Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

• Stocks just posted their worst quarterly performance since 2022, with the S&P 500 dragged down by the war in Iran, which has added soaring oil prices to a heap of pressures on the economy.
• Unlike last year's tariff tantrums when investors enthusiastically bought the dip, traders are cautiously watching developments in the Middle East, which has kept the major stock indexes in a slow and steady downtrend.

It’s been one year since “Liberation Day” rewrote the Wall Street playbook. Investors are being put to a different test in 2026.

The S&P 500 is down nearly 5% since the start of the year, making the first quarter the index's worst since 2022, with the losses coming entirely after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February. The ensuing conflict has disrupted oil production, processing, and shipping across the Middle East, causing oil prices to skyrocket. Economists and investors fear higher energy costs will fuel inflation, which was creeping higher before the war began, and weigh on an already wobbly labor market.

Around this time last year, the stock market had a meltdown when President Donald Trump revealed his sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs. After a week of panic, Trump backtracked and the notion of the “TACO trade”—short for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” suggesting that he will adapt policy to market pressure—was born. 

Investors got a taste of the TACO on Tuesday when stocks soared, notching their best day in nearly a year following reports that President Trump may be willing to withdraw from the war in Iran without fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the vital chokepoint at the center of the current energy crisis.

But prior to Tuesday, investors weren't buying the White House's assurances of a short, tidy war. “Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the tariff trade is going to be exactly proxied in 2026,” said Gina Martin Adams, chief market strategist at HB Wealth, in an interview with Investopedia late last week.

The U.S. stock market and economy have proved resilient in recent years, weathering unpredictable shifts in trade policy throughout 2025, as well as years of elevated inflation and interest rates. But the war in Iran, now entering its second month, could be the bull market's biggest test yet.

Adams described the market’s decline over the weeks leading up to Tuesday's rally as “death by 1,000 cuts,” an uncomfortable scenario for investors who’ve grown accustomed in the past year to sharp sell-offs and sharper rebounds. “Even though we've had a couple of pretty rough downside days,” said Adams, “the recovery days are not emerging.” 

Trading in recent weeks has offered ample signs that investors are cautious. Last Monday, when stocks jumped on news of negotiations to wind down the war, retail investors sold the rally. According to market analytics firm S3 Partners, trading patterns in Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) options contracts suggest both long and short investors are risk-averse.

“Short investors covering, long investors taking profits,” S3 analysts wrote last week.

The Iran war is just one of the factors that has investors anxious. Concerns about AI-driven disruption in the software industry, which hammered sector stocks in the first two months of the year, have taken a back seat to the war, but they haven’t dissipated. Investors will be scrutinizing earnings reports in April for clarity on how software companies are navigating the environment.

Software companies are "going to have to confirm what the market is now saying, and that is, ‘Oh, it's not going to be that bad,’” said Adams. 

The financial sector is another group Adams will be following closely throughout earnings season. Financial stocks lagged the market heading into the Iran war as investors grappled with worries about the private credit industry’s lax underwriting standards, excessive leverage, and exposure to AI-threatened software businesses. 

“Financials, historically, are a pretty good indicator of market direction,” said Adams. “If the companies come out and speak very positively about the outlook, there does appear to be a really strong opportunity for recovery there. If they don't, then we'll continue to see this sector operate as a drag on the market.”

Despite the tangle of risks hanging over markets, many on Wall Street remain optimistic. Analysts expect the S&P 500 to rise nearly 30% over the next year, according to a FactSet aggregation of company stock price targets. If those targets prove accurate, analysts see tech stocks rising more than 40% to lead a rally across every sector except energy, the only one to have advanced in the past month.

Morgan Stanley analysts in a note on Monday said there is “growing evidence the S&P 500 correction is getting closer to its ending stages,” citing compressed multiples, strong earnings growth, and an increase in oil prices viewed as subdued when compared with past oil shocks that pushed the economy into recession.

