Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

• Stocks rebounded from an early-morning sell-off for a second straight day on Tuesday, underscoring investors' conviction that the U.S. war in Iran won't fundamentally change the outlook for a resilient economy.
• A complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a remote possibility by most estimates—would be required for oil prices to have a sustained negative effect on U.S. inflation and economic growth, according to some economists.

With every passing day, the conflict in the Middle East expands to new fronts, but that’s not scaring off investors.

Stocks rebounded on Tuesday from an early morning sell-off, an echo of Monday’s session. The major indexes all fell about 2.5% in the first hour of trading Tuesday, and then slowly and steadily pared their losses to finish the day down less than 1%. (Read Investopedia’s live markets coverage here.) Why have investors been so quick to shrug off escalation and buy the dip? 

The worst case scenario for the U.S. stock market in light of events in the Middle East “would be if oil prices were to rise sharply and persistently enough to pose risk to the duration of the business cycle,” wrote Morgan Stanley analysts in a recent note. “However, because we believe we're in an early cycle environment today with many favorable drivers,” oil would need to be a big drag on the economy to offset its strength. 

Oil prices are the primary mechanism through which investors expect war in the Middle East will impact the U.S. economy and stock market. Many experts say the economy can weather high prices and volatility if disruptions to global oil supply are short-lived.

Economists at Oxford Economics expressed a similar view. “Except for a severe closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we anticipate the current US goldilocks macro environment to remain largely unaffected by the conflict,” they wrote on Tuesday. 

The Strait of Hormuz, which borders Iran and connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, is one of the global economy’s biggest vulnerabilities. About a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transits the channel on its way from the petroleum producing states of the Arabian peninsula to importers, primarily in Asia.

Traffic in the strait slowed to a trickle over the weekend after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran. It was effectively at a standstill on Tuesday after Iran said it was closing the waterway to all ships.  Oil prices rose sharply for the second straight day on Tuesday, though the gains moderated after President Donald Trump said that the U.S. Navy would escort tankers through the straight if necessary.

Oxford Economics estimates that a “modest disruption” in the strait lasting two months would drive oil prices high enough to add 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to U.S. inflation. That would surely add to anxiety about the impact that tariffs will have on prices this year. It would also be a reason for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged throughout the first half of the year, according to Oxford Economics. “But our modelling suggests this would do little to crimp spending and thus likely fail to derail markets,” according to the firm. 

Only a complete shutdown of the strait would raise oil prices enough to change the outlook, according to Oxford Economics. They forecast a complete blockade would push Brent crude, the European benchmark, to $130 a barrel, a full $50 higher than its price in recent trading. On Tuesday, the firm put the likelihood of a complete blockade at just 10% and said the odds are “diminishing over time” as Iran extends the reach of its retaliatory strikes and depletes its firepower.

• Target shares jumped Tuesday after the retailer reported earnings that topped analysts' estimates and gave a rosy outlook.
• New CEO Michael Fiddelke, who took the helm last month, forecast a return to sales growth this year.

Target's stock soared Tuesday after the retailer posted better-than-expected earnings and its new CEO pledged a return to sales growth.

CEO Michael Fiddelke, who took the helm last month, told investors the company plans a number of changes to “get Target back to growth,” including improving its selection of products and redesigning stores for a better shopping experience. Target said it expects sales to rise 2% this year, after recording a 1.7% drop to $104.78 billion in 2025.

Shares of Target (TGT) jumped nearly 7% to just under $121 Tuesday, making it one of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 on a day when the broader markets lost ground.

Tuesday's stock gains could could be taken as an encouraging signal for sentiment around Fiddelke's leadership and Target's business, which has struggled with a slide in sales.

The retailer reported adjusted earnings of $2.44 per share for the fourth quarter, up 1.5% from a year earlier. Analysts polled by Visible Alpha had expected a decline. Net sales of $30.45 billion were down 1.5% year-over-year, roughly in line with expectations.

