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Nvidia executives said last week that the company has yet to generate any revenue from sales of its Trump-approved H200 chips to China.
Credit: Graeme Sloan / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The Trump administration is working on new rules to restrict exports of advanced chips, Bloomberg reported.
• Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, and other semiconductor stocks slumped Thursday before paring back losses.

America's chip export rules could get tougher. That hit some big tech stocks today.

The Trump administration is working on new rules that could require companies to obtain permission from the government for exports of "virtually all" of their AI accelerators, according to a Bloomberg report. The news weighed on a number of chip stocks during a down day for stocks broadly.

Shares of AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and other semiconductor firms slumped Thursday before paring back losses. Broadcom (AVGO) was a bright spot in the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX), logging a nearly 5% gain after a better-than-expected earnings report.

Why This Matters to Investors

The rules reported by Bloomberg would represent another setback for investors of American AI chipmakers such as Nvidia and AMD, who have been eager to see the companies sell more of their advanced chips to other countries.

Nvidia, AMD, and the Bureau of Industry and Security—which oversees semiconductor export controls—did not respond to Investopedia's requests for comment in time for publication.

The framework could further limit sales by chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD, the report said, as well as spur a flurry of new export licensing agreements like the ones President Donald Trump brokered with the two companies in recent months.

Nvidia and AMD last year won approvals from the Trump administration to export some of their more advanced chips to China in exchange for sharing a cut of their revenues. Still, those sales haven't been easy to land: Nvidia executives said last week that the company has yet to generate any revenue from sales of its Trump-approved H200 chips to China.

Trump's team hasn't finalized the new rules and they could still be subject to change or shelved in favor of other priorities, according to the report.

Read Investopedia's full coverage of Thursday's trading here.

Lloyd Blankfein is warning of an impending financial crisis.
Credit: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Lloyd Blankfein, who led Goldman Sachs through the 2008 financial crisis, expressed concern in several recent interviews that hidden risks within private credit may put the U.S. on track for another financial crisis.
• Blankfein is one of several Wall Street veterans warning of impending losses in private credit right as the industry and White House push to make private assets part of the average American's retirement portfolio.

The man who led Goldman Sachs through the 2008 financial crisis is sounding the alarm on private credit, joining a chorus of Wall Street veterans expressing concern at a pivotal time for the industry. 

“It sort of smells like that kind of a moment again,” said Lloyd Blankfein, referring to the Global Financial Crisis, during an interview with Pablo Salame, co-chief investment officer at Citadel. “I don’t feel the storm, but the horses are starting to whinny in the corral,” added Blankfein, who led Goldman from 2006 to 2018. 

Some on Wall Street are growing concerned about risky lending and hidden leverage within private credit. Late last year, the sudden bankruptcies of two companies tied to private credit forced several banks to disclose massive write-offs, amplifying fears the industry’s problems could ripple through financial markets. 

Why This Is Important To Investors

Distress in the mortgage market sparked the financial crisis that tanked stock markets around the world and plunged the U.S. economy into its worst downturn since the Great Depression. Some experts are increasingly worried that the private credit market, which is about the same size as the subprime mortgage market in 2008, poses similar contagion risk.

Some industry insiders have been outspoken about their concerns. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon last year warned after those bankruptcies that spotting one “cockroach” is often a sign of more creeping around. Dimon late last month said some in the financial industry were “doing some dumb things” reminiscent of the years leading up to 2008. 

Blankfein, in a separate interview, echoed Dimon in warning of recklessness within the industry. “The markets have been very good for a very long time,” he told Bloomberg’s The Big Take podcast in an episode released Sunday. “If everything is always good and there's no cost, no adverse consequences, you start to lose discipline over time.”

The stakes, he warned, are rising amid a push by Wall Street firms and the Trump administration to open private markets to everyday Americans. Advocates argue allowing private equity in 401(k)s will boost retirement account returns, helping put savers on a path to a comfortable retirement. Detractors warn the illiquidity, opacity and complexity of private assets make them unsuitable for most investors, and that their inclusion in 401(k)s exposes retirement savers to more risk than opportunity. 

