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Target's new CEO wants to win back customers with better deals.
Target (TGT) said this week that it's slashing prices on more than 3,000 items as part of the retailer's efforts to revitalize sales under the leadership of Michael Fiddelke, who took the helm of the company last month.
Target said most of the cuts will be between 5% to 20% across a wide range of apparel and home items. The move could help Target appeal to value-hungry consumers, at a time when discount rivals such as Walmart (WMT) have gained market share.
Target has seen sales slide as American consumers across the income spectrum have turned to Walmart and other discount retailers. Target's move to lower prices could underscore its renewed focus on value.
When Fiddelke's appointment was announced last year, analysts said some investors were disappointed by the pick amid concerns that a company veteran could hold Target back from making a significant change in direction.
However, Fiddelke appeared to sooth some of those concerns during last week's earnings call, when he told investors he plans to make a number of changes to “get Target back to growth,” including improving the retailer's product lineup and renovating stores to better draw in shoppers.
UBS analysts said Fiddelke showed a "high level of energy and confidence" to turn the business around, and applauded Target's "refresh of its strategy." Shares of the company have surged in the wake of the event.
Target shares were up about 2% in recent trading, leaving the stock up some 20% since the start of the year.
Investors are increasingly worried that, despite talk of "unprecedented" times, we have been here before—and the first go didn't turn out well.
Case in point: a take from Bank of America raising parallels between recent action in oil prices and concerns about the health of the financial system and the Great Recession of nearly two decades ago.
“Asset performance in 2026 is more ominously close to price action seen from mid’07 to mid’08,” wrote the bank's strategist Michael Hartnett in a recent note to clients obtained by Bloomberg. He highlights that oil prices doubled between July 2007 and August 2008—right as the effects of subprime mortgage defaults rippled through the financial system, ultimately leading to the Great Recession.
Today, investors are worried that a similar pattern is playing out. They fear a sustained spike in oil prices stemming from the war in Iran will aggravate inflation and slow economic growth while stress in private credit markets spills over into the banking system.
The U.S. economy has been resilient in recent years, weathering an oil price shock following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, decades-high inflation, and the most aggressive rate hiking cycle in a generation. The recent rise in oil prices comes amid heightened uncertainty about inflation, trade policy, and the impact AI could have on a wobbly labor market.
Private credit is the elder concern. Two bankruptcies late last year raised questions about the industry’s underwriting standards. Fear that AI will disrupt the software industry, a favorite target of private capital, has simultaneously pressured asset prices. In recent weeks, a stampede of investors racing for the exits has forced private credit funds to restrict redemptions, setting off alarm bells for some market watchers.
Hartnett isn’t alone in drawing parallels between the decisions that led to today's credit stress and the mortgage crisis, which led to America’s worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Lloyd Blankfein, who led Goldman Sachs through 2008, and JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon, who last month expressed worries about risky bank loans, have expressed similar concerns in recent weeks.
Oil prices have spiked in the past two weeks amid a near-total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil flowed before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran late last month. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, is up nearly 30% since the war began, and more than 60% since the start of the year. Some experts have warned that another 40% increase in oil prices could be enough to tip the U.S. economy into recession.
Gas prices have followed oil higher. The average national gas price rose for a 12th consecutive day on Friday. At $3.63 a gallon, gas is now 22% more expensive than the day the war began. Some market watchers are eyeing the point at which gas prices restrict demand.
Rising oil and gas prices have revived concerns about stagflation, the combination of accelerating inflation and slowing economic growth. Those circumstances put policymakers in a bind: Should they cut interest rates to support growth at the risk of fueling inflation, or raise rates to control inflation but further weigh on growth?
Investors are already scaling back their rate-cut expectations. The consensus for months has been that the Federal Reserve would cut rates twice this year; as of Friday, the majority of traders are betting on one cut at most, according to federal funds futures trading data.
Ulta Beauty shares were off to a strong start this year, until this week.
Shares of Ulta (ULTA) were down nearly 11% around $557 in recent trading, a day after the beauty retailer's quarterly profits and outlook disappointed. It was the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 Friday, erasing its year-to-date gains.