Fiddelke said the company "saw a healthy, positive sales increase in February, serving as an important milestone on our path back to growth this year, and reinforcing my confidence in the momentum we're building and the future we're creating together."

For fiscal 2026, Target said it expects adjusted EPS of $7.50 to $8.00, with the midpoint above the $7.66 analysts called for. Its current-quarter adjusted earnings forecast of "flat to up slightly" from $1.30 a year ago was below the consensus.

With today's gains, Target shares have added nearly one-quarter of their value since the start of the year.

• UBS analysts said they expect Berkshire Hathaway's stock to outperform the broader market amid heightened volatility.
• A preference for less-risky plays could benefit Berkshire Hathaway, which "is generally considered very defensive," according to UBS.

Berkshire Hathaway could be set for outperformance as geopolitical tensions rise, according to one Wall Street firm.

Analysts at UBS, in a note to clients, said they "anticipate BRK's shares will outperform the broader market given the elevated geopolitical tensions".

Shares of the conglomerate (BRK.A, BRK.B) rose slightly Tuesday while the major indexes lost ground. Worries about developments in Iran after the U.S. and Israel launched a joint attack over the weekend have rattled markets to start to the week, driving investors into stocks seen as defensive plays.

When geopolitical conflicts drive heightened volatility, investors tend to seek refuge in traditional safe haven and defensive assets. Those impulses could benefit Berkshire Hathaway.

"Historically, BRK shares have outperformed during periods of market volatility benefiting from their diversified earnings streams, liquidity position, and largely US focused businesses," UBS wrote.

The firm added that Berkshire's annual letter over the weekend reiterated core principles and values supporting those expectations, though sentiment around the stock has taken a hit after a disappointing fourth-quarter report.

Berkshire's financial results released over the weekend revealed a nearly 30% year-over-year drop in operating earnings during Warren Buffett’s final quarter as CEO, as the company took write-downs of its stakes in Kraft Heinz (KHC) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY).

Investors sent the conglomerate's class B shares down 5% Monday following the release, dragging them into negative territory for the year.

UBS lowered its 12-month price target for the shares to $578 from $587. That would still suggest 20% upside from their closing level on Tuesday.

Mining Giant Newmont Is The Biggest Decliner in the S&P 500 Today

• Mining stocks including Newmont, Barrick and Freeport McMoRan are getting battered as gold gives back some of the gains posted yesterday after the start of an armed conflict in the Middle East.
• Research shows boosts in metal prices amid large-scale conflicts tend to dissipate as uncertainty clears.

Intensifying conflict in the Middle East is driving stocks, bonds and even some safe-haven assets lower on Tuesday.

One of those have typical havens, gold, is down sharply after surging in the immediate aftermath of the initial strikes on Iran over the weekend. That's dragging mining stocks down along with it.

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a popular exchange traded fund tied to the price of gold, was down 4% recently, as the spot price of the precious metal dropped to around $5,130 an ounce, after hitting a high above $5,400 yesterday. Meanwhile, shares of Newmont (NEM), the world's largest gold producer, fell more than 8% to pace S&P 500 decliners, while miners Barrick (B) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) also tumbled.

The sell-off in mining stocks would make sense given they tend to move with metal prices, but investors are more than likely puzzled by the latest action in gold—a haven asset expected to outperform when tensions run high. Turns out, conflict-related price gains are easy come, easy go, according to commodity experts. Plus, commodity prices tend to move in the opposite direction of another haven asset, the U.S. dollar, and the greenback is gaining.

While gold is often used as a hedge against the market volatility associated with geopolitical concerns, price gains during at the start of a major conflict rarely last.

"Conflict-driven risk premiums in gold can be sharp but hard to sustain," JPMorgan's global commodities research team including Gregory Shearer said in a recently published report.

