entire strait, and Iranian officials responded with threats to other ports in the region, according to The Associated Press.

New Trump Tariff Threat as Report Says China Arming Iran

Trump over the weekend threatened new tariffs on China in an interview with Fox News, after being asked about a CNN report that suggested U.S. intelligence found that China is supplying weapons to Iran. Trump said he would place a new 50% tariff on Chinese imports if its involvement in supplying Iran is confirmed. Trump's tariff threats have gone quiet in recent weeks as attention has shifted to the war, though he has threatened to tariff imports from countries that help Iran, per CNBC. The Supreme Court in February struck down most of the tariffs Trump imposed last year, with Trump looking to impose new tariffs through other laws.

Goldman Sachs Kicks Off Big Bank Earnings Amid Uncertain Economy

Goldman Sachs (GS) is the first big bank to report first quarter earnings with results due out at 7:30 a.m. ET Monday. Analysts are projecting first-quarter revenue up 13% year-over-year to $17.06 billion along with earnings of $16.52 per share. Several other banks are set to follow with their own results later this week, with executives expected to weigh in on an uncertain economy that is seeing inflation driven by the Iran war and worsening consumer sentiment. Investors will be looking to the bank earnings for indications about the health of the American consumer and viewpoints on how executives like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon see the economy faring this year.

Busy Week Ahead as Earnings Season Ramps Up With Big Banks in Focus

Among the other banks reporting later this week are JPMorgan, Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC), all on Tuesday, and Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) on Wednesday. Investors will also get a look at the tech sector, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) and Netflix (NFLX) reporting this week, and the grocery industry, with Albertsons (ACI) and Pepsico (PEP) set to post results. Several economic reports are also due out this week, from existing home sales today to the Producer Price Index tomorrow and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on Wednesday.

JPMorgan Chase is slated to report results shortly after CEO Jamie Dimon laid out economic risks.
Credit: John Lamparski / Getty Images

Questions about whether the U.S. has reached an enduring resolution with Iran—and what it means for oil—continue to dog investors. Meanwhile, big banks will release results that shed light on how the conflict has impacted the economy following last Friday's inflation data.

Late Saturday night, Vice President JD Vance said that the U.S. and Iran had failed to reach a peace deal after marathon talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, because Tehran refused to agree not to develop a nuclear weapon. "The meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not," President Donald Trump wrote Sunday morning on Truth Social. "Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz."

Goldman Sachs is slated to report Monday, followed by JPMorgan Chase on Tuesday and Bank of America on Wednesday. Investors will watch for shifts in trading activity, as well as changes in the corporate appetite for mergers and acquisitions and IPOs.

Bank executives also often share broad outlooks on the U.S. economy; JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently said he is wary of a potential “tipping point.” 

Financial service firms can also offer perspective on how consumers are faring, including how they are responding to last month's rise in inflation. (Another perspective on Americans' financial well-being could come from supermarket chain Albertsons, which reports Tuesday.)

Updates on demand for AI are also on the docket. ASML, a chipmaking equipment giant, is slated to release first-quarter results Wednesday, followed by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Thursday. The latter-company pre-reported March revenues last week, signaling continued strong demand for AI chips and related products.

Market Recap

Stocks ended the week higher after markets reacted to the two-week ceasefire between the U.S., Israel and Iran, and the CPI report. For the week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow ended up 4.7%, 3.6%, and 3%, respectively, overshadowing a more restrained Friday session that followed the CPI report. The indexes logged a second-consecutive weekly gain after five weeks in the read. Read Friday's markets recap here.

This Week's Top Events

Here are some of the most significant events scheduled for the week ahead. TradingView publishes a more exhaustive rundown; clicking that link will take you off the Investopedia site.

