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Taxpayers have flocked to one of this year's new tax breaks, according to one government official.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that a quarter of taxpayers have deducted their overtime pay so far. That number is more than double the previous estimates of how many taxpayers would claim the new deduction.
The "One Big, Beautiful Bill," passed by Congress in July, included several new tax cuts that have so far increased the average tax refund by almost 11%. One of these tax cuts includes the new 'no tax on overtime' deduction. It allows single taxpayers to deduct up to $12,500 of earned overtime wages from their taxable income, reducing their overall tax bill.
The IRS did not respond to questions about whether Bessent's comments matched its records. However, a quarter of tax filers claiming the overtime deduction is far above initial estimates of those eligible for the break.
Many taxpayers are relying on their boosted refund to pay down debt or to afford everyday and big purchases this year. That means higher refunds will increase consumer spending, boosting the country's GDP and preventing a recession.
A previous report from the Tax Policy Center, a think tank run by the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution, estimated that only 8.8% of taxpayers would be eligible to claim the 'no tax on overtime' deduction. The Urban Institute told Investopedia it needed to wait until it received more evidence about the filing data to estimate the number of returns claiming the overtime deduction for the 2026 filing season.
While the vast majority of hourly workers and almost three in 10 salaried workers are eligible for overtime, only about 8.5% of all workers received overtime pay in 2023, according to a report from The Budget Lab at Yale.
Additionally, The Budget Lab previously estimated that 8% to 10% of tax returns would claim the overtime deduction, said John Ricco, associate director of policy analysis at The Budget Lab.
"We expected that nowhere near 25% of returns would be claiming this deduction, and so for us, this is a surprise," Ricco said. "[But] I do think that the 25% number is plausible."
Why These Estimates Do Not AlignFirstly, the Budget Lab's overtime worker numbers are estimates based on algorithms that use the data they have.
"There is no existing public administrative record that is public that says: here is exactly how many people are working Fair Labor Standards Act overtime," Ricco said.
In addition, The Budget Lab's estimate of 8% to 10% of tax returns that would claim the overtime deduction only includes the number of taxpayers who would see tax savings from the deduction. It does not include taxpayers who would already owe $0 in taxes or have received a refund.
Additionally, taxpayers may have increased or started working overtime after the "One Big, Beautiful Bill" passed to take advantage of the new deduction, Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, said in an email.
"Now that there's a tax advantage to working overtime, [workers may have] restructured the nature of their jobs so that more of the hours worked are going to qualify for this deduction," Ricco said. "It's possible that employers have sort of shifted schedules so that more people's aggregate payroll is going as overtime."
Since the overtime deduction was introduced halfway through 2025, the IRS gave employers some leniency. For the 2026 tax filing season, employers are not required to provide the exact overtime amount to their workers, meaning workers will have to calculate and report their overtime wages themselves.
"[Waiving this requirement] may elevate improper deduction claims," Watson said. "[Without] audit or other data, we can’t know how much this could be driving the numbers yet."
Lastly, the percentage of tax returns that claim the overtime deduction may be lower once the IRS receives all 2025 tax returns.
"It might be possible that people who expect to get money back, or to have lower tax returns, and want the refund earlier, those are the ones who actually benefit from these [new] deductions," Ricco said. "It wouldn't surprise me if the number ends up at, say, 20% instead of 25 once dust settles."
Many Americans were already scaling back before the Iran war raised the risk of inflation
Consumers are turning down the thermostat to cope with inflation, JD Power said.One-third of Americans have turned down their thermostat or bought less food, and more belt-tightening may be ahead.
More than 85% of consumers said in February that they had made changes to their daily life in response to inflation, according to a survey of 4,000 Americans conducted by JD Power, a consumer insights firm. At that point, inflation was hovering around 2.4% year-over-year. Economists say the conflict with Iran could drive up energy and transportation costs, elevate prices for other goods and increase the broader cost-of-living.
Consumers were cutting before the prospect of a war-fueled surge in inflation. Many nixed discretionary purchases, with 45% reducing visits to restaurants or takeout orders, 42% buying less expensive food, and 42% delaying the purchase of apparel, home decor or other items, the survey said.
Consumer spending is the engine that powers the economy. If war with Iran pushes up prices and further slows consumer spending, corporate profits will take a hit and companies may want to hold off on hiring.
Some also started easing off essentials. About 34% of those surveyed turned down the thermostat, and 33% bought less food over the previous 30 days, the survey said. Some 16% of consumers postponed or canceled medical care, or went without medications, the research found.
