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Off The Charts: The Visual Says It All
If inflation spikes in the wake of the Iran war, the Fed could cut its interest rates.The Iran war has turned the outlook for borrowing costs on its head.
For the first time in years, financial markets were pricing in a greater likelihood that the Fed's next move would be to raise its benchmark interest rate sometime in the next three months, rather than cut it, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's market probability tracker. There was a 25% chance of a rate hike versus a 20% of a cut on Tuesday, according to the tracker, which forecasts rate movements based on trading data from the CME group and the New York Fed.
A rate hike has gone from unthinkable to more likely than a cut, as the Iran war has stoked inflation fears.That's a sharp reversal from the eve of the Iran war, when a rate cut was priced at 40% and a hike was given a remote 5% chance. Previously, the Fed had been widely expected to cut its key interest rate to lower borrowing costs across all kinds of loans and boost the faltering job market.
But the Iran war has sent energy prices soaring, and could drag inflation along with it. That has raised the chances that the Fed will have to hike rates to quash inflation as it pursues its dual mandate from Congress to keep employment high and inflation under control.
Higher interest rates could slow the economy at a time when economic growth was already being held back by tariffs and higher prices.
More likely than either a hike or a cut, the Fed is expected to keep its key interest rate on hold to give policymakers a chance to see how the war affects the U.S. economy. The Fed's next decision is on Wednesday, and financial markets are overwhelmingly signaling an expectation of the rate staying flat.
The Fed had hiked rates from near-zero between 2022 and 2023 to suppress the post-pandemic spike in inflation. Since 2024, every rate movement has been a cut.
If you don't drive a big truck, you might not give diesel fuel prices a second look when you're filling up at the gas station. But as diesel soars past $5 a gallon, you'll end up paying for it just the same.
As of Tuesday, diesel averaged $5.04 a gallon, $1.39 more than before the war against Iran began, according to AAA. That's an even steeper increase than the 87-cent jump in regular gas to $3.79.
While most drivers don't fill up with diesel, price hikes for that fuel tend to push up prices for just about everything else. Diesel is used to move most goods you can buy at the store, and truckers and retailers are likely to pass along higher transportation costs to buyers.
For that reason, economists expect that the surge in diesel prices will drive inflation upward in the coming months. Annual inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index could jump as high as 4.4% in the coming months, up from 2.4% in February, Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, wrote in a commentary.
"The spike in diesel fuel prices will feed into higher transportation costs and could lift price pressures across the supply chain," she wrote in a commentary.
Higher fuel prices are a double-whammy for the economy, threatening to push up inflation and slow economic growth at the same time, a phenomenon known as "stagflation."
It's not just tractor-trailers that use diesel. Trains, buses, and construction vehicles run on diesel fuel, so expect the prices to affect mass transit systems and building costs. And since farmers use diesel-powered machines to plant and grow crops, and deliver them to market on diesel trucks, food prices are likely to rise too, as happened in 2022 when fuel prices surged because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. That fuel price spike drove up the price of potatoes 8.8% and apples up 2.1%, apart from other factors, a 2024 study by researchers at the Department of Agriculture found.
Diesel prices are rising faster than gasoline prices, partly because diesel was scarcer before the war, wrote Tom Kloza, chief energy advisor at Gulf Oil, in an email.
"The world was well supplied with gasoline on Feb. 28, but it was NOT well-supplied on these middle distillates like diesel, gasoil, marine fuel, and jet fuel," he wrote.
Diesel prices have risen sharply since the war in Iran disrupted traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, cutting off about 20% of the world's oil supply.
Another reason is that diesel fuel usually goes up faster than gasoline whenever oil prices rise. The Energy Information Administration says this is partly due to increased demand for diesel from China, India, and Europe, and partly because of the switch to less-polluting diesel fuel that costs more to produce. Modern diesel fuel is highly refined to remove sulfur, more so than decades ago, when diesel was usually cheaper by the gallon than gasoline, Kloza said.
