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OpenAI launched the Sora app last September
Credit: Thomas Fuller / NurPhoto / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• OpenAI is shuttering its video generation app Sora, the company said Tuesday.
• The move could help the startup cut costs ahead of an initial public offering expected later this year.

OpenAI is shutting down its AI video generation app Sora, less than a year after its launch.

The company said on Sora's X account Tuesday that OpenAI it would share more details later on a timeline for the shutdown of the app, which saw a surge in popularity shortly after its launch in September.

The move could help the startup cut costs and focus on its business-facing and coding products ahead of a possible initial public offering expected later this year.

Why This Matters to Investors

OpenAI may be looking for ways to improve its financial metrics that would broaden its appeal to public investors ahead of its market debut.

OpenAI's decision to shutter Sora also reportedly ends the company's December deal with the Walt Disney Company (DIS), in which the entertainment giant agreed to invest $1 billion in the AI startup. The companies had agreed to a three-year deal that included licensing rights for hundreds of Disney, Marvel, and Star Wars characters for Sora and would see Disney feature Sora-generated AI videos on its Disney+ streaming service.

A Disney spokesperson told Investopedia, "we respect OpenAI’s decision to exit the video generation business and to shift its priorities elsewhere." OpenAI did not respond to a request for comment in time for publication.

In a memo to OpenAI employees, CEO Sam Altman said the Sora team will turn its attention to other AI applications like robotics going forward, and that OpenAI is focused on projects surrounding AI agents and the upcoming release of a new model code-named "Spud," according to Bloomberg.

Reports also emerged last week that OpenAI is looking to consolidate its offerings, including its ChatGPT, Codex coding tool, and web browser designed to challenge Google's search dominance, into a single desktop "superapp."

UPDATE—This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect additional information.

News of the day for March 25, 2026

Major stock indexes closed lower Tuesday after surging on Monday.
Credit: Angela Weiss / AFP / Getty Images

Stock futures are rising and oil prices are dropping this morning following reports that the U.S. sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East; Meta is targeting a market cap of $9 trillion in a new round of executive stock options; OpenAI said Tuesday it would shut down its Sora video generation app as the ChatGPT maker looks to cut costs ahead of a potential IPO later this year; and Jefferies reports earnings after markets close amid reports of potential takeover interest from a Japanese financial firm. Here's what you need to know today.

Stocks Gain on Renewed Optimism Over Iran Talks

Stock futures are pointing to a higher open Wednesday as a volatile week of trading continues while market participants track the latest developments in the Middle East. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the benchmark S&P 500 were recently up 0.8%, while those linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.9%. All three major indexes fell Tuesday, after surging on Monday, as investors grew less certain in President Trump's Monday comments that "productive talks" were ongoing with Iran to end the war, but those hopes look to be renewed Wednesday (more on that below). Crude oil futures were down about 5% this morning, while gold futures rose nearly 4% to $4,570 an ounce. Bitcoin was trading at $71,300, up from an overnight low of $69, 200. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which has been trading at its highest levels since last July in recent days, fell to 4.34% from 4.39% at yesterday's close.

Oil Sinks on Reports US Sent Iran Plan to End War

Oil prices are dropping this morning following reports that Pakistan had delivered to Iran a 15-point U.S. plan to end the war in the Middle East. The plan included commitments around Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistani officials said, but it remains unclear if Iranian officials have agreed to any elements of the plan. While the U.S. is reportedly looking to agree to a cease-fire, the talks also come as at least another 1,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division are expected to be sent to the Middle East soon, per The Associated Press. West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, were down 4.5% to $88.20 per barrel recently. Even with today's drop, oil prices are up about 30% since the Iran war started amid concerns about supply disruptions.

Meta Targets $9T Valuation With New Incentive Program For Executives

Meta Platforms (META) is targeting substantial growth with new stock options for its executives. In a number of SEC filings released Tuesday, Meta laid out stock options that could net executives millions of shares in the Facebook and Instagram parent over the next five years. The executives would only get the full value of the options if Meta's market capitalization hits $9 trillion by 2031, The Wall Street Journal reported. Reaching that mark would imply a sixfold increase in Meta's current market cap, which stood at $1.5 trillion at Tuesday's close. Meta shares were up roughly 1% ahead of the opening bell.

