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The war in Iran snapped trends, sending assets off in different directions.
Crude oil prices surged to record highs since the U.S. and Israel's initial strikes on Iran a month ago. Brent futures, the international benchmark, late Friday traded at around $106 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. yardstick, at just under $100, levels not seen since the pandemic. Between the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade passageway, and the destruction to the energy complex in the Middle East, the shock to the global energy market has started to draw comparisons to historic oil crises. And President Donald Trump's moves this week to de-escalate tensions with Iran, pausing military attacks in a bid to negotiate a hard-to-land deal, don't appear to have soothed crude markets.
Higher crude prices would also appear to have changed the Federal Reserve's posture to slightly hawkish, with traders now pricing in the potential of interest rates going up, not down—the knock-on effects of which are also reflected in metals and crypto. (For a look at the stock market's winners and losers, click here.)
The war in Iran would appear to have shuffled the performance ranks of commodities, putting crude oil at the top, and precious metals at the bottom after doing the opposite in 2025.
Precious metals, including gold and silver, have tanked as momentum behind the two best trades of 2025 dissipated, disappointing investors who expected haven assets to deliver some protection from the geopolitical uncertainty. The U.S. dollar, which has gradually declined in status, ticked back up, and—because of its inverse relationship to gold prices—added downside pressure to precious metal prices.
Meanwhile bitcoin, which had been in decline since hitting all-time highs in October, was a safer haven than gold. Prices aren't much higher than they were at the start of the war in Iran, but the cryptocurrency is doing better than the S&P 500.
As of Friday afternoon, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) are down 14% and 25%, respectively, since the start of the war. The United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO), is up 51%, and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is flat.
Spot gold prices are still aloft, at about $4,530 per troy ounce, in spite of the recent underperformance. Silver is sitting at around $70. Bitcoin is near $66,000.
Even if the war in Iran were to be called off, and the Strait of Hormuz was reopened, markets may not revert to where they were at the top of the year, given the damage already done—at least for crude oil prices, on which much would appear to hinge.
It would still take three or four months to fully restore crude oil production, Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets' global head of commodity strategy, said in an interview with CNBC on Thursday. The big question, she said, is "when are we getting the Strait of Hormuz open again."
"We have to brace for an extended military operation potentially," Croft said.
This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect updated asset prices.
The Iran ultimatum has shifted—and investor fears are back on the agenda.
President Donald Trump yesterday afternoon on social media said he is further "pausing" threatened attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure to the evening of April 6, saying talks "are ongoing" and "going very well." That appears to have renewed investor worry that the war will drag on well past its first month, raising the specter of ills including inflation and higher prices on vital goods and services.
Stocks were falling Friday, extending a substantial Thursday pullback that saw the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite finish the day in a correction. The S&P 500 is on track to post its 5th consecutive weekly decline.
Retail investors have lately shown unwillingness to buy the dip, and some strategists are getting more cautious. Citi in a Friday note said it had pulled back on its suggested allocation to stocks globally, though it remains more upbeat about U.S. equities than those elsewhere, as "hopes of a fast resolution to the war fade."
While many market experts have cautioned investors not to overreact to war headlines and focus on the longer-term outlook, on a day-to-day basis markets have been active to close the week.
Those worries have contributed to a range of readouts that, taken together, illustrate the uncertain moment for investor positioning. The VIX—the options measure known as Wall Street's fear gauge, which is viewed as a barometer of market uncertainty—has risen all week from levels below 23 to near 30, a reading seen as reflecting uncertainty, though not panic. CNN's Fear & Greed Index currently reads "Extreme Fear," about the same as a week ago, though a substantial intensification from a "Fear" measure a month earlier.
Another "fear and greed" model, from SentimenTrader, recently dropped to a level seen just 31 times since 1998. That, the organization said in emailed comments, has pointed toward two-month gains for the S&P 500 in less than half the instances. (After four months, the benchmark index was higher more than four-fifths of the time.)
CoinMarketCap's Crypto Fear & Greed Index—bitcoin has held up pretty well as a hedge during the Iran conflict—reads a bit more positive, at "Fear," rising off early February lows. And the latest weekly American Association of Individual Investors survey of sentiment, released Wednesday, points to a degree of bearishness that is well above historical levels but in line with recent measures.
"Markets are overreacting to what will likely be a 4- to 6-week period of volatility, which will ultimately result in 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains and geopolitics," wrote Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok in emailed comments.
