Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

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Investopedia Markets News (all except PF) episodes

  • Snowy Weather Stalled Sales, but Tax Refunds Should Bring Shoppers Back
    Snow likely kept shoppers from spending in January.
    Credit: Robert Miller / The Washington Post via Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • U.S. retail sales fell in January, Census Bureau data showed.
    • Sales at auto dealerships and gas stations fell, but receipts at other retailers moved higher, which economists said showed continued strength in the U.S. consumer.
    • Tax refunds are expected to be higher in 2026, which could add more upside for retail sales, but higher gas prices could be a headwind.


    Snowy weather slowed shoppers in January, but economists expect them to revive spending later this year.

    Census Bureau data showed that U.S. retail sales fell in the first month of 2026, according to a report that was delayed due to last year’s government shutdown. Economists attributed the stall to winter weather conditions across the country.

    The 0.2% sales decline was not as steep as economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires had expected.



    Why This Matters for the Economy

    Even small swings in retail sales can influence overall economic growth, corporate earnings, and stock market performance. Persistent pressures from jobs and gas prices could signal tighter household budgets and slower growth ahead.



    “This suggests that the underlying pace of spending remains solid and would have been even stronger without the temporary weather effects,” wrote Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers.

    Job Market, Gas Prices Raise Fears

    Consumer spending makes up around two-thirds of the U.S. economy and shoppers have helped drive recent growth. But weakness in the job market and persistent inflation raise questions about how much consumer appetite for spending remains. 

    Poor sales at auto dealerships and gas stations drove down overall receipts in January, while weakness in the job market and more bad weather could impact upcoming sales reports. But with tax refunds on the way, economists think there is still plenty of consumer strength left in the economy.

    “Despite the downbeat February employment report, labor market conditions still appear to be stabilizing, and we are in the early days of tax refund season, which we expect to be around 20% higher than a year ago,” wrote Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

    Another potential headwind for consumers is gas prices, which have spiked recently alongside oil prices amid the Middle East conflict. Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein said that high gas prices could dent an otherwise positive consumer outlook for March.

    “Consumers are fairly sensitive to gas prices and the average price of a gallon of gasoline is already up by twenty-five cents in the first week of March compared to the average registered in February on the national level,” the Wells Fargo economists wrote.

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  • Why Some Experts Think 'Defensive' Investors Could Lift Costco Stock Back Toward Records
    Costco shares are nearly flat over the past 12 months
    Credit: Scott Olson / Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • Costco shares rose Friday after the warehouse retailer beat estimates in its latest quarterly results.
    • Analysts said following the report that Costco stock could be in for gains this year if the retailer continues its recent trend of performance.


    Costco Wholesale's (COST) latest earnings beat estimates, giving its stock a lift. But what's next for the retailer's shares, which haven't done much over the past year?

    The warehouse retail giant said late Thursday it earned $4.58 per share in its fiscal second quarter, on revenue of $69.6 billion. That was better than the Street expected: Analysts had forecast earnings per share of $4.51 with sales of $69.1 billion, per estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

    Costco's shares were up 1% in recent trading on an off day for markets. But they're down slightly in the last 12 months despite the company posting consistently solid results. Some analysts, however, think there could be more gains ahead after a 15% rally to start this year as investors have flocked to defensive consumer-focused stocks.



    Why This Matters to Investors

    Costco shoppers have proven loyal to the retailer. Its shares, meanwhile, are about 8% below their early 2025 record of nearly $1,077, with an average analyst price target $40 shy of that record high.



    JPMorgan analysts said Costco's sales and margin growth continues to improve at a faster rate than other retailers, and said the debate for investors "as it often is, stands on valuation and when (not if) to buy" the retailer's shares. The analysts kept an "overweight" rating on the stock, lifting their price target by $10 to $1,060, in line with a Street consensus that is about 9% above Thursday's close.

    William Blair analysts said they see Costco as "well suited to find investor support as a consistent, defensive consumer name in an increasingly uncertain consumer environment," and said Costco is well-positioned to potentially offer a special dividend or increase its buybacks, which could boost the stock.

    The outstanding question of tariff refunds may also effect Costco this year. The retailer was among the companies to sue the Trump administration over its tariffs last year, and asked a court for a refund if the tariffs were struck down, which happened last month.