Americans have responded to persistently high inflation by looking for ways to make extra money and decreasing how much they save or put towards paying off debt, JD Power said. The cost-of-living, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, has been above the Federal Reserve's 2% annual inflation target for roughly five years, Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows.
“Yes, consumers are exhibiting resilience in the face of financial difficulties, finding ways to creatively patch together a tighter budget, but some of the spending cuts being made by a wide swath of consumers aren’t necessarily sustainable,” JD Power said.
Relief may not be on the horizon. The price of oil – as measured by West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark – has risen roughly 70% since the start of the war in late February, as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been largely halted.
That has led to higher prices at the pump—gas now averages more than $4/gallon, the highest level in four years—and more expensive airfares, as airlines pass on their costs to consumers.
Meantime, disrupted fertilizer shipments have created shortages for farmers and could add substantially to food costs in the coming year.
U.S. inflation could hit 4.2% this year, according a recent forecast from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Amazon could be looking to make a big move to grow its budding satellite internet service.
Shares of Globalstar (GSAT) soared 13% Thursday following a report the satellite internet company could be acquired by Amazon (AMZN). Talks around a potential deal, which could be worth an estimated $9 billion, are ongoing but could face some hurdles, The Financial Times reported Wednesday.
One of the complicating factors to clear a deal could include negotiations with Apple (AAPL), which bought a 20% stake in Globalstar in 2024, the report said.
Amazon declined to remark, and Globalstar did not immediately respond to an Investopedia request for comment.
Amazon joins what could be a growing number of firms interested in Globalstar, which saw its stock rally to close out last year following reports SpaceX was considered buying the company.
Such a deal could help Amazon's growing Leo satellite internet service, formerly called Project Kuiper, compete with the Starlink satellite internet service offered by SpaceX, ahead of the Elon Musk-led company's IPO later this year. Amazon said last month it has already launched about 200 satellites, and has plans for thousands more as it looks to launch the service.
Just earlier this week, Amazon announced a partnership with Delta Air Lines (DAL) to use Amazon Leo as the internet provider for at least 500 aircraft starting in 2028.
With Thursday's gains, Globalstar stock has climbed close to 30% since the start of the year. Amazon shares slid less than 1% Thursday, and are down about 9% year-to-date.
UPDATE—This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent prices.
If you thought $4 gasoline was expensive, wait until the Iran War's fertilizer crunch starts showing up on grocery store price tags.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is pushing up more than just gas prices: the blockage of the crucial waterway to ship traffic has cut off about a third of the world's seaborne fertilizer, according to the United Nations. With ships cut off from traveling through Hormuz for more than a month since the war began, fertilizer prices are up nearly 30% in the U.S., according to the Bloomberg Green Markets price index.
"If the conflict doesn't end, and transit reopen allowing those fertilizers to pass through, then we have a lost farming season here in the northern hemisphere, primarily for corn," Kathryn Rooney Vera, Chief Market Strategist at StoneX, said in an interview. "So if we have a lost season, or yields drop because they don't have the inputs that they need, then we should expect food costs to increase."
Higher food inflation could hurt consumer spending in other areas and increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve raises its key interest rate next year.
The uptick in food prices will be slower to arrive than the nearly instantaneous rise in gas prices, hitting over the next nine to 18 months, Vera said. The cost of groceries as measured by the Consumer Price Index is likely to rise by two to four percentage points, pushing up overall CPI inflation by 0.15 percentage points.
Vera's calculation assumes the strait will reopen by May, which is not guaranteed. The increases could be more severe the longer the conflict blocks trade through the strait.
The surging price of fertilizer has a direct impact on food prices because fertilizers account for a large share of the cost of producing certain crops, and will affect some foods more than others. For instance, 51% of the price of corn is the cost of fertilizer, according to CIBC.
The price increases could be even more severe if fighting expands to the Red Sea, cutting off ship traffic on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula.
"I think the markets are under-pricing the risks here," Vera said. "My concern is that the market is under-appreciating the impact that this will have on critical inputs down the line."
The surge in fertilizer prices is just one economic impact of the war, which has pushed up prices for gasoline, natural gas, and helium, among other crucial resources, stoking inflation and creating widespread uncertainty that is dragging on the economy.
Tesla's sales struggles improved in the first quarter, though not as much as Wall Street expected them to.
Shares of Tesla (TSLA) fell 5% Thursday after the company said it delivered 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter, up 6% from the same time a year ago, but short of the 368,900 that analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha called for. Tesla's production of 408,386 vehicles also came in below the 446,060 vehicle analyst consensus.