Ulta reported earnings per share of $8.01 for the fourth quarter, 2 cents shy of analyst estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. Its revenue of $3.9 billion topped expectations.
Looking ahead, Ulta forecast comparable store sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5% and earnings per share of $28.05 and $28.55 for 2026. Both missed analysts' consensus projections.
Ulta's stock has rallied in recent months amid resilient spending on beauty and self-care products. However, Friday's sharp move lower suggests its weaker-than-expected outlook rattled investor confidence.
Analysts at Oppenheimer trimmed their price target to $650 from $750 on Ulta's soft guidance. They warned economic and geopolitical uncertainty could also hold back Ulta's sales more than previously anticipated.
JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley analysts also trimmed their price targets to $750 and $700, respectively. Still, both suggest gains for the stock, amid expectations of longer-term growth in the beauty category and Ulta's market share.
Friday's drop dragged Ulta shares, which reached a fresh record high last month, into negative territory for the year. Still, they're up more than 50% from the same time a year ago.
Job openings bounced back in January, a sign that the job market was beginning to stabilize after slowing dramatically last year.
U.S. employers had 6.9 million job openings in January, up from 6.6 million in December and the most since October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. That was a significant bounce-back after three months of declines, and was higher than the 6.7 million openings economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal expected.
The January uptick in job openings was a sign of resilience in the labor market. Slow job growth has been one of the economy's weak points in recent months, prompting concern among Federal Reserve officials who are considering lowering interest rates to boost the job market.
The report adds more detail to a picture of the labor market that appeared to be on the rebound in January, based on a payroll report released by the bureau last month. The figures had generated a short-lived sense of optimism about the job market, which faded after data from February showed the economy losing jobs and the unemployment rate rising.
Economists are watching jobs data for indications that the hiring market is pulling out of the slump it entered in 2025, which was the worst year for hiring outside a recession in decades. The uptick of job openings in January may not be enough on its own to dispel the impression that the market is in a low-hiring, low-firing limbo.
"The January JOLTS report contained some improvements, but they were too modest to change the narrative around a frozen labor market with little hiring and firing activity," Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary.
Only 1.6 million people were laid off in January, down from 1.7 million in December and close to historic lows. Fewer people voluntarily left their positions, too, with quits falling to 3.1 million from 3.2 million in December. Hires remained unchanged at 5.3 million, suggesting the job market stayed in its recent holding pattern, with workers finding few opportunities to change jobs for higher pay.
Economists say tariff-related uncertainty and new immigration restrictions have dragged down hiring over the last year.
Bitcoin appear to be doing what other haven assets haven't lately.
The cryptocurrency has risen about 10% to above $72,000, since the initial strikes on Iran, outpacing the U.S. dollar and gold as well as major broad market indexes. That performance might not impress those who recall when its price could move that much in a day, but the moves nevertheless—in the short term, anyway—have it looking like a decent shelter as war in the Middle East has driven oil prices higher and led to wild swings in stocks.
Bitcoin hasn't always proven to be an effective hedge. Before the recently onset of what some called crypto winter, it was behaving more like a risk asset that tends to track technology stocks. Many market experts still poo-poo the digital asset's use as a portfolio hedge as effective as gold, but investors appear to be wading back into crypto in recent days amid increased uncertainty about the path forward for war.
While bitcoin hasn't always proven to be a safe haven asset in times of geopolitical crises, in some instances, it has shown stability. That's been the case lately, too, since the start of the fighting in Iran.
When events are at their most unsettled, said Ray Dalio, founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, on a podcast last week, "gold does well and the other things don't—generally speaking." Dalio said investors should generally have between 5% and 15% in their portfolio in gold for diversification purposes.
Why isn't bitcoin a safe-haven asset? In a nutshell, Dalio said: "Central banks are not going to want to buy bitcoin." Gold, meanwhile, has taken a larger share of central bank reserves in the past year, driving what is called the "debasement trade."
Yet since the first strikes on Iran, net flows into bitcoin funds including iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBTC) and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) were positive, totaling over $1.1 billion according to data compiled by Farside Investors.