• Monday, April 13. Goldman Sachs Group (GS) is slated to release first-quarter results before the bell, followed by a conference call at 9:30 a.m. ET.
• Tuesday, April 14. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is set to release first-quarter results at 7 a.m. ET and host a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET.
• Tuesday: Albertsons (ACI) is scheduled to publish fiscal fourth-quarter (ended Feb. 28) results before the bell, followed by a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET. The grocer has said that consumers are focused on finding value at the supermarket.
• Wednesday, April 15. Bank of America (BAC) is set to release first-quarter results and then address investors at 8:30 a.m. ET.
• Wednesday: ASML, listed in the U.S. with the ticker "ASML", is slated to discuss its first-quarter results on an 8:00 a.m. ET. conference call. (The Netherlands-based company will hand in its numbers hours earlier.) The chip equipment supplier previously said it expects demand from outside of China to ensure 2026 sales don't come in below 2025 figures.
• Thursday, April 16. PepsiCo (PEP) is scheduled to release first-quarter results at 6 a.m. ET and host a conference call at 8:15 a.m. ET. This fall, activist investor Elliott Investment Management announced it had a $4 billion stake in Pepsi, which has lowered some prices as part of a new strategy.
• Thursday: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is set to discuss its first-quarter results on a conference call at 2 p.m. ET. In January, the contract chipmaker reported record quarterly numbers and bolstered investors' confidence in demand for AI chips.

More Investopedia Reads

Many investors seem to be acting as though the conflict with Iran is already over, Crystal Kim reported. Mortgage rates have receded a bit lately, notes Sabrina Karl, which may cheer hopeful homebuyers. And don't forget, as Elizabeth Guevara writes, that the tax filing deadline is now just days away.

Consumer sentiment has plummeted as the war intensified in Iran.
Credit: Bing Guan / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Consumer sentiment fell to its lowest on record in April as the Iran war pushed up gas prices and fueled uncertainty.
• The survey took place mainly before the ceasefire was announced this week, so it could improve in coming months.
• The latest wave of dissatisfaction was because of the Iran war, but longer-running concerns include tariffs and the high cost of living.

Not during the COVID-19 shutdowns, nor the surge of inflation that followed; not during the double-digit unemployment and energy crises of the 1970s; not during the economic downturn of the 1980s; not even during the Great Recession, have Americans ever felt worse about the economy and their personal finances.

That's according to the University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment, which plunged 11% to an all-time low of 47.6 in April in the survey going back to 1952, as the Iran war pushed up gasoline prices and threatened the overall economic outlook. The index is based on a survey of U.S. adults about their views on inflation, the job market, whether they plan to make major purchases, and other financial matters. The index dropped among most demographic and all political groups in April.

"Open-ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy," Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu wrote in a blog post accompanying the data release.

What This Means For The Economy

The overall economy could suffer if those ill feelings about financial matters translate into reduced consumer spending.

The dismal reading could be as low as it gets for the time being: 98% of the surveys were completed before April 7, when a temporary ceasefire took hold and raised hopes the conflict, and its economic disruptions, could end soon, Hsu noted.

Still, the results highlighted how the Iran war was the latest straw on an already sky-high pile of economic discontents. The index had been flirting with record lows even before the war broke out at the end of February. Persistent concerns include uncertainty about tariff policy since President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements last April, a job market where employers are reluctant to hire, and inflation that's run above the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target for five years.

"Depressed consumer sentiment reflects an elevated level of uncertainty regarding trade policy and the conflict in the Middle East, affordability challenges, and very little job growth since Liberation Day," Jay Hawkins, senior economist at PNC, wrote in a commentary. "As a result, consumer sentiment is expected to remain depressed in the near term, although a permanent end to the hostilities in the Middle East could boost sentiment."

Economists monitor consumer sentiment because it's linked—albeit imperfectly—to decisions people make about how much to spend. Falling consumer sentiment can go along with reductions in consumer spending, which is the main engine of economic growth in the U.S.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang forecast the company will sell $1 trillion of its most advanced chips by the end of 2027.
Credit: David Paul Morris / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported record quarterly revenue on Friday, the latest sign that AI chip demand remains hot.
• Strong demand has buoyed the shares of chip manufacturing equipment suppliers this year, while AI chip designers like Nvidia and Broadcom have lagged.