“I would say the consequences of being wrong or having a problem in the account of retirees— i.e. real people, citizens, taxpayers, voters—is much more highly consequential” than credit losses dinging the portfolios of sophisticated institutional investors and wealthy accredited investors, said Blankfein.  

Recently, the private credit concerns have centered on a separate hot button issue: artificial intelligence. Software stocks have been hammered this year by fears that AI is on the cusp of upending the industry. That has pressured the valuations of private software companies, to which asset managers like Blackstone (BX), KKR (KKR) and Blue Owl Capital (OWL) are heavily exposed.

Some investors are racing for the doors. Blue Owl last month restricted investors’ ability to withdraw from one of its private credit funds. Blackstone earlier this week allowed investors to withdraw nearly 8% of its flagship private credit fund. The firm and its employees reportedly put $400 million of their own money into the fund to fulfill the $3.8 billion in redemption requests.

Blackstone President Jon Gray, in an appearance on CNBC Tuesday, attributed the rush to cash out to “a constant spin cycle” in the media that's put investors on edge. “There’s this disjointed environment now between what’s happening on the ground with underlying portfolios, and what’s happening in the news cycle,” said Gray, who added institutional investors continued to allocate significant resources to private credit and touted the strength of the companies whose loans make up the fund. 

Gray acknowledged that not every loan in the portfolio will work out, and that there are inherent risks to non-investment grade credit. “But the underlying low-leverage loans here, and the performance of those loans, that’s what’s going to stand the test of time,” he concluded.

The price of gold has mostly risen this year, though not lately.
Credit: Chen Yongnuo / China News Service / VCG via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• A stronger U.S. dollar and lower expectations of interest rate cuts in the near-term are headwinds for gold prices.
• The precious metal's outperformance over the past year might also explain why it isn't doing much now, market experts say.

Gold is usually seen as an insurance policy against geopolitical uncertainty. Not so much lately.

Amid continued tensions in the Middle East, spot gold's price slipped about 1.6% Thursday to around $5,060 per troy ounce. Funds that track the precious metal and mining stocks—like the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)—are poised to finish the week in the red. Silver prices are lower too.

There are many reasons the traditional haven asset isn't performing as investors might have expected, according to market experts.

Among them: Investors have been bidding up the precious metal for the past 12 months, treating it more like a momentum trade; ongoing strikes on Iran have pushed up oil prices, raising the likelihood of higher inflation that may make the Federal Reserve less likely to cut rates in the near-term; and the value of the U.S. dollar has risen, which tends to push gold in the opposite direction.

WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU

Gold is generally held out as a useful hedge when something goes bump in the night. Yet, the precious metal doesn't appear to be the ballast for portfolios it was supposed to be amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

"What you're seeing is things that have run up a lot maybe not run up as much as they had before," Stephen Dover of Franklin Templeton Institute told CNBC in response to a question about why investors didn't appear to be treating gold as a haven asset amid recent geopolitical turmoil.

Crowded trades have unwound, a move more pronounced in silver than in gold, according to JPMorgan's global markets strategy team. Meanwhile, they said, a lack of buying in the dollar has supported "safe haven demand" for the greenback. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of foreign currencies, was recently up about half a percentage point on Thursday.

Gold enthusiasts expect a turnaround. "The dollar bounce—boosted by the current conflict—is likely short-lived, and a resumption in the downtrend should be supportive for gold," according to a recent note from the World Gold Council.

Meanwhile, a rise in oil prices powered by the supply-shock implications of conflict in the Middle East has fueled fears of higher inflation and, subsequently, lowered near-term expectations of a rate cut.

"Global central banks have historically not responded to oil price shocks on average, but have modestly tightened rates when inflation is high and/or oil price shocks are large," Goldman Sachs' global economic team wrote in a recent report. Higher rates are generally a headwind for gold because they make yield-bearing assets, like bonds, more attractive.