Gold prices have surged during past large-scale conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa region, they wrote, but "ultimately proved fleeting as more certainty around the situation emerged." That was the case in the 1980 Iran-Iraq War, the 1990-1991 Gulf War as well as the 2003 Iraq War. The firm remains bullish on gold, with a yearend price target of $6,300.

Meanwhile, the dollar is strengthening against other major foreign currencies, which in turn appears to be weighing on gold prices as the precious metal tends to move inversely with the greenback. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the value of the buck against a basket of six major foreign currencies including the euro, the pound, and the Japanese yen, was up nearly 1% in mid-afternoon trading Tuesday, at its highest level since mid-January.

"A major reversal in the currency markets is reverberating across the world as the US dollar safe haven trade is in full force," Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group told Investopedia.

Other precious metals were also losing ground on Tuesday. Spot silver prices were down about 7% recently, while platinum and palladium also tumbled.

• The Housing for the 21st Century bill includes provisions that could free up more lending for low- and middle-income apartment buildings.
• The House of Representatives and Senate still need to merge their housing legislation before it can be sent to the president.

Any recent homebuyer knows that finding an affordable place to live has become increasingly difficult. Congress believes it has a solution: more apartments.

The House of Representatives passed legislation last month that would change how apartment building construction is financed, allowing banks to lend more money for multifamily projects. The result could be more apartments, which could drive down rent.

Housing affordability affects everything from household budgets to inflation data. If Congress makes it easier to finance apartment construction, a larger rental supply could ease rent pressures, influence home prices, and ultimately affect consumer spending, real estate values, and broader economic growth.

“I think you're going to see a lot more units come online, and that will have a dramatic impact, we believe, on the abundance of affordable housing,” said Owen Caine, assistant vice president for federal legislative affairs at the National Apartment Association.

High prices have sidelined buyers, keeping home sales at decades-low levels. Buyers have struggled with home prices that have surged since the pandemic, while mortgage rates have hovered over 6% for much of the past four years. 

Limited supply has also kept prices high, giving buyers fewer options and letting sellers hold firm. With high prices keeping potential buyers on the sidelines, many have continued renting.

“Apartments or multifamily homes make up a sizable portion of affordable housing in this country,” Caine said. “Rentals are always going to be more on the affordable side.”

Elevated home prices have driven a surge in apartment construction over the past few years, with RentCafe finding that builders added more than 500,000 rental units in both 2024 and 2025, hitting record levels. The study showed that affordable housing construction grew by 73% from 2020 to 2024.

While the Housing for the 21st Century bill passed the House of Representatives by a 309-9 vote, it will need to be reconciled with the ROAD to Housing Act, which passed the Senate in October.

More apartment inventory could help renters. A recent report from Realtor.com showed that rental vacancies were 7.6% in 2025, helping tip the market in favor of renters on prices and unit availability. But it could also help homebuyers, Caine said, noting that more apartments would also free up housing inventory elsewhere.

“The more supply you have in any general section of housing creates supply everywhere,” Caine said. “If you're able to house more people in multifamily housing, that frees up the ability for other people who may have the capital to buy single-family homes.”

• Fed officials are widely expected to hold the central bank's key interest rate steady at its next meeting on March 17 and 18.
• Officials are split on the strategy for future meetings: whether to lower interest rates to help the job market or keep them higher for longer to fight inflation.
• Outside of the meeting, the Fed faces a leadership change and questions about how independent it can remain from the White House's control.

The Federal Reserve's policy committee next meets March 17 and 18, and officials are expected to hold the central bank's key interest rate steady for the second meeting in a row.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet to consider cutting the federal funds rate from its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The Fed held the rate steady at its January meeting. It lowered it by a quarter of a percentage point at each of the previous three meetings to prevent the recent job market slowdown from turning into a serious increase in unemployment.

The Fed's rate decision, along with what the committee signals about its future moves, will influence borrowing costs across all kinds of loans, inflation, and the job market in the months ahead.

