Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

Recent volatility and the deep selloff in many widely held tech stocks have not scared individual investors away.
Credit: Pekic / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Oil prices have surged 47% since the war in Iran began, driving inflation fears and pushing major stock indexes into correction territory.
• Nearly half of surveyed investors are buying the dip in popular stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia despite market volatility.
• A growing number of investors expect the stock market to decline further, with 27% predicting a 10% or greater drop in the next six months.

A historic spike in oil prices and a correction for the Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq amid the war in Iran have rattled the capital markets, but individual investors say they are weathering the storm and, in some cases, buying the dips in some of their favorite stocks, according to our recent sentiment survey. While anxiety and skepticism are on the rise, nearly half of respondents say they are still cautiously optimistic, or optimistic about their investments. 

War and Geopolitics Dominate Walls of Worry

The war in Iran and the uncertainty over the future of the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices dominate investors’ list of concerns lately, and for good reason. The 47% surge in oil prices since the war began was the largest price spike for crude in history, and the ripple effects helped push the Dow and Nasdaq into correction territory. Investors know from history that oil supply disruptions quickly lead to inflation, and sometimes a recession. It’s no surprise that inflation and a recession are also among the top five of respondents’ concerns. Over one-third of respondents believe there is a 50-50 chance of a recession in the next six months.

Curbing Their Expectations, But Making Few Changes

The recent selloff across most sectors of the stock market - except for Energy and Defense stocks—along with more geopolitical uncertainty—has prompted a growing number of respondents to curb their expectations for returns over the next six months. Less than a quarter of respondents expect stock market returns of over 5% over the next two quarters, while a growing number, 27%, expect the market to fall another 10% or more in that same time frame. 

That said, few respondents admit to changing the amount they invest or what they are buying amid the volatility and the big selloffs in widely-held stocks like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA).

Buying Dips In Classics

The profound selloff in the biggest stocks, especially members of the Magnificent 7 like Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN), has presented a buying opportunity for investors looking for a deal.  Nearly half of respondents say they have been buying into the weakness in those stocks in hopes that their worst days are behind them. The most widely bought stocks among individual investors throughout March include popular holdings like Apple and Nvidia, as well as Microsoft, Micron (MU), and Nvidia, according to Schwab.

Conversely, individual investors have been selling chipmakers like Broadcom (AVG), and AMD (AMD), as well as oil giant Occidental Petroleum (OXY).

What Stocks Have Individual Investors Been Buying?

• AAPL
• NVDA
• MSFT
• TSLA
• MU
• AMZN

What Stocks Have Individual Investors Been Selling?

• AVGO
• NFLX
• AMD
• CRCL
• OXY

Buying Into Bubbles

AI stocks, which powered the stock market’s historic performance from November 2022 to November of 2025, are still considered overvalued by most respondents. Cryptocurrency and Gold are next on the list of frothy assets, but Mega-cap Tech stocks have fallen down the list with just over one-third of respondents indicating they are in a bubble.

What's In Your Portfolio

Individual investors are slow to make changes in their portfolios, especially when their top holdings have performed so well over the past decade. They are also willing to hold those same stocks and continue buying them, even if they believe many are still overvalued. The top holdings among our respondents remained little changed since our last survey, and for the past several years. 

Credit: InvestopediaWhat Would You Do With an Extra $10,000?

The selloff in the stock market has not cooled investors’ risk appetites, especially if they had an extra $10,000 on hand. Individual stocks remain our respondents’ top choice for what they would do with that extra cash now, and given that nearly half said they have been buying the dip in their favorite stocks, it appears that many have already put that plan into action. 

Inflation has been stubbornly above the Fed's target for almost five years.
Credit: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Consumer prices rose 3% over 12 months in February, ahead of the Iran war, according to the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index.
• The index is the benchmark the Federal Reserve uses to determine whether inflation is at its target of 2% annual rate.
• The Consumer Price Index data due Friday will provide a more up-to-date picture of how the Iran war has influenced inflation.

Inflation was running a bit hot for the Federal Reserve's comfort earlier this year, and that was before the Iran war pushed the price of gasoline through the roof.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index excluding the volatile prices for food and energy rose 3% over 12 months in February, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday. That's down from a 3.1%increase as January.