Traders have recently punted their expectation of when the Federal Open Market Committee might lower its benchmark rates from June to later in the fall, with 43% recently expecting a target range of 3.25% to 3.5% for the mid-September meeting, according to CME FedWatch.

The federal government may have to refund all the tariff revenue it brought in.
Credit: Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• A federal judge has ruled that the federal government must refund much of the tariffs it collected.
• The refunds could put a dent in the federal budget to the tune of $133 billion.
• The boost to the federal budget was one of the few widely agreed-upon benefits of the import taxes that economists mostly consider a drag on the economy.

A federal court ruling in favor of tariff refunds reduces one of the economic upsides of import taxes—their benefit to the federal budget.

On Wednesday, a federal judge ruled that the government must refund the money collected under an emergency tariff provision the Supreme Court ruled illegal last month.

The order by Richard K. Eaton in the U.S. Court of International Trade could affect $133.5 billion worth of refunds paid before the tariff was struck down, Moody's Analytics estimated. Around 2,000 companies have filed lawsuits seeking the return of the tariffs, Reuters reported.

What This Means For The Economy

The return of tariff revenue to businesses, if it goes through, will add $133 billion in cash back into businesses' pockets, potentially providing a small boost to the economy.

The refund undermines what many analysts say is a benefit of import taxes: that they were on track to reduce federal spending deficits in the coming years. Although Trump has replaced part of the lost revenue by ordering a 15% global tariff, that is temporary and is likely to face legal challenges.

The refunds "could have a material impact on the fiscal picture," Jim Reid, global head of macro and thematic research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a commentary.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated the ruling against the tariffs and the refund of already collected revenue will add $1.7 trillion to the federal deficit over the next 10 years. Before the ruling, the Congressional Budget Office had estimated tariffs would reduce deficits by $3 trillion.

The tariffs were meant to boost the economy by reviving manufacturing and helping secure favorable trade deals with foreign countries. However, many economists say the tariffs have been a drag on the economy, largely because they have created so much uncertainty among business leaders about future trade policy. Analysts across the spectrum had broadly agreed that the relief to the federal budget was a major benefit of the import taxes.

The fate of the refunds is still far from certain. The process is likely to be legally messy, Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh said last month in a dissenting opinion. President Donald Trump indicated his administration would fight the refunds, predicting the case would be "in court the next five years."

In turn, several people have filed lawsuits seeking refunds of tariffs that companies passed along to customers. Last week, a Florida man filed a class-action lawsuit against FedEx seeking refunds.

Greg Abel (center), seen here at the 2022 Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting, took over as CEO in January.
Credit: Dan Brouillette /Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Berkshire Hathaway is resuming share buybacks for the first time in nearly two years.
• CEO Greg Abel, who stepped into the role after Warren Buffett retired at the end of 2025, also moved to buy $15 million worth of shares.

Berkshire Hathaway's new CEO has the company buying back its own stock for the first time in two years. He's also buying up the shares, in a show of confidence in their future gains.

Greg Abel, who took the helm of Berkshire (BRK.A, BRK.B) at the start of the year, told CNBC in a televised interview Thursday the buybacks follow the company's longstanding playbook when shares fall below their perceived intrinsic value.

The conglomerate's class B shares were up about 2% in recent trading following the news, recovering some of their recent losses after a disappointing fourth-quarter report released over the weekend.

Berkshire's "value proposition is very strong, and we're doing it on behalf of, obviously, others and owners. We have to view this as value that we're creating value for our shareholders long term," Abel said.

Why This Matters to Investors

Abel has sought to reassure investors of his ability to deliver returns for Berkshire's investors amid uncertainty about how the company could change under his leadership.

It's a move Berkshire hasn't made since May 2024, after a strong stretch for the company's stock, which logged double-digit gains that year and in 2025.

Abel, who said he consulted legendary investor and former CEO Warren Buffett about the decision, suggested the conglomerate will continue to buy back the shares, "as long as our intrinsic value exceeds the market value." The 95-year-old Buffett, who served as CEO for six decades, remains on the company's board.