OpenAI Shutting Down Sora Video App to Cut Costs Ahead of Potential IPO

OpenAI is shutting down its AI video generation app, Sora, just months after launching the latest model in September. The company, confirming news reports, said it would share more details, including a timeline for the app shutting down, at a later date. The Wall Street Journal reported that the move is part of OpenAI's shift to focus on business-facing and coding products—areas where companies such as Anthropic are already offering stiff competition to OpenAI with its Claude Code service—as it cuts costs ahead of a potential initial public offering later this year. The Walt Disney Company (DIS) is reportedly no longer investing the $1 billion into OpenAI that it committed to invest in December, part of a deal that included licensing rights for hundreds of Disney, Marvel, and Star Wars characters for Sora and was expected to see Disney feature Sora-generated AI videos on its Disney+ streaming service.

Jefferies Earnings Due Amid Takeover Rumors

Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) is set to report earnings after the closing bell today, with the results coming as the investment bank is the subject of reports regarding potential acquisition talks by Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG). The Financial Times reported Tuesday that SMFG had told a team to prepare to act if Jefferies' stock continued to slide and presented an opportunity for a deal. That report was followed by others from Bloomberg and CNBC that said SMFG had "no immediate plan" to make an offer for Jefferies, and that Jefferies executives weren't interested in selling. For its fiscal first quarter, Jefferies is expected to report $1.99 billion in revenue and earnings of 89 cents per share, per Visible Alpha estimates. Through Tuesday's close, Jefferies shares had lost about 35% of their value since the start of the year. The stock was up about 2% in recent premarket trading.

Nvidia shares have lost about 5% in 2026 so far
Credit: David Paul Morris / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• After a weak start to the year, shares of Nvidia—along with Broadcom, AMD, and Marvell—are starting to look like deals, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank.
• The analysts said that based on their two-year forward price-to-earnings ratios, the four stocks currently trade at a significant discount to historical multiples.

Nvidia’s stock is looking like a bargain, according to Deutsche Bank. 

Analysts at the German bank said that after a weak start to the year, the AI chipmaker’s stock is trading at about 16 times its projected earnings for 2027. That multiple is some 45% below its historical median, said the analysts, suggesting an opportunity for investors to pick up the shares at a discount.

Deutsche Bank said that along with Nvidia, Broadcom (AVGO), AMD (AMD), and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are also trading at valuation multiples well below their historical norms, making them look "relatively cheap."

Why This Matters to Investors

Nvidia's stock has floundered this year despite booming demand for its chips, underscoring weak sentiment surrounding some previously high-flying corners of the AI trade.

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) were little changed around $175 Tuesday, leaving them down about 6% for the year so far despite strong results for the company. The shares soared close to 40% in 2025. 

Though Marvell's stock has climbed about 8% in 2026, its forward multiple—the same as Nvidia's—is about 27% below its long-term median, compared to 20% below for AMD. Broadcom's multiple, at 17 times projected earnings, is off its long-term median by 5%.

Not all semiconductor-related firms have taken the same hit this year, which the analysts called "puzzling dislocations in relative valuation across the sector."

They pointed to semiconductor equipment makers such KLAC (KLAC), ASML (ASML), and Applied Materials (AMAT) as "expensive" by the same measures. Those stocks have soared about 29%, 31%, and 45%, respectively, in 2026, and now trade at a premium to their counterparts based on the same measure, Deutsche Bank said.

The Social Security program is running out of funds.
Credit: Investopedia / Photo Composite by Elizabeth Guevara / Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• More Americans are retiring before they reach the age where they can claim their full Social Security benefits.
• However, the program likely can't be altered to accommodate that reality because of its budget shortfalls.
• One way experts have suggested bridging the budget gap is actually raising the full retirement age.

With Americans retiring earlier, some wonder what it would take for Social Security to better accommodate beneficiaries' needs.

The average retirement age in the U.S. for 2025 was 62, according to a survey conducted by the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Many aren't choosing to leave the workforce; in a Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies survey, those who retired earlier than planned cited health reasons or job-related factors like layoffs.

While Social Security benefits can be claimed at 62, a retiree's benefits will be permanently reduced unless they claim at or after their full retirement age, also called FRA. The FRA for 2026 is 66 years and 10 months. So, would it be possible to lower the FRA to meet more retirees where they are?

Why This Matters

Finding solutions for Social Security's funding will be essential in the coming years, as some beneficiaries live on fixed incomes and say they would not survive financially if their benefits were cut.