"This is not your father's diesel that sometimes required the truck continue running so as to not throttle off on cold days," Kloza wrote. "It has many times less sulfur than what was routinely burned by most countries in the 20th century."
All in all, the surge in diesel prices could be among the most important economic impacts from the Iran war, worsening the longer the conflict continues.
"I would expect that diesel will be the product that reflects worldwide supply and worries as we move through this difficult period," Kloza wrote.
AI is back in the Wall Street spotlight.
What put it there at a time when there's plenty of other topics—from war in Iran to a Fed meeting in Washington—clamoring for investor attention? It could only be Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang, who yesterday forecast no end in sight to the data center boom.
Huang at an event Monday projected that sales of Nvidia’s Vera Rubin and Blackwell systems would exceed $1 trillion over the next two years; the company had previously forecast $500 billion in sales across 2025 and 2026. Demand for Nvidia’s hardware and software, Huang said, is “off the charts."
“This was a much needed confidence boost for tech investors navigating a very tricky tape,” wrote Wedbush analyst and Nvidia bull Dan Ives Monday evening. Huang's outlook, Ives wrote, indicates that “the AI Revolution is accelerating, not decelerating, despite the market noise."
The AI infrastructure buildout has lately been overshadowed for many investors by economic uncertainty stemming from the war in Iran. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's keynote speech at the chipmaker's annual product launch event on Monday revived some of Wall Street's AI enthusiasm, but couldn't spark the kind of broad and sharp AI rally seen in recent years.
The once-roaring AI trade has been dogged by two concerns, seemingly contradictory. What if AI is overhyped, and the tech giants spending hundreds of billions annually on infrastructure can’t adequately monetize their investments? And what if we’re underestimating AI and the technology is on the verge of decimating entire industries?
The trade’s momentum has been further dented this month by Wall Street’s fixation on the conflict in the Middle East, now in its third week. Iran’s near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global oil supply and sent fuel prices soaring. Investors worry the war will accelerate inflation and drag on global economies, derailing what was supposed to be a goldilocks year of strong growth, slowing inflation, and interest rate cuts.
Tech analysts were encouraged by Huang’s bullish comments Monday, with many projecting his $1 trillion revenue forecast bodes well for AI infrastructure suppliers. “For every $1 spent on [a Nvidia] chip we estimate an $8 to $10 multiplier rippling across the ecosystem spanning Hyperscalers, software, data center buildouts, cybersecurity, and power/energy,” wrote Ives.
Bank of America analysts say Nvidia’s blowout forecast implies a demand for more computing power, which they expect to benefit the entire AI supply chain, spanning servers, storage, optics/connectors, and networking, with beneficiaries including server makers Dell (DELL), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), and Hewlett Packard Enterprise; data storage provider Sandisk (SNDK); and fiber optics suppliers Corning (GLW) and Amphenol (APH).
Despite Nvidia's bullish signals, AI stocks were mixed on Tuesday. Shares of Nvidia and competitor Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed marginally lower, while Broadcom (AVGO) slipped about 1%. Dell, Corning, and Amphenol all fell more than 1%.
Shares of Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) rose after Nvidia said it was expanding its autonomous vehicle partnerships with the ride-hailing companies. Memory firms Western Digital (WDC), Seagate Technology (STX), and Micron (MU) all jumped more than 4%. Chip manufacturing equipment suppliers like Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX) also rose.
Update—Tuesday, March 17: This story has been updated with stock performance data as of the market close.
Elon Musk's latest undertaking as he works to transform his car company into an AI powerhouse: Build a chip factory.
The Tesla (TSLA) chief on Saturday said on social media that the "Terafab Project launches in 7 days," referencing an endeavor he alluded to earlier this year during a conference call. He said in January that the company would need to address the likelihood of a possible bottleneck in AI compute—when computational demands exceed the capacity of the hardware—in the next three to four years and also that a U.S.-based plant could be a hedge against "geopolitical risk."
