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News of the day for April 6, 2026

The major indexes ended last week higher, snapping a five-week losing streak.
Credit: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

Stocks are mostly higher ahead of Monday's open. The major U.S. indexes are coming off their first winning week since the start of the Iran war; Iranian and U.S. officials have reportedly been given a temporary peace proposal by third-party mediators as Trump launched new threats over the weekend; Earnings from Delta Air Lines and key inflation data headline the week ahead for investors; Bitcoin and cryptocurrency-related stocks are gaining after Bitcoin rallied over the weekend; Paramount Skydance is nearing a deal to secure funding from Middle Eastern wealth funds for its Warner Bros. Discovery deal.

Here's what you need to know today.

Stocks Point Higher After Breaking 5-Week Losing Streak

Stock futures are pointing to a mostly, if modestly, higher open Monday after the major indexes snapped a five-week losing streak. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were recently off 0.2%, while those tied to the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were up 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Crude oil futures are moving lower after closing last week above $111, their highest point since the Iran war started and highest since June 2022, amid uncertainty over how long the Iran conflict will last. Gold futures are up around 1% to $4,720 an ounce, while the 10-year Treasury yield is rising to 4.36% from last week's close of 4.32%. Bitcoin is trading near $70,000 after rallying over the weekend, surging from last week's close below $67,000.

Trump Issues Threats to Iran Ahead of Strait Reopening Deadline

A busy weekend in the Iran conflict included President Donald Trump placing a Tuesday night deadline on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said in a social media post on Easter Sunday that Iran needs to open the shipping route or it will be "living in Hell," writing that the U.S. will attack bridges and power plants otherwise. Reports early Monday indicated that the U.S. and Iran have been presented with a proposal from Egyptian, Pakistani and Turkish officials that includes a 45-day ceasefire and the Strait being reopened while peace talks take place. Trump said Sunday he will be take part in a press conference at 1 p.m. ET today with military officials.

Earnings, CPI Report Ahead This Week

Investors have a busy week of earnings reports and economic data to look forward to this week. Delta Air Lines (DAL) and beverage giant Constellation Brands (STZ) headline this week's corporate results as the first-quarter earnings season gets underway; big bank results are coming next week. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index for February and the Consumer Price Index report for March are due out Thursday and Friday, respectively, providing insights into how the Iran war has impacted inflation to start this year. Minutes from the March Federal Reserve meeting are scheduled to be released Wednesday, which investors will be watching for clues as to how the Fed sees the rest of the year playing out.

Bitcoin, Crypto Stocks Rallying to Open Week

After a rally over the weekend to trading just under $70,000 this morning, several cryptocurrency-related stocks are rising alongside bitcoin premarket Monday. Shares of crypto exchanges like Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase (COIN) are gaining 2.5% and 4%, respectively, while Mara Holdings (MARA) is rising 3% and Strategy (MSTR), the largest single corporate holder of Bitcoin, is up 4%. It's been a rough stretch for Bitcoin in 2026, down from where it started the year at about $87,500, and record highs of around $125,000 last October.

Paramount Skydance Nearing Deal For Warner Bros. Discovery Deal Funding

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is nearing deals to receive around $24 billion in commitments from sovereign wealth funds in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates to help fund its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday. The three funds are not expected to have voting rights in the new company, and Paramount Skydance officials don't think any of the investments will trigger reviews from the federal government because the stakes won't be large enough, people familiar with the matter told The Journal. Paramount won a monthslong bidding war for Warner Bros. earlier this year, after it increased its offer and Netflix (NFLX) refused to lift its own $72 billion deal to match. Shares of Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery were little changed this morning.

April will be a busy month for S&P 500 company earnings.
Credit: Spencer Platt / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The season kicks off the week of April 13 with companies representing roughly 70% of the S&P 500's market cap set to report by the end of the month.
• Analysts are waxing more optimistic than usual, raising their earnings-per-share estimates for the S&P 500 and calling for double-digit growth.

The stock market needs a vibe shift. Can earnings season deliver one?

The outlook for first-quarter profits is brightening by some measures: Analysts are waxing more optimistic than usual, raising their earnings-per-share estimates for the S&P 500 and calling for double-digit growth, according to FactSet's John Butters. Lately, though, that hasn't helped the index much, with investors largely concerned with the potential effects of a protracted war in Iran on the economy.

WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU

The S&P 500 should be getting a lift on higher earnings-per-share estimates, but companies may not get full credit as concerns about a protracted war in Iran overshadow good results of the recent past.

Taken broadly, their rear-view results could be good. But investors will likely care more about companies' outlooks and executives' thoughts on the potential impact of war than how the businesses did in the recent past as they look to lift stocks out of their recent doldrums.

There's recent examples to note. Nike (NKE) was dinged recently despite reporting better-than-expected earnings, because the athletic retailer's outlook was weak. Airline stocks have declined as executives detailed the likely impact of higher fuel costs. Now investors are looking to the rest of the month, with companies representing about 70% of the S&P 500's market capitalization set to report by the end of April.

Though the S&P 500 has fallen only about 9% from its January highs, the index's forward price-to-earnings multiple has contracted from a lofty 22 to about 19, indicating a correction, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Some investors eyeballing U.S. stocks call them "extremely cheap."

They may stay that way. The upcoming earnings season "will be a key source of information regarding the earnings outlook, but a challenging trading environment for stock pickers," Goldman's portfolio strategy research team said in a report last month. "The macro volatility of the current backdrop suggests reported results will have a smaller than usual impact on share prices, as was the case during Q1 2025 season."

The main question this quarter, they wrote, will be "the degree to which elevated energy prices and supply chain disruption are likely to weigh on corporate profits."

Historical energy shocks resulted in a broad range of earnings results thereafter, according to the firm, which said earnings growth contracted 15% following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 but rose 18% after the start of the Second Gulf War in 2003; those shocks tended to drag most on the consumer discretionary sector earnings, while boosting the energy sector's.

Investors also appear to be "mispricing" the policy shock, according to Goldman, expecting the Federal Reserve to react more hawkishly than the bank anticipates. Historically policy rates have moved slightly higher in the first three months of an energy shock, then fallen six to nine months later as economic growth concerns came to the fore, the firm said.

"The question of when the market moves in the direction that we think it should is more complicated," the firm's economics research team in a separate report published last month.

Things could be worse. While a strong March jobs number may not convince the Fed it needs to cut rates at its next meeting, it also speaks to economic resilience, some market watchers say.

"It is an environment in which corporate profits can remain elevated and can help to explain why the stock market hasn’t fallen as much as would otherwise be expected, given all of the shocks it has had to absorb," said Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Northlight Asset Management on Friday.

Uncertainty may remain the watchword for investors as results roll in. "Earnings drive stock prices over time," wrote LPL Financial's chief equity strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder. "But not all the time."

Delta shares are down about 10% since the start of the year as the Iran war has created a number of concerns
Credit: Nathan Posner / Anadolu / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Delta Air Lines is the first major carrier scheduled to report first-quarter earnings Wednesday, with the airline industry facing a number of concerns surrounding the impact of conflict in the Middle East.
• Stocks in the industry have been pressured in the last month by worries that the war in Iran could keep fuel prices higher for longer, forcing airlines to take lower profit margins or raise prices.

America's biggest airlines are gearing up to report earnings this month amid an uncertain time for the industry.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) is first up on Wednesday, with results from Alaska Airlines (ALK), United Airlines (UAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV) set to follow later this month.

Airline stocks have been pressured in recent weeks as the war in Iran and disruptions in oil supply have led to higher fuel prices. Airlines being forced to raise prices to offset spiking fuel costs could also hamper travel demand as many consumers show signs of strain.

So far this year, Delta's stock has taken less of a hit than many other airline stocks, with shares down around 4%. Southwest has dropped about 9% while United lost 18% over the same period. Alaska and American Airlines (AAL) have plunged close to 30%.

Why This Matters to Investors

Many investors will look to Delta's first-quarter results and outlook for signals on what to expect from other major airlines. Comments from executives could also offer insights into how the rest of the year could play out.

UBS analysts recently wrote that airlines likely have upside to first-quarter revenue after some executives touted strong demand for the start of the year. However, the analysts warned they expect some airlines could suspend their full-year forecasts considering uncertainty around the outlook for fuel prices.

Analysts from Bank of America said they could see smaller airlines struggle if fuel prices stay higher for longer, but expect a "robust earnings recovery" for the industry if the war in Iran ends sooner than expected.