Wedbush analysts said that while deliveries were underwhelming, that was "not a shock to us given the current EV backdrop across geographies while the company shifts gears to focus more on its AI strategy."
While Tesla is looking to transform its business to focus on developing technologies like artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and robotics, its electric vehicle sales still represent the bulk of the company's revenue and remain a key metric for investors.
In January, Tesla said it delivered 418,227 vehicles in the fourth quarter, logging its second straight year of declining sales amid a weakening EV market and negative impact to demand from CEO Elon Musk's involvement in the Trump administration.
Automakers have said in recent months that demand for EVs has taken a hit in the U.S. since the Trump administration allowed EV tax credits to expire last September. Tesla has announced plans to discontinue two models in the first half of this year, and several other manufacturers have announced pivots away from focusing on EVs.
Investors will get a more detailed look at Tesla's first-quarter performance when the company reports earnings after the closing bell on April 22.
With Thursday's drop, Tesla shares are down nearly 20% since the start of the year.
UPDATE—This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent prices.
President Donald Trump's first year in office ushered in significant change, from tariffs to massive tax legislation.
But not everyone benefits equally from these policies, according to a new brief from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), a think tank.
In brief, the researchers analyzed the effects of policies backed by Trump and Republican Congressional members—such as tariffs, the expiration of Affordable Care Act subsidies, and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)—on Americans of all incomes.
The analysis found that the richest 1% of Americans, or those with incomes of more than $916,900, will receive the largest tax cuts in 2026, an average of $8,850. By contrast, those with an income of between $92,100 and $153,600 will pay an additional $980.
Trump's policies are affecting households differently depending on income. Those who earn more may gain more from these policies, as these households tend to spend a smaller proportion of their income on goods and rely less on public benefits.
Tariffs are also impacting Americans' wallets. Martha Gimbel, cofounder and executive director of the Yale Budget Lab, notes that tariffs tend to have a disproportionate impact on low and middle-income consumers because they tend to spend a greater share of their income on goods.
(While the Supreme Court struck down many of Trump's tariffs last Friday, his administration has reimposed many of those tariffs under a different law.)
Those with higher income, Gimbel said, "spend more money on services, dog walkers, tutors, things like that. And so mechanically, something that increases the price of goods is just going to hit lower-income consumers harder than higher-income consumers."
A Yale Budget Lab analysis found the new tariffs, set at 15% and in effect for 150 days unless they're extended by Congress, would cost households between $600 and $800.
However, Gimbel acknowledged that the uncertainty about the future of Trump's tariffs makes determining their economic cost less than an exact science.
"It is unclear whether the 150-day tariffs will survive legal scrutiny," said Gimbel. "Uncertainty has an economic cost. We will simply have to see how large that cost is."
As for how Trump's other major policy, the OBBBA, impacts Americans, low- and middle-income households might benefit from provisions such as the Senior Tax Deduction and No Tax on Tips. But these policies are temporary, and other parts of the bill, such as those that impose cuts on Medicaid, could cost more than these short-term gains over time.
"There's not just tax provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act," Gimbel said. "There are also spending provisions. Low-income consumers may also be losing their Medicaid. They may be losing their SNAP benefits. When you combine the effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and tariffs, everyone is worse off until you hit the top" 10% of income.
According to ITEP, the bottom 20% of earners, who make less than $30,700, face a 3.1% increase in their overall taxes as a share of income. The math doesn't flip in Americans' favor until household income crosses about $361,000, and only the top 1% see a meaningful net tax cut.
A separate analysis by the Congressional Budget Office found that OBBBA would make the poorest 20% of Americans worse off every year through 2034.
Fifty years ago, Apple was born.
At its inception, it was little more than two guys—Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak—and a personal computer prototype in a Bay Area garage. It would go on to become one of world's most recognizable brands and largest companies, valued at nearly $4 trillion today.
Early investors were instrumental in Apple’s growth from start-up to tech titan. One in particular supplied not just the capital, but also the credibility and business acumen to turn a novel idea—that everyone could own a computer—into a reality.
Mike Markkula is often described as the adult in the room—the business-minded supervisor who helped channel Jobs’ and Wozniak’s vision. According to Markkula, he backed a $250,000 loan from Bank of America, and told the lender: “I want you hold our feet to the fire.” He insisted the bank treat upstart Apple like a mature, established business. Markkula says that decision helped enforce discipline at a company whose founders cared little for the ins and outs of business.