Meanwhile, Abel also moved to snap up $15 million worth stock for himself, using his after-tax annual salary. Abel also said he plans to continue using his full after-tax salary to purchase Berkshire shares every year he's CEO, in a show of his "absolute alignment with our shareholders, our partners, our owners."

"I absolutely obviously believe in Berkshire," said Abel. "I inherited a company that has an incredible foundation."

Even with Thursday's rise, shares of Berkshire are down slightly in 2026.

AI fears have investors rotating out of many previously high-flying AI stocks, and into ones deemed AI-proof lately
Credit: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Some of the AI trade's biggest winners last year have flagged lately, amid worries about the technology's impact. Meanwhile, some corners of the market deemed AI-proof have gained.
• That's given rise to a new acronym on Wall Street called "HALO," which stands for "heavy assets, low obsolescence."

There's a new way to describe the "anything but AI" trade that's been getting traction on Wall Street lately.

The "HALO" trade, attributed to Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown, stands for "heavy assets, low obsolescence," or assets widely deemed as AI-proof that have gotten a boost lately, while AI fears weigh on some previously high-flying corners of the AI trade.

In a blog post last month, Brown said these are the stocks associated with physical, heavy assets that "you can buy and not worry about" because they're "undistruptable" by AI. Some of the examples Brown gave included major oil companies like ExxonMobil (XOM), fast food giant McDonald’s (MCD), and America's biggest brick-and-mortar retailer Walmart (WMT), all of which have surged this year.

Why This Is Significant

Hedging against AI could be one of the defining investing themes of this year amid concerns that big AI investments by major tech companies won't generate the returns many investors hope for, while the technology disrupts a wide range of businesses.

Through Wednesday's close, shares of ExxonMobil had added about one-quarter of their value year-to-date, while Walmart had climbed 15% and McDonald's was up nearly 9%. The energy, materials and consumer staples sectors are some of the best-performing corners of the market for 2026 so far, while technology is one of the worst.

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA), the AI chipmaker at the heart of the AI boom in recent years, have lost ground over the past week despite a blockbuster earnings report, and the stock is in the red so far in 2026. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) which includes Nvidia along with other Big Tech giants, is down 6% in 2026.

In a note to clients last week, Goldman Sachs analysts suggested that stock outperformance for capital-intensive "HALO" companies could continue, as earnings momentum turns in their favor. Consensus estimates now suggest faster earnings growth and an improving return on investment for capital-intensive companies, they said, while earnings for the firm's capital-light grouping are forecasted to be roughly flat.

"Higher real yields, geopolitical fragmentation and supply chain rewiring have shifted equity leadership back toward tangible productive assets. Markets are rewarding capacity, networks, infrastructure and engineering complexity—assets that are costly to replicate and less exposed to technological obsolescence," they wrote.

Take A Number: A Striking Figure In Economic News Today

Key Takeaways

• Small monthly changes in the unemployment rate often grab headlines, but economists say they aren't significant unless it changes by at least 0.3 percentage points over three months.
• The BLS surveys that determine the rate are subject to some sampling error, so blips smaller than that are likely more noise than signal.
• The next report on job creation and the unemployment rate is due to be released Friday.

Forget about small monthly changes in the unemployment rate: the number is only meaningful if it's a sustained change by at least 0.3 percentage points over three months.

That's according to researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, who highlighted the sometimes-overlooked statistical reality behind one of the most closely-watched figures in economics.

In a blog post Monday, researchers Alexander Bick and Kevin Bloodworth II noted the unemployment rate is based on a survey of 60,000 people by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that, despite being the gold standard of economic statistics, is subject to a certain amount of error and noise.

What This Means For The Economy

Statistical significance is an important concept to keep in mind when interpreting changes in the unemployment rate and other economic data: tiny changes may not say much about the health of the economy.

"Individual monthly changes, even of 0.2 percentage points, are often too noisy to determine whether they reflect true fluctuations or sampling variation, while sustained movements over three months of at least 0.3 percentage points provide much stronger evidence of genuine labor market trends," they wrote.