This isn't inconsistent with other recent activity. An academic study published last year showed that trading volumes in the cryptocurrency tend to rise during geopolitical crises; it also studied bitcoin's performance against safe-haven assets and both U.S. and international stocks, over the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and the Israel–Palestine conflict, finding that while bitcoin didn't consistently provide price protection it showed "remarkable stability."
"Bitcoin is neither a pure safe haven nor a speculative anomaly—it occupies a flexible, contingent position that may shift based on crisis characteristics, investor sentiment, and geographic context," the authors, including Antonis Ballis, and Ariston Karagiorgis wrote.
A preliminary estimate last month showing the economy growing at a solid clip in the fourth quarter may have been too optimistic
The U.S. economy grew at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Friday. That was half the bureau's preliminary estimate of 1.4% annual growth in February, and a significant slowdown from 4.4% annualized growth in Q3.
Forecasters had expected the revision to go the other way, anticipating an increase to 1.5% from the previous estimate, according to a survey of economists at Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
Although GDP figures were dragged down by the government shutdown, the economy is closer to "stagflation," with high inflation and slow growth, than previously believed.
The slowdown partly reflects the record-long government shutdown in October and November, which significantly reduced government spending.
The second estimate is lower because the economy was weaker than previously thought across the board, with downward revisions to exports, consumer spending, government spending, and investment, the BEA said.
The BEA will release its third and final estimate of fourth-quarter GDP in April.
Inflation was hovering in a stubbornly high pattern, but not surging, before the Iran war sent energy prices spiraling.
Consumer prices as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures rose 2.8% over 12 months in January, down from a 2.9% annual increase in December, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Friday. That was less than the 2.9% increase forecasters had expected, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
On the other hand, the core PCE price index, which excludes the volatile prices for food and energy, rose 3.1% over the year, up from a 3% annual increase in December. That was a fresh high since early 2024 and matched forecaster expectations.
Inflation earlier in the year was not spiraling out of control, but was still high enough to discourage the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates.
The change in core PCE prices is especially notable because it is the benchmark the Federal Reserve uses to judge whether inflation is at its target of a 2% annual rate—a level not seen since the pandemic caused prices to spike in 2021.
"The Fed’s preferred inflation metric shows the economy is still battling inflation at the start of the new year," Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, wrote in a commentary.
The report is less informative than usual about the inflation outlook because it doesn't reflect the significant price increases caused by the Iran war in early March, and it is an additional month behind because the BEA is still catching up after delays caused by the government shutdown last autumn.
Economists expect inflation to accelerate in the coming months and only begin to fade once supply disruptions from the Iran war end.
"The inflation trajectory will only steepen in the coming months to around 4.5%, with gasoline prices set to climb to $3.75 on average nationally, a spike in diesel and fertilizer prices, and rising prices in other wide-ranging commodities," Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, wrote in a commentary. "Thereafter, once the flow of oil and commodities begin to normalize, inflation could ease back to around 3% by year-end."
Update, March 13, 2026—This story was updated after publication to include commentary from economists.
News of the day for March 13, 2026
Major stock indexes come into today's session on track to post losses for the third consecutive week.Stock futures are rising ahead of the week's final trading session as investors await more inflation data and keep a close eye on the Iran war; Crude oil prices are falling after the U.S. on Thursday temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil to help stabilize the global supply chain; the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation is scheduled to be released this morning; Adobe shares are tumbling after the software maker announced a CEO succession plan; and Ulta Beauty shares are sliding as the retailer's outlook for 2026 came in lighter than expected. Here's what you need to know today.
Stock Futures Tick Higher Ahead of Inflation DataStock futures are slightly higher as investors await the week's second key report on inflation and continue monitoring developments in the Middle East. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were each up 0.4% recently. Stocks tumbled on Thursday as oil prices soared to their highest levels since 2022 amid the ongoing disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping passage. The major indexes enter today's session on track to post losses for the third consecutive week. Oil futures were down more than 2% this morning (more on that below), while gold futures held steady at around $5,120 an ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was at 4.25% after closing yesterday at 4.27%, its highest level since early February. Bitcoin was at $72,300, up from an overnight low of around $70,000.