“Woz just wanted his own computer. Simple as that,” said Markkula. But what the Steves may have lacked in business acumen at the time, they made up for in passion and skills. “They were young, motivated guys,” said Markkula, who took it on himself to write the company’s business plan and manage marketing.
Mike Markkula's success with Apple and his approach as an early backer could still hold several lessons for investors today, including the value of having conviction in the business, taking a disciplined approach, and focusing on long-term growth.
Markkula drafted the Apple Marketing Philosophy in 1977, laying out the principles that became central to the company’s identity. He promulgated three core principles: empathy, or listening to consumers; focus, or being great at a few things rather than mediocre at many; and “impute,” or the idea that the presentation of the product needed to be as excellent as the product itself. “People DO judge a book by its cover,” he wrote.
Those principles were on display when Apple introduced the Apple II at the West Coast Computer Faire in 1977. "I wanted people to see that you could do something useful with an Apple II," said Markkula, who says he wrote just three programs for the computer: Color Math, an arithmetic assistant for kids; Finance, a calculator for adults; and a checkbook-balancing program.
The combination of practicality, simplicity, and slick packaging made it a hit. "When you walked in that front door to the computer fair, all you could see was Apple," said Markkula, "and we had what everybody at that place wanted."
To scale beyond the hobbyists at computer fairs, Markkula helped bridge the divide between Silicon Valley and Wall Street, convincing many of Apple’s earliest backers to take a chance on the Steves. “They turned me off as people,” said pioneering venture capitalist Arthur Rock, who Markkula connected to the Steves in 1978. Rock, trusting Markkula, invested in Apple and served on its board until 1993.
“A lot of people wouldn't invest in Apple, wouldn't even talk to Apple, because Steve [Jobs] was so odd,” said Don Valentino, founder of Sequoia Capital and an early investor. “But you have to listen to everyone. One of the things I always advocated [at Sequoia] is learning to listen. Learning to ask questions,” he said.
Ultimately, the Apple success story may boil down to personnel. “Lots of people in Silicon Valley think they're visionaries,” said Valentino. But he’s only known two: Bob Noyce, the co-founder of Intel, and Steve Jobs.
Jobs had vision. Wozniak had engineering skills. Markkula had business acumen. And the rest is history.
News of the day for April 2, 2026
The stock market is poised to give back big back much of the big gains recorded the previous two sessions.Stock futures are sinking and oil prices are soaring after President Trump's televised update on the Iran war failed to assure investors that the conflict could end soon; Trump said that the U.S. plans to hit Iran "extremely hard over the next two to three weeks" and did not repeat his previous claims that talks with Iran are underway for a ceasefire; investors will get a brief break from the volatility tomorrow, when the stock market will be closed in observance of Good Friday; Globalstar stock is surging following a report that the satellite internet provider could be acquired by Amazon; and several airline and cruise stocks are sinking amid the latest surge in oil prices. Here's what you need to know today.
Stocks Fall, Oil Soars After Trump Speech on Iran WarStocks are pointing sharply lower after President Trump's Wednesday night address to the American public failed to convinced investors that the Iran war will end soon. (more on that below) Futures tied the Dow Jones Industrial Average were recently down 1.4%, while those linked to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq dropped 1.6% and 2%, respectively. The major indexes had posted big gains in each of the previous two sessions amid hopes that an end to the war was in sight.
Oil prices are soaring this morning as investors digest the prospect of continued supply disruptions. West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, were up more than 9% at just under $110 per barrel, a level not seen since mid-2022 and the highest price since the Iran conflict began. Gold futures fell 4% to $4,610 an ounce, while bitcoin traded at $66,200, down from an overnight high of $68,600. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects interest rates on all sorts of consumer loans, rose to 4.35% this morning from 4.32% at yesterday's close.
Trump Says U.S. to Hit Iran "Extremely Hard."President Trump said in his address last night that the U.S. plans to hit Iran "extremely hard over the next two to three weeks." He said that the war's objectives are close to being completed, though the stated priorities for the war coming from the White House have changed over the course of the conflict. Trump did not repeat his previous claims that talks with Iran are underway for a ceasefire, nor did he mention any operations that the ground troops that have amassed in the region could be part of, such as securing the Strait of Hormuz or trying to extract Iran's uranium.
Stock Market Closed Tomorrow for Good FridayStock traders will get a respite from the recent volatility tomorrow, when the market will be closed for the Good Friday ahead of the Easter holiday this weekend. Bond trading will close early on Friday at 2 p.m. ET. The closely followed monthly jobs report is scheduled to be released Friday morning, so any stock market reaction to the data will be delayed. Markets resume normal operations on Monday.
