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Netflix shares have surged after the streamer decided to walk away from buying Warner Bros. Discovery
Credit: Beata Zawrzel / NurPhoto / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• JPMorgan analysts upgraded Netflix stock to "overweight" with a $120 price target Monday, after a period of suspension while the company attempted to buy Warner Bros. Discovery.
• The analysts said they believe AI's rise could benefit more than hurt Netflix, among other strengths.

Netflix just won another bullish call on Wall Street.

JPMorgan analysts upgraded Netflix (NFLX) stock to "overweight" with a $120 price target Monday, after suspending their rating while the streamer attempted to buy Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD).

Shares of the streaming giant climbed nearly 1% to around $97 Monday, adding to their recent gains after the streamer decided to walk away from the Warner Bros. Discovery deal.

The analysts, whose target is slightly above the $115 consensus compiled by Visible Alpha, listed Netflix's streaming leadership and international subscriber growth as some of the reasons they see gains ahead. JPMorgan also suggested they see the rise of AI benefiting more than hurting the streamer, at a time when worries about the technology's impact continue to weigh on many tech stocks.

Why This Is Significant

Many previously high-flying tech stocks, particularly shares of software providers, have taken a hit lately amid worries about AI-driven disruption. The perception that Netflix's business would be less susceptible to pressure from AI could help boost sentiment around the stock.

JPMorgan said it sees Netflix as "better insulated from AI risk" than many of the other companies in the firm's coverage. "We believe storytelling and talent will remain critical moats, ultimately better insulating NFLX from AI disruption risk compared to transactional business models," they wrote.

In fact, growing AI adoption could stand to benefit Netflix by driving "improved content discovery & personalization, better advertising solutions & measurement, & ultimately reduce content production costs," they said.

Shares of Netflix have added about 4% since the year began, but are down 1% over the last 12 months.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon (pictured) warned banks could be targets of retaliatory cyberattacks out of Iran.
Credit: Krisztian Bocsi / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• It's unlikely that the war in Iran will cause "a major inflationary hit" in the U.S. unless the conflict results in a "prolonged" disruption of oil trade, said JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday.
• Dimon warned the U.S. strikes over the weekend could provoke retaliatory cyberattacks, a possibility he said his bank was prepared for.

There could be fallout from U.S. strikes on Iran over the weekend, but not the kind that will impact the average American's pocketbook, said JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday. 

“If it’s not prolonged, there’s not going to be a major inflationary hit,” said Dimon, in an appearance on CNBC Monday, of the risk war in Iran raises prices in America. 

The inflationary risk stems from oil prices. Iran over the weekend warned ships against transiting the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows. Concerns that Iran will disrupt global oil supply by closing the strait and targeting energy infrastructure across the Middle East caused West Texas Intermediate futures to soar to an 8-month high on Monday. 

Why This Is Important

Investors were already worried about resurgent inflation before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Saturday, sparking a conflict that could disrupt global oil flows and drive up fuel costs. Most experts predict a spike in oil prices, like that seen Monday, will have little impact on consumer prices if short-lived.

“This right now will increase gas prices a little bit,” said Dimon of crude oil trading on Monday. “If it went on for a long time, that would be different.”

In an interview with The New York Times on Sunday, President Donald Trump said he initially expected the campaign to last “four to five weeks.” The president said in a video address the same day the U.S. operation “will continue until all of our objectives are achieved.”  

Dimon said on Monday that, while the war may not aggravate inflation, there could still be consequences stateside. “You got to expect there’ll be cyberattacks or terrorist attacks, either here or around the world,” he said. 

Dimon noted banks like JPMorgan Chase could be desirable targets for retaliatory cyberattacks. “I would consider that one of the highest risks banks bear,” he said. “We spend a lot of money protecting ourselves from cyber. We think it’s part of our job.”

