Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

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Investopedia Markets News (all except PF) episodes

  • This Pharmaceutical Stock Is Leading the S&P 500 Higher Tuesday, After 'Remarkable' Trial Results
    Tuesday's surge leaves Vertex shares up 10% since the start of the year
    Credit: Cheng Xin / Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • Vertex Pharmaceuticals shares surged Tuesday after announcing promising results from a clinical trial.
    • Analysts said the results could mark an important step for the company's kidney disease medication.


    Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) shares are soaring after the company said it achieved "remarkable" results from a new clinical trial.

    The stock was up over 8% to about $499 in recent trading, making it the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 Tuesday afternoon.

    Vertex said Monday that a Phase 3 trial of its povetacicept accomplished both its primary and secondary goals, and reduced key markers of kidney disease compared to a placebo. The drug treats immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN), a disorder that can lead to kidney damage or failure.



    Why This Matters to Investors

    Strong results from clinical trials can often boost a drugmaker's stock, as they could be seen leading to revenue gains for the company.



    Jefferies analysts on Tuesday initiated coverage of Vertex with a "buy" rating and $580 price target following the results, pointing to a growing market for IgAN drugs.

    William Blair analysts, who hold an "outperform" rating for the stock, called the trial results a "clear win for Vertex." The analysts said they now see the drug potentially being approved by the end of the year, and adding to revenue next year.

    Most analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha are bullish on the stock. Their average price target around $563 would suggest analysts see the shares climbing to record highs in the next 12 months.

    Tuesday's move higher leaves Vertex shares up more than 10% for 2026 so far, but still below their 2024 highs.

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  • Anthropic Identifies the Jobs Most Exposed to AI Risks—Is Your Occupation Affected?
    The report argues that policy makers need to prepare for a "Great Recession for white-collar workers"
    Credit: Maskot / Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • Computer programmers, customer service representatives and data entry workers face the highest AI displacement risk today, based on what AI tools can do related to their jobs, according to a new study by Anthropic.
    • There's been no surge yet in unemployment for the highest-exposure workers.
    • But hiring of workers ages 22 to 25 into AI-exposed roles has dropped by about 14% since ChatGPT launched.


    The workers most at risk from AI aren't those earning the lowest wages, but are among the best-paid, best-educated professionals in the U.S., a new study from Anthropic has found.

    Unlike past waves of automation, which hit blue-collar workers hardest, AI appears to be targeting so-called "knowledge work," and the people who do it for a living may be more vulnerable than cashiers and cooks who earn far less than them. Almost three-quarters of a computer programmer's core job tasks, for instance, are already being handled by AI—not someday, but in how it's used today.

    The study arrives as many Americans worry that AI automation may cost them their jobs, even as most research has been theoretical about which tasks AI might handle, with the most robust studies thus far showing limited effects on employment. Anthropic, the company behind the Claude AI model, is among the few organizations with direct access to real-world AI usage data at scale, making this among the more important studies on AI's effect on jobs to date.

    Which Jobs Face the Highest Real-World Risk

    Anthropic's study ranks computer programmers first, with AI being observed covering about three-quarters (74.5%) of their tasks. Customer service representatives follow at 70.1%, driven largely by AI handling customer inquiries through company APIs. Data entry keyers (67.1%), medical records specialists (66.7%), and financial and investment analysts (57.2%) round out the most exposed occupations.

    Most striking about this list is that these aren't the low-skill roles policymakers have historically worried about most in discussions about automation. Workers in the most exposed occupations earn about 47% more than workers in jobs with zero AI exposure, are far more likely to hold graduate degrees—17.4% vs. 4.5% in the zero exposure group—and are 16 percentage points more likely to be female. That's because AI is targeting knowledge work, the kind involving analysis and writing.



    What This Means To You

    If you work in a knowledge-based field that involves programming, finance, customer service or data, AI is already likely handling a meaningful share of tasks like yours. Your job may not disappear, but the door may be closing for those coming after you, as hiring in the most AI-exposed occupations has already started to slow among the youngest workers.



    AI's Potential Reach vs. AI Usage Today

    Many studies on the risks to jobs from AI have addressed what's really merely a theoretical question: what tasks might AI take over from workers? Anthropic researchers Maxim Massenkoff and Peter McCrory took a different approach, creating a measure called "observed exposure" to track which tasks Claude is automating in real-world, work-related settings.