“Our baseline is that concerns over AI disruption, private credit and geopolitics reflect real and material risks, but ones that will nonetheless fall short of derailing the current growth cycle,” wrote Barclays analysts in a note last week. The firm raised its full-year S&P 500 earnings estimate and its year-end target for the index, citing “a secular growth engine in Technology that shows few signs of stopping.”

Update—March 31, 2026: This story has been updated to reflect the close of markets on Tuesday.

• McCormick is merging its operations with Unilever's food business, in a deal that will value the combined entity at about $65 billion.
• Executives from both companies will lead the C-suite and board, with Unilever and its shareholders owning about two-thirds of the company.

The grocery aisle is getting a new spice, soup, and sauce conglomerate.

Hellmann's mayonnaise and Knorr's soup owner Unilever (UL) said Tuesday it's agreed to a deal combining its food brands with McCormick (MKC), known for its spices and condiments like French's mustard and Cholula hot sauce. McCormick said in a press release that it would pay Unilever $15.7 billion in cash and about $29.1 billion in stock of the newly combined company.

Unilever is set to own 9.9% of the company, with Unilever shareholders and McCormick owning 55.1% and 35%, respectively. McCormick said the deal values its business at $21 billion and Unilever's food division at $44.8 billion, valuing the combined entity just above $65 billion. McCormick will retain its name and New York Stock Exchange listing, with executives from both companies set to lead the C-suite and board.

Tuesday's announcement could bring more certainty for investors, after a slide in Unilever and McCormick shares in recent weeks amid uncertainty about the terms of the deal.

Pending shareholder and regulatory approval, the deal is expected to close by the middle of next year, the companies said.

Also on Tuesday, McCormick posted first-quarter adjusted earnings of 66 cents per share on revenue of $1.87 billion, topping analysts' consensus estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

McCormick shares were down about 5% recently, while Unilever's U.S.-listed shares lost 6%. Since the start of the year, McCormick stock has lost one-quarter of its value, while Unilever stock is down 14% over the same period.

News of the day for March 31, 2026

Stocks are moving higher to close out the month, but the first quarter is still poised to be the worst for major indexes since 2022; crude oil prices rose again amid reports that President Trump is willing to end the Iran war without the Strait of Hormuz being reopened; gas prices have topped $4 a gallon on average for the first time in four years; Unilever and McCormick announced a merger of Unilever's food brands with McCormick; and Netflix is reportedly interested in adding more NFL games to its live sports calendar as it enters the last year of its Christmas broadcasting deal. Here's what you need to know today.

Stock futures are pointing to a higher open for the final trading session of the first quarter as a volatile month of trading fueled by concerns about the impact of the Iran War draws to a close. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were each up 1% recently. The major indexes, which turned in a mixed performance on Monday, are on track to post their biggest quarterly losses since the second quarter of 2022. The Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500 and Dow enter Tuesday's session down a respective 10.5%, 7.3% and 5.9% for the quarter. Crude oil prices continued to rally this morning (more on that below), while gold futures were up roughly 1% at $4,580 an ounce. The 10-year Treasury yield, which affects interest rates on all sorts of loans, was at 4.32% this morning, losing ground for the second straight day after rising to an 8-month high of 4.44% on Friday. Bitcoin was trading around $66,500 recently, down from overnight highs above $68,000.

Crude oil futures rose further above $100 a barrel this morning amid the latest developments in Iran. The Wall Street Journal reported late Monday that President Trump has told people close to him that he could be willing to end the war with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, as pushing negotiations to the point that the Strait is reopened would extend the conflict. The plan would likely be to end the war with significant damage done to Iran's navy and missile capabilities, with political pressure to reopen the Strait to free trade likely coming later from the U.S. and potentially European allies. Late last week, Trump pushed back his deadline for the Strait to be reopened as part of ceasefire talks to April 6, after previously threatening to bomb Iranian power plants if the Strait wasn't open by certain dates. West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, were little changed recently at $103 per barrel, after moving as high as $107 earlier in the session, trading at their highest levels since 2022.