In-house semiconductor fabrication capabilities would tie directly into Musk's other aims—operational moonshots that would unlock his trillion-dollar pay package—including selling more electric vehicles, adding more self-driving subscriptions, and developing robotaxis and the company's AI-powered humanoid robots. The CEO has a history of taking on "difficult things," Morgan Stanley analysts said this week, though building a chip plant "seems like a Herculean task."
Tesla's latest undertaking, building a chip plant, would require a big investment and take time. But it might also be necessary to realize some of Elon Musk's aims as he seeks to transform the tech giant.
Morgan Stanley referenced Micron's (MU) Boise, Idaho, plant for context, saying Tesla's capital investment to construct and outfit its own facility could mean a capital investment of $35 billion to $45 billion, which eclipses the company's projected capital 2026 expenditures of $20 billion.
And it would take years before such a plant could start producing chips, they said. "Even under an aggressive scenario involving a retrofit of an existing facility, initial chip output would likely not occur until mid-2028 at the earliest," the firm's analysts, including Andrew Percoco, wrote Tuesday.
As expensive and time-consuming as the effort might be, the Terafab Project may be necessary to make Musk's vision of a robot army possible. In the event Tesla hits its long-term target of producing 100 million robots a year, Morgan Stanley estimates they would require more than 200 million chips, over 50 times what the company uses in its car and robotaxis today.
The firm maintained a neutral equal-weight rating on the stock. Its price target, $415, implies upside of about 5% from recent prices and is less than $10 below Visible Alpha's analyst average.
Tesla shares have declined about 14% since Tesla's shareholders approved Musk's giant compensation package, underperforming the majority of the so-called Magnificent Seven with the exception of Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) since that November meeting. The stock has gained nearly 70%, however, over the past 12 months.
AI chip leader Nvidia is getting more involved in the self-driving car race. That's lifting shares of its partners' stocks.
Uber (UBER) shares surged over 5% and Lyft (LYFT) climbed about 3% in recent trading, after Nvidia announced expanded partnerships with the firms and others at its GPU Technology Conference keynote Monday, as part of its growing push into the market for self-driving cars.
Nvidia and Uber said they plan to launch autonomous vehicles running on Nvidia software in Los Angeles and San Francisco in the first half of 2027, and another few dozen cities through 2028. Nvidia also announced new and expanded partnerships with Hyundai, BYD, Geely, Isuzu, and Nissan, which rose on their home exchanges as well.
Nvidia's latest partnerships in the autonomous vehicles space could underscore the company's growing lines of business and influence across industries.
Earlier this year, Nvidia announced that its autonomous driving software would power a Mercedes Benz car later this year. The chipmaker's latest moves could help Nvidia's case as a likely beneficiary of the self-driving car industry's expected growth.
Nvidia shares were down about 0.4% in recent trading, after gaining 1.6% Monday as CEO Jensen Huang hosted the company's GTC keynote.
News of the day for March 17, 2026
Major indexes posted big gains on Monday following three straight weeks of losses.Stock futures are little changed this morning after major indexes posted big gains to start the week; crude oil prices are rising once again as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed; Israel said it has killed a top Iranian security official and launched operations in Lebanon as the Iran war expands; Federal Reserve officials will begin their two-day policy meeting amid expectations they'll hold interest rates steady; and Nvidia opened its annual GTC event Monday with a speech from CEO Jensen Huang that laid out Nvidia's efforts beyond AI chips. Here's what you need to know today.
Stock Futures Hold Steady After Monday's Big GainsStock futures are near unchanged on Tuesday while oil prices are rising once again. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were fractionally higher in recent trading, while Nasdaq futures ticked lower. Crude oil futures, meanwhile, rose more than 2%, though were off earlier highs (more on that below). The major indexes, which had lost ground for the three previous weeks coming into this week, posted gains on Monday as oil prices retreated from recent highs fueled by concerns about the impact of the Iran war. Gold futures ticked higher to $5,010 an ounce this morning, while bitcoin was little changed at around $74,100. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects rates on a range of consumer loans, was down slightly ay 4.21%, losing ground for the second straight day after hitting their highest level in more than a month last Friday.