Pretty much everyone felt worse about the economy and household finances in March as the Iran war pushed up gas prices and threatened the outlook for the future.
That's according to the University of Michigan's survey of consumers Friday, which showed consumer sentiment dropped 6% in March from the month before to its lowest level since December. The downturn was seen in all ages and political party affiliations. Middle and higher-income consumers, whose wealth had been bolstered by the rising stock market earlier this year, saw the sharpest declines as the Iran war rattles financial markets. About two-thirds of the interviews for the survey were completed after the armed conflict began in late February.
Economists view consumer sentiment as a useful albeit imperfect leading indicator of consumer spending, so the plunge in the reading is a red flag for the trajectory of the economy as a whole.
The downturn in consumer sentiment could indicate people are preparing to tighten their belts and spend less, a red flag for consumer spending and the outlook for the economy as a whole.
“American consumers are in a grim mood as they worry about high gas prices, falling stock prices and an uneasy year ahead," Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary. "If the war in Iran continues, it may hit new lows."
Consumers' outlook dropped more for the medium term and less for the long term, suggesting they don't believe the disruptions from the Iran war will last very long. The short-run economic outlook dropped 14%, and that for year-ahead finances fell 10%.
"These views are subject to change, however, if the Iran conflict becomes protracted or if higher energy prices pass through to overall inflation," Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys of consumers, wrote in a note accompanying the data.
The Iran war is just the latest of many headwinds making consumers feel sour about the economy and their pocketbooks.
"As if consumers needed more to worry about, the conflict in the Middle East has driven up gasoline prices and raised fears that they will keep rising," Scott Hoyt, an economist at Moody's Analytics, wrote in a commentary. "This occurred when many Americans were already deeply unhappy with their financial situation, and for good reasons. They have been grappling with a severe affordability squeeze. Prices for many things, from groceries to car insurance, are high and climbing. Meanwhile, pay increases are slowing as job growth has stalled, jobs are hard to find, and unemployment has risen."
Unity Software's stock is surging after the company gave investors a promising preview of its first-quarter results, and said it's making some big changes to its business.
Unity Software (U) shares were up over 11% in early trading Friday after the company issued preliminary first-quarter results above analysts' forecasts. Unity said it expects a 58% year-over-year jump in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) to between $130 million to $135 million, on revenue of $505 million to $508 million.
The company also said it would shut down its ironSource Ads Network at the end of the month, and look for a buyer for its Supersonic game publishing business. After those moves are made, Unity said it expects revenue and profitability to grow at a faster rate.
Friday's move suggests investors are enthusiastic about Unity's preliminary first-quarter results and plans to run a more efficient business.
CEO Matthew Bromberg told CNBC Thursday that he considers the moves to be "addition by subtraction" as Unity exits "two of our slower growing businesses."
William Blair analysts said following the announcement that they "believe this further streamlines the company’s operating portfolio, which in turn will support both faster top-line revenue growth and greater levels of profitability."
Even with Friday's gains, Unity shares have lost more than half their value since the start of the year, after a broader pullback in software stocks amid worries about AI-driven disruption.
News of the day for March 27, 2026
Stocks sank Thursday amid renewed uncertainty that the Iran war will end quicklyStock futures are lower Friday as the major indexes aim to avoid losing ground for a fifth straight week amid uncertainty over the Iran war; President Trump set April 6 as the new deadline for talks with Iran before the U.S. attacks power plants in the country; the Senate approved a bill to fund most of the Department of Homeland Security in a step to end the ongoing TSA worker shortage; SpaceX is reportedly targeting June for its initial public offering, looking to raise between $40 billion and $80 billion; and shares of video game software maker Unity are soaring after the company released preliminary first-quarter results that topped its previous forecasts. Here's what you need to know today.
Stock Futures Fall as Major Indexes Look to Break 4-Week SkidsStock futures are pointing to a lower open as investors monitor developments in the Iran war. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were each down 0.5% recently, while Nasdaq futures declined 0.7%. All three indexes slid on Thursday amid renewed uncertainty over how long the Iran war will last, with the Nasdaq officially entering correction territory as it sank 2.4%. After four straight weeks of losses, the Dow enters Friday's session up nearly 1% so far this week, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down slightly. West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark were up more than 2% this morning at $96.50 per barrel amid ongoing concerns about global supply. Gold futures were up 0.8% at $4,410 an ounce, while bitcoin dropped to $66,600 from an overnight high above $69,000. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects interest rates on all sorts of consumer loans, was at 4.46%, up from 4.42% at yesterday's close and trading at its highest level since last summer.