The increase matched forecasters' expectations, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. Including food and gas, the index rose 2.8%, the same as in January and also in line with expectations.

Among the different ways the government's statistical agencies measure inflation, core PCE is especially significant because it's the benchmark the Federal Reserve uses for its 2% annual target.

February was the 60th month in a row that inflation has been above target after surging in the aftermath of the pandemic in 2021.

The latest data on PCE inflation provide a snapshot of prices ahead of the Iran war, which has pushed up the cost of fuel by more than a dollar a gallon due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, blocking oil from leaving the Persian Gulf. Higher transportation costs could stoke inflation for other products as well.

What This Means For The Economy

High inflation lowers the likelihood the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in an effort to boost the faltering job market.

“Consumer inflation was firming even prior to the outbreak of war in the Middle East, and it is primed to jump sharply higher in March,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, wrote in a commentary. "Even if a long-lasting deal to end the war is reached, and the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, it would take months for oil, gasoline, diesel, and other commodity supplies to snap back to pre-war levels and thus for prices to settle back to pre-conflict levels. The elevated energy and commodity prices will weigh on consumer discretionary spending and lift inflation, especially in the near-term."

The PCE data release was delayed because the BEA is still playing catch-up after the government shutdown late last year. The Consumer Price Index for March, due to be released Friday, will provide a more up-to-date picture, but the Fed considers PCE a more reliable inflation measure.

Before the war, Fed officials were closely studying the effects of tariffs, which had pushed up prices for many products, while real estate price pressures eased, keeping housing inflation in check. Overall, with those two forces counteracting one another, inflation has stayed high but not risen severely since 2025.

The trajectory of PCE inflation will likely influence the decision-making of Fed officials as they consider whether to lower, raise, or do nothing with the central bank's key interest rate in the coming months.

All three options are possible, according to recent communications from Fed officials, depending on how the Iran war affects the economy. The Fed's policy committee could raise interest rates if inflation rises sharply and threatens to get out of control. It could cut rates if the uncertainty surrounding the war causes a surge of unemployment. Or it could sit on the fence as the two risks to its dual mandate from Congress—keeping inflation low and employment high—remain roughly balanced. So far, this year, the Fed has taken the latter option.

Meta had struck a similar deal with CoreWeave back in September 2025 for up to $14.2 billion of AI cloud capacity.
Credit: Samuel Boivin / NurPhoto via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Shares of cloud provider CoreWeave were rising in premarket trading Thursday, on track to extend their 2026 gains.
• The shares rose on news of an extended and expanded deal to provide AI cloud capacity to Meta.

A multibillion-dollar commitment from a Magnificent Seven company is lifting shares of CoreWeave this morning.

Shares of cloud provider CoreWeave (CRWV) were rising in premarket trading Thursday, on track to extend their 2026 gains, after it and Meta Platforms (META) announced an expanded agreement that will see CoreWeave provide AI cloud capacity to the Facebook parent Meta through December 2032, a deal worth about $21 billion.

The deal expands and extends a roughly $14 billion deal the companies announced last September.

During its most recent quarterly earnings report, in January, Meta said it anticipated between $115 billion and $135 billion in 2026 capital expenditures. Last month, Meta said it would be increasing its investment in an El Paso, Texas, data center to more than $10 billion.

"They're going to continue to do it themselves, but they're also going to continue to do it with us," CoreWeave co-found and CEO Michael Intrator told CNBC. "There's just too much risk not to."

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA)-backed CoreWeave, which entered Thursday up nearly 25% this year, advanced 3% in premarket trading. Meta shares, which are down 7% in 2026, rose 2% before the bell.

News of the day for April 9, 2026

The major indexes each surged Wednesday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a temporary ceasefire.
Credit: Charly Triballeau / AFP / Getty Images

Stocks are losing ground Thursday morning after yesterday's relief rally.

Disagreements over this week's U.S.-Iran ceasefire's terms about Israel's fighting in Lebanon and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have put the deal on edge, sending oil prices higher; The February PCE report is scheduled for release this morning, giving investors another look at the state of the economy before the Iran war started; Disney is planning a round of layoffs weeks after its new CEO took over; Constellation Brands forecast profits below Wall Street's expectations as Americans are searching for value and drinking less alcohol.