Gopi Shah Goda, director of the retirement security project at the Brookings Institution, and Emerson Sprick, director of retirement and Labor Policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center both said it was highly unlikely that the full retirement age could be lowered.

In fact, the opposite may be necessary, as the Social Security program is running out of money. By 2032, the main trust fund that helps finance Social Security retirement benefits is set to run out. After this date, benefit amounts will decrease by 24%, according to an estimate by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

In 1983, Congress tried to push Social Security's funding cliff back some by increasing the FRA from 65 to 67 in phases over 22 years. Some recent proposals to bridge Social Security's budget shortfall have included raising the FRA further.

Generally, in order to increase Social Security’s revenue enough to lower the FRA, there would need to be a significant increase in payroll taxes or a significant decrease in the benefits given out through the program. However, these changes would need to pass through Congress, which would be very unlikely, both experts said.

"None of these solutions are politically desirable. No one wants to be the one who is increasing taxes or reducing social security benefits,” said Goda. “The tax increase that you need just to make the program solvent is quite high.”

What Needs To Happen To Save Social Security?

Social Security is running out of money because it is in deficit—meaning it spends more than it receives in taxes. 

One of the main reasons for the deficit is that the U.S. life expectancy is increasing, while the fertility rate has fallen. That means retirees are receiving benefits for longer, but there are not enough young workers paying taxes to cover the costs.

“It just comes down to increasing the revenue into the program or reducing the benefits, or a combination of both," Goda said. "There are a lot of different ways to close the gap...but there's no like magic solutions. The money has to come from somewhere."

Experts and politicians have suggested solutions like raising the full retirement age, raising the payroll tax amounts, and capping or slowing annual cost-of-living adjustments.

The best approach would be a package deal, Sprick said, combining elements from each proposal to ensure the program saves money without severely impacting beneficiaries.

“[Social Security] provides really generous benefits for the highest earners, sometimes it's not adequate for the very lowest earners," Sprick said. "And so, Social Security provides a lot of dials to play with in terms of programmatic reform focused on solvency."

McDonald's LTOs may not performing as well as they once did, Placer.ai said.
Credit: Mike Kemp / In Pictures via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Diners may not be responding as positively as they once did when fast-food restaurants have limited-time offers, company executives said.
• Consumers may be growing more selective in their spending and looking for better value day-in and day-out, Placer.ai said.

American diners may have reached their limit on LTOs.

Restaurants have rolled out one limited-time offer after another in an effort to lure in consumers looking for variety or value. Lately, though, industry giants like McDonald's (MCD) have had less success with "LTOs," or items available for a limited period of time, and at times sold at lower price points. Some chains, including Wendy's (WEN) and Popeyes, plan to focus less on the promotions, and more on their main menus.

Restaurant visits grew relatively modestly during McDonald's recent LTOs, according to Placer.ai, which tracks foot traffic. Traffic grew nearly 6% year-over-year during the first week McDonald's sold its mint Shamrock Shake, but came in 0.5% below a year earlier the next week, Placer.ai said. Visits rebounded—coming in 2% above a year prior—when the Big Arch burger made its debut, but the response was muted compared to prior promotions, Placer.ai said.

Why This News Matters to Investors

Restaurants aren't the only companies that have been relying on LTOs. Packaged food manufacturers and other consumer goods companies have tried to gin up interest with products that are only temporarily available.

The word on the burger, which the company called the "most McDonald's McDonald's burger yet," was undoubtedly out: CEO Chris Kempczinski's video review of the Big Arch went viral, with viewers joking that Kempczinski seemed unfamiliar with, and potentially less than enthusiastic about, the sandwich. McDonald’s didn’t respond to Investopedia’s questions in time for publication. 

“These results may suggest that consumers are becoming increasingly selective in their spending—potentially making it more difficult for [quick-service restaurant] chains to rely on LTOs alone to drive meaningful traffic momentum without additional value-oriented offerings,” Placer.ai said.

Some fast-food executives agree.

Wendy’s determined in 2025 that “we swung the pendulum too far towards limited price promotions instead of everyday value,” Interim CEO Kenneth Cook said on a conference call last month, according to a transcript made available by AlphaSense.  

The chain cut back on specials after a barrage of promotions slowed service and confused customers over the summer, Cook said on a conference call in August. Early this year, Wendy's launched Biggie Deals, which Cook described as a “permanent value platform” with $4, $6 and $8 options.