    Their measure gives more weight to cases where AI replaces a worker's output than to cases where AI simply assists them, giving a better sense of which workers are most likely to be replaced.

    The Gap Between What AI Could Do and What It's Actually DoingThe blue area shows the share of job tasks that AI could theoretically perform among these occupational categories. The red area shows what AI is actually doing in professional settings today, based on real Claude usage data.
    Credit: Anthropic

    Most AI-related automation remains theoretical, even as many, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, are convinced that AI will replace jobs up and down the corporate ladder, rendering many jobs obsolete.

    According to the Anthropic study, AI could perform 94% of the tasks in computer and math occupations. But, in practice, Claude is covering only about a third of those tasks. Legal work has often been mentioned as particularly vulnerable to AI, but Massenkoff and McCrory found relatively little automation thus far in that field. But those in the legal, computer and math-based professions shouldn't break out the champagne just yet: This could mean, as Anthropic's researchers put it, that "AI is far from reaching its theoretical capabilities."

    As AI's deployment in the economy broadens, that gap should narrow, they argue, and so will job security in the occupations where it does.

    What the Data Says About Jobs Lost—So Far

    Mass layoffs from AI have yet to hit the most exposed workers identified by Anthropic. In line with previous research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Yale Budget Lab, Massenkoff and McCrory's analysis of federal Current Population Survey data found no meaningful increase in unemployment rates for these workers since ChatGPT launched in late 2022.

    But many have pointed out that worrying signs for the future of the labor market could be at its entry point. Among workers ages 22 to 25, the rate of starting a new job in a high-AI-exposure occupation has fallen about 14% compared with 2022. Workers over 25 show no such pattern, the study found. But Massenkoff and McCrory said there might be other reasons for these changes among the younger cohort of workers, noting that "the young workers who are not hired may be remaining at their existing jobs, taking different jobs or returning to school."

    For now, computer programmers, customer service workers, financial analysts and medical record specialists are the occupations to watch—not because AI-caused mass layoffs are imminent, but because the data has already started to move.

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  • Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Files for IPO—Here's What Investors Need to Know
    Bill Ackman has looked to legendary investor Warren Buffett as a model for Pershing Square, with large, long-term investments in a few companies.
    Credit: Patrick T. Fallon / AFP / Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • Bill Ackman's Pershing Square on Tuesday filed to go public on the New York Stock Exchange.
    • Pershing will have a dual-listing structure for the investment firm and a closed-end fund that will trade under separate tickers.


    It could soon get easier for more investors to hold stakes in Pershing Square.

    Bill Ackman's hedge fund on Tuesday filed for an initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange. The IPO will use a dual-listing structure, with shares of Pershing Square set to trade under the ticker "PS," while a closed-end fund trades under the ticker "PSUS."

    The firm said that for every 100 shares purchased of the closed-end fund, investors would receive 20 shares in Ackman's management company. Shares of the closed-end fund will be offered at $50 per share.



    Why This Matters to Investors

    Bill Ackman has looked to legendary investor Warren Buffett as a model for Pershing Square, with large, long-term investments in a concentrated group of companies. The firm's IPO could mark Ackman's next step in following Buffett, and make Pershing more accessible to a larger group of investors.



    Pershing did not disclose how many shares will be sold in the offering, but said it expects to raise between $5 billion to $10 billion in proceeds from the combined IPO. The closed-end fund has already secured $2.8 billion in commitments from a group of investors including family offices, pension funds, insurance companies, and other investors, per the filing.

    As of the end of last year, Pershing Square had $30.7 billion in assets under management, with about $20 billion in fee-paying assets and $10 billion from its stake in Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH). In 2025, Pershing Square generated about $250 million in profits on $762.5 million in revenue, the filing showed.

    Pershing Square has a publicly traded closed-end fund on the London Stock Exchange listed under "PSH," which gained 5% following Tuesday's announcement. It's lost about 17% of its value since the start of the year, though it's up about 2% from the same time a year ago.

    Ackman launched Pershing Square in 2004. The firm previously looked to generate $25 billion from an IPO of a closed-end fund before halting the plans in July 2024. At the time, Ackman said the firm would "report back once we are ready to launch a revised transaction."