AI chips are still in high demand. Earnings reports in the next few weeks will show if that's good enough for investors.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the world’s largest contract chipmaker, on Friday reported record quarterly revenue of approximately NT$1.13 trillion, or about $35.6 billion, a 35% increase from last year. TSMC is one of the only companies in the world capable of manufacturing the advanced semiconductors that power frontier artificial intelligence models, and its revenue has soared amid the AI data center boom. 

TSMC’s revenue report is the latest sign that, more than three years after the release of ChatGPT, demand for AI chips remains red hot. Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang, at a company conference last month, forecast its two most advanced offerings, Blackwell and Vera Rubin, would generate $1 trillion in sales by the end of 2027. 

Why This Matters to Investors

Spending on artificial intelligence has been vital for the economy and the stock market over the past three years. Evidence that spending remains strong should support the AI rally, but the leaders that rally could change as investor sentiment shifts and new bottlenecks emerge.

Many of Nvidia’s biggest customers are developing their own chips to keep up with demand while controlling costs and reducing their reliance on Nvidia hardware.

Custom chip designer Broadcom (AVGO) announced earlier this week it had extended its agreement to make specialized AI accelerators for Alphabet’s (GOOG) Google. Amazon (AMZN) CEO Andy Jassy on Thursday wrote that the company’s AI chip business was “on fire.” Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk last month announced plans for his companies to construct a chip manufacturing facility, saying there was no other way to get all the chips they need.

The race to develop and produce sophisticated semiconductors has been a boon to the semicap equipment industry, which develops the machines that fabricators like TSMC use to make semiconductors. Chip makers and designers including TSMC and Micron (MU) expect to spend significantly more on manufacturing capacity this year due to booming demand. Wall Street analysts expect wafer fabrication equipment sales to top $170 billion next year, more than the industry itself has forecast, according to a Deutsche Bank note Friday. 

Wall Street’s expectations have followed revenue estimates higher. Semicap shares are up about 50% since the start of the year, putting valuations about 50% above the long-term average, according to Deutsche Bank. The run-up has created “an admittedly difficult setup into earnings,” which will be reported over the course of the next month. But Deutsche Bank expects the urgency of the AI buildout to remain a strong tailwind for companies like Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research Corp. (LRCX), and AMSL Holdings (ASML). 

“While the bar is high, we believe fundamental momentum will remain in semicaps’ favor in the coming quarters, helping the sub-sector to continue to outperform in 2026,” the analysts wrote. 

The major AI chip designers—Nvidia, Broadcom, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)—have lagged the broader market so far this year, which Deutsche Bank attributes to concerns about Big Tech’s AI investments and when they will pay off. They argue that the more pressure investors put on hyperscalers like Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet, and Meta (META) to prove their data centers are profitable, the greater the risk they rein in their spending on chips. 

That risk has lowered the bar for AI chip suppliers heading into their earnings reports over the next month, but Deutsche Bank notes the stocks may struggle to overcome those concerns. Its analysts, the bank wrote, "remain selective" with their AI recommendations, favoring “share-gaining leaders” like Broadcom.

“We believe the valuation compression across many of the AI-enabling names has become excessive, but we fail to find apparent semiconductor company-produced catalysts to reverse this trend,” they wrote, noting that strong results, splashy deals, and Nvidia’s developer conference all failed to shift investor sentiment earlier this year.

While commodities prices are stabilizing, consumers may not see relief at the pump as quickly.
Credit: Zhang Fengguo / Xinhua via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The record-breaking increases in gasoline prices during the Iran war will be slow to unwind, if at all, even if everything goes perfectly.
• Fuel prices follow oil prices, which could retreat in the coming months if and when ships resume carrying oil out of the Persian Gulf.
• Motorists can expect prices to fall by a few cents per day if this week's ceasefire holds.

If you've had to tighten your budget to pay for $4-a-gallon gas, don't expect to relax any time soon, despite this week's ceasefire in the Iran war.

Friday's Consumer Price Index data showed exactly how much surging gasoline prices pushed up the cost of living for U.S. households in March. The price of motor fuel rose 21.4% in a single month, a record-high increase in data going back to 1967.