Popeyes is also deprioritizing LTOs after recent releases, including pickle-flavored items and thin, battered chicken strips called Dippers, didn’t catch on, said Joshua Kobza, CEO of the chain’s parent company, Restaurant Brands International (QSR).

The items "gained a lot of customer interest, but sometimes don't drive the sustained sales growth that we'd like to see," Kobza said on a conference call in October, according to a transcript. "So, you're probably going to see us shift back a bit of that focus to some of our more core platforms." Wendy's and Popeyes didn't respond to requests for comment in time for publication.

The Big Spring Refinery is seen on March 19, 2026 as fuel prices rise during global supply disruptions.
Credit: Brandon Bell / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• As gas prices spike, the U.S. could try to push them back down by banning crude oil exports.
• Such a policy was tried before in the 1970s when the U.S. faced an oil embargo from OPEC, and the ban was only lifted in 2015.
• Experts say gas prices would probably not fall if exports were banned and could even increase in the long run.

The U.S. produces all the crude oil it needs to power its economy. Could we solve the current energy crisis simply by keeping it all for ourselves?

Skyrocketing oil and gasoline prices brought on by the Iran War have prompted talk of resurrecting America’s oil export ban in a bid to push prices down. Although it may seem logical, experts say the policy would be unlikely to lower pump prices.

An export ban would be an attempt to mitigate the harsh economic consequences of the attack on Iran. U.S. gasoline prices have risen by more than a dollar a gallon on average, and diesel fuel even more so. The price hikes are bound to ripple through the economy, stoking inflation and slowing down economic growth, the longer the war continues, according to economic forecasts.

The idea of an export ban makes a certain kind of sense: by restricting oil companies from selling their products overseas, they’d have no choice but to sell to the domestic market, reducing competition and keeping oil prices down.

Why This Matters

With an export ban unlikely to help with prices, the U.S. economy is in for a bout of higher inflation and slower growth unless the war ends soon.

After all, that’s exactly what the government did in 1975 in the wake of a 1973 oil embargo, which had sent prices soaring and caused widespread shortages, wreaking havoc on the economy. The export ban lasted 40 years and was only lifted by President Barack Obama in 2015.

The White House reportedly told oil executives last week that an export ban was off the table.

Why an Oil Export Ban Could Backfire

Cheaper oil would not necessarily lead to cheaper fuel, Jason Bordoff, director of the Center on Global Energy Policy, argues.

One of the major problems is that U.S. refineries are mainly set up to process heavy, sour crude oil–that is, oil that contains a lot of sulfur. By contrast, crude oil from the U.S. is "lighter and sweeter" with less sulfur and is better suited for refineries overseas, Bordoff wrote.

"Lower domestic crude prices would not translate into comparable reductions in gasoline or diesel prices, which are set in global markets," he wrote. "Instead, such restrictions would introduce inefficiencies that could ultimately raise costs."

In the long run, the oil ban would discourage domestic oil production, further driving up prices, Bordoff contends.

The idea of renewing the export ban came up in 2022 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy prices soaring. At the time, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas concluded that the ban would not reduce gas prices, citing the same refining issues Bordoff raised.

With an export ban unlikely to help, the government has few tools available to cut gas prices. Releases from the Strategic Oil Reserve can help, but only temporarily. The only hope for lower prices in the near future is a resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, analysts said.

"The Iranians’ strategy is still to choke traffic going through it, with their demands lofty and unlikely to be satisfied," Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a commentary. "That means global energy markets are still disrupted and liable to create both inflationary and downside growth risks. As a result, the U.S.'s priority remains reopening the strait, whether that be via the military or diplomacy. Until that’s achieved, the so-called war trades are likely to continue."

Even in a scenario where the war ends in six weeks, oil prices are likely to stay high for years to come, economists at Goldman Sachs said Monday. Oil will sell from $75 to $80 a barrel through 2027, they said, upwardly revising earlier forecasts. Those prices, which were below $70 before the war, will be higher if the conflict continues beyond the projected six weeks.

Tuesday's decline puts Dollar General shares down around 10% since the start of 2026.
Credit: Adam Gray / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Dollar General unveiled a succession plan, with Jerry “JJ” Fleeman set to take over from CEO Todd Vasos at the start of 2027.
• Fleeman has spent his entire career at international grocery conglomerate Ahold Delhaize, which owns U.S. chains such as Food Lion and Giant.

Dollar General is the latest retailer to announce a new CEO.