The attacks on Iran by the U.S. and Israel over the weekend sparked substantial market volatility on Monday.
Credit: Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Westwood CIO Adrian Helfert says there are good opportunities in energy sector stocks, especially because they didn't rise as much as would have been expected today given the rise in oil prices.
• Creative Planning's Jamie Battmer advises investors to "do what's within your control" and, for some, to consider this moment a wake-up call to review overall portfolio exposure.

What should investors do in the face of heightened geopolitical risk?

That was a top-of-mind question on Monday as markets digested news of the strikes on Iran that sent oil prices higher and briefly put the hurt on U.S. stocks. Though broad market indexes recovered from their steep early-session declines, a couple investment experts offered up actionable advice for investors who are looking to strategically tweak their portfolios for near-term opportunity and risk.

Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies at investment banking and financial advisory firm Westwood, said this is a moment to "buy the news" as it relates to the energy sector—a salient piece of guidance in light of President Trump's suggestion that strikes are likely to continue in the coming weeks. To Jamie Battmer, chief investment officer of independent wealth management firm Creative Planning, near-term volatility could open a window for investors to strategically re-position their portfolios, without making an active bet.

WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU

Sound long-term investment strategies advise investors to do nothing in the immediate aftermath of geopolitical events, but experts say there are a couple things folks can do in the short-term to profit from, or hedge their portfolios from escalating tensions in the Middle East

The Iran conflict could get "significantly worse" over time, and potentially lead to regional escalation, Helfert said in an interview with Investopedia Monday morning. That doesn't necessarily mean that Iran fires missiles into neighboring countries, and they react in-kind—rather, countries in the Middle East, or outside it, could take advantage of the moment to change current power dynamics, which is what occurred following similar conflicts in the past, he said.

"It's surprising that E&P (exploration and production) companies aren't up more today," Helfert said, given that higher oil and natural gas prices would appear to justify it. "There are still some investable opportunities in the energy space—even more so because they haven't responded as much as I would expect." The S&P 500 Energy Sector Index gained about 2% on Monday, while WTI futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, jumped more than 7%.

Though the oil market is oversupplied now, which would provide some buffer, the implications of supply disruption in the energy market are "underappreciated," he said.

Likewise, Morgan Stanley recommended in a report published today that investors stick with the energy sector in spite of its year-to-date rally and that they keep "a quality bias". Upstream exploration and production companies, integrated producers and refiners could get a boost from any rise in oil prices, according to Devin McDermott, the firm's equity analyst and commodities strategist. And because some 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies moves through the Strait of Hormuz, of which Iran controls a significant portion, supply disruptions could move crude prices higher, he said.

In the event that the U.S. sets policy to keep oil prices low—what the Trump administration has explicitly said it wants—natural gas and oilfield service companies may benefit over E&P, Helfert said. Regardless, E&P is "a very attractive place to be," because the group's free cash flow yield remains almost double the next closest sector, or telecom, he added. APA Corp (APA) and ConocoPhillips (COP) were the biggest gainers among E&P companies in the S&P 500 on Monday, both rising about 4%

Creative Planning's Battmer said investors should aim to "do what's in [their] control." That is a bit of tax-loss harvesting.

"Proper tax loss harvesting isn't selling something and sticking it in cash," he said in an interview with Investopedia Monday morning, explaining that investors should instead take the cash and put it to work in similar investments. For example, if the market were to sell-off meaningfully, an investor might want to sell the S&P 500 and buy the Russell 1000, two indexes that tend to move together.

Given the overall market's benign response to current events, Battmer said, investors could look for single-stock volatility—review what stocks in their portfolios are getting dinged, cap those losses, and move into peer stocks. For example, if Coke (KO) goes down, sell it and buy Pepsi (PEP). In the case of the Iran news, an investor might want to sell out of an existing position in a cruise operator to buy another.

"You're not making an active market call but you've objectively added value, because you have a tax loss that you wouldn't have otherwise had that will make future capital gains more manageable," he said.

Investors could also consider this moment a wake-up call and review their overall portfolio exposure, especially if they woke up to substantially larger hits than what the S&P 500 momentarily suffered. "If someone's portfolio is disproportionately dislocating compared to broader markets, that's when you need to say, 'Okay, I need to reconsider my portfolio, because I put myself in a vulnerable position.'"