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  • 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens

    News of the day for March 10, 2026

    Major stock indexes finished solidly higher on Monday, recovering from steep losses early in the day.
    Credit: Angela Weiss / AFP / Getty Images

    Stock futures are slightly lower this morning after a wild trading session yesterday amid hopes that the Iran war won't be protracted; oil prices are sliding after President Donald Trump indicated that the armed conflict could end soon; officials from G-7 countries are set to meet to discuss a potential release of oil barrels from strategic reserves; cloud computing giant Oracle is due to release its quarterly results after the closing bell; and shares of Hewlett Packard Enterprise are rising after the server maker boosted its full-year outlook. Here's what you need to know today.

    Stock Futures Tick Lower After Monday's Wild Session

    Stock futures are down slightly this morning after a volatile day of trading in which major indexes rebounded from steep early losses to close solidly higher. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were down 0.3% recently, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.2% The major indexes rallied yesterday afternoon after comments from President Trump and a meeting of international officials helped calm investors who were growing concerned about the impact of the Iran war. WTI crude oil futures, the U.S. benchmark, were down 5% at around $90 per barrel as fears about long-term supply disruptions eased. (more on that below) Gold futures were up 1.5% to $5,180 an ounce this morning, while bitcoin was at $70,500, up from a low of under $66,000 yesterday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects interest rates on a wide array of loans, was holding steady at 4.13%.

    Oil Slides on Trump's Comments About Iran War

    Oil prices are falling after President Trump told CBS News on Monday that the war in Iran is "very complete, pretty much," and reiterated in a press conference later in the day that the war is ahead of where he thought it would be at this point. Crude oil prices gained more than 30% last week as the war with Iran slowed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a near total halt and Iran attacked multiple neighboring countries that also produce oil, raising concerns about the impact the war could have on the global oil supply. WTI crude jumped to nearly $120 per barrel late Sunday, but fell sharply from those levels late yesterday after Trump's comments. Trump also told CBS News that he believed ships are starting to move through the Strait of Hormuz again, and floated the possibility of the U.S. intervening to take the waterway over and keep it open. The President also said on social media Monday that Iran would be hit "TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far" if the country attacks more ships to stop traffic in the Strait.

    G7 to Meet Over Potential Release of Oil Reserves

    Another factor helping to bring oil futures down from their four-year highs is the meeting scheduled for today between energy ministers of the Group of Seven countries. The officials are expected to discuss a potential release of oil from strategic reserves around the world to help limit the impact the conflict in the Middle East will have on the global oil supply chain. A meeting is expected to take place around 8:45 a.m. ET today, per The Wall Street Journal. French energy minister Maud Bregeon told reporters that "All options are on the table," with a goal of working to lower gas prices for consumers. The G-7 officials said after a meeting Monday that they would be willing to take a number of measures, including the release of oil from strategic reserves, to "stabilize the market."

    Oracle Earnings Due After the Closing Bell

    Tech investors will get another look under the hood of one of the market's biggest tech firms on Tuesday, with Oracle (ORCL) scheduled to post its latest quarterly earnings after the closing bell. Fiscal third-quarter revenue is projected to come in at a record $16.92 billion, along with adjusted earnings per share of $1.72. The stock has slumped in recent months amid concerns that the AI trade has left tech companies overvalued, and over Oracle's financial position. The company has taken on a mountain of debt to finance its data center expansion to meet the compute needs of a few large clients including ChatGPT maker OpenAI. Oracle shares, which have lost about one-fifth of their value since the start of the year, were up 1% in premarket trading.

    Hewlett Packard Enterprise Boosts Profit Forecast

    Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) topped Wall Street's profit expectations and lifted its guidance for the full year. Fiscal first-quarter revenue of $9.3 billion came in just below estimates, while adjusted EPS of 65 cents was 7 cents ahead of the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. The company reaffirmed its revenue forecast, but boosted its profit outlook after posting "one of our most profitable quarters on record," said CEO Antonio Neri. HPE's Networking revenue more than doubled year-over-year, driven by a 382% jump in its Data Center Networking segment, while sales in its Cloud & AI division were down about 3% year-over-year. HP Enterprise shares were down less than 1% ahead of the opening bell.

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  • Step Aside, Protein. Here's Why 'Fibermaxxing' Is America's Latest Grocery Store Obsession
    This year, Kellogg's aired its first-ever Super Bowl ad: a scatological tribute to high-fiber Raisin Bran.
    Credit: Al Drago / Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • Packaged food companies are revamping product offerings with high-fiber versions of existing favorites in response to growing consumer interest in gut health and "better-for-you" snacks.
    • The rise of GLP-1s could also have a hand in the fiber craze. Fiber, like weight-loss medications, helps regulate appetite and prevent overeating.