The squeeze could linger for months. As the old saying goes, gasoline prices have a habit of rising like a rocket and falling like a feather. Economists and other experts say oil prices will be slow to drop after their initial retreat following the ceasefire news. Fuel prices are likely to retreat even more slowly, assuming tensions ease in the Middle East and ships resume sailing through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Even if a long-lasting deal to end the war is reached and the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, it would take months for oil, gasoline, diesel and other commodity supplies to snap back to pre-war levels and thus for prices to settle back to pre-conflict levels," Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, wrote in a commentary.

What This Means For The Economy

The economy must deal with the fallout from the oil shock for a long time to come. It could have ripple effects on inflation, consumer spending, and other major barometers of the health of the economy.

Nationwide, the average price of a gallon of regular gas fell two cents to $4.15 a gallon Friday, remaining well above the Feb. 28 price of $2.98, according to AAA. If tensions continue to ease in Iran, relief for drivers will come in similar drips and drabs, according to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

"Wholesale prices are volatile, but retail prices are averaged," he wrote on the X social media platform this week. "Stations raise prices quickly when costs jump to avoid losses, but when costs fall, they lower prices gradually as they sell through higher-priced inventory. So instead of prices bouncing wildly, what drivers see is actually a slower climb—and an even slower descent."

Falling fuel prices are far from guaranteed. Gas prices follow the cost of the oil from which it's refined, and the supply of that oil has been seriously restricted since the war began. The key to the disruption is the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial waterway that normally carries about 20% of the world's oil supply.

Ship traffic slowed to a trickle when the war broke out and still hadn't fully resumed as of Friday, according to news reports. That means higher oil and gas prices for the duration, however long that is. And once ships get moving again, it could take months for supply chains to recover.

"The duration of this shock remains uncertain, but even if the conflict were to end tomorrow—which is unlikely—it would take weeks or months for oil flows to normalize and much longer for the natural gas market to return to equilibrium,' Benjamin Tal, an economist at CIBC, wrote in a commentary. "By all accounts, we are in the midst of a significant oil shock."

So What's Next For Oil Prices?

Forecasters at Goldman Sachs laid out three scenarios for oil prices in the coming months.

In the best case, the war ends, traffic recovers, and crude oil prices fall, averaging $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter of the year, down from the current level of $96 as of Friday afternoon, according to the Brent international benchmark.

Should reopening the strait take another month, oil would average $100 a barrel. If things go even worse than that, oil could shoot back up to $115 a barrel average in the fourth quarter, the same as it was at the height of the crisis, according to an analysis by Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at the investment bank.

Investors' take on markets on the moment suggests bullishness and optimism.
Credit: Spencer Platt / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Investors are celebrating early even as an end to the war in Iran remains uncertain.
• Stocks are up for the week, the VIX is down, and prediction markets bettors put money on a return to normal by the end of June.

Investors are buying the de-escalation story.

The S&P 500 rose for seven straight days, only Friday snapping a winning streak U.S. stocks hadn't otherwise seen all year. Geopolitical tensions have eased, with the U.S. and Iran agreeing to a tentative ceasefire and headed into weekend negotiations, and investors are apparently betting on a return to normal soon—and celebrating early.

The Cboe VIX, also known as Wall Street's fear index, closed below 20, signaling stability. The U.S. dollar, a haven asset, fell, and risk assets, including bitcoin, are up. Prediction-market bettors see the end of June as the likeliest timeline for lower crude oil prices and the U.S. ending military operation in Iran—just over two months away.

WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU

Investors appear to be taking the investing maxim "buy the rumor, sell the news" to heart amid a tentative ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Market experts also appear to be positive, but one major hurdle before the "all clear" would be what the Federal Reserve does in the coming months.

Risks, of course, remain—among them whether the Strait of Hormuz actually reopens, and how the Federal Reserve, expected to transition to a new chair, will handle stubbornly high inflation. But for now, it seems, many investors are comfortable with them.

"The markets trade in the future," Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief investment officer and head of U.S. equity strategy, said in a Thursday interview with CNBC. "Maybe we might go lower here or there, but you know, the idea of putting the capital to work is not to call the exact day but call it when there's good risk/reward."