Delta Air Lines is set to report quarterly results this week.
Credit: Nathan Posner / Anadolu via Getty Images

War headlines continue to move markets—sometimes, a lot. But investors will also watch for movement on inflation and earnings in the days ahead. 

President Donald Trump over the weekend said he plans to hold a press conference with members of the military at the Oval Office Monday afternoon, as a self-imposed deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz looms.  

This week, investors will also be tracking Friday’s Consumer Price Index report for March, a closely followed inflation reading. Economists expect that prices rose 0.9% from a month earlier, according to a consensus compiled by Wells Fargo, and 3.4% year-over-year. Prices rose 2.4% in February from a year earlier, the same as in January and in line with expectations; that report didn’t measure the effects of the conflict in Iran, but this one will.

It follows Thursday’s release of Personal Consumption Expenditures data, another inflation measure seen as vital to the Federal Reserve’s planning of interest-rate policy; this one will reflect older information, from February. (Wells Fargo's consensus is for an 0.4% month-on-month increase, and a 2.8% year-over-year-rise.) Traders generally expect the central bank to stay pat when it next meets at the end of the month. 

Meanwhile, here come earnings reports! Several notable results are expected this week, including some that reflect consumer trends in Delta Air Lines and liquor maker Constellation Brands. (Companies are also watching war headlines closely, since the cost of fuel can have a big effect on their profits—and their prices.) Wall Street analysts broadly expect another quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the benchmark S&P 500.

Market Recap

Stocks finished last week higher, at times moving dramatically as investors digested statements from the U.S. and Iran, along with events on the ground and in the water in the Middle East, about movement toward—or away from—a resolution of the war. All three major indexes ended five-week skids, finishing up at least 3% across the board. (Traders took a break last week for Good Friday, but things return to normal Monday.)

This Week's Top Events

Here’s our rundown of some of the notable events ahead. A more detailed calendar is available from TradingView here. (That link will take you off the Investopedia site.)

• Monday, April 6. Trump is set to hold a press conference at the Oval Office at 1 p.m. ET.
• Tuesday, April 7. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is set to take part in a live-streamed Q&A in Detroit scheduled to start at 12:35 p.m. ET. Some Fed officials in recent appearances have warned that the war could affect inflation and the job market. 
• Wednesday, April 8: Delta Air Lines (DAL) is set to report its latest quarterly financial results before the opening bell, followed by a conference call at 10 a.m. ET. In January, concerns about its forecast weighed on airline shares. FactSet research indicates that Wall Street projects earnings growth of more than 13% for the S&P 500 as a whole.
• Wednesday: Minutes of the Fed’s March meeting are set for release at 2 p.m. ET. Investors use this report to inform predictions about what might be next for rates, with the central bank's next meeting later this month.
• Wednesday: Constellation Brands (STZ), known for Modelo beer and High West whiskey among others, will report fiscal fourth-quarter (ended Feb. 28) results after the close, with a conference call the following morning. The report should have something to say about consumer spending and sentiment as well as what people are, and aren’t, drinking these days.  
• Thursday, April 9: PCE report for February.
• Friday, April 10: CPI report for March, 8:30 a.m. ET.

More Investopedia Reads

Diccon Hyatt explained why the Fed’s tools for fighting inflation might not work in the current environment. Peter Gratton dissected some of the ways the war hits Americans in the pocketbook. And just in case you missed it, here are Investopedia’s roundups of the first-quarter action in stocks, crypto and gold–as well as takes on what might be next.

This article has been updated since it was first published to include reference to Trump's press conference.

Gas prices could push up the costs of other items as businesses pass on elevated transportation costs.
Credit: Bizuayehu Tesfaye / Las Vegas Review-Journal / Tribune News Service via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Surging oil prices this week brought the cost of a barrel to $111 by one measure, closing in on the $130 benchmark that some economists say is high enough to drag the U.S. economy into a recession.
• A speech by President Donald Trump reduced traders' confidence that Iran would end soon and that normal oil shipments would resume through the Strait of Hormuz.
• A recession is growing more likely, according to a survey of economists published this week.

A surge in oil prices this week brought the crucial commodity close to the level that could trigger a recession.