Oil Climbs as Strait of Hormuz Remains BlockedCrude oil futures are back on the rise Tuesday after recording a rare day of declines for the commodity since the onset of the Iran war. West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, were up 2.3% at $95.70 per barrel in recent trading. Oil prices are up more than 40% since the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran on Feb. 28. On Monday, several countries the U.S. has approached about forming a coalition of Navy ships to help escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz said they had declined to participate. Germany, Japan, and Australia have each either declined or indicated they would be unlikely to help with the plan, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday.
Israel Says Iranian Security Official Was KilledIsrael said early Tuesday that it had confirmed the death of Iranian security chief Ali Larijani as a result of recent strikes from the U.S. and Israel in Tehran. Among other developments related to the war, Iran attacked a number of locations in Iraq, including strikes near the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, and President Trump said a trip to China in early April would likely be delayed if the war is still going on. The Israeli military has also launched operations in the neighboring country of Lebanon to attack the Iran-backed military group known as Hezbollah.
Fed Set to Begin Two-Day Meeting on RatesThe Federal Reserve's policy committee is set to begin two days of deliberations, ahead of an announcement Wednesday on interest rates and a highly anticipated press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed is widely expected to hold its key rate steady for the second straight meeting, after three consecutive cuts at the end of 2025. Investors will be eager to hear what Powell has to say about the outlook for the U.S. economy as the recent surge in oil prices threatens to spark inflation and weigh on economic activity broadly. Market expectations for the Fed to cut rates at some point this year have fallen significantly since the Iran war began.
Nvidia CEO Unveils Huge AI Chip Revenue TargetNvidia's (NVDA) annual GPU Technology Conference started Monday, with CEO Jensen Huang delivering a keynote speech in which he announced massive revenue growth expectations and talked about opportunities beyond making chips used in data centers. Huang said Nvidia's latest chips, Vera Rubin and Blackwell, could top $1 trillion in orders through the end of next year, and he showcased a range of software efforts to grow Nvidia's AI capabilities. Nvidia is also looking to expand its reach in the self-driving vehicle space, announcing new and expanded partnerships with automakers including Hyundai, Kia and BYD, and with Uber Technologies (UBER), to use Nvidia's software. Earlier this year, Huang announced that Nvidia's autonomous driving software would power a Mercedes Benz car later this year. Nvidia shares, which have been sluggish so far in 2026 but are up more than 50% over the past 12 months, were little changed before the opening bell.
The Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates unchanged this week, but analysts will watch for signs that the Iran war will push the Fed to the sidelines for months to come.
It’s a scenario that markets increasingly expect, with the majority of traders still believing the Fed will cut rates, but not until October or December. Some even anticipate the war will cause the Fed to leave its rate untouched all year.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, during his press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, may not give markets firm guidance. Instead, analysts expect him to adopt a wait-and-see tone, as the Fed monitors whether oil market disruptions will be temporary or longer-lasting.
Oil shocks from geopolitical conflicts can reignite inflation and delay interest rate cuts. That directly affects borrowing costs, markets, and economic growth for consumers and investors.
If it’s the latter, that could lead to the Fed’s worst-case scenario—stagflation, when prices are spiraling upward while the economy stagnates. That could force the Fed to try to arrest inflation by keeping interest rates high, even if that pushes up unemployment.
“The Fed was going to move more cautiously anyway this year,” wrote Michael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO. “And now, against the background of mounting stagflation risk and economic policy uncertainty, the caution flag is waving more vigorously.”
Powell’s job is “not getting any easier” as he prepares to hand over the reins, wrote Tom Porcelli, chief economist at Wells Fargo.