Crude Oil Prices Slip After Recent SurgeCrude oil futures are lower this morning after the Trump administration on Thursday temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil. The Treasury Department issued exemptions to allow other countries to purchase Russian oil that is currently at sea, and said they will be in place until April 11, per The New York Times. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimated that the temporary removal of sanctions could add hundreds of millions of barrels to the global supply. Oil from Russia has had fewer places to be exported to since the U.S. and several other nations placed sanctions on the key Russian oil industry as punishment for the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. benchmark, were recently down 2.4% at $93.50 per barrel, after closing at their highest level since July 2022 on Thursday.
Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure Due TodayInvestors will get another look at inflation data this morning with the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures index for January. The delayed PCE report, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show that prices rose 2.9% in the 12 months ending in January, the same rate as in December. Today's report comes after Consumer Price Index data for February, released on Wednesday, came in exactly in line with economists' expectations. The PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge and will factor into the central bank's thinking on interest rates. The Fed's policy committee is set to meet next week and is widely expected to stand pat on interest rates amid concerns that surging oil prices stemming from the Iran war will spark inflation and weigh on economic activity. Other economic data scheduled for release Friday includes a first revision to fourth-quarter 2025 gross domestic product and the latest consumer sentiment survey for March.
Adobe Stock Drops As CEO Set to Step DownAdobe (ADBE) shares are tumbling this morning despite a solid earnings report. The software giant, which released its fiscal first-quarter results after the closing bell yesterday, also announced that CEO Shantanu Narayen is preparing to leave the role after leading Adobe for 18 years. Narayen will stay on until a successor is found, the company said. Adobe's first-quarter revenue of $6.40 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $6.06 each came in higher than expected, providing rare good news for the battered software stock. Adobe and other software firms have seen their shares slump this year amid concerns that their businesses could be seriously disrupted by the growth of generative AI. Entering the day down 23% since the start of the year, Adobe shares were down about 8% ahead of the opening bell.
Ulta Beauty Stock Slides as Outlook Comes up ShortShares of Ulta Beauty (ULTA) are also sinking this morning after the retailer's outlook disappointed. After the bell Thursday, Ulta said it earned $8.01 per share in the fourth quarter, 2 cents shy of analysts' estimates compiled by Visible Alpha, while revenue of $3.9 billion topped expectations. Ulta said it expects comparable store sales growth of 2.5% to 3.5% and earnings per share between $28.05 and $28.55 in its next fiscal year, with the midpoint of each range below the Wall Street consensus. Ulta shares were down 8% in recent premarket trading.
Rivian has unveiled eagerly awaited details on its R2 model, a launch that experts say could turn out to be a make or break moment for the EV maker.
The R2, which was introduced Thursday at the SXSW festival in Austin, is a smaller, more affordable SUV the company has made its goal since introducing a $76,990 R1S that was out of reach for most buyers. The Performance model starts at $59,485, and first deliveries will go to R1 owners this spring. Cheaper trims are coming, the company says, but not until 2027.
For a company burning through billions of dollars and whose stock price has dropped recently, the new model is one analysts say has to work if Rivian wants to stay in business. Despite the hoopla surrounding the R2, Rivian (RIVN) shares fell 8% on Thursday, pushing their year-to-date decline to 22%.
The R2 is the first Rivian priced for those in the middle lane of car buyers. How it sells will determine whether Rivian can turn its first profitable year into a sustainable business, or whether it becomes another cautionary tale about the cost of scaling an EV startup. For anyone watching the broader EV market, it's also a test for whether American consumers will buy electric vehicles without federal credits incentives.
Rivian's long-awaited mass-market SUV arrives at a steep price for most drivers. The R2 Performance, the first trim available, starts at $59,485, including delivery, this spring. The 656-horsepower model with 330 miles of range costs far more than the $45,000 pricing Rivian has been promising for two years.
For a more affordable Rivian, you'll have to wait. The Premium trim (450 horsepower, 330-mile range) arrives later this year (R1 owners get first dibs). The base model, with its single motor, 350 horsepower, 275-mile range, and $46,495 sticker price, is scheduled for 2027.
This sequencing has become standard among EV makers: start with the profitable high-end trim to build scale, then unlock cheaper versions. The risk is that buyers who reserved an R2 expecting a $45,000 vehicle will be turned off by a $59,485 edition launching first.