As oil prices have surged, so have prices at the pump and elsewhere in the economy for Americans. According to the American Automobile Association, the average price for a gallon of gas is at $4.02 a gallon as of Tuesday morning. That's up more than $1 from a month ago, just as the Iran war got underway, and the highest point for gas prices since mid-2022, when oil prices had surged following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and post-pandemic travel demand picked up in the U.S. The average price of a gallon of hass is above $5 in California, Washington and Hawaii, while its above $4.90 in Oregon and Nevada.

Unilever (UL) is combining its food brands with McCormick (MKC), creating a new food conglomerate worth more than $60 billion. Under the terms of the transaction announced early Tuesday by the two companies, McCormick will pay Unilever $15.7 billion in cash, and Unilever and its shareholders will own 65% of the combined company at the closing of the deal. Several media outlets had reported overnight that a deal was close to being announced. The deal will put well-known Unilever brands such as Knorr and Hellmann's under the same corporate umbrella as McCormick's spices and sauces. "This transformative combination accelerates McCormick's strategy and reinforces our continued focus on flavor," McCormick CEO Brendan Foley said in the release. Also Tuesday, McCormick posted better-than-expected results for the first quarter. McCormick shares were up 1.5% in recent premarket trading, while Unilever's U.S.-listed shares rose less than 1%.

Netflix (NFLX) is looking to double the size of its NFL offerings to four games, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal. The streaming giant is in the final year of a three-year agreement to broadcast two games on Christmas, and is reportedly interested in adding two others, potentially an international game during the opening week of the regular season, and another that the NFL has considered adding on the day before Thanksgiving. Other streaming partners including Alphabet's (GOOGL) YouTube and Amazon (AMZN) are also exploring the idea of adding more games to their agreements, the Journal reported. Streaming companies have increasingly turned to live sports in recent years as a new area of content that could draw in new subscribers because of their consistent live viewership numbers.

• Downloads of Clear's app for faster security screening at airports have soared as frustrated travelers contend with long lines amid a partial government shutdown.
• Shares of Clear Secure have also surged, adding roughly 40% their value since the year began.

Long security lines at the airport have powered a stock-market winner you might not have heard of.

Analysts at JP Morgan in a recent note said that while Transportation Security Administration workers' callout rates have started to improve since President Donald Trump signed an executive order to pay TSA agents, they remain elevated. That could keep demand for Clear running high, the analysts said, though downloads of the app have likely peaked.

As frustrated travelers have contended with longer-than-usual wait times—and Americans have been assaulted by horror stories about the lines in the news and on social media—amid a partial government shutdown, Clear Secure (YOU), which operates the Clear screening system, has been a steady gainer. The stock, up more than 3% on Monday, is up about 40% this year, with most of that coming after the shutdown began in mid-February.

Clear's membership program, which promises shorter lines at the airport by speeding up the identity verification part of the process, costs $209 a year. At airports where it's offered, members can move to the front of the TSA's ID screening lines, ahead of any other passengers without Clear—and including those with TSA PreCheck.

TSA PreCheck does offer other perks that can speed up parts of the process. For instance, you don't have to remove shoes, belts and laptops in security with PreCheck; You can also get TSA PreCheck bundled with Clear at no extra cost when you sign up. On its own, TSA PreCheck can cost as much as $85 for a new five-year membership. (Some credit cards include benefits and discounts associated with these services.)

Clear did not respond to Investopedia's request for comment in time for publication.

• Job switchers are bringing in much smaller raises than they did during the post-pandemic period, when employers offered hefty raises to attract workers.
• A Bank of America study showed that job switchers in January received raises that were less than half the size of the pay increases they had received before the pandemic.
• Other research shows that smaller raises for job switchers are part of a larger trend of declining wage growth that stretches back to the 1980s.

Not too long ago, workers had a clear path to earn more pay: find a better job.

But with the job market now showing signs of slowing, there are now fewer opportunities for workers to improve their pay by switching jobs, new research shows.

In January, people who switched jobs received a 4% pay increase, well below the recent peak of around 14% in 2022 and less than half the pre-pandemic 2019 average, according to Bank of America research. And a separate National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) report found that workers today were half as likely to receive a better-paying outside job offer as they were in the 1980s.