Oil prices rose after President Donald Trump's Wednesday night speech on the Iran war that gave no new indication of when the conflict might end, and the Strait of Hormuz would reopen.

The narrow waterway off the southern coast of Iran has been virtually closed to ship traffic since the war began. That stoppage has bottled up around 20% of the world's oil supply along with other resources, preventing goods from reaching international markets.

The scarcity has pushed up the price of oil. A barrel of crude oil on the West Texas Intermediary market, the U.S. benchmark for prices, rose 11.6% Thursday to $111 compared to around $65 in the days leading up to the war last month.

The U.S. imports only a small percentage of its oil through the strait—7% as of 2024, according to the EIA—but the blockage affects the international market, which sets prices for the oil used in the U.S. to make gasoline and other fuels. Pricier oil has, in turn, pushed up the price of gas and diesel, which have risen more than $1 a gallon since the war began.

What This Means For The Economy

A recession would likely mean higher unemployment and lower living standards for the U.S., as typically happens when the economy shrinks.

More expensive fuel could, over time, drag the economy into a recession. Different economists have different estimates for how long and how high oil prices would have to get before that would be likely, with several saying it would have to stay at $130 or higher for months on end to risk causing a serious downturn.

"It will probably take a couple of months of oil prices above $130/barrel to cause a recession," independent forecaster Robert Fry wrote in a commentary on March 16. "Unfortunately, oil prices could easily rise that high (or much higher) if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for more than a few more weeks."

Forecasters at Wells Fargo also used the $130 benchmark for recession danger territory, while those at Oxford Economics put it at $140. Either way, the red line is getting closer as the war drags on, with few signs of normal oil shipment through Hormuz resuming anytime soon.

With the war's disruptions growing by the day, economists view the risk of a recession rising. In a survey of 30 experts by the National Association for Business Economics released Thursday, 43% said the chances of a recession in the next 12 months were between 35% and 50%, up from 33% who said the same in November before the war began.

The war hurts the economy in several ways: it stokes inflation by pushing up energy prices, which diverts consumer spending from other goods, and slows overall economic growth.

The U.S. added three times as many jobs as economists expected in March.
Credit: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The U.S. added far more jobs than expected in March, a sign that the labor market and economy are more resilient than previously thought.
• Experts say a stable labor market should support consumer spending and corporate profits, while giving the Federal Reserve breathing room to address war-driven inflation. But rate cuts appear less likely now.

March was full of surprises—and it's still delivering them in April.

The U.S. added an estimated 178,000 jobs in March, a rebound from surprisingly large job losses in February, according to data released Friday morning. March’s gains were about three times what economists expected. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%. All told, the report was a good sign for the economy, according to many market watchers—though it may also mean disappointment for those counting on near-term interest-rate cuts to energize stocks.

“Although most of this data is from the period prior to the war, it establishes a baseline of a resilient economy,” wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. A resilient labor market, he said, should allow consumer spending and corporate profits to continue to grow. 

Why This Is Important

Heading into 2026, a weakening labor market appeared to be one of the greatest risks facing the stock market and challenging the Federal Reserve. With the war in Iran ratcheting up inflation risks, Friday's strong jobs report could ease some of the pressure on investors and policymakers over the next several months.

Roger Ferguson, a former Fed Vice Chair, told CNBC on Friday the report was “good news” for the Fed, which he said wanted to see evidence of a stable labor market. Investors have for the past month worried that the war in Iran puts the U.S. on a crash course with stagflation, the combination of rising prices and slowing economic growth. In that situation, the Fed, tasked with ensuring stable prices and maximum employment, is left with no good options to achieve its goals: Rate hikes meant to tame inflation would weigh on a fragile labor market, and rate cuts to support employment could aggravate inflation. 

Ferguson said the “low hire, low fire” economy evidenced by the jobs report “is an equilibrium that may not be exciting, but is certainly consistent with some elements of the dual mandate.” A stable labor market, in other words, buys the Fed time to see how the Iran war impacts the economy and gives policymakers more options to tackle inflation if it accelerates. 

Friday's report was less welcome among those keen to see interest rates decline. Investors entered the year anticipating the Fed would cut rates at least once. The war in Iran has scrambled those expectations. “The bad news is, if the labor market remains this stable, it will be very difficult to justify further rate cuts,” said Jamie Cox, Managing Partner at Harris Financial Group. 