Here's what you need to know today.

Stock Futures Point Lower as Ceasefire Deal Looks Uncertain

Stock futures are pointing slightly lower as a lack of certainty around the ceasefire in Iran looks to be preventing Wednesday's big gains from continuing. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were off 0.5%, while those tied to the S&P 500 were off 0.4% and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.3%. All three indexes jumped yesterday as markets cheered the ceasefire pact news, but ongoing attacks from Israel in Lebanon and public disagreements over the terms have revealed cracks in the deal. Gold futures are down fractionally to roughly $4,770 an ounce. The 10-year Treasury yield is inching lower to 4.29% from yesterday's close of 4.30%, and Bitcoin is trading around $71,300 after approaching the $73,000 mark during Wednesday's rally.

Oil Rising Again as Investors Consider Path Ahead in Hormuz

Crude oil futures are back on the rise after sinking yesterday, rising 5% to $99 per barrel this morning. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire would only take place with the condition of the Strait of Hormuz being reopened, but the U.S. and Iran appeared to disagree over whether that meant the strait would be free to cross or if ships would have to pay Iran a new toll. Data shows that only four ships with trackers on passed through the strait yesterday, The Associated Press reported. Iran told mediators that it will limit traffic to around a dozen ships per day and charge tolls for moving through the critical waterway, per The Wall Street Journal. Talks on a longer-term deal are set to begin in Pakistan tomorrow.

PCE Report Due Out Today to Show Inflation Before Iran War

Investors will get more data about what the economy looked like before the U.S. and Israel launched the war in Iran today. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for February is due out at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric is expected to show inflation rose 2.8% year-over-year, the same as in January, while month-over-month inflation is seen at 0.4%, up from 0.3% in January, per a survey from economists by Dow Jones Newswires. While the war is expected to have stoked inflation with soaring gas prices lifting the cost of other goods, the final pre-war report will provide Fed officials with information on how healthy the economy was before the conflict started as the central bank makes decisions on where interest rates should go over the rest of the year.

Disney Planning Layoffs Under New CEO D'Amaro, Report Says

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is planning a round of layoffs after new CEO Josh D'Amaro took over last month, The Wall Street Journal reported late Wednesday. The cuts, of up to 1,000 employees, are expected to be concentrated in the marketing department, which was recently restructured to align the teams for sports, entertainment, and experiences under one top executive, the Journal reported. The report said that the layoffs have been planned since before D'Amaro took over, as Disney has cut thousands of jobs in recent years to focus on areas of solid growth like its theme parks and cruises. Disney shares were little changed ahead of the opening bell.

Constellation Brands Earnings Hurt By Americans Drinking Less, Hunting For Value

Constellation Brands (STZ) posted better-than-expected results for its fiscal fourth quarter after the closing bell Wednesday, but the alcohol giant's report wasn't all good news. The maker of Modelo and Corona beers, along with dozens of other wine and spirit brands, reported $1.92 billion in quarterly revenue, down 11% year-over-year, along with adjusted earnings per share of $1.90. Both figures were above estimates. Constellation's full-year revenue fell 10% as financial pressures on Americans are continuing to keep demand for alcohol lower, along with longer-term trends like younger Americans drinking less than their older counterparts. Constellation's fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS forecast was lowered and came in under the analyst consensus, and the company withdrew its 2028 outlook. Constellation shares were down less than 1% premarket.

Oil prices tumbled on Wednesday after the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire.
Credit: Thomas G Weber / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Oil prices slumped on Wednesday on hopes that a two-week ceasefire in Iran could pave the way to a resumption of oil production and flows in the Middle East.
• Experts warn that production cuts across the region will take time to undo, restricting supply, while the global race to replenish inventories will boost demand, keeping prices elevated.

It took Iran no time at all to cause the largest oil shock in history. Undoing it won't be easy.

It might have seemed that way today. Oil prices plummeted Wednesday after the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire investors hope will bring an end to the conflict that’s disrupted Middle East oil production and shipping. West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, were down more than 16% at about $94 a barrel Wednesday afternoon. Brent crude, the global benchmark, also logged a double-digit decline.  