Shares of the discount retailer fell more than 5% after Dollar General (DG) on Tuesday announced a succession plan in its top seat: Jerry “JJ” Fleeman will replace Todd Vasos at the start of 2027, the company said. Vasos first served as CEO from 2015 through 2022, returning to lead the company in 2023 amid lackluster financial performance and a stock slump.

Several other retailers, from Walmart (WMT) to Target (TGT) and Kroger (KR), have also announced CEO transitions in recent months. Fleeman is leaving one himself: His current post is CEO of the U.S. division of Ahold Delhaize, an international grocery conglomerate that operates chains including Food Lion and Stop & Shop. In its own release, Ahold Delhaize said Fleeman will depart at the end of June.

Why This Matters to Investors

Dollar General's Tuesday decline suggests investors could be concerned about Vasos leaving the company after the retailer struggled following his 2022 departure, which was reversed a year later.

Fleeman has "a proven CEO track record of establishing a clear strategic vision and driving measurable results" in his 36-year career, which has been spent entirely with Ahold Delhaize, said Dollar General board chair David Rowland.

Fleeman will take over Dollar General in the midst of an economy that has driven a growing number of middle and high-income households to discount retailers. Inflation that could remain high if the Iran war continues to drive up fuel costs could soon start to impact Dollar General's own results.

Earlier this month, Dollar General shares slumped after the company projected 2.2% to 2.7% sales growth in fiscal 2026, down from 3% growth last year, citing the "potential for continued uncertainty, particularly in consumer behavior" as low-income consumers face high gas prices and cuts to federal aid programs.

With Tuesday's move, Dollar General shares are down about 10% since the start of the year, but are still up more than 40% in the last 12 months.

Oracle stock has slumped more than 50% from its September highs
Credit: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Bank of America analysts restarted coverage of Oracle with a "buy" rating Tuesday, expecting the stock to rebound from its recent slump.
• The analysts suggested lowered expectations for Oracle against a backdrop of strong AI demand could make this a good time to snap up shares at a discount.

Oracle's stock just won a fresh vote of confidence on Wall Street, and it could really use it.

Bank of America analysts restarted coverage of Oracle (ORCL) with a "buy" rating and $200 price target on Tuesday, suggesting lowered expectations for Oracle against a backdrop of strong AI demand could make this a good time to snap up shares at a discount.

Oracle shares were down about 4% recently amid a broader market decline. The stock has lost more than 50% from its September highs despite solid quarterly results, amid worries about its reliance on a few large customers and its debt load as the cloud computing giant finances a massive data center buildout.

Why This Matters to Investors

Bank of America's support comes after a tough stretch for Oracle's stock, which has been harder hit than many other corners of the AI trade in recent months.

Bank of America said it now sees those risks as largely priced in, while demand for AI infrastructure continues to grow, leaving the stock primed for a rebound.

Still, the analysts said the company will need to "demonstrate it can deliver capacity, convert long-dated contracts into revenues, and manage a capital-intensive buildout" in order to address investors' concerns.

Bank of America's rating and target are largely in line with other analysts on the Street. Ten of the 11 analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha—including Bank of America—have recommended buying the stock, compared to one "sell" rating. Their mean target around $236 would suggest nearly 60% upside from the stock's levels Tuesday.

The S&P 500 is down about 6% from its all-time high in late January.
Credit: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Experts warned against making rash investment decisions after stocks surged and oil prices plummeted yesterday amid optimism that diplomacy may soon bring an end to the war in Iran.
• Several Wall Street insiders said stocks may need to pull back further before the investors who have derisked their portfolios feel comfortable returning to the market in force.

Wall Street is no stranger to uncertainty and volatility. But the three-week-old war in Iran is testing the nerve of even the most experienced investors.

Stock trading has been choppy since the war began late last month. The S&P 500 entered this week down more than 5% in March, then surged on Monday after President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran engaged in “productive conversations” over the weekend, stoking hopes for a resolution to the conflict that’s caused oil prices to skyrocket. Iranian officials denied taking part in negotiations, and Tuesday's action was more restrained.

Experts on Tuesday warned against putting too much stock in yesterday's rebound, with Alli McCartney, managing director of wealth management at UBS, suggesting that it "could be a false positive."

Why This Is Important

The stock market has powered through several bouts of extreme volatility and uncertainty over the past year, repeatedly rewarding investors who looked through chaos and bought the dip. The war in Iran has so far proved more vexing for investors, reluctant to take on risk without clarity on the war's timeline.