Globalstar Pops on Reports of Deal Talks With AmazonShares of Globalstar (GSAT) are surging this morning following a report that the satellite internet company is in talks to potentially be acquired by Amazon (AMZN). The Financial Times reported that talks around a potential $9 billion deal are ongoing, but also said that there are some hurdles including Apple (AAPL), which bought a 20% stake in Globalstar in 2024. A deal would help the online retail and cloud computing giant add a new stream of revenue by boosting Amazon's new Leo satellite internet project. The deal would also put Amazon in position to compete with Starlink, the satellite internet service offered by SpaceX, ahead of the Elon Musk-led company's IPO later this year. Globalstar shares were up 16% in recent premarket trading, while Amazon stock was down more than 2%.
Travel Stocks Sink Amid Fuel Price ConcernsSeveral stocks in the airline and cruise industry are falling as the renewed surge in oil prices raises concerns that the companies could face higher fuel costs for longer, pressuring margins. Fuel costs have roughly doubled since the start of the Iran war, and have already led many airlines to raise prices in recent weeks, especially for international flights that require more fuel. Shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines (UAL), American Airlines (AAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV), along with Carnival (CCL), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), were each down roughly 4% ahead of the opening bell.
SpaceX just took its official first step toward a stock market debut that could set records for an initial public offering.
Elon Musk's rocket and satellite company reportedly filed confidential paperwork with the Securities and Exchange Commission Wednesday, with the company looking to raise $40 billion to $80 billion—a figure that would shatter Saudi Aramco's record $29 billion debut in 2020.
But filing for the IPO is just the first step. Before anyone can buy a single public share, SpaceX has to run a gauntlet that takes most companies up to a year to complete.
Every stock you can buy was once an IPO—it's how private companies become publicly traded ones. For everyday investors, IPOs represent a rare chance to buy into companies near the start of their public trading.
SpaceX has selected five banks to lead the offering: Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Morgan Stanley (MS). Those lead underwriters will assemble a broader group of banks to help sell shares to institutions worldwide.
Then comes the road show, a series of meetings where SpaceX executives pitch the investment case to large investors. At that point, they'll have a better idea of the demand for SpaceX shares and can set a price for shares at the IPO.
The final offering price is set the night before trading begins, driven by road show feedback, how comparable companies were priced, and whatever the broader market is doing that week.
What 'Confidentially Filed' MeansSince 2017, any company pursuing an IPO could file its registration paperwork with the SEC confidentially—submitting what's called a draft registration statement. Regulators review the documents and send back comments, typically requesting additional disclosures, before the filing goes public.
The company revises and responds—it sometimes takes multiple rounds. Only once the SEC declares the registration effective does the prospectus go public.
For SpaceX, that means details about its rocket launches, Starlink subscriber counts, xAI revenues, and combined balance sheet will stay hidden until weeks before the listing.
Crypto is for closers, bear market or not.
Though coin prices have been almost cut in half since reaching record highs in October, crypto shops are still cutting deals and landing on major U.S. exchanges. CoinShares, a European asset manager best known for their crypto ETFs, is the latest newcomer to the Nasdaq Exchange, listing under the ticker "CSHR" on Wednesday after closing its deal with blank-check company Vine Hill Capital. Shares closed 1.3% lower at $8.61.
Companies try to time their public debuts when market vibes are good, which hasn't been the case lately given the warring in the Middle East. CoinShares CEO and co-founder Jean-Marie Mognetti told CNBC in an interview that U.S. stock performance wasn't a factor in their decision: "We are not listing because the market is easy, we are listing because the business is ready for it."
Crypto firms are proliferating on U.S. stock exchanges though coin prices have hit the skids.
Separately, U.S. asset manager Franklin Templeton, a part of Franklin Resources (BEN), said it agreed to acquire 250 Digital, a crypto investment management firm spun off from CoinFund management. The deal would include 250 Digital's investment team and its crypto strategies previously run by CoinFund, which would make up Franklin Templeton's newly formed Franklin Crypto unit. Shares of Franklin Resources closed little changed.
Recently announced deals are pointed at money management, suggesting digital asset firms still see opportunities to make inroads in traditional finance, or what they call "TradFi."
Other crypto companies are waiting in the wings to go public, even as already-public crypto-linked businesses—pummeled through the first quarter—have made moves to expand beyond digital assets.
Abra Financial Holdings, a crypto wealth management platform, last month said it agreed to merge with blank-check company New Providence Acquisition Corp III (NPACU). It is expected to list on the Nasdaq after the deal closes under the symbol "ABRX."
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