Prices, however remain well above pre-war levels, a reflection of the uncertainty still hanging over markets—as well as the businesses and people who rely on oil. West Texas Intermediate is up more than 40% since late February and Brent up 30%. 

Why This Is Important

Oil prices and their impact on inflation were likely a key driver of the U.S. decision to announce a two-week ceasefire with Iran. But experts warn that it will take months for supply to return to pre-war levels, and many other factors could keep prices higher long-term.

As part of the agreement, Iran has promised to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed before Iran closed it in early March. The country reportedly plans to charge all ships transiting the strait during the ceasefire a $1 per barrel toll, to be paid in cryptocurrency. Traffic through the strait reportedly remained at a standstill on Wednesday.

Analysts at S&P Global Commodities at Sea forecast traffic through the strait “may climb over the next week to 25% of the pre-war total,” up from 10% during the conflict. At that pace, they estimate, most of the roughly 500 ships carrying oil, gas, and other chemical products through the Persian Gulf should be able to exit it in the next two weeks.  

But experts say all forecasts should be taken with a large grain of salt. “Just as we had never before seen the strait close, we’ve never seen it reopen,” said Tristan Abbey, administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in the agency’s monthly energy report on Tuesday. “Full restoration of flows will take months."

Forecasts of strait traffic assume that the ceasefire lasts two weeks. Israel on Wednesday continued to strike Lebanon, violence the cessation of which Iran made a condition of the ceasefire. Citing that and other alleged ceasefire violations, the speaker of Iran’s parliament on Wednesday called the existing agreement and future peace negotiations “unreasonable.”

Experts say oil prices are likely to remain above pre-war levels regardless of what happens with the strait. “Given disruptions to key infrastructure and a view that the risk premium in the barrel remains elevated, I expect a higher floor price on oil,” said Noah Barrett, research analyst at Janus Henderson, in a note on Wednesday. 

The closure of the strait has forced a dramatic cut in oil production that will take time to reverse. The Energy Information Administration estimates six of the region’s biggest producers slashed production by 7.5 million barrels per day in March. Assuming the war doesn’t resume in two weeks, the EIA expects the region’s oil production won’t approach pre-war levels until late in the year. Damage to its energy infrastructure, including the world’s largest liquefied natural gas facility in Qatar, will also prevent supply from returning as quickly as it was lost. 

Some predict the conflict has set the stage for higher oil prices for years to come. Parag Sanghani, senior portfolio manager at Westwood, argued =Wednesday that the conflict has hastened oil’s transition from a “supply-driven” market characterized by excess supply, soft demand, and low prices to a “demand-driven” one.

The war has starved the world of an estimated 300 million barrels of oil, depleting inventories that buyers, now aware of the market’s fragility, will want to replenish as soon as possible. Sanghani warns that could hasten the oil market’s transition into a cycle characterized by rising prices. 

Even with Wednesday's gains, Meta shares are still down about 7% from where they started the year.
Credit: Joan Cros / NurPhoto / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Meta stock led the Magnificent Seven higher Wednesday, amid a broad market rally after the U.S. and Iran reached a ceasefire deal.
• The Facebook parent on Wednesday announced its latest AI model called Muse Spark.

One Magnificent Seven stock's gains stood out from its fellow tech giants today.

Meta Platforms (META) stock jumped nearly 7%, making it the best-performing Magnificent Seven member and one of the biggest Nasdaq and S&P 500 gainers, on a day when markets rallied broadly after the U.S. and Iran reached a ceasefire deal. Helping give the Facebook and Instagram parent an edge: Meta announced its latest AI model called Muse Spark.

In a blog post, Meta reported a range of benchmark test scores for the model suggesting it performed on par with or better than many rivals, including OpenAI's ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude, Grok from Elon Musk's xAI, and Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google Gemini. Meta said the model is powering its Meta AI chatbot in the U.S. as of today, and that it plans to bring the model to more countries, social media platforms, and its Meta AI glasses in the coming weeks.