The Iran war uncertainty could weaken a job market that is “lukewarm and still muddling along,” he wrote. But it could also rekindle inflation, he wrote, which hasn’t yet returned to the Fed’s 2% target after rising sharply during the pandemic.
“Higher inflation and a weaker labor market is the FOMC's worst nightmare as it puts the dual mandate in tension,” Porcelli wrote.
Rate Cuts Pushed OutThe Fed doesn’t know how long the conflict will last, but reporters are sure to ask Powell how the central bank may respond to different scenarios.
In the last shock to energy markets, Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Fed raised rates aggressively in a sharp pivot from pandemic-era rates of effectively 0%.
There is little chance of rate hikes this year, economists say. But it’s a scenario that investors are toying with, something that was “almost unthinkable two weeks ago,” wrote Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.
Instead, the question is whether the Fed will turn hawkish by keeping rates at 3.5% to 3.75% all year, rather than cutting them as many expected before the war.
Traders see a 68% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates this year, down from 97% a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which uses futures markets pricing to gauge Fed policy views. Traders now see a rate cut in October or December as more likely, rather than earlier in the year.
Forecast HintsSome hints may come in Fed officials’ quarterly forecasts. Analysts expect the median Fed official to still pencil in one cut for 2026, the same as December.
A shift toward zero cuts would be a hawkish surprise, however.
“The risk to markets will be if more FOMC members pencil out cuts altogether,” wrote Oscar Munoz, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities.
Munoz and other analysts see that as unlikely, since the fallout of the war remains unclear and recent data give Fed officials “little reason to change their views from December.”
In any case, analysts see the Fed’s forecasts even more penciled in than usual.
“There is huge uncertainty over how long and how intense the conflict and the disruption will be, so the Fed will have little conviction in their forecasts,” wrote James Knightley, chief international economist at the Dutch bank ING.
Hawks Versus DovesThe Fed’s decision to keep rates flat is unlikely to be unanimous, with analysts expecting at least two votes for rate cuts.
Those votes are likely to come from President Donald Trump’s appointees to the Fed, who’ve generally been more aligned with his view that rates should be lower.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran has dissented at every Fed meeting since joining in September—and is once again likely to favor cutting rates.
Analysts expect Fed Governor Chris Waller, who also voted for cutting rates in January, to dissent again. Waller has argued jobs growth has been “very weak,” a sign that the Fed’s policies are too tight.
The hawks at the Fed, who’ve argued against rate cuts this year, are likely to come out ahead. But one question to watch is whether they’ll continue to convince Fed officials on the fence the rest of the year, including when Warsh takes over for Powell.
“With inflation entering its sixth year and counting above 2%, there are signs some of the Committee's hawks are digging in amid yet another inflationary shock,” Wells Fargo’s Porcelli wrote.
A wave of layoffs at tech companies suggests AI is hurting the job market not so much by replacing human work, but by diverting funding that businesses might otherwise spend on workers.
Software company Atlassian (TEAM) said last week it was cutting its workforce by 10% as it ramped up its investments in AI software. In February, Financial technology company Block (XYZ) said it was cutting 40% of its workforce as it pivoted to AI. And Meta(META) is reportedly considering cutting 20% of its workforce, seeking to save money on payroll while spending up to $135 billion this year on AI and data centers.
If the companies themselves are to be believed, AI's impact on the job market is playing out a bit differently than it has typically been imagined in doomsday scenarios: instead of a robot taking workers' jobs, bosses are taking employees' paychecks and spending them on AI projects instead.
The trend suggests the scenario of AI taking workers' jobs is a bit off the mark, and the technology's impact on the labor force might mainly stem from its diversion of resources away from labor.
"Artificial intelligence is NOT replacing jobs, but job cuts ARE funding AI expenditures," Brad Conger, Chief Investment Officer at Hirtle Callaghan, wrote in a commentary.