At that price, the R2 Performance costs more than the Tesla Model Y Performance AWD at $57,500, and the Model Y's base trim starts at about $40,000, a price Rivian won't match until 2027 at the earliest.
Will the R2 Supercharge Earnings?Rivian posted its first year of (modest) profits in 2025—an important milestone for the company. But analysts say that Rivian will have to get model costs down to about $50,000 if it's to have any hope of turning a profit again soon.
A Jefferies analyst report earlier this month estimated the company will burn through about $4.9 billion in cash in 2026, including about $750 million tied up in inventory and receivables that it can't easily use to offset spending. Rivian expects $3 billion in new money this year—equity from Volkswagen (VWAGY) and additional debt financing—but Jefferies predicts the company will end this year with about $2.3 billion in net debt.
To turn a profit on each car it sells, a target management has committed to by year-end, Rivian needs to bring the cost of building each R2 under $50,000 in 2026 and $40,000 by 2027, according to the Jefferies report.
The R2 was designed with those cost pressures in mind. Its parts and materials cost about half the R1 platform to build, according to a March 8 Morgan Stanley report on the company. Rivian's factory in Normal, Illinois, can produce up to 155,000 R2s per year, enough volume to drive costs down before a second plant in Georgia comes online.
Jefferies isn't convinced Rivian can make that timeline. When Tesla was scaling the Model 3 and Model Y, it earned about 20 cents in gross profit for every dollar of auto revenue, converting inventory to cash in about 15 days, according to Jefferies. Rivian takes more than 100 days to do the same, and Jefferies expects it to be burning more cash than it takes in through at least 2028. That likely means it'll need to raise more money—through stock sales, bonds, or more Volkswagen funding—before revenues from its new models can cover costs.
Wall Street price targets range from $12 to $25 on the stock, compared to current levels around $15. TD Cowen upgraded the company to a "buy" just two days ago, putting full-scale R2 demand at 212,000 to 335,000 units annually while casting the sell-off as a buying opportunity. A Wedbush report out last month is the most optimistic at $25, pointing to Rivian's fourth quarter earnings in 2025 and its Volkswagen partnership.
Morgan Stanley's analysis aligns more with Jefferies, pricing the stock at $12. UBS is neutral at $16.
The Tough Road Ahead for EVsThe R2 arrives at a complicated moment for the EV market. U.S. sales fell 36% year over year in the fourth quarter, the first full quarter without the federal tax credit, and Tesla, still the segment's dominant player, is ending Model S and Model X production while shifting resources toward robotaxis and humanoid robots.
Meanwhile, Honda Motor Company (HMC), Stellantis (STLA), Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) have each pivoted away from EVs as demand in the U.S. has waned.
That opens a lane—if Rivian can sell enough $59,000 SUVs to buyers promised models costing $45,000.
Adobe has had a tough time convincing investors to support its stock. Could a new CEO win them back?
Reviving interest in the once-hot software company's shares will soon be the responsibility of someone new: CEO Shantanu Narayen plans to step down after 18 years on the job—and as soon as a successor is found, Adobe (ADBE) said Thursday.
Adobe's stock has slumped amid worries about growing competition and the impact of AI on the company's business. Uncertainty about its leadership may not help its case in the near term.
The news comes as the yearslong slide for Adobe's stock continued. Shares of the Photoshop and Illustrator owner were down over 7% in extended trading following the news despite quarterly earnings that topped analysts' estimates.
Adobe for its fiscal first quarter reported adjusted earnings per share of $6.06 on a 12% year-over-year jump in revenue to a record $6.40 billion. Both figures came in above analysts' estimates as compiled by Visible Alpha.
The company forecast second-quarter EPS of $5.80 to $5.85 on revenue of $6.43 billion to $6.48 billion, also ahead of consensus projections.
Concern about the effects artificial intelligence could have on Adobe's software business, along with those of other companies in the space, have weighed on the shares, contributing to a long drawdown. Shares of Adobe were down about 23% for 2026 through Thursday's close, extending their slump over the past two years: They've lost roughly 60% off their 2024 highs.
"The announced CEO change adds another layer of uncertainty at a delicate moment in the story," Citi analysts wrote Thursday.
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