Trump Pushes Back Deadline For Iran DealJust after markets closed Thursday, President Trump said on social media that he is setting a new deadline for ceasefire talks with Iran: April 6 at 8 p.m. ET. The announcement came after Trump previously said the U.S. military would begin attacking power plants in the country if Iran didn't open the Strait of Hormuz by Monday night at the start of this week, before pushing that deadline back multiple times. Meanwhile, reports this week said that the U.S. sent a 15-point plan for an end to the war to Iran, and Iran sent a five-point plan back to the U.S., though Iranian officials stated publicly that they had no interest in talks with American officials. While the war drags on, gas prices have surged along with the rise in crude oil prices. Gas, on average, costs just under $4 a gallon, up $1 since the start of the war.
Senate Approves Bill Funding Most of DHS, Ending TSA CrisisEarly this morning, the Senate agreed to pass most of a funding package for the Department of Homeland Security, putting the government on track to end the partial government shutdown that has left Transportation Security Administration workers without pay and created long lines at airports across the U.S. The bill—which will also fund the Coast Guard and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, but not Immigration and Customs Enforcement or Border Patrol—has been sent to the House, which is expected to act quickly Friday. The standoff over DHS funding started over a month ago, when Democrats in Congress refused to sign a bill providing further funding to Trump's immigration enforcement operations after ICE agents shot and killed Alex Pretti and Renee Good during January enforcement operations in Minneapolis.
SpaceX IPO Could Come as Soon as June, Raising $40B-$80BInvestors could get a chance to bet on another of Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk's companies as early as this summer, as the newly combined company of SpaceX, X social media platform and xAI is targeting a June initial public offering, per The Wall Street Journal. The company is expected to file confidentially with the Securities and Exchange Commission sometime soon, with a public filing coming in the months that follow. SpaceX is considering a range of non-traditional features with its IPO, from having investors travel to see the company rather than executives traveling to pitch investors, to offering up to a third of the shares being sold to individual investors, and more, the Journal reported. While a valuation is still being decided, SpaceX will likely look to raise between $40 billion and $80 billion, with previous reports saying the company would likely be valued at over $1 trillion in its debut.
Unity Stock Surges on Solid Results and Closure, Sale of Some DivisionsShares of Unity Software (U) are jumping Friday after the company issued preliminary first-quarter results above its previous outlook. The video game development platform company also said it would shut down its ironSource Ads Network at the end of the month, and look for a buyer for its Supersonic game publishing business. After those moves are made, Unity said it expects revenue and profitability to grow at a faster rate. Shares of the company were up 14% in recent premarket trading, after entering Friday down roughly 60% since the start of the year.
Nike is slated to post its latest quarterly earnings after the closing bell Tuesday, with some traders expecting its stock could hit its lowest level in more than a decade following the results.
Based on recent options pricing, traders anticipate Nike's (NKE) stock could swing up to 9% by the end of the holiday-shortened trading week after the report's release, with markets closed for Good Friday. A move of that size from Thursday's close could see shares sink just under $48, which would be their lowest level in more than a decade. The high end of that range would lift shares close to $57, recovering some of their recent losses.
Nike's stock has lost nearly 20% year-to-date amid worries about competition from other brands and how tariffs could impact Nike's business, along with headwinds in China.
Investors will likely be watching Nike's earnings and comments from executives for updates on the company's turnaround efforts under CEO Elliott Hill, who took over in late 2024.
UBS analysts said in a recent note that Nike's outlook will be of more interest than its third-quarter results. The analysts told clients some of their outstanding questions revolve around Nike's outlook in China and how Nike sees the tariff landscape following last month's Supreme Court ruling. The analysts said they'll also be looking for progress in Nike's turnaround efforts and how much the company expects this summer's World Cup to drive sales.
Barclays analysts, who recently upgraded Nike's stock to an "overweight" rating, told clients that they believe the stock and Nike's financial performance may have reached a "fundamental bottom" and could start to improve in the coming quarters.
Nike is projected to post nearly flat year-over-year revenue at $11.2 billion, along with earnings of 28 cents per share, down from 54 cents per share a year ago, per Visible Alpha estimates.
Despite the footwear maker's recent slump, analysts have remained largely bullish on Nike. The 13 analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha are split between eight "buy" ratings, and five neutral. Their average price target around $73 would suggest roughly 40% upside from Thursday's close.