When workers can no longer rely on switching jobs to boost their pay, overall wage growth tends to slow, which can limit consumer spending and affect broader economic growth. For investors and policymakers, weaker wage gains may signal a cooling labor market, influencing interest rate decisions, corporate profits, and the outlook for inflation.

“With fewer open roles, the job‑change premium – the extra pay boost workers typically receive when they switch jobs – has started to compress across the board,” wrote Bank of America economist Taylor Bowley. “This softening matters because job changing remains one of the most effective ways workers secure higher pay.”

With labor scarce after the pandemic, employers raised wages to attract workers, which helped pay increases surge. 

After surging to around 3% during the 2022 “Great Resignation” wage-growth boom that followed the Covid-19 pandemic, the quit rate for workers dropped to around 2% in January, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Now, the U.S. labor market has shown signs of slowing, including employers cutting 92,000 jobs in February. 

The declining pay gains for job switchers were part of a longer-term trend that has slowed real wage growth to nearly zero since the 1980s, the NBER report found. 

A decline in the number of employers as industries consolidate and the growing use of noncompete agreements have curtailed opportunities for job shopping. The result has been a decline in annual wage growth of 0.68 percentage points over that period. 

Episode 288 of the Investopedia Express podcast with Caleb Silver (Mar. 30, 2026)

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Investors are feeling the fear as the Dow follows the Nasdaq into a correction and the most popular stocks are reeling from double-digit selloffs. With no clear end in sight to rising oil prices and the war in Iran, the sirens of stagflation are awakening our animal spirits. Douglas Boneparth of Bonefide Wealth drops in with some financial therapy for long-term investors and helps us refocus on the plan. Plus, as stocks skid we drop some bars to break it down, and what an Italian mathematician from the Dark Ages can teach us about when this selloff might finally end. 

• Major U.S. benchmark indexes got a lift after President Trump's latest warning to Iran, but the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq slipped into the red by the market's close.
• Though market experts and investors appear to agree that Middle East tensions will continue to hamper equity markets, many are suggesting it's not a bad time to buy.

Advance or retreat? That's the question on investors' minds as the war in Iran enters its fifth week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rose immediately following President Donald Trump's most recent warning to Iran, but those gains quickly evaporated. "Great progress has been made," Trump said in a Monday morning social media post, saying that "if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached" the U.S. would ramp up attacks on Iran's energy complex. All three major indexes slipped into the red by the afternoon, though, the Dow managed to eke out a slight rise by the close.

Nobody knows exactly when, or how, the conflict in Iran will end. But a number of market watchers insist that the pressure it's put on markets has U.S. stocks looking cheap—even as some investors have shown a newfound caution about buying the dip.

Broad market indexes can't seem to find a direction and stick with it amid the war in Iran, but even if the conflict were to end sooner rather than later, experts don't expect things to go back to normal immediately.

"Maybe the markets are a little bit oversold," Strategas Research Partners' Jason Trennert said in an interview with CNBC early Monday before the market's turn.

U.S. stocks appear to be pricing in an "ongoing constraints" scenario, in which ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz mean crude supplies remain tight and oil prices end the second quarter at $110 per barrel, Morgan Stanley's stock strategists including Michael Wilson, said in a report on Monday. That may not be obvious since broad market indexes appear to be down one day, and up another, but the "damage under the surface," according to the firm, is "significant already."

More than half of the companies in the Russell 3000, a total market index that represents almost all U.S. stocks, have fallen at least 20% from 52-week highs, according to the firm. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio has contracted about 17% since the start of the war in Iran, matching prior "growth scares" that didn't involve recession or the Federal Reserve raising rates.

Morgan Stanley thinks it's more likely that the Strait reopens and oil flows return to normal than that the conflict contributes to a recession. Unlike prior growth scares, they wrote, S&P companies earnings are going up, and the increase in oil prices, while high, isn't as big. The big risk for U.S. stocks is if the Federal Reserve starts to hike, according to Morgan Stanley.