Fed officials have mostly entered "wait-and-see" mode to assess how the economy reacts to its recent moves before cutting rates again. Financial markets are pricing in a 97% chance the Fed will hold the fed funds rate steady at its next meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

The fed funds rate influences borrowing costs on short-term loans such as credit cards and car loans, and indirectly affects rates for mortgages and other longer-term credit. Lower interest rates generally encourage spending and boost the economy, while higher interest rates reduce demand and push down inflation.

However, the central bank's 12-person policy committee is split on the strategy ahead as it pursues its dual mandate to keep inflation low and employment high.

One contingent sees a greater risk of inflation reigniting and favors keeping rates higher for longer to ensure it falls back to the Fed's 2% annual target. A few Fed members even wanted to signal that a rate increase is in the cards if inflation runs hotter than expected, according to minutes from the most recent Fed meeting.

Several participants indicated that they would have supported a two-sided description of the Committee’s future interest rate decisions, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation remains above the target.

On the opposite end of the debate, at least one Fed official, Stephen Miran, is pushing for the steep rate cuts President Donald Trump has demanded. Last week, Miran said the Fed should make four rate cuts this year (which would lower the rate by a full percentage point) and make them sooner rather than later.

Although inflation is still above the Fed's 2% annual target, Miran said it was likely to fall. Other Fed officials have said rate cuts will be needed to boost the faltering job market.

Although the possibility of a rate cut is a long shot, March could still be a pivotal month for the Fed, thanks to an impending leadership change as well as ongoing legal pressure from President Donald Trump's administration.

Time is ticking for the Senate to hold confirmation hearings for Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's nominee to serve as chair of the Federal Reserve. If approved by Congress, Warsh would take the reins at the central bank when Jerome Powell's term as chair ends in May.

Powell has not said if he will continue as a rank-and-file member of the Fed's Board of Governors after his chairmanship ends. Powell has been asked about that issue at past press conferences and declined to answer. A further complication could arise if a key Republican senator follows through on threats to block Warsh's confirmation.

Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina and member of the powerful Senate banking committee, has said he would hold up Warsh's confirmation unless the administration drops an investigation into renovations at the Federal Reserve's building.

The probe is aimed at Powell's statements to the Senate last year about alleged cost overruns in a years-long project to renovate the Fed's headquarters in Washington. The Fed has reportedly resisted subpoenas from the Justice Department in the investigation, the Wall Street Journal reported.

A further leadership shakeup may be ahead as the Supreme Court considers whether to allow Trump to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The high court heard oral arguments in the case in January and is expected to rule by June on whether the unprecedented firing can proceed.

Both actions against Fed officials have raised questions about whether the Fed will remain an independent agency free of White House control. Economists say the Fed's independence is key to its credibility and its ability to manage inflation.

Episode 284 of the Investopedia Express podcast with Caleb Silver (Mar.2, 2026)

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The attack on Iran led by the U.S. and Israel has global markets reeling as investors brace for more uncertainty in the oil-heavy region. Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets drops in to show us how traders and investors should evaluate the fallout, and what this means for major asset classes. Plus, Wall Street is placing Puts like it’s 2008. What is the Big Money afraid of?

• Morgan Stanley analysts named Nvidia their top semiconductor stock, citing its relatively low valuation and confidence that AI spending will support rapid growth for years to come.
• The analysts expect Nvidia's GPU Technology Conference later this month will help dispel concerns about market share that have been a headwind for the stock.

Nvidia, the one-time poster child of the AI craze, is poised to regain some of its magic, according to some experts. 

Morgan Stanley analysts on Tuesday named Nvidia (NVDA) their top semiconductor pick, citing an attractive valuation and a belief that conviction in the stock is primed to bounce back. 