AppLovin's tough start to the year just got rougher.
Shares of AppLovin (APP) dropped over 10% Thursday, making it one of the leading decliners in the S&P 500 on a down day for the tech sector and broader markets amid uncertainty around the war in Iran.
Among the factors likely weighing on AppLovin's stock Thursday was a report that Cleveland Research suggested digital advertising spending from new e-commerce customers hasn't been enough to offset the churn of old customers.
Thursday's sharp decline could point to weakening confidence in shares of AppLovin, which have had a volatile start to the year.
Despite strong strong quarterly profits, AppLovin's stock has been rattled in recent months by federal investigations and short-seller reports that took issue with AppLovin's business practices, though some claims were later retracted. AppLovin has also faced concerns around AI-driven disruption, along with other companies in the industry.
Still, Wall Street analysts have largely remained bullish on AppLovin. Eight of the nine analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha recommend buying the stock, compared to just one neutral rating. Their average price target around $654 would suggest 67% upside from Thursday's close.
With Thursday's slump, AppLovin shares have lost over 40% of their value since the start of the year.
A court ruling against the parent companies of Facebook and YouTube has investors worried about what's next for the powerhouse businesses—and sending their shares dramatically lower.
A Los Angeles jury decided that Meta Platforms (META) and Alphabet (GOOGL) were liable for building services with addictive features in a case brought by now a 20-year-old woman known as "K.G.M.", who accused the companies of creating products that facilitated addiction among children. Platforms like Meta's Instagram and Facebook, as well as Alphabet's YouTube, she alleged, were harmful to children's mental health. The defendants originally included TikTok and Snapchat, but they reached confidential settlements before trial. In a separate case this week, a New Mexico jury found Meta liable for insufficiently protecting children from a range of online threats.
Shares of Meta finished Thursday down nearly 8%—it shed some $120 billion in market value—and Alphabet about 3%, as investors, commentators and media asked aloud whether the industry was having a "Big Tobacco Moment"—in short, one that permanently changes the dynamics for a business as society's scrutiny and pushback intensifies. Reddit (RDDT), Pinterest (PINS) and Snap (SNAP) were similarly battered, with the latter notching a double-digit decline, underperforming the tech-heavy benchmark Nasdaq. (Read our full coverage of today's trading here.) Spokespeople for Meta and Google separately told Investopedia that the companies would appeal. Google's José Castañeda said that YouTube was not a "not a social media site."
If Big Tech is in fact having a Big Tobacco moment, their businesses could be subject to heightened legal and policy risk.
That a jury ruled against Meta and Alphabet isn't just bad for the companies, according to Eric Goldman, associate dean for research and professor of law at Santa Clara University wrote in a blog post yesterday. The companies' "liability exposure jeopardizes the entire social media industry," he said. The verdict, he wrote, is likely to "embolden" regulators and plaintiffs around the world "to impose their views on how social media services should publish content."
Ahmed Khan, a senior equity analyst at Morningstar, said investors are probably less worried about the financial penalties associated with the cases—both Alphabet and Meta have plenty of free cash—and more the policy risk, with both Republicans and Democrats "animated" by the issue at hand: social media's impact on young children. Young users, he noted, are a vital pipeline for social-media companies that could be endangered by legislation. Social-media firms have lately sought to be seen as operators of services safe for kids, unveiling new tools for limiting access to mature content and the ability to interact with adult users.
"Investors are worried about a regime change," said Khan. "If this was an idiosyncratic problem then Reddit and Snap and Pinterest wouldn't be down."
Khan said that while it's not certain that such a thing would happen, investors tend to overreact—as evident by how much Alphabet's stock is down even though YouTube is just a part of a $3.4 trillion company. "Herd mentality takes over. It's 'Sell now, and ask questions later.'"
The risks that investors may be reading too far into is detailed in Meta's and Google's annual financial disclosures. Both companies say that legal proceedings including ones brought by individuals have the potential to result in "substantial" costs to their business and could result in "reputational harm" or require them to change their business practices or products. They each also lay out related legal and regulatory risks to their businesses as well as perception-related ones.
"If people do not perceive our products to be useful, reliable, and trustworthy, we may not be able to attract or retain users or otherwise maintain or increase the frequency and duration of their engagement," Meta said of risks related to its product offerings.
This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect updated share-price movement.
Retail investors, the perennial optimists, are bullish no more.