Treasury yields rose on Friday, suggesting investors expect future interest rates to be higher than previously expected. The yield on the 2-year Treasury, one of the bonds more sensitive to monetary policy, jumped from 3.81% to 3.89% following Friday’s report, then retreated to 3.83% around midday. (Stock markets were closed for Good Friday.)

Investors still think the most likely outcome is that the Fed holds interest rates steady through the end of this year, according to federal funds futures trading data. But Friday’s report did lead some to up their bets that the next move is a hike, rather than a cut. Those odds, which stood near zero yesterday, were about 7% Friday morning. The odds of one rate cut in 2026 declined to about 14% from nearly 22% yesterday.

Some market watchers' didn't see a clear takeaway from Friday’s report. “Massive revisions to both January and February illustrate the muddy job data, adding to the overall uncertainty,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial. Friday’s report revised January’s data up by 34,000 jobs and February’s data down by 41,000 jobs. The estimates are now that the U.S. added 160,000 jobs in January and lost 133,000 in February.

Lydia Mashburn Newman, managing director of the American Institute for Economic Research, encouraged investors to take Friday’s report with a grain of salt. “On net, we still have only added about 50,000 jobs over the last two months. And that is not necessarily at the level we need it to be” to sustain a growing economy, she told CNBC on Friday.

Friday’s data also doesn’t clarify the effect of the war in Iran on the labor market. Natasha Sarin, president of the Budget Lab at Yale, told CNBC her team estimates a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz would knock 0.3% off U.S. GDP and eliminate tens of thousands of jobs over the next year.

Jobseekers speak with recruiters during the WorkSource North Seattle Career Fair in Seattle, Washington, US, on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026.
Credit: David Ryder / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• U.S. employers added 178,000 jobs in March, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%. Both figures were better than economists expected.
• The job market rebounded after losing 133,000 jobs in February, continuing an up-and-down pattern that's persisted since May.
• Trade policy uncertainty and the immigration crackdown have suppressed job creation, and the Iran war could be the latest headwind.

The U.S. job market continued its up-and-down pattern in March, making up for a February slump.

Employers added 178,000 jobs in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. That was an improvement over the downwardly revised 133,000 jobs lost in February. The unemployment rate ticked just slightly lower to 4.3% despite a slow pace of job creation over the past year.

The job market has alternated between gaining and losing jobs each month since May, with the overall number of jobs staying roughly flat. Job growth was roughly three times more than economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal expected.

What This Means For The Economy

Relatively stagnant job creation leaves the U.S. economy more vulnerable to large-scale layoffs, which would quickly push up the unemployment rate if they happened.

The job market has stayed in a low-hiring, low-firing limbo for months. Numerous factors are dragging down job creation, while keeping employers reluctant to lay off their workforces en masse. Uncertainty about trade policy has discouraged businesses from hiring and expanding, while the crackdown on immigration has reduced the number of available workers. The latest disruption is the war in Iran, which has pushed up energy prices and added a fresh dose of uncertainty into the mix.

"Much of March's survey window predates the worst of the war-related economic disruption, so March’s upside surprise may not hold up," wrote Realtor.com Senior Economist Jake Krimmel.

Many of the new jobs were in health care, continuing a trend from last year. In recent months, that sector has been the lone bright spot while other industries have lost jobs by the tens of thousands. Outside of health care, construction saw the most job growth, adding 26,000 positions.

Update, April 3, 2026: This article was updated to include economists' commentary.

Blue Owl stock has lost more than 40% of its value since the start of the year.
Credit: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Blue Owl Capital capped the amount investors can withdraw from two of its funds amid a surge in redemption requests from clients.
• Private credit experts say the mass withdrawals are effectively stress testing the market, but that the gates on withdrawals don't necessarily indicate something is broken.

There's nothing to fear but fear itself...in private credit.

Case in point: Blue Owl Capital's private credit woes. Concerns about private credit—that is the $3 trillion market of loans from non-bank lenders such as private funds, asset managers and insurance companies—has driven masses of investors to the exits. In the face of uber high withdrawal requests—for example, Blue Owl's flagship OCIC fund received redemption requests for about 21.9% of shares outstanding in the first quarter, and its tech-focused fund, 40.7% of shares—the firm has further capped redemptions at 5% from 15% previously.