"Even if the war were to end tomorrow," Strategas' Trennert said, the market may not immediately go back to normal. The sooner it ends, however, the better, because it will take time for inflation to come down, only after which the Fed might resume lowering rates. Prediction market bettors place the highest probability of a "U.S. x Iran ceasefire" occurring by Dec. 31, with virtually no chance of it happening tomorrow, according to Polymarket data.

Meanwhile, industry analysts' outlook for the S&P 500 remains rosy, with consensus price targets last week implying upside of around 30% over the next 12 mos. for the U.S. benchmark index, according to FactSet's John Butters.

That outlook would make stocks look especially attractive now. "Some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices,"Pershing Square chief Bill Ackman wrote in a social media post on Sunday. "Ignore the bears."

• CrowdStrike shares climbed Monday, as analysts from Wolfe Research upgraded the cybersecurity firm.
• Monday's gains helped the stock recover some of its recent losses amid worries about AI-driven disruption.
• The analysts suggested more capable AI models could help CrowdStrike's business, expecting new AI threats to boost demand for its services.

CrowdStrike's stock just gained another vote of support on Wall Street.

Shares of CrowdStrike (CRWD) were up about 4% to $383 in recent trading, making it one of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 Monday as analysts from Wolfe Research upgraded their rating of the cybersecurity giant to "outperform" and gave the stock a $450 price target. That's still a bit below the $492 consensus target of analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha, who are largely bullish on the stock.

The gains helped the stock recover some of its recent losses amid worries that new AI offerings could disrupt its business. Wolfe said it views the latest developments in AI—and related risks—as more of a boon than a threat, suggesting they could boost demand and "ignite a machine speed cyberwar the likes of which we have never seen."

With its upgrade, Wolfe joins analysts at Wedbush and other firms who've suggested the rise of AI and new tools could present more opportunities than risks for leading cybersecurity providers.

Cybersecurity and other software stocks have been pressured in recent months amid concerns their businesses could be disrupted by developments in AI. On Friday, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, and other stocks in the sector tumbled in the wake of a report that Anthropic is seen releasing a new model with stronger cybersecurity capabilities.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) gained along with CrowdStrike Monday, with shares up some 5% recently. Even with today's gains, however, both stocks have lost close to 20% of their value since the star of the year.

• The price of bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, fell roughly 25% in the past three months—posting roughly the same performance as it did in the fourth quarter of last year.
• Bernstein analysts say that the crypto stock complex could be nearing a bottom as earnings season starts.

Has crypto found its bottom after a bruising start to 2026?

That's the question on many investors' minds after a stretch during which "ngmi" energy—the acronym is used by crypto backers to describe something that's "not gonna make it"—sometimes seemed inescapable: The prices of bitcoin and crypto stocks had a challenging first quarter, and what looked like promising regulatory progress is now rumbling over speed bumps.

Crypto market charts look bad, and its status in Washington would appear dimmed. But coin enthusiasts aren't done—and they see some of the industry's recent building efforts as a reason for optimism.

The year opened with expectations that the Clarity Act, a bill that would create a broad framework for regulating digital assets, would pass in 2026, which according to experts would help reverse a crypto slide that started late last year. Now it appears that crypto may have overestimated its sway in Washington, with perceived odds of the bill passing recently just under coin-flip levels from above 80% in February, Polymarket data show.

If the price of bitcoin is a barometer for crypto at large, it's not doing so hot despite signs of strength during the Iran conflict. The coin has extended its decline after entering a bear market at the end of last year, and it has been cut almost in half since reaching all-time highs above $126,000 in October. Crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase (COIN), Strategy (MSTR), and Gemini (GEMI) were down at least 18% for the quarter. Industry players are testing other opportunities in the meantime: Coinbase now offers stock trading, bitcoin miners are pivoting to AI, and Strategy's Michael Saylor is evangelizing preferred issues alongside bitcoin.