    CEO Ron Vachris said during Thursday's earnings call that it is uncertain if or when Costco could receive a tariff refund. The company plans to pass the recovery of those costs on to consumers through lower prices if it does receive one, according to an transcript provided by AlphaSense.

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  • These Dividend-Paying Stocks Have Been a 'Nice Place to Hide' This Year
    The dividend aristocrats have outperformed the broader market lately
    Credit: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg / Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • The dividend aristocrats, a subset of dividend-paying S&P 500 stocks, have outperformed the broader index in 2026.
    • Rising geopolitical tensions and worries about AI-driven disruption have pushed many investors into stocks perceived as safer plays to start this year.


    Are dividend stocks back in vogue?

    They seem to be having a moment. As geopolitical tensions and worries about AI-driven disruption have rattled markets to start the year, many investors are piling into stocks perceived as safer, AI-proof plays. That includes stocks that pay dividends.

    The dividend aristocrats, a subset of S&P 500 companies that have raised their dividends annually for at least 25 years in a row, have outperformed the broader index in 2026. Their roughly 7% total return, which includes dividends, compares to the benchmark index's about flat performance.



    Why This Matters to Investors

    The dividend aristocrats, a group of large, established companies, may be more attractive to investors when markets are volatile for their perceived quality and reliability.



    The dividend aristocrats haven't always outperformed the benchmark index. Last year, the group registered a total return of about 7%, compared to the S&P 500's 18%. However, the dividend aristocrats retain a reputation for helping investors better weather periods of heightened market volatility, when sentiment becomes risk-off.

    Analysts at Wolfe Research called the group their "favorite dividend strategy in periods of market turmoil" in a recent note to clients. "This cohort of stocks has generally outperformed throughout the market cycle—especially into and throughout economic downturns," they wrote, making them a "good place to 'hide.'"

    There are 69 companies among the dividend aristocrats. Many of them are household names like retail heavyweight Walmart (WMT), fast-food giant McDonald's (MCD), and maker of household cleaning products Clorox (CLX). All three of those stocks have substantially outperformed the S&P 500 in recent weeks.

    Read Investopedia's full list of the index's constituents here and today's live markets coverage here.

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  • Marvell Technology Boosts Its Sales Forecast on Strong AI Demand. The Stock Is Soaring.
    Friday's move brings Marvell shares back into positive territory for the year
    Credit: Jonathan Raa / NurPhoto / Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • Marvell Technology shares surged after the semiconductor firm posted better-than-expected earnings, thanks in large part to strong AI demand.
    • CEO Matt Murphy said revenue is expected to grow 30% this year, above the company's previous forecasts.


    Marvell Technology shares surged after the semiconductor firm posted earnings that topped estimates and raised its outlook, thanks in large part to strong AI demand.

    Shares of Marvell Technology (MRVL) were up over 16% in recent trading, at a time when broader markets lost ground. The move pulled the stock back into positive territory for the year.

    Marvell posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.80 on a 22% year-over-year jump in revenue to a record $2.22 billion for the fourth quarter. Both figures topped analysts' estimates compiled by Visible Alpha as AI-related orders grew.

    CEO Matt Murphy said over the company's earnings call that Marvell's revenue is expected to grow more than 30% this year to nearly $11 billion, well above the $9.5 billion mark the company projected at an investor event in September, per an AlphaSense transcript. Marvell also lifted its fiscal 2028 revenue forecast to $15 billion, up $2 billion from last quarter's forecast.



    Why This Matters to Investors

    Marvell shares have had a tough start to the year as some broader wariness about the AI trade weighed on many tech stocks. Friday's sharp move higher could be taken as a signal that investors are feeling better about Marvell's prospects.



    Murphy said the higher revenue forecast is "all being driven by our data center business," as tech giants continue to pour more money into expanding their AI infrastructure.

    For the current quarter, Marvell said it expects revenue of $2.28 billion to $2.52 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.74 to $0.84, above consensus projections.

    William Blair analysts wrote following the report that they see Marvell as "well positioned to grab its fair share" of the AI infrastructure market, despite some concerns about its concentration of sales among a few large customers.

    With Friday's gains, Marvell shares have added nearly one-quarter of their value over the past 12 months.