Other asset managers that offer non-publicly traded private credit funds for retail investors—including Apollo Global Management (APO), Ares Management (ARES) and BlackRock (BLK) —recently made similar moves, limiting redemptions as requests accelerated. Private credit experts say the mass withdrawals are effectively stress testing the market, but that the gates on withdrawals don't necessarily indicate something is broken.

WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU

Private credit, once only available to well-heeled investors, is now more broadly available to the public, but the funds, which on the one hand pay high yields, are also not as liquid as investors seem to think.

Concerns about the private credit market came to the fore late last year as financial veterans including JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon and Jeffrey Gundlach, chief of DoubleLine Capital, warned that they were actively monitoring the sector as it was starting to show cracks.

In spite of investor jitters, Goldman Sachs Asset Management's global co-head of private credit, Vivek Bantwal, said market fundamentals "remain strong." "Data indicates that defaults and overdue loans in public and private credit continue to be at relatively low levels," the firm said in a recent report.

Even so, investors have broadly panned asset managers. Shares of Blue Owl were down about 3% recently, after falling as much as 9% early in the day. So far this year, Blue Owl stock has dropped more than 40%, while shares of Apollo and Ares have each lost more than a quarter of their value over the period.

Lawrence Gillum, LPL chief fixed income strategist, in a report last month described the ongoing investor redemption requests as private credit's "first real stress test." Though he asserts that "gating isn't a signal that something is breaking," and that asset managers use them to avoid having to sell at lower prices and protect existing investors, it has also raised legal scrutiny around disclosures and started a debate around whether these types of strategies should be available in retail-friendly funds.

Even as retail investors are wringing their hands over private credit, the Trump administration this week proposed a rule aimed at opening up 401(k)s and other retirement plans to private equity and private credit investments.

Some private credit firms say retail investors appear to have a misunderstanding of the private credit market at large, particularly, that the funds marketed to them as "semi-liquid" may have given them the false impression that their investments were more liquid than they were.

Last week, DoubleLine's Gundlach quoted a Bloomberg article, in which the president of Apollo Global Management Jim Zelter and co-chief of Blue Owl Doug Ostrover said during a financial symposium in Australia that "distribution channels" —referencing intermediaries that sell financial products to investors—"failed to clearly explain liquidity restrictions to investors." To that Gundlach quipped: "So shouldn't you give them their money back?"

Stocks were volatile on Thursday as investors tried to parse developments in the Middle East.
Credit: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Investors are antsy heading into the first long weekend since the war in Iran began; conflicting messages out of the White House and Tehran are adding to unease in an increasingly headline-driven market.
• Markets will be closed Friday when the March jobs report is released. The memory of last month's disappointing jobs report looms large.

Investors are heading into the first long weekend since the war in Iran began, and they have reason to be anxious.

“Nobody wants to hold risk into the weekend,” Alli McCartney, managing director at UBS Private Wealth Management, told CNBC late last month. The reason, she said, “is anything that happens over the weekend is going to change the flow.”

With markets closed tomorrow for Good Friday, the risks of being caught off guard by developments in Iran are even higher this weekend.

The U.S. has sent thousands of additional troops to the Middle East, a move that investors can’t be sure is a negotiating tactic or preparation for escalation. The U.S. has repeatedly ramped up operations and threats on weekends—the first salvos of the war came late on a Friday night, and President Trump’s threats to target Iran’s energy infrastructure landed on a Saturday. Contradictory messages out of the White House—and Iran’s public denials of nearly everything the Trump administration says—add to the confusion. 

Why This Is Important

Over the past year, President Trump has repeatedly adjusted policy in response to market movements, often moderating positions that caused bond and stock investors to panic. For that reason, investors have found weekends, when markets are closed and that feedback channel is shut off, especially unnerving amid the war in Iran.

Thursday’s session made clear that nothing is clear. After two days of big gains fueled by hope the war will end soon, stocks tumbled at the open after President Trump in a televised speech on Wednesday night threatened to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages.” Then, oil pared their gains and stocks rebounded following reports from Iranian state media that Iran and Oman were developing a plan to jointly monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, boosting hopes that the oil supply shock could ease. 