Nvidia was last Morgan Stanley’s top semis pick in September, when the firm transferred that title to memory device maker Sandisk (SNDK) amid a surge in demand for data center storage solutions. Sandisk was replaced by memory chip maker Micron (MU) in November. 

Over the past three years, Nvidia's earnings and stock have, respectively, become bellwethers of AI demand and enthusiasm on Wall Street. Recently, earnings expectations and the stock have diverged, underscoring Wall Street's growing skepticism of AI even as companies spend hand over fist on the technology.

Since making those changes, Sandisk and Micron stocks have skyrocketed while Nvidia has languished. The stock is down about 8% since last week’s blockbuster earnings report, with concerns about market share challenges and the sustainability of GPU demand weighing on sentiment. 

Morgan Stanley’s analysts on Tuesday called Nvidia stock’s forward price-to-earnings ratio of 18x “a surprisingly good entry point” for a stock that they expect is poised to get its groove back. 

Shares have been pressured recently by concerns that hyperscalers like Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are already spending the most they possibly can on AI infrastructure. The argument goes: Nvidia’s growth can’t accelerate from here because there’s no more fuel in the tank. 

Morgan Stanley does see ways for hyperscalers to up their spending. They can tap financial markets for fresh capital, and they can direct revenues from their rapidly expanding cloud computing businesses back into that business. 

There is also ample evidence that Nvidia’s biggest customers want to increase their investments. Hyperscalers are paying in-full, upfront on 3-year memory supply orders, according to the analysts, who ask: “Are they doing that with the intent of slowing spending next year?” 

“There is simply no indication that the current investment cycle has run its course, and there is plenty of evidence that the spenders intend to keep spending for at least a couple more years,” the analysts wrote. 

As for the market share concerns, Morgan Stanley acknowledges that competitors like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and custom chip designer Broadcom (AVGO) are likely to grow faster than Nvidia this year. However, that growth difference is driven more by Nvidia’s dominance in the market—they estimate it captures 85% of all AI chip revenue—than by competitors chipping away at its moat by releasing superior products. It’s easier to double $1 billion of revenue than $100 billion. 

Morgan Stanley expects Nvidia’s GPU Technology Conference later this month will allay Wall Street’s market share worries. They predict the conference will “look very similar to 2024, when we got a full look into NVIDIA's 4 year roadmap and it became clear that this race is not just about the silicon, but also rack and ecosystem development.” 

Trading in Nvidia’s stock so far this year also bears a striking resemblance to the past three years. At the beginning of each of those year, “there was skepticism about the following year, and each time when visibility filled in and we realized the strength was durable, the stock had bursts of outperformance.”

The analysts say that skepticism will prove right one year, but probably not this one.

• CrowdStrike is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results after the closing bell Tuesday, with analysts expecting the cybersecurity provider to report rising revenues and profits.
• Options pricing suggests traders expect CrowdStrike's stock could move as much as 7% in either direction in the days following the results.

CrowdStrike is set to report earnings after the closing bell Tuesday, with traders anticipating a big move in the cybersecurity provider's stock following the results.

Options pricing suggests traders expect CrowdStrike (CRWD) stock could move as much as 7% in either direction by the end of this week. A shift of that size from Monday's close could push the shares back above $412, recovering some of their recent losses—or drag them back down to about $357.

Shares of CrowdStrike shares have plunged 18% since the year began, amid a broader rout in software stocks driven by fears of AI disruption. However several analysts have suggested they view the sell-off as overdone, and expect the company to benefit from growing AI-related risks.

A strong showing from CrowdStrike could potentially boost confidence in the stock and broader cybersecurity sector, though it may still face an uphill battle from weak sentiment surrounding software stocks.

Ahead of Tuesday's report, analysts at Jefferies said they expect CrowdStrike to top consensus estimates given strong signals from their field checks. "We only envision 'extra' positive growth revisions," they wrote.

CrowdStrike is seen reporting adjusted earnings per share of $1.10 on a nearly 23% year-over-year jump in revenue to $1.3 billion for the fourth quarter, according to estimates collected by Visible Alpha.