“We’re in this market where gold is down, bonds are down, stocks are down—that is not the time to react and trade into things,” McCartney told CNBC on Tuesday. “This is really the time to be very disciplined and very discreet."

Several strategists say the situation on Wall Street could get worse before it gets better. Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Investments, told CNBC Tuesday that while investors have been hedging amid the conflict, they hadn’t given into the urge to indiscriminately sell. McCartney said many institutional investors have “derisked" their portfolios and are, for now, "staying that way."

“We’re not necessarily seeing full oversold conditions where people would then be comfortable jumping back in,” said Mazza.

“I feel that the S&P needs at least a correction,” said Mark Matthews, managing director at Julius Baer, was eyeing the possibility of a correction for the S&P 500, generally considered a drop of 10% from a recent high. As of Tuesday, the benchmark index was nearly 6% off its late-January record, putting it more than halfway there. (Follow our live markets coverage here.)

Matthews’ bearish bent is partly due to the concentration of tech stocks in the S&P 500. Eight of the capitalization-weighted index’s 10 largest components are tech companies, including the hyperscalers that are spending huge sums on artificial intelligence infrastructure. The intensity of those investments, Matthews said, will restrict the companies ability to buy back stock and increase dividends, one of the reasons he suggests investors look outside the U.S. 

“China is the equity market—and I would definitely include Hong Kong in that—that we see the best potential for,” said Matthews.

Roundhill's Mazza suggests investors focus on either the very short term or the long term. There will be "a lot of opportunities" for savvy traders to take advantage of sharp intraday moves, said Mazza, but those who aren't comfortable attempting to do so have other options. "You need to lengthen your time horizon, and actually think simply about the longer-term structural winners," he said.

Bank of America analysts on Monday made the case for small-caps, which they argued are poised to outperform large-caps amid heightened geopolitical volatility. And Citi analysts said investors concerned about resurgent oil prices could consider energy and agricultural commodities.

Some commodities experts say cheap oil seems unlikely in the near future.
Credit: VCG / VCG via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• An allocation to energy and agricultural commodities could be used to hedge oil-price risk, according to Citi analysts.
• Continued disruption to oil flows through the end of June could drive crude prices to $200 per barrel, according to Citi.

Don't count out the oil trade just yet.

Crude prices hit the skids to start this week as President Donald Trump paused military strikes against the Iranian energy complex. But Brent crude futures are bouncing after Monday's sell-off, up almost 4% so far today to a recent $103 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. benchmark, recently traded around $92. Energy stocks have rebounded too, up about 2% as indicated by the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE). (Read Investopedia's full coverage of today's trading here.)

Some commodities experts say cheap oil seems unlikely in the near future. Citi commodity research analysts led by Max Layton said Brent prices will likely go higher over the coming days to at least $120 per barrel, because a "wildcard"—the Strait of Hormuz's de facto closure—has become a "reality."

WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU

Gold hasn't so far been the hedge for geopolitical uncertainty in a way that many investors thought it was, but buying near-term energy and agriculture commodities futures could be a useful hedge against a sustained global oil crisis, according to Citi's commodity research team.

From a portfolio allocation perspective, the bank's team said, "it's not too late" to hedge risks to global commodity inflation, with a benchmark index for those assets only up a touch since the conflict in Iran began in late February.

This Middle East conflict, the longer it goes, could lead to a global supply shock in crude that rivals the 1970s crisis, according to Citi. For reference, oil prices then quadrupled, causing severe inflation. Solving the current issue will require either military or diplomatic action, which could happen by mid-to-late April, Layton and his team wrote in a report published Monday.

Citi's base case—on which they place a 30% probability—is Brent crude rising to at least $120 per barrel in the coming months, indicating upside of around 15% from recent prices. If the energy supply disruption continue through the end of June, prices could reach $200 per barrel, they said.

Their bear case for oil, which they believe has a 20% likelihood of occurring, would put oil prices back to around $65 or $70 by the end of the year. But that would appear improbable because, they said, it would require a speedy deal between Iran and the U.S. "via leadership change or leadership attitude change" and a reopening of the Strait.

Investors who don't yet have hedges in place to address the risk of global commodity inflation may want to consider them, according to Citi. The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is up about 10% since the beginning of the Iran conflict, and Citi believes energy and agricultural commodities can remain useful hedges against a "prolonged disruption" to flows from the Strait of Hormuz and other regional energy infrastructure.