Individual investors sold more single stocks than they bought on Monday, their first day of net selling since November 2023, according to Vanda Research. Analysts at Vanda called the day “a key inflection point” for retail investor sentiment, which they noted “has softened since the onset of the US-Iran conflict.”
Stocks jumped and oil prices plummeted at the open on Monday after President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran had engaged in “productive conversations” over the weekend to resolve the three-week-old war. The major indexes pared their gains throughout the day as investors parsed conflicting messages out of the White House and Tehran, which denied the existence of negotiations, but still posted their best day since early February. (Read our live coverage of today's markets here.)
Investors were nervous about the economy and markets before the war in Iran. The labor market has weakened over the past year while inflation has ticked higher in recent months, two trends that surging oil and fuel prices could exacerbate, raising the risk of stagflation. Investors are also anxious about the potential for AI to upend the labor market and entire industries—and about the state of stock valuations after a powerful and lengthy run-up that began, by one measure, in the summer of 2022.
Retail investors have become an increasingly consequential cohort within the stock market since Covid lockdowns in 2020 set the stage for the meme stock craze of 2021. Their reluctance to add risk to their portfolios despite negotiations in the Middle East could signal a decisive shift in investor sentiment—or widespread skepticism about peace prospects.
Retail investors’ skepticism was evident again on Wednesday when they sold $5.5 million of single stocks during another broad rally. Selling of Nvidia (NVDA), one of retail’s favorite stocks, was particularly aggressive, with investors dumping a net $55 million in the session’s first two hours, according to Vanda. “Retail is not chasing the ceasefire hope driven bounce and is instead trimming exposure in its most crowded AI winner,” Vanda’s researchers wrote.
The S&P 500 has declined about 5% since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February. Iran’s near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on key energy infrastructure across the Middle East have caused oil prices to skyrocket, threatening to fuel inflation and inflict significant damage on the global economy.
Financials have been hit particularly hard. Investors have been net sellers of stocks in the financial sector every week this year, according to data from Bank of America. Financial sector outflows reached “near-record” levels last week.
The financial sector’s troubles are partially being driven by stress in private credit markets, which investors fear could ripple through the financial system. But the weakness could also be attributed to heightened economic anxiety. According to Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, less than a quarter of financial stocks are trading above their lows in November, the last time equities experienced a significant pullback. It’s the worst-performing sector on that front.
“Because banking stocks often mirror the underlying economic environment, this weakness raises concerns about the durability of the current bull market,” Turnquist wrote in a note on Thursday.
The ongoing legal issue could affect the Fed's decision-making on interest rates
Credit: Chip Somodevilla / Getty ImagesBoth President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are digging in their heels in their conflict over the future of the central bank.
Trump showed support for the Justice Department's controversial probe of Powell Thursday at a cabinet meeting, insulting the outgoing Fed chair and praising Attorney General Pam Bondi and federal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro for pursuing an investigation of Powell's renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters.
The administration has subpoenaed the Fed over an ongoing renovation project of the Fed's headquarters, which Trump says is over-budget. Powell, his allies, and at least one Federal judge have said the investigation is an attempt to intimidate Powell into supporting the large interest rate cuts Trump has demanded of the Fed, an effort they say threatens the independence of the central bank.
"We have a moron at the Fed. Who wouldn't be lowering interest rates right now? But I want to thank Jeanine Pirro and Pam and her group for having the courage to bring this suit," Trump said.
The ongoing dispute over the Justice Department's investigation of Powell clouds the future of the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy. The central bank is seen as less likely to cut interest rates if Powell is not replaced as Fed chair, and the suit could have the effect of keeping him in office longer.
Trump criticized the renovation at length during the meeting, denouncing the removal of a "beautiful" ceiling and saying the project was costing billions too much.
At stake in the investigation is more than just matters of interior decoration. Powell, whose term as Fed chair ends in May, has said he won't leave his seat as a rank-and-file member of the Fed's board of governors until the investigation is permanently dropped. The probe also jeopardizes Trump's efforts to install a successor to Powell because a key senator has threatened to block the confirmation of Kevin Warsh, Trump's choice for Fed chair, unless the investigation is dropped.
Powell, along with numerous economists and some members of Congress, say the administration's strongarm legal tactics threaten the independence of the Fed. Congress established the Fed to be outside direct control of the White House, a feature that economists say is essential for the institution's credibility and its ability to control inflation using monetary policy.
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