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  • The U.S. Economy Lost 92,000 Jobs In February
    Jobseekers speak with recruiters during the WorkSource North Seattle Career Fair in Seattle, Washington, US, on Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026.
    Credit: David Ryder/Bloomberg via Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • U.S. employers shed 92,000 jobs in February, making it the worst month for job creation since October.
    • The downturn came as a surprise to economists, who had expected it to add 50,000 jobs and maintain momentum after a surge in January.


    The job market was supposed to stabilize in February. Instead, it took a nosedive.

    February was the worst month for the job market since October, as employers unexpectedly shed 92,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday.

    The job losses and rise in unemployment came as a surprise to forecasters, who had called for a gain of 50,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to stay flat, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

    The report was highly anticipated as a barometer of whether the job market was stabilizing after recent slump, or whether the slowdown was continuing. 2025 was the slowest year for job creation outside of a recession in more than 20 years. A surprise upturn in job creation in January raised hopes that the market was looking up, but the loss of jobs in February was a clear signal that the job market is still losing steam.

    "While January’s jobs report raised hopes that the labor market might be turning a corner, the February report swings that discussion in the opposite direction, pointing instead to continued evidence of softening and emerging warning signs across several industries," Cory Stahle, economist at job site Indeed, wrote in a commentary.



    What This Means For The Economy

    The downturn in the job market signals overall weakness in the economy and could encourage officials at the Federal Reserve to lower the central bank's key interest rate to encourage borrowing and spending and boost hiring.



    Details of the report only underscored that message. The previous two months were downwardly revised by a combined 69,000 jobs, turning December's gain of 48,000 jobs into a loss of 17,000. The economy has now lost jobs in five of the last nine months.

    The statistics were dented by a nurses' strike in New York, which helped push down health care employment by 28,000 in February, after the sector had been the brightest spot in the labor market, adding 77,000 positions in January.

    The job downturn could be significant for borrowing costs. The loss of jobs puts pressure on Federal Reserve officials to cut interest rates to encourage borrowing and spending and prevent a sharp increase in unemployment.

    Fed officials are widely expected to keep rates steady at their next meeting later this month, but traders moved up their bets on when the next rate cut will take place. The chances of a rate cut in June rose to 36% from 30% Thursday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

    "This is going to make it harder for the Fed to sell the labor market stabilization narrative that’s been used to justify patience on further rate cuts," Elyse Ausenbaugh, head of investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Wealth Management, wrote in a commentary.

    Rate cuts are still far from guaranteed, however, since the Fed is also under pressure to keep interest rates higher for longer to push down inflation.

    The rise in energy costs because of the Iran war is adding to the inflation pressure and raising the risks of the economy entering a period of stagnant economic growth, combined with high inflation known as "stagflation."

    On top of that, the latest court rulings against President Donald Trump's tariffs, and his imposition of a new sweeping import tax have led to a fresh wave of uncertainty about trade policy, possibly weighing on the economy.

    "Add higher oil prices given conflict in the Middle East and renewed tariff uncertainty to the convoluted jobs market story, and you have a tricky, stagflationary mix of risks in the backdrop for the Fed," Ausenbaugh wrote.

    Update, March 6, 2026—This article has been updated with commentary from economists and discussion of the implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.

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  • 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens

    News of the day for March 6, 2026

    Major stock indexes are on track to post weekly losses for the second consecutive week.
    Credit: Spencer Platt / Getty Images

    Stock futures are lower on the final day of a volatile week of trading, as investors await the latest jobs report and keep close tabs on the war in the Middle East; Oil futures are surging once again over concerns about possible supply disruptions; the jobs report is expected to show that employment growth slowed in February from the previous month; global shipping giant Maersk said Friday it would temporarily close two shipping lanes in the Middle East; and shares of Marvell Technology are jumping after the chipmaker's quarterly results and outlook topped Wall Street expectations. Here's what you need to know today.

    Stock Futures Slide as Volatile Week Nears End

    Stock futures are lower this morning as investors await the release of the February jobs report, while oil prices continue soaring amid concerns about the impact of the war in Iran. (see more below) Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were down 0.6% recently, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.8%. All three major indexes finished lower on Thursday with the Dow tumbling nearly 800 points. Major stock indexes have swung wildly this week as investors have assessed the potential economic implications of the escalating armed conflict in the Middle East. Bitcoin is losing ground for the second straight day, trading at just below $70,000, down from a high of $74,000 earlier this week. Gold futures are little-changed at around $5,100 an ounce, as the safe haven asset looks to shake off its own recent volatility. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects interest rates on a wide range of consumer loans, was at 4.17%, up from 4.15% yesterday and 3.96% before Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran last weekend.