Some analysts think upside will return soon, with companies starting to see the benefits of their building efforts. "Expect a bottom" into first-quarter earnings, Bernstein stock analysts led by Gautam Chhugani, who expect bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of the year, wrote Monday.

"In our view, these businesses offer exposure to trillion dollar markets with years of growth ahead —prediction markets, stablecoins, tokenized real world assets, crypto derivatives and further beta on crypto recovery from the bottom," they wrote.

Coinbase recently rolled out commission-free trading in stocks and exchange-traded funds to its U.S. users and got into prediction markets. Robinhood (HOOD), which has fallen almost 40% so far this year, should also benefit as its prediction markets business becomes a "material contributor," according to Bernstein.

Strategy's pivot to selling preferred shares has been a hit with retail investors as well as institutional ones, though its recent marketing efforts around them—most recently, what appears to be an AI-generated ad featuring a woman saying she "not meant to live an uncomfortable life"—isn't landing with crypto enthusiasts like Saylor's bitcoin content.

Mining companies that use specialized hardware to verify transactions and earn bitcoin have strategically pivoted to AI. MARA Holdings (MARA), formerly Marathon Digital, last month announced a deal that involved converting some of its facilities, originally intended to mine bitcoin, into data centers meant to support AI customers.

The company said last week that it sold more than 15,000 bitcoin to buy back debt—perhaps not great for coin markets, but a positive for its financials. "Our decision to sell a portion of our bitcoin holdings reflects a strategic capital allocation move designed to strengthen our balance sheet and position the company for long-term growth," said CEO Fred Thiel.

Bitcoin ETF flows appear to be holding up better than than those of gold and silver funds. Gold ETFs saw almost $11 billion of outflows over the first three weeks of March, and cumulative silver flows have pretty much given back all of their inflows since last summer, according to JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Bitcoin funds, he said, have seen net inflows over the same period.

Big financial services companies, meanwhile, continue to roll out bitcoin products. Morgan Stanley last week filed to launch what would be the cheapest U.S. spot bitcoin ETF, with a fee of 0.14%—just undercutting Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust's That could spur even more buying given the firm's legions of financial advisors and the pullback in the price of bitcoin.

But some market watchers still see the need for caution; crypto got here, after all, after a long, at times dizzying, runup.

"The good news is fear is getting priced in," Sean Farrell, Fundstrat's head of digital asset strategy, wrote Friday. "The bad news is there's likely more to go."

UPDATE—Mar. 31, 2026: This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent prices.

• Eli Lilly is expanding its partnership with Insilico Medicine, an AI drug development company based in Hong Kong.
• The companies have worked together since 2023.

Eli Lilly is doubling down on AI drug development with its latest deal.

Eli Lilly (LLY) is expanding its partnership with Insilico Medicine, a Hong Kong-based firm that is developing drugs with AI tools, the companies announced late Sunday. The deal gives the Zepbound and Mounjaro maker an exclusive license to sell any of Insilico's drugs that make it to the market, with the companies also collaborating on drug development.

"Insilico's AI-enabled discovery capabilities represent a powerful complement to Lilly's deep expertise in clinical development across multiple therapeutic areas," Eli Lilly's group vice president of Molecule Discovery Andrew Adams said.

Eli Lilly and other drugmakers have partnered with AI companies like Insilico and OpenAI to use AI tools with the goal of finding new treatments for diseases. The latest agreement suggests Eli Lilly is bullish about the potential of the technology.

Eli Lilly is paying Insilico $115 million up front, with a number of development, regulatory, and sales milestones that could lift the deal's value as high as $2.75 billion. The companies first started working together with a software licensing deal in 2023, and expanded their partnership last November to include a research collaboration worth $100 million or more.

Around half of the 28 drugs that have been developed by Insilico's AI are in the clinical trial stage, Insilico CEO Alex Zhavoronkov told CNBC. The company develops its AI tools in Canada and the Middle East, with early clinical development on the drug compounds identified by the AI done in China, Zhavoronkov said.

Eli Lilly shares were up about 1% in early trading Monday, leaving the drugmaker's stock down nearly 20% since the start of the year.