    Protein has been all the rage in grocery stores. Now fiber is hot on its tail.

    Americans are “fibermaxxing,” increasing their fiber intake to meet—or even exceed—daily recommended doses. The trend has been fueled by TikTok influencers extolling the health benefits of high-fiber foods like berries, chia seeds, oats, and even Dutch stroopwafels.

    The fiber frenzy is changing what people buy. The craze is just one example of growing consumer demand for what food industry executives are calling “better-for-you” snacks: Consumers, they say, are looking for more than just a salty crunch; they're also seeking products that pair convenience and holistic health benefits.



    What This Means for the Economy

    Rising demand for fiber-rich foods is the latest sign that U.S. consumers are prioritizing health and wellness when stocking their pantries. In the long run, that shift in consumer preferences could have far-reaching consequences for food budgets, product lineups and even healthcare outcomes.



    On social platforms like Reddit, consumers share dietary tips, personal experiences, and concerns about how they're feeling when they up their fiber intake. "After three days of lentils, chia seeds, and raw cruciferous vegetables, I’m pretty sure I’ve become a living greenhouse," one recently wrote.

    “Unless you have been ignoring all social media for the past year, you will know that consumer awareness of the importance of fiber has been rapidly increasing,” said Daniel Ordonez, chief operating officer of Oatly (OTLY) on the oat milk maker’s latest quarterly earnings call. 

    Health experts say there's method to the mania. The average American consumes half their daily recommended dose of fiber, a shortfall nutritionists call "the fiber gap," according to Candace Pumper, a registered dietitian nutritionist at the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, who attributes the fiber hype to “growing consumer interest in gut health, expanding product innovation, and a broader shift toward functional nutrition.”

    The popularity of GLP-1 weight-loss medications may also bear some responsibility. GLP-1s, Pumper said, “slow stomach emptying and increase satiety,” or the feeling of being full. Some consumers may be exploring dietary strategies, like increasing their protein and fiber intakes, to mimic those effects.

    Packaged food companies are flaunting their fiber bonafides and remixing some old favorites. General Mills (GIS) plans to launch Honey Nut Cheerios Protein, fiber-enriched Annie’s “Nature Pals,” and protein bars developed with sports nutrition brand Ghost later this year.

    And cereal giant Kellogg’s, in its first-ever Super Bowl ad, hired "Will Shat"—a.k.a. Star Trek star William Shatner—to tout the digestive benefits of high-fiber Raisin Bran. Doritos Protein is hitting grocery aisles this month.

    Beverage companies are also getting in on the action. They're leaning into prebiotics, a type of fiber that feeds the trillions of bacteria that call the human digestive system home. PepsiCo (PEP) acquired prebiotic soda maker Poppi for nearly $2 billion last year, and launched its own Pepsi Prebiotic Cola nationwide earlier this year.

    While fibermaxxing and the industry response to it may increase the availability and appeal of fiber-rich foods, affordability is another matter entirely. Consumers often pay a premium for products that are branded organic or healthy, and the average American is already feeling pretty pinched at the grocery checkout.

    “Closing the fiber gap will require structural solutions that make high-fiber foods more available, affordable, and intuitive for consumers to choose,” says Pumper.

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  • Here's How Much Traders Expect Oracle Stock To Move After Earnings
    Shares of Oracle have fallen nearly 60% from their September highs.
    Credit: David Paul Morris / Bloomberg / Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • Oracle is set to report earnings after the closing bell Tuesday, with Wall Street analysts projecting record revenues.
    • Options pricing suggests traders expect Oracle's stock could move as much as 10% in either direction by the end of the week.


    Oracle is set to report its latest quarterly results after the closing bell Tuesday. Traders anticipate the event could lead to a big move in the cloud computing giant's stock.

    Options pricing suggests traders see Oracle (ORCL) stock moving as much as 10% in either direction by the end of the week. A shift of that size from the stock's closing level on Monday could lift shares back to around $167, recovering some of their recent losses, or pull them down to $136.

    Shares of Oracle have lost nearly 60% from their September highs, amid concerns about its backlog's dependence on OpenAI, and whether its AI-related investments will live up to their promises.



    Why This Is Significant

    While concerns about the trajectory of AI have weighed on many tech stocks broadly in recent months, Oracle's stock has taken a harder hit than most and could face a higher bar to turn sentiment around.