    Oil Prices Jump to Near 2-Year High

    WTI futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, surged past $86 a barrel this morning, hitting their highest level since April 2024, amid growing concerns that the widening conflict in the Middle East could cause a supply shock. Qatar energy minister Saad al-Kaabi said that the U.S. and Israel's attacks on Iran and the country's retaliatory attacks across the Middle East could halt oil and gas shipments out of the region "within days," The Financial Times reported. Oil prices have risen more than 25% this week as investors assess the impact of the war on the global supply chain. The Joint Maritime Information Center said Friday that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—through which about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas typically moves on its way from producing states of the Arabian peninsula to importers—has slowed to a "near complete halt," per Bloomberg. Oil prices are on track for their biggest weekly gain since early 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.

    Jobs Report Due Out This Morning

    Aside from the volatility over the war in Iran, the jobs report due out at 8:30 a.m. ET could also move markets on Friday. Economists project that the report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will show that U.S. employers added about 50,000 jobs in February, down from a higher-than-expected 130,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%, staying at its lowest level since last August, as the economy remains in a "low-hire, low-fire" mode. The jobs numbers are always a key factor in the Federal Reserve's thinking on interest rates. Fed officials will also be evaluating the impact of developments in the Middle East, amid concerns that rising oil prices could spur inflation and weigh on economic activity.

    Maersk Closes Pair of Shipping Lanes as War Impact Widens

    Maersk, a Danish shipping giant whose business is considered a bellwether for global trade, said Friday that it is closing two shipping lanes due to the growing conflict in the Middle East. The company said it is temporarily halting shipments along its FM1 Service route, which moves goods from the Far East to Middle East, and its ME11 route, from the Middle East to Europe. "This decision has been taken as a precautionary measure to ensure the safety of our personnel and vessels while minimizing operational disruption across our wider network," the company said.

    Marvell Technology Stock Pops on Solid Results

    Shares of Marvell Technology (MRVL) are surging Friday morning, a day after the chipmaker posted better-than-expected fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results and issued a bullish outlook for the current quarter. Revenue came in at a record $2.22 billion, while adjusted earnings per share were $0.80, each above the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. Marvell shares had been under pressure so far in 2026 as the AI trade that powered many tech stocks higher in recent years has grown less certain amid questions about overvaluation and the sustainability of the sector's finances. Marvell shares were up 12% in recent premarket trading.

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  • A Crypto Firm Joined an Exclusive Club at the Fed This Week. Here's What the 'Watershed' Moment Means.
    Kraken secured a key regulatory win this week.
    Credit: Jakub Porzycki / NurPhoto via Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • Kraken's banking unit Payward has been waiting for over five years for a Fed master account, which it recieved this week.
    • Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, an industry advocate, called the approval a "watershed moment."


    Crypto just tapped into the U.S. financial system's plumbing. That could mean a gusher of new opportunities for the industry.

    Kraken, which operates one of the oldest U.S. crypto exchanges, was this week granted approval for what is called a master account—an industry first—giving it access to the Federal Reserve's core payment systems, including Fedwire. That means Kraken's banking subsidiary can use the payment rails used by banks and credit unions to move money between institutions rather than going through an intermediary.

    That the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City approved Kraken's application is a pivotal moment for the industry. It stands to move crypto from the fringes of finance, putting it on the same footing as established banks and paving the way for other digital asset firms to do the same.



    WHY THIS MATTERS TO CRYPTO

    Aside from the optics of legitimacy, crypto firms can now more seamlessly move money through the U.S. financial system's core plumbing.



    Payward, the Kraken subsidiary, applied for access in October 2020, but the Biden administration kept digital asset firms at arm's length from the U.S. financial system. The news "marks the convergence of crypto infrastructure and sovereign financial rails," Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi said in a statement. Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis on Wednesday called Kraken's approval a "watershed moment."