Why This Matters to Investors

Meta's latest AI model could help ease concerns about the company's competitiveness and boost confidence in its stock after a tough start to the year.

Muse Spark is the first model produced by Meta's Superintelligence division, which was the result of last year's expensive hiring spree by CEO Mark Zuckerberg. In recent months, Meta has also conducted layoffs in its AI operations amid pressure to cut costs as the company and its peers spend heavily on building out their data centers.

Some of Meta's early successes with AI so far have been in areas where it already has an edge, such as with tools to help advertisers create ads and target groups of users. The company is also looking to grow its AI features within its social media platforms and with its Ray-Ban smart glasses.

The new model could help drive some fresh enthusiasm for Meta's stock, which has lingered in negative territory for much of the year. Even with Wednesday's gains, the stock is still down about 7% for 2026.

Workers whose jobs are replaced by AI may have the job loss follow them.
Credit: Matthew Chattle / Future Publishing via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Workers displaced by technological change have a worse time in the job market than people hit with ordinary layoffs, according to a new analysis.
• Tech-displaced workers earned 10 percentage points less in inflation-adjusted wages compared to their counterparts who kept their jobs, Goldman Sachs economists found.
• The research suggests people who lose their positions to the adoption of AI software will have an uphill battle to rebuild their careers.

Economists say few people are losing their jobs outright to artificial intelligence. But if you do, the hit to your career could be worse than a regular layoff.

That's according to a new analysis by economists at Goldman Sachs who studied what happened to people who lost their jobs to past waves of technological change. It turns out those workers, on average, had longer periods of unemployment, lower earnings, and even bought houses and started families later than people who got laid off in fields unaffected by new technology.

The research sheds light on what might happen to workers who are put out of a job if artificial intelligence can replace human labor across wide swaths of the job market, especially in white-collar knowledge-worker occupations.

What This Means For The Economy

If forecasts play out that as many as 7% of workers lose their jobs to AI, this could have serious consequences for the job market and the ability of consumer spending to support economic growth.

Workers laid off due to technological change took one month longer to find a new job than their counterparts who were otherwise displaced.

Workers laid off because of technology had inflation-adjusted wages that were 3% lower when they got new jobs, possibly because the technological changes eroded the value of their skills, Goldman economists Pierfrancesco Mei and Jessica Rindels wrote in the paper, published this week.

The effects persisted for at least ten years after the tech-related layoff. Tech-displaced workers' salaries grew 10 percentage points less over that time than people who weren't laid off, and 5 percentage points less than people who lost their jobs for non-tech reasons.

People aged 25 to 35 who were affected by such layoffs had lower odds of owning a home or getting married afterward, the analysis found. The effect was worse when layoffs occurred during a recession.

"AI-driven displacement could impose lasting costs on affected workers, with substantially larger effects when job losses coincide with a recession," Mei and Rindels wrote.

In a bit of a silver lining for younger workers, early-career professionals recovered better than those who had been in their positions for a long time, possibly because the longer-term workers had developed more skills that had become obsolete.

That's good news for entry-level workers, who are among the first to see job opportunities dwindle as AI adoption increases.


"Contrary to current concerns that the costs of AI will fall especially hard on new graduates, younger workers have actually been able to adjust more flexibly through occupational mobility and skill upgrading in the past," they wrote.

Although economists see little evidence that AI is currently replacing workers at a large scale—the unemployment rate remains at a historically low level, after all—if the technology pans out as its proponents say, it could eventually displace 6% to 7% of all workers in the next decade, forecasters at Goldman estimate.

Jerome Powell and his colleagues have said they are watching developments in the Iran war to help determine their course of action.
Credit: Mel Musto / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Chances of a Fed rate cut in 2026 rose slightly on optimism that the ceasefire in the Iran war will push down energy costs and lower inflation.
• At their most recent meeting, Fed officials said their actions depend heavily on developments in the Middle East and their impact on the U.S. economy.
• The war threatens to push up inflation by raising fuel costs while also hurting the job market by raising uncertainty.

Minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Reserve's policy committee confirmed what officials have said in recent remarks: that the chances of the Fed cutting rates at any point this year hinge on developments in the Middle East and how they affect the U.S. economy.