    Ahead of Tuesday's report, analysts at Jefferies said they believe the recent sell-off has been overdone. They suggested investors are underestimating the company's growing opportunities outside of its relationship with OpenAI.

    Oracle is seen reporting adjusted earnings per share of $1.72 on a nearly 20% year-over-year jump in revenue to a record $16.92 billion in its fiscal third quarter, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

    Wall Street analysts are largely bullish on Oracle's stock. Of the 12 analysts with current ratings compiled by Visible Alpha, 11 recommend buying the stock, compared to just one "sell" rating. Their mean target around $247 would suggest more than 60% upside.

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  • This Year's Defense-Stock Rally Has Largely Stalled Amid the Fighting in the Middle East
    Defense stocks have slowed their ascent amid the recent fighting in the Middle East.
    Credit: Alexis Mitas / Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • Several major companies in the defense sector were generally lower on Monday even as tensions in the Middle East remain high.
    • An exception: Aureus Greenway, a golf course operator, is surging following announced plans to merge with a drone company.


    Defense stocks aren't rising despite all the fighting.

    That would seem counterintuitive—a bit like how gold prices haven't behaved the way investors expected—given that companies of that ilk seem more relevant when geopolitical tensions are running high. And yet the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) as well as the State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR), which hold stocks of companies that make defense equipment, are flat to down since the U.S.'s initial strikes on Iran.

    And investors lately have been panning crowded trades, favoring value over momentum. There are exceptions: A golf course operator called Aureus Greenway Holdings (AGH) closed more than 12% higher today after news that it would merge with a drone startup in a deal backed by President Donald Trump's sons.



    WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU

    Like gold, defense stocks are usually thought to be beneficiaries of geopolitical strife, yet the two momentum trades don't appear to be working lately after investors crowded into them last year.



    RTX (RTX), formerly Raytheon, Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), General Dynamics (GD) all closed lower on Monday. What gives? One explanation: Defense stocks, like gold, have been a hot trade, especially in the last year, and have outperformed broad market indexes in 2026.

    Investors poured more dollars into the the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF last year than in any other year since 2020 driving assets under management to more than $16 billion, Fundstrat's Hardika Singh said in a recent note.

    There's also history to consider. Though the U.S.'s spending on defense as a percentage of GDP in past conflicts like the Cold War and Vietnam were high, it did little to boost the defense sector, in part because those companies tend to operate on multiyear cycles, according to Singh; Even if defense stocks historically enjoyed a boost on the outbreak of wars, their advances weren't sustained. And when a war ends, Singh wrote, governments tend to renegotiate contracts.

    Investors on Monday bid up shares of Aureus after it announced a deal with a Florida-based drone startup called Powerus. Investors in the deal include American Ventures Partners, a firm backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., as well as drone parts manufacturer Unusual Machines (UMAC), which in 2024 appointed Don Jr. to its advisory board. Following the completion of the reverse merger, the company will operate under the name Powerus.

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  • Wealth Management in the Age of AI

    Episode 285 of the Express Podcast with Caleb Silver (March 9, 2026)

    Subscribe Now: Apple Podcasts / Spotify / PlayerFM

    The $2 trillion wealth management industry is facing an existential pivot point as artificial intelligence has made financial planning much more efficient, and much less reliant on the human touch. Jason Wenk, founder and CEO of Altruist drops in with his perspective on this dynamic shift and how the industry will evolve from here. Plus, global markets are spiraling as crude oil prices topped $120 barrel amid the ongoing and uncertain war in Iran. Uncertainty is everywhere, but The Express is live and direct from the Future Proof Wealth Festival in Miami Beach.

    Credit: MR.Cole_Photographer / Getty Images
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  • What To Expect From Wednesday's Report On Inflation
    Even if February inflation is tame, current events could overshadow the news.
    Credit: Spencer Platt / Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • The Consumer Price Index likely rose 2.4% over the year in February, the same annual inflation rate as January.
    • Wednesday's report will cover a period before the Iran war caused energy prices to surge, so it may be less relevant to financial markets than usual.


    Inflation may have been relatively tame in February, but that might not matter much to financial markets and the Fed.

    Forecasters expect a report Wednesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to show the cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% over 12 months in February, the same annual rate as in January, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. Core prices, which exclude the volatile prices for food and energy, likely rose 2.5%, also the same as in January.