A survey by job application assistance site ResumeBuilder last week indicated this was the case. Among 866 business leaders who responded to an online survey, 26% said they were laying off workers and 54% said they were cutting compensation to fund AI investments.
"Everybody's running to keep their company cutting edge, and everybody thinks AI is going to increase productivity and keep them ahead of their competitors," said Stacie Haller, chief career advisor at the company. "And it costs a lot of money to fund AI. So where are they going for it? They're going to their employees."
The strategy has a financial impact on employees who are put out of work or receive smaller raises, and it might have some long-term downsides for companies as well, Haller said. High-performing workers dissatisfied with small raises are likely to look for work elsewhere, and even less in-demand employees could search for greener pastures when the job market improves.
"People have long memories," Haller said. "The tide will turn, and then they will have to attract talent. And people will remember that (the company) did this, and it might not be their employer of choice."
'We're Going to Accelerate Everybody,’ Huang Said at the Company's GTC Event
Nvidia's Vera Rubin and its predecessor Blackwell could drive $1 trillion in revenues through 2027, CEO Jensen Huang said Monday.Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang wants you to know the chipmaker at the heart of the AI boom is far more than just a semiconductor company, and that its growth story is only getting started.
“We’re going to accelerate everybody,” Huang said at the company's GPU Technology Conference keynote Monday, where he unveiled the company's latest chips, software, and more.
At the event, Huang highlighted Nvidia's (NVDA) highly anticipated, next-generation Vera Rubin platform, which he called a "revolutionary" product. Together, Vera Rubin and its predecessor Blackwell could drive $1 trillion in revenues through 2027, Huang said. The chipmaker had previously projected $500 billion of combined revenue for Blackwell and Rubin through the end of 2026.
The CEO unveiled the company's Feynman platform slated for 2028 as well. Huang said Feynman is set to include a new and even more powerful chip called "Rosa," named after British scientist Rosalind Franklin, perhaps best known for her contributions to the discovery of the structure of DNA.
Huang also said Nvidia is rolling out new and updated coding libraries that Huang called the “crown jewels” of the company, and unveiled an open agent framework called NemoClaw, that Huang said would expand the company's reach and influence well beyond its hardware.
Nvidia's stock has had weak start to the year, amid some uncertainty about the trajectory of AI, and the sustainability of its growth. At Monday's event, Huang sought to convince investors of the AI industry's potential for growth and Nvidia's place in it.
The CEO told attendees at the event that demand for Nvidia's latest offerings is “off the charts,” and that every major player in the space is building on its technology.
"We're the only platform in the world today that runs every single domain of AI across every single one of these AI models," Huang said, and gave shoutouts to a number of the company's major partners and customers, including Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google, Amazon (AMZN), Palantir (PLTR), Dell (DELL), IBM (IBM), Oracle (ORCL), CoreWeave (CRWV), and others.
“We are now a computing platform that runs all of AI," Huang said.
Moor Insights & Strategy CEO Patrick Moorhead, who wrote ahead of the event that Huang would likely make the case for the company’s growing reach, told CNBC in a televised interview Monday that he believes Huang “delivered” with his keynote performance.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Nvidia bull, said Huang “raised the bar” with the company’s updated revenue forecast for its latest chips, “reinforcing that Nvidia sits alone at the top of the AI mountain.”
Shares of Nvidia rose close to 2% Monday as Huang gave his keynote address. The stock has lingered in negative territory for the year amid broader worries about the AI trade. Still, they've added more than half their value in the last 12 months.
UPDATE: This article has been updated since it was first published to include additional information.
Episode 286 of the Express Podcast with Caleb Silver (March 16, 2026)
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What really drove Bitcoin prices down 50% in yet another one of its spectacular crashes? Ric Edelman explains what caused the original cryptocurrency’s latest plunge, and what might breathe new life into it.
Plus, stock markets around the world are sinking in a sea of uncertainty as we enter the third week of the Mideast War as oil prices hover around $100 per barrel and economic growth is squeezed in every region of the globe.
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