In other words, when the BLS's highly anticipated report on the job market comes out Friday, don't read too much into small changes in the unemployment rate compared to January. That month, the rate was 4.3%, just a tick lower than 4.4% in September. (There was no data three months before that in October due to the government shutdown.)

Correction, March 5, 2026—A previous version of this headline incorrectly referred to the units of measurement. It's percentage points. The article was originally published March 5, 2026.

News of the day for March 5, 2026

Major indexes have swung wildly so far this week as investors assess the potential impact of the escalating armed conflict in the Middle East.
Credit: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Stock futures are lower this morning while oil prices are rising as investors keep tabs on developments in the Middle East; Broadcom shares are surging after the chipmaker reported better-than-expected results fueled by booming AI-related sales; Stubhub stock is plunging after a weak earnings report; retail giant Costco is scheduled to release its quarterly results after the closing bell; and China is forecasting weaker economic growth. Here's what you need to know today.

Stock Futures Slip After Yesterday's Rally

Stock futures are losing ground after major indexes rebounded yesterday from an early-week sell-off, as investors continue to assess the potential impact of the escalating armed conflict in the Middle East. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 0.6% recently, while those linked to the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 0.3%. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, the U.S. benchmark, were up more than 3% at around $77 per barrel, trading at their highest level in more than a year amid concerns that the war could disrupt supplies, sparking inflation and weighing on economic activity. Bitcoin was holding steady at around $73,000 after surging yesterday, while gold futures rose 0.6% to $5,165 an ounce. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects interest rates on all sorts of loans, was at 4.13%, up from 4.08% at yesterday's close and trading at its highest level in three weeks.

Broadcom Stock Surges on Strong AI Sales

Broadcom (AVGO) shares are jumping after the chipmaker delivered a better-than-expected earnings report on the back of strong AI sales. Broadcom posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.05 as revenue surged 29% year-over-year to a record $19.31 billion, both above analyst estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. The supplier for Meta (Meta) and Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google forecast current quarter revenue of $22 billion, also beating estimates. Through Wednesday's close, Broadcom shares were down 8% since the start of the year amid a broader pullback in many AI-exposed stocks. Broadcom shares were up 6% in recent premarket trading.

StubHub Shares Drop After Weak Results

Shares of StubHub (STUB) plunged after the ticket seller posted a loss for the 2025 fourth quarter as the company moves forward with its strategy to invest in product development. StubHub posted a $535 million net loss, compared to the $2.96 million profit that analysts expected, per Visible Alpha, while its sales of $449 million also fell short of expectations. CEO Eric Baker said that the company was employing a “disciplined and strategic approach” to product development that would position the firm to “deliver sustainable long-term value.” StubHub shares were down 14% before the bell.

Costco Set to Release Earnings Today

Retail giant Costco (COST) is scheduled to release its earnings report after markets close today. Analysts on average expect Costco to report an 8% increase in sales for its fiscal 2026 second quarter, while adjusted earnings per share are seen rising 12% to $4.53, according to Visible Alpha. Following a downbeat 2025, the membership retailer’s shares are up 17% since the start of this year. The stock was down slightly in premarket trading today.

China Sets Lowest Growth Target Since 1990s

China set its lowest target for economic growth since the 1990s, signaling that the country is preparing for a period of slower expansion, according to a Wall Street Journal report. Beijing set its 2026 target for gross domestic product growth at 4.5% to 5%. China reported that it grew its economy by 5% in 2025 despite the trade war with the U.S. China is the world's second-largest economy, and a slowdown in growth would affect global economic activity.

Broadcom shares have lost ground in recent weeks, amid a broader pullback in AI-exposed stocks
Credit: Jonathan Raa / NurPhoto / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Broadcom posted quarterly results that topped analysts' estimates, thanks to strong demand for its AI offerings. 
• The stock has lost more than a fifth of its value from its December highs amid a broader pullback in AI-exposed stocks.