    A report in line with expectations might, under normal circumstances, reassure investors and policymakers at the Federal Reserve that inflation isn't worsening, even if it's still not cooling to the Fed's 2% annual target.

    However, the data will indicate less than usual about the trajectory of inflation because of the spike in gasoline and diesel prices in early March due to the Iran war.



    What This Means For The Economy

    A flat inflation rate, though stubbornly above the Fed's goal of a 2% annual rate, would be a sign that inflation wasn't a major threat to the economy in advance of the Iran war. The war has changed the outlook, however, by pushing up energy prices and raising inflation risks.



    "Given the surge in energy prices, Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report for February loses some relevancy," Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a commentary.

    "Perhaps more important than next week's data is the evolving risk landscape for inflation as the Iran conflict poses upside risks to the inflation outlook through rising oil prices," Antonio Gabriel, global economist at Bank of America Securities, wrote in a commentary.

    Still, the report will give a look at the backdrop of inflation before the war.

    Officials at the Federal Reserve have been closely watching inflation figures to decide whether to cut the central bank's key interest rate later this year. A lower rate would reduce borrowing costs and potentially help the job market, but many Fed policymakers prefer keeping rates flat for now, for fear of stoking inflation.

    The Fed held its rate steady at its most recent meeting in January and is expected to do so again later this month.

    Two major forces are pulling consumer prices in opposite directions, economists said. On the one hand, tariffs are pushing up prices for many physical goods people buy, including cars and clothing.

    On the other hand, rent increases have been decelerating for years and are likely to continue to do so, putting downward pressure on overall inflation since housing costs make up a large percentage of inflation gauges like the CPI.

    "The February CPI report will likely run cool as tame housing costs offset the effects of tariffs. Grocery price inflation was likely tame during the month," Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, wrote in a commentary.

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  • Workers Hold on Tight to Jobs as Hiring Slows and Layoffs Rise
    Workers grew more reluctant to leave their jobs in February as employers trimmed their payrolls.
    Credit: Adam Gray / Bloomberg via Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • Fewer than 16% of workers in February said they would voluntarily leave their jobs within the next year, the lowest level recorded by the New York Federal Reserve survey in more than a decade.
    • Recent data shows that the quit rate has fallen from its peak during the “Great Resignation” of 2022, as fewer job openings are available. 
    • The decline in worker confidence comes as employers trimmed their payrolls.


    Workers are clinging to their jobs as the labor market slows.

    Employers shed jobs in February, making workers reluctant to leave their positions, according to a newly released New York Federal Reserve consumer survey. The expected quit rate, which measures the probability of workers leaving their jobs voluntarily in the next year, decreased by nearly 3 percentage points to 15.9% in February.

    It’s the lowest level recorded in more than a decade, and economists say it shows that workers are losing confidence in the labor market.

    “Many workers are accustomed to switching jobs every three to five years or so,” wrote Cory Stahle, economist at Indeed Hiring Lab. “If they’re ready to move on and the opportunities aren’t there, they feel stuck.”

    Worker Confidence Fades

    The drop in confidence comes after employers shed 92,000 jobs in February, raising fears about labor market weakness. In addition, 2025 was the slowest year for job creation outside of a recession in more than two decades. 



    Why This Matters for the Economy

    A low quit rate signals that workers feel less confident about finding better opportunities, which can slow wage growth. When employees stay put and hiring cools, it often leads to a broader economic slowdown that can weigh on the economy.



    A weak quit rate is one factor behind the “low-hire, low-fire” conditions that defined the labor market last year. Recent data has shown that the quit rate has fallen from the highs of the “Great Resignation” in 2022, when 3% of workers voluntarily left their jobs, to 2% in the latest job openings report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

    The same report showed a 3.3% hiring rate for employers, also around the lowest levels seen in more than a decade.

    “Part of the decline in hiring activity might be due to greater worker caution rather than solely to employer restraint,” wrote Anthony Chan, a former economist for JPMorgan Chase.

    There are several factors driving down quit rates, Chan wrote. One is the impact of immigration enforcement. Fewer migrant workers reduce the labor supply, which in turn affects employers' hiring plans.

    With fewer jobs available, workers are less likely to quit the one they have. Workers are facing weaker prospects, with job openings down from their 2022 highs.

    “Workers see fewer attractive opportunities in the labor market than they did during the peak of the post-pandemic expansion,” Chan wrote.

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