The market “is so headline dependent,” Gina Martin Adams, chief market strategist at HB Wealth, told Investopedia late last week. “Investors are looking for clarity where it doesn’t seem like clarity is really possible.”  The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), otherwise known as the "fear index," rose Thursday, but remains below last Friday's year-to-date high.

Adding to the anxiety ahead of the long weekend is the Friday morning release of the March jobs report. Investors were surprised to learn in the last report that the U.S. lost an estimated 92,000 jobs in February; economists had forecast an addition of 50,000 jobs. The major indexes all dropped at least 1% the day of that report. Economists are again predicting the U.S. added jobs last month; investors are hoping they're right this time.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a quarter of taxpayers have claimed the new overtime deduction.
Credit: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said 25% of tax returns have claimed the new overtime deduction, far exceeding earlier estimates.

• Experts suggest the high claim rate may result from workers taking on more overtime or from inaccurate tax returns.

Taxpayers have flocked to one of this year's new tax breaks, according to one government official.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that a quarter of taxpayers have deducted their overtime pay so far. That number is more than double the previous estimates of how many taxpayers would claim the new deduction.

The "One Big, Beautiful Bill," passed by Congress in July, included several new tax cuts that have so far increased the average tax refund by almost 11%. One of these tax cuts includes the new 'no tax on overtime' deduction. It allows single taxpayers to deduct up to $12,500 of earned overtime wages from their taxable income, reducing their overall tax bill.

The IRS did not respond to questions about whether Bessent's comments matched its records. However, a quarter of tax filers claiming the overtime deduction is far above initial estimates of those eligible for the break.

Why This Matters

Many taxpayers are relying on their boosted refund to pay down debt or to afford everyday and big purchases this year. That means higher refunds will increase consumer spending, boosting the country's GDP and preventing a recession.

A previous report from the Tax Policy Center, a think tank run by the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution, estimated that only 8.8% of taxpayers would be eligible to claim the 'no tax on overtime' deduction. The Urban Institute told Investopedia it needed to wait until it received more evidence about the filing data to estimate the number of returns claiming the overtime deduction for the 2026 filing season.

While the vast majority of hourly workers and almost three in 10 salaried workers are eligible for overtime, only about 8.5% of all workers received overtime pay in 2023, according to a report from The Budget Lab at Yale.

Additionally, The Budget Lab previously estimated that 8% to 10% of tax returns would claim the overtime deduction, said John Ricco, associate director of policy analysis at The Budget Lab.

"We expected that nowhere near 25% of returns would be claiming this deduction, and so for us, this is a surprise," Ricco said. "[But] I do think that the 25% number is plausible."

Why These Estimates Do Not Align

Firstly, the Budget Lab's overtime worker numbers are estimates based on algorithms that use the data they have.

"There is no existing public administrative record that is public that says: here is exactly how many people are working Fair Labor Standards Act overtime," Ricco said.

In addition, The Budget Lab's estimate of 8% to 10% of tax returns that would claim the overtime deduction only includes the number of taxpayers who would see tax savings from the deduction. It does not include taxpayers who would already owe $0 in taxes or have received a refund.

Additionally, taxpayers may have increased or started working overtime after the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" passed to take advantage of the new deduction, Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, said in an email.

"Now that there's a tax advantage to working overtime, [workers may have] restructured the nature of their jobs so that more of the hours worked are going to qualify for this deduction," Ricco said. "It's possible that employers have sort of shifted schedules so that more people's aggregate payroll is going as overtime."

Since the overtime deduction was introduced halfway through 2025, the IRS gave employers some leniency. For the 2026 tax filing season, employers are not required to provide the exact overtime amount to their workers, meaning workers will have to calculate and report their overtime wages themselves.

"[Waiving this requirement] may elevate improper deduction claims," Watson said. "[Without] audit or other data, we can’t know how much this could be driving the numbers yet."

Lastly, the percentage of tax returns that claim the overtime deduction may be lower once the IRS receives all 2025 tax returns.

"It might be possible that people who expect to get money back, or to have lower tax returns, and want the refund earlier, those are the ones who actually benefit from these [new] deductions," Ricco said. "It wouldn't surprise me if the number ends up at, say, 20% instead of 25 once dust settles."