Can Broadcom's latest quarterly results revive enthusiasm for its stock?

Shares of Broadcom (AVGO) were recently up more than 4% in extended trading, after the chipmaker posted better-than-expected results for its fiscal first quarter.

Broadcom posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.05 on a 29% year-over-year jump in revenue to a record $19.31 billion as AI sales more than doubled. Both figures topped analysts' estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

Why This Is Significant

The strong results could help revive flagging enthusiasm for Broadcom's stock, though analysts warned it may face an uphill battle from weak sentiment around parts of the AI trade.

CEO Hock Tan said Broadcom saw "robust demand for custom AI accelerators and AI networking," and that he sees that momentum continuing in the current quarter.

The supplier for Meta (Meta) and Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google forecast second-quarter revenue of $22 billion, above the $20.31 billion analysts called for.

If Broadcom's gains hold, they could help the shares recover some of their recent losses. They were down about 8% for 2026 through Wednesday's close, after a broader pullback in many AI-exposed stocks in recent weeks.

Mounting financial pressure is causing households to change their behaviors.
Credit: More Americans are collecting scrap metal, selling their clothes, skipping meals, and hunting for bargains to make ends meet, according to a Federal Reserve report Wednesday.

Key Takeaways

• The rising cost of living is forcing households across the country into desperate measures, including taking out payday loans and skipping meals.
• The trend is affecting retailers, who say customers are trading down to cheaper brands.
• The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" report suggested the economy is growing more "K-shaped," with wealthier households doing better while those at the bottom of the income ladder struggle more.

More Americans are collecting scrap metal, selling their clothes, skipping meals, and hunting for bargains to make ends meet.

The Fed's "Beige Book" report published Wednesday suggested the economy is growing more "K-shaped." The collection of anecdotal information from around the country collected in February showed wealthier households benefitting from a booming stock market while the rising cost of living squeezes people with lower and moderate incomes.

What This Means For The Economy

The report suggests many households are getting more frugal, which could undermine consumer spending, the main engine of U.S. economic growth in the months ahead.

The economy has stayed afloat amid a series of shocks, including tariffs, an immigration crackdown and government shutdowns. However, persistently high inflation combined with a lackluster job market is taking a toll on lower-income households, who are increasingly struggling to pay the bills, according to the Fed's contacts in regions across the nation.

The Beige Book isn't based on hard data, but Fed officials and other experts use it to spot economic trends. Nearly every Fed district included in the Beige Book reported rising distress in its respective areas.

In Boston, more people used food banks.

"Contacts reported low- and moderate-income communities faced continued pressures from high costs of food, rent, and energy, including home heating," the report said. "Increased reliance on food pantries, first reported last October, persisted in recent months, with especially acute needs in November with the temporary suspension of federal SNAP funds."

Community organizations in Cleveland noted the trend, too.

"Nonprofits reported that clients’ financial stress worsened over the past three months because of elevated food, utility, and housing costs coupled with reduced social support services," the report said. "In response, contacts said some clients stopped paying bills, skipped meals, or delayed medical care. One contact noted seeing more employed individuals requesting food, rent, and utility assistance, and another noticed more seniors seeking employment to make ends meet."

In Atlanta, people turned to desperate measures.

"Individuals reported employing a variety of strategies for navigating tight household budgets, including selling clothes online, scrapping metal, tapping savings, utilizing buy now/pay later offerings, eliminating dining out, using coupons, and buying in bulk," the report said.

Retailers noticed the pattern as well. In New York, "a major retailer reported that sales revenues surpassed last year’s levels but were driven by elevated selling prices due to the cost pass-through from tariffs; sales gains remained concentrated among higher-income consumers, who nonetheless remained price-conscious and shopped across multiple outlets to find value."

Other businesses said they had avoided passing cost increases on to customers, narrowing their profit margins, because their clients couldn't tolerate higher costs.

The report also repeated themes from previous reports, including businesses passing the cost of tariffs to customers to varying degrees, and customers at different income levels becoming more cost-conscious and seeking deals.