Wall Street analysts are largely bullish on CrowdStrike's stock. Of the 24 analysts with current ratings compiled by Visible Alpha, 21 have issued "buy" recommendations for the stock, compared to three neutral ratings. Their mean target around $542 would suggest 40% upside from Monday's close.

News of the day for March 3, 2026

Stock futures are pointing to a sharply lower open as investors assess the impact of the intensifying armed conflict in the Middle East; the U.S. and Israel launched more strikes against Iran, which retaliated by targeting oil producing facilities in the region; Iran also said it would close a key shipping lane, helping send oil prices sharply higher; Target shares are rising after it reported better-than-expected results and offered optimistic guidance; and MongoDB shares are sinking after the software firm delivered a disappointing outlook. Here's what you need to know today

Stock futures are tumbling this morning after major indexes turned in a mixed performance the prior session amid the fighting in the Middle East. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 1.4%, or 700 points, recently. S&P 500 futures also fell 1.4%, while futures linked to the tech-focused Nasdaq dropped 1.9%. Travel related stocks, including airlines and cruise operators, were sliding for the second straight day, while energy stocks continued gaining as oil prices soared amid concerns about supply disruptions owing to the war. (more on this below) Gold futures, which had surged yesterday as some investors turned to the traditional safe haven, were down 2.5% at $5,175 an ounce. Bitcoin was at $67,000, down from an overnight high of $69,500. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects interest rates on all sorts of consumer loans, rose sharply for the second day in a row, trading at 4.09%, up from 4.05% at yesterday's close and a low of around 3.95% on Friday.

Investors are keeping close tabs on developments in the Middle East as the conflict enters its fourth day. The U.S. urged Americans to leave 14 different Persian Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Israel and Qatar, The Wall Street Journal reported. The U.S. and Israel said they have destroyed Iranian missile launch sites and military airfields, while Iran continued to launch strikes at neighboring Gulf countries. The U.S. reported that its Saudi Arabian embassy was hit with a drone strike, causing minor damage. Meanwhile, Israel launched strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Oil prices continued to rise on reports that Iran said it would close the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping corridor for oil tankers. Iran has also targeted oil producing facilities in the region. West Texas International futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, were up nearly 7% at around $76 per barrel, trading at their highest levels since early last year. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, also gained about 7% and were trading at $83 a barrel, their highest level since mid-2024. A sustained increase in oil prices would affect the price of gasoline and other goods, boosting inflation and weighing on economic activity.

Target (TGT) shares are moving higher in premarket trading after the big box retailer reported strong quarterly results and offered optimistic guidance. Target posted net sales for its fiscal fourth quarter of $30.5 billion, slightly better than the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. The company’s adjusted earnings per share of $2.44 came in well ahead of analysts' average forecast of $2.16. Meanwhile, the midpoint of its fiscal 2026 profit guidance range of $7.50 to $8 per share is higher than the consensus estimate of $7.66. The company's projection of full-year net sales growth of 2% is also slightly above Wall Street expectations. Target shares, which through Monday's close were up 16% so far this year, rose nearly 4% ahead of the opening bell.

MongoDB (MDB) shares are plummeting after the database software company provided a weak earnings outlook, offsetting quarterly results that exceeded analysts' expectations. The company projected current-quarter revenue of $659 million to $664 million, in line with Wall Street expectations. However, the company's forecast of adjusted earnings per share of $1.15 to $1.19 came in below the analyst consensus of $1.21. MongoDB reported fiscal 2026 fourth quarter sales of $695 million, above analyst estimates of $670 million, while its adjusted earnings per share of $1.65 topped the consensus estimate of $1.48. MongoDB shares were down 27% in recent premarket trading. Coming into today, the stock had lost nearly a quarter of its value so far in 2026 amid weakness in the software sector.