Prediction market bettors appear to be calling it. They place the highest odds, at 80%, that President Donald Trump announces an end to military operations against Iran by June 30. And they set a nearly 75% probability that crude oil prices will sink to $85—a level last seen in mid-March—or lower by the end of June.

Where crude prices go "will depend on the extend and speed of any recovery in traffic" at the Strait of Hormuz, according to Goldman Sachs. The firm's commodities strategists have not changed their medium-term forecasts for Brent, the global oil benchmark, to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter. That assumes traffic flow through the strait starts to rise over the weekend and for oil exports to return to pre-war levels over the next month, according to Daan Struyven, Goldman's head of global commodities research.

But that could change with events. "If the ceasefire doesn’t hold and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is postponed for a month, Brent could still average $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 provided oil production in the Persian Gulf fully recovers," he said. If things are worse than that, and there's a delay in the reopening, Brent prices could sit at $115 in the fourth quarter.

The "final hurdle" for investors to get past is the transition at the Federal Reserve, Morgan Stanley's Wilson said. Once the markets know who the new Fed Chair will be, investors will be able to look forward to the second half when the central bank will likely be more willing to cut rates as indicated by Trump nominee Kevin Warsh.

Traders aren't betting on rate cuts as decisively as they are on oil. Estimated probabilities of the Federal Reserve lowering benchmark rates by a quarter of a percentage point in September, are currently around 7%.

Another thing to keep in mind: While Macro Risk Advisors' John Kolovos on Thursday told CNBC there are "high odds the market low is in," stock corrections that happen in mid-term election years tend to occur in the back half, closer to September and October.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect the close of trading Friday.

Lumentum shares have more than doubled in value since the year began
Credit: Cheng Xin / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Nvidia-backed photonics and laser maker Lumentum said it's seeing booming demand from AI hyperscalers.
• CEO Michael Hurlston said the company could soon sell out of its production capacity through 2028.

Photonics and laser maker Lumentum's CEO said it's seen such strong AI-driven demand that it could sell out.

CEO Michael Hurlston told Bloomberg that the company, which counts AI chip leader Nvidia (NVDA) among its backers, could soon sell out of its production capacity through 2028, as Big Tech companies allocate "enormous" amounts of cash to the hardware needed for data centers. "There seems to be no end in sight," he said.

Shares of Lumentum (LITE) surged in early trading Friday following the comments, before pulling back in recent trading.

Why This Matters to Investors

The CEO's latest comments add to strong signals for Lumentum's outlook, and could point to more gains ahead for its stock.

Lumentum and many of its peers have seen their stocks surge in recent months as demand for their networking products has soared to connect equipment in AI data centers. Hurlston told Bloomberg there looks to be "a decent amount of sustainability in the cycle for at least five years."

Lumentum and Coherent (COHR) shares also got a boost last month after Nvidia announced investments in the companies and their stocks were added to the S&P 500.

With its recent gains, Lumentum shares up more than 140% this year, and 1,600% in the last 12 months.

Shares of Organon got a lift early Friday from a report of a possible takeover.
Credit: Sheldon Cooper / SOPA Images / LightRocket / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Organon shares surged Friday following reports India’s Sun Pharmaceutical made a bid for the women's healthcare company.
• Shares of Organon were down roughly 40% over the past year heading into Friday's session.

Organon shares are popping Friday on signs of a takeover deal.

Shares of the women's healthcare were recently 15% higher premarket following a report that India's Sun Pharmaceutical Industries submitted a binding offer to take over the Jersey City, N.J.-based firm. Shares of Organon entered the day down roughly 3.5% this year and were off some 40% over the past 12 months.

Organon (OGN) rose after Indian publication The Economic Times, citing "people in the know," said that Sun "has decided to proceed with a binding offer of $12 billion" for Organon. Organon has a market value near $2 billion, according to Visible Alpha, and an enterprise value above $9 billion.

Organon did not respond to Investopedia's request for comment in time for publication.

The Times said the offer brings Sun Pharmaceutical "to the final stages of its most ambitious overseas acquisition bid as it looks to become a branded and innovative drug-making powerhouse."

Organon in February reported 2025 revenue of over 6% billion, down 3% year-over-year, and projected similar sales this year.