    The approval boosts the profile of privately owned Kraken, which last year confidentially filed for an initial public offering. The debut would expand crypto's presence on major exchanges, joining the likes of Coinbase (COIN), Circle (CRCL), Gemini (GEMI), Bullish (BLSH) as well as others.

    The Fed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency last April withdrew several guidance documents that restricted banks from crypto and stablecoin activities. In December the OCC conditionally approved plans from a handful of crypto companies, including Circle and Ripple, to launch national trust banks that would let them offer some banking services, including custody of digital assets.Trump family-backed World Liberty Financial in January applied to do the same.

    Kraken's master account is limited to certain Fed services. It can't, for example, receive interest payments on reserves held at the central bank.

    The development isn't being received happily by the banking industry. Independent Community Bankers of America chief Rebeca Romero Rainey in a statement said Kraken's approval "poses risks to the banking system." The Bank Policy Institute's co-head of regulatory affairs, Paige Pidano Paridon, expressed concern that the approval was granted "before the Federal Reserve Board has finalized its policy framework for those accounts."

    "Sorry about your monopoly," Jesse Powell, founder and chair of Kraken, said in a social media post. "We're the bankers now."

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  • When Homeowners Are 'Locked In,' Buyers Get Priced Out
    A new study examines why mortgage rates and home prices climbed in tandem after the pandemic.
    Credit: Kevin Carter / Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • New research examines the mortgage rate "lock-in" effect that kept home prices rising along with mortgage rates after the pandemic.
    • Homeowners with ultra-low pandemic-era mortgages who would have otherwise become renters stayed in their homes instead. That kept a big chunk of the housing supply off the market and elevated prices.
    • The effect only happened in markets where there weren't enough homes being built.


    When mortgage rates rise, home prices usually go down. But the exact opposite happened when interest rates climbed after the pandemic, and new research sheds light on how and why.

    Normally, higher interest rates push prices down because buyers drop out of the market, reducing demand. But the economy was anything but normal in 2021, and a new paper by Justin Katz, a research fellow at the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, examines how and where the "lock-in" effect kept prices soaring even as mortgage rates rose. It turns out renters played a major role in the phenomenon.

    Mortgage rates began to rise in 2021 after years of rock-bottom rates, climbing to more than 7% from under 3% in just two years. Because rates were so low for so long during the pandemic, millions of homeowners had rock-bottom mortgage rates, giving them a huge financial incentive not to sell their homes. With fewer houses on the market, the supply-and-demand equation was tilted in favor of sellers, and prices continued to rise.



    What This Means For The Economy

    This research underscores that policies aimed at boosting housing supply are more likely to ease affordability pressures and stabilize a key sector of the U.S. economy.



    Katz's research tackles a potential hole in that notion: wouldn't those same locked-in homeowners have become homebuyers too? So why didn't demand fall alongside supply, and push prices down?

    The answer, Katz found, lay with the turnover between homeowners and renters. The renter-to-homeowner path isn't a one-way street. Every year, a large percentage of home sellers choose to rent their next residence, freeing up housing inventory. In September, for example, 36% of home sellers planned to rent their next home, according to Fannie Mae. The lock-in effect froze that would-be inventory in place.

    "If rate lock reduces moves by owners who would have otherwise exited to the rental market, the overall supply of owner-occupied homes declines, increasing house prices relative to rents," Katz wrote.

    Altogether, the lock-in effect accounted for 40% of the difference between where home prices were expected to be and how they actually played out between 2021 and 2023.

    Moreover, Katz found that the effect occurred only in areas where not enough homes were being built. That has implications for what policies the government should pursue to make housing more affordable.

    "Policies to improve housing affordability should focus on expanding housing supply," he wrote. "By contrast, policy interventions that affect home sales choices by changing mortgage structure, such as portability, would have little impact on aggregate house prices."

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  • Time To Go To Med School? Most New Jobs Likely To Be In Health Care
    A large part of job growth has been concentrated in health care.
    Credit: Paul Bersebach / MediaNews Group / Orange County Register via Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • The U.S. job market is being propped up almost entirely by the health care sector.
    • Forecasters expect the trend to continue in February.
    • Laid-off workers in other sectors may have a hard time transitioning to the growing field, as many health care jobs require licenses and specialized education.


    The health care sector has been one of only a few bright spots in the job market lately, and economists see that trend continuing in the near future.