If you're counting on the Federal Reserve to tamp down borrowing costs by lowering its benchmark interest rate at some point this year, the odds are not in your favor. As of Wednesday afternoon, financial markets were pricing in a 25% chance of a Fed rate cut by December, up slightly from 14% the day before.

Traders have become more optimistic about inflation after the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire, raising the possibility that oil shipments could resume in the Persian Gulf and help defuse the energy crisis caused by the conflict.

The trajectory of consumer prices depends heavily on developments in the Middle East, economists say. Especially important is whether the crucial Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman is reopened to shipping. An estimated 20% of the world's oil supply passes through the strait each year.

According to the Fed meeting minutes released Wednesday, officials were in the same boat as the general public last month, waiting to see how the war unfolded. Fed officials opted to keep the central bank's key interest rate flat in their March meeting, and are widely expected to do so again at their next meeting on April 28 and 29.

What This Means For The Economy

The trajectory of the economy largely depends on the outcome of the war against Iran, especially on whether oil shipments through the Persian Gulf return to prewar levels.

"Most participants commented that it was too early to know how developments in the Middle East would affect the U.S. economy and judged it prudent to continue to monitor the situation and assess the implications for the appropriate stance of monetary policy," the minutes said.

In the minutes, FOMC members touched on the same themes as recent public speeches: that the war could push up prices and reduce job growth, threatening both sides of the central bank's dual mandate to keep inflation under control and employment stable.

Those two challenges are pulling the Fed's policy in opposite directions. The central bank would normally raise its benchmark interest rate to fight inflation, pushing up borrowing costs across all kinds of loans. In the opposite case, officials would lower the rate to put easy money into the economy and boost hiring.

What the Fed does next depends on whether inflation or unemployment poses the greater risk to the economy. In the meantime, they're staying in situation-monitoring mode.

"Participants emphasized the importance of being nimble in adjusting the stance of policy in response to incoming data," the minutes said.

The price of gold has risen today. Experts think another move higher could hinge on the Fed.
Credit: Nasir Kachroo / NurPhoto via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• A two-week ceasefire brokered by a regional mediator drove gold prices higher, with the precious metal recently trading around $4,770; silver also rallied to around $76.
• Market strategists say that gold will rally again when perceived risk of central bank interest-rate hikes dissipate.

Eased tensions in the Middle East mean easy money for gold investors—for now.

Precious metals rallied Wednesday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week truce hours before a stated deadline for Tehran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices rallied to $4,770 as the U.S. dollar, which tends to have an inverse relationship with the yellow metal, dipped. Silver also got a reprieve, climbing to a recent price of roughly $76.

Gold's recovery was helped by falling crude oil prices, which could ease inflation and lower the odds of central banks raising interest rates. Experts said gold prices could rise further if markets start to price in lower risk of central bank rate hikes, which some market watchers have recently said might be on the table if inflation proved more stubborn than hoped.

WHY THIS MATTERS TO INVESTORS

The two-week ceasefire is proving helpful to the losing trades of the war in Iran, like gold, but market strategists say it'll take more to make the precious metal truly shine.

Traders have lately lifted the perceived probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates this year—but also lowered the odds of a hike. Chances of the benchmark rate being lowered by a quarter of a percentage point by late October have risen to just over 15%, up from yesterday's 3.7%, according to CME FedWatch. There's about a 0.5% chance the Fed moves rates in the other direction that month, down from near 6% yesterday.

"Over the medium term, if the market shifts toward pricing less risk of rate hikes, while geopolitical and fiscal risk stay high, we would expect gold prices to rise again," UBS's chief investment office said Wednesday, reiterating a year-end target of $5,900 per ounce that implies about 20% upside from recent prices and would represent a record.

Global gold funds such as the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) are showing signs of life since the start of the war in Iran. World gold-backed ETFs posted 9 tons of gold inflows, worth about $1.4 billion based on recent prices, for the week ended April 3—the highest since the end of February, according to the Kobeissi Letter, which provides capital markets commentary. That influx of fresh money followed four consecutive weeks of outflows seen amid the warring in the Middle East.

"Investors are rotating back into precious metals," the firm said in a social media post on Wednesday.