    Friday's report on the job market from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show, once again, that the sector was hale and hearty while other occupations were on life support in February.

    In January, for example, the sector added 137,000 jobs, accounting for nearly all the month's job growth, while other industries lost ground. The same was true over the course of 2025—job growth would have been in the red last year if not for health care pushing it into positive territory.



    What This Means For The Economy

    The concentration of job growth in health care is a sign of weakness in the labor market, since the sector tends to be immune to the ups-and-downs of the economy.



    "This sector is almost certain to dominate job growth again in February," Dean Baker, senior fellow at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, wrote in a commentary.

    Data from Revelio Labs showed U.S. employers added 16,000 health care jobs in February while many other sectors lost jobs, the employment data analysis company said Thursday.

    The sector has been a saving grace in an economy where many industries have been losing jobs at levels typically seen during recessions, economists at job site Indeed wrote in a research note this week.

    "Driven by factors including rising incomes, expanding access to health insurance, medical product innovation, and longer life expectancies, the health care and social assistance subsector has been steadily increasing as a share of the labor force for over 30 years," economist Felix Aidala and analyst Sneha Puri wrote.

    The trend is only intensifying as baby boomers age and require more assistance. Unfortunately for job seekers, however, the best jobs in the field require licenses that can take years and extensive education.

    "The subsector’s ability to serve as a safety valve for displaced workers is limited," Aidala and Puri wrote. "High licensing requirements in several health care and social assistance occupations create steep barriers for those looking to transition from other, slowing industries."

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  • Oil Prices Are Surging—And It's Making Stock Investors Anxious. Here's Why.
    The price of oil, recently at levels not seen since 2024, shook markets Thursday.
    Credit: Angela Weiss / AFP via Getty Images


    Key Takeaways
    • Major stock indexes fell Thursday as the price of oil jumped on concerns about a possible supply shock.
    • Investors fear that supply disruptions could spur inflation, weighing on economic activity and corporate profits.


    Stocks tumbled again Thursday. You can blame the price of oil.

    All three major U.S. indexes finished lower, with Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 800 points. (Read Investopedia's full coverage of today's trading here.) What's going up? Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was recently at prices last seen in 2024.

    Rising oil prices, fueled by ongoing conflict in the Middle East—and, particularly, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime shipping route—have fanned concerns of a supply shock that could spark inflation and weigh on economic activity. That has lifted shares of energy companies but otherwise weighed on stocks broadly, unwinding some of the runup indexes had seen as investors shifted away from tech and toward comparably defensive stocks.



    Why This Matters to Investors

    Part of the investor concern regarding conflict in the Middle East comes down to the search for clarity about the path ahead. Developments in and around Iran have injected fresh uncertainty into the outlook for stocks, businesses, and even inflation and interest rates.



    "Iran doesn’t need to sink a single U.S. warship," BCA Research wrote Thursday. "It could inflict much more damage by sinking the U.S. stock and bond markets by disrupting shipping, trade, and oil tankers."

    The move lower in the Dow pulled a range of shares downward, with most of the Dow's blue-chip components in retreat. Goldman Sachs (GS), Caterpillar (CAT), Amgen (AMGN), Sherwin Williams (SHW) and Walmart (WMT)—a bank, an industrial equipment maker, a drug company, a paint producer and a big retailer—each dropped more than 3%.

    "We really have no idea how long this is going to take," said Dan Greenhaus, chief strategist at Solus Alternative Asset Management, on CNBC of U.S. operations in Iran. "That level of uncertainty... and the issues in the Straight of Hormuz really raise some concerns in markets, and it's why oil is not $60—it's now $80."

    Brent crude futures were trading at just above $84 per barrel late Thursday. The price has risen 16% since the U.S. and Israel on Saturday launched attacks on Iran that sparked a broader armed conflict in the Middle East.

    Worries that higher oil prices will hit companies' bottom lines aren't the whole story. Investors increasingly also worry that they might induce a surge in inflation that would cause the Federal Reserve to delay interest-rate cuts, a dynamic that likely weighed on tech shares Thursday.

    While oil rose, gold—traditionally seen as a hedge against uncertainty—fell. So did bitcoin, which gave back some ground gained earlier in the week on regulatory optimism.

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