For others, the upside in gold is linked to a much larger, slower trend in the making: The end of dollar supremacy. As debts and deficits grow, gold becomes more attractive, and that's part of the trade, Gabelli Asset Management's Chris Mancini said earlier this week.

"We're going through a big, I think, paradigm change in terms of the de-dollarization of global reserves," he said in an interview with CNBC on Monday, describing central banks' recent moves toward higher gold allocations. Mancini says gold prices could eventually move above $6,000.

Stocks surged on Wednesday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.
Credit: Angela Weiss / AFP via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Stocks surged and oil prices plummeted on Wednesday after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, stoking optimism that the conflict and its subsequent oil shock will end soon.
• Some experts warn the obstacles to a lasting peace are sizable, and recommend investors continue to exercise ample caution.

After six weeks of holding their breath, investors are letting out a big sigh of relief—and buying stocks.

President Donald Trump late Tuesday— just 90 minutes before his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face destruction— announced a two-week ceasefire. Wall Street on Wednesday was optimistic that the pause in fighting could pave the way to a resolution of the conflict that’s created one of the worst oil shocks in history and weighed heavily on stocks.

The S&P 500 was recently up 2.5% to its highest level in a month. Crude oil futures, meanwhile, plummeted more than 15% and Treasury yields dropped sharply. (Follow Investopedia's coverage of today's trading here.)

Why This Is Important

The war in Iran has weighed on stocks for the past six weeks because of soaring oil prices and uncertainty about its direction and duration. Tuesday's ceasefire has eased oil prices, but experts warn it does little to alleviate uncertainty looming over markets beyond the next two weeks.

The ceasefire announcement "strongly sets the stage for near-term peace in the Middle East,” wrote analysts at Wolfe Research in a note on Wednesday in which they said they expected the S&P 500 to head back toward its record high around 7000. "We dial up risk exposures," they wrote.

“Breaching 7,000 feels likely as euphoria returns to markets,” wrote Andrew Tyler, JPMorgan’s had of global market intelligence.

Stocks had fallen nearly 8% during the war, weighed down by soaring oil prices and uncertainty about the conflict’s impact on inflation, consumer spending, and interest rates. A relief rally last week and Wednesday’s gains put stocks just a couple of percentage points off their pre-war levels. 

“Strong fundamentals can shine through when geopolitical clouds clear,” said Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, on Wednesday. Even when there was no end to the war in sight, Wall Street was optimistic about the upcoming earnings season, during which analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report double-digit profit growth as a group.  

Big Tech’s AI infrastructure spending, a tailwind for the economy and stocks before the war began, is expected to continue to support healthy growth and stock returns. “We’d be buying [Technology, Media, and Telecoms] with a Semis focus (market leadership), Industrials (AI thematic), and Discretionary (names levered to lower gas prices) on this bounce,” wrote Wolfe’s analysts. 

Some investors, however, remain cautious, mindful that events could turn.

“A near-term reprieve in the Iran conflict will not erase medium-term and strategic tensions,” wrote Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier, chief strategist of Daily Insights at BCA Research. Iran’s nuclear program and its control of the Strait of Hormuz remain large hurdles to a lasting agreement, he wrote.

Iranian proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, where Israel continued to fight on Wednesday, are another factor that could break the fragile ceasefire, wrote Rich Privorotsky, a partner at Goldman Sachs, on Wednesday. 

“I struggle to see new highs for equities,” wrote Privorotsky. For clarity on the stock market outlook, investors will be closely watching “actual flows through the Strait over time,” wrote Privorotsky. 

The ceasefire may not return oil flows in the Persian Gulf back to normal. Iran’s foreign minister on Tuesday said “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations,” suggesting oil tankers could continue to pay Iran tolls—perhaps even in crypto—to transit the strait, a situation experts say the U.S. is unlikely to accept long-term.

Still, some see in the ceasefire good reason to be optimistic the U.S. is serious about a lasting end to the conflict. "It’s become more and more evident that President Trump wants an off-ramp," wrote Wolfe's analysts. With the president appearing more amenable to Iran's demands than previously thought, they added, "we believe the near-term market bottom is in."