Credit: Majid Saeedi / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• The war against Iran will push up gas prices by 10 cents to 30 cents a gallon but may only have a small impact on overall inflation and consumer spending, economists said.
• The war mainly affects the U.S. economy by threatening the passage of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint in global oil supply chains.
• The economic effect could worsen if the war drags on longer.

The war against Iran will push up energy prices but seems likely to have only a modest effect on inflation and the U.S. economy, at least so far, several economists said Monday.

Energy prices rose Monday after the U.S. and Israel launched a bombing campaign against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini and provoking a wave of retaliatory drone and missile attacks against Israel, U.S. bases in the Middle East, and Gulf states. As of Monday afternoon, crude oil futures soared roughly 7%.

Fears rose that the war would disrupt sea traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world's seaborne oil passes. Natural gas futures were up 3.25%.

Economists said the conflict's consequences on the U.S. economy could be minor if it ends soon.

"The military conflict with Iran is devastating for everyone involved, but the economic fallout has been limited, at least so far," Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics, wrote on social media Monday morning.

What This Means For The Economy

The economy seems likely to weather the shock from the war just as it has stayed resilient through other recent disruptions including tariffs and threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Whether the war causes a blip in the U.S. economy or sets off a crisis could depend on how long it lasts. As of Monday morning, the rise in oil prices was the 38th-highest spike in oil prices since 1990, smaller than the COVID-19 shock and the 2019 drone attack on Saudi oil facilities.

Gas prices are likely to rise 10 cents to 30 cents per gallon at the pump in the coming weeks, with diesel fuel rising by double that amount, Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a commentary.

However, a prolonged conflict could push oil prices significantly higher, stoking inflation, undermining consumer confidence, and dragging on economic growth, economists said.

"From a market perspective, the energy market is the primary way through which this crisis is likely to impact global markets," Kristian Ker, head of macro strategy for LPL Financial, wrote in a commentary. "Any sustained disruption to oil or natural gas flows, especially if both severe and long-lasting, has the potential to influence inflation expectations, weigh on business confidence, and elevate volatility across asset classes."

It would take a much larger increase in the price of oil to severely hurt the U.S. economy, Tom Porcelli, chief economist at Wells Fargo Economics, wrote in a commentary.

"Our model simulations of 10% and 30% sustained increases in oil prices do not come close to generating a U.S. recession or markedly changing the trajectory for core inflation," he wrote. "Absent a prolonged war and major long-term disruptions to key shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, the impact on U.S. economic growth, inflation and monetary policy should remain modest. Of course, the opposite also could be true."

The outlook could easily change if the war drags on or spreads further.

"In isolation, the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran doesn’t have a significant impact on the global economy," Ryan Sweet, chief economist at Oxford Economics. "But there's a growing risk that shocks begin to pile on top of one another, amplifying the hit. For instance, any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could be magnified by renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, or an underestimation of Iran's ability to cause a sustained disruption in the Strait could intensify the effects. The duration of the conflict and the nature of any regime change remain impossible to pin down at this point but will have a crucial bearing on the future stability of the Middle East and the path for energy prices."

The major stock indexes took just 2 hours to rebound from a sharp drop Monday morning.
Credit: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• U.S. stocks rebounded from early losses Monday morning as investors shook off concerns that conflict in the Middle East will be a major headwind for equities.
• Wall Street analysts expect an oil price spike will be short-lived and have little impact on either U.S. inflation or economic activity.

For the second time this year, U.S. military action over the weekend is ramping up the uncertainty on Wall Street to start a new week. Investors, having been here before, are taking it in stride. 

The U.S. and Israel on Saturday launched attacks that killed Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several other top political and military leaders. The U.S.-Israeli campaign continued on Monday as Iran carried out retaliatory strikes across the Middle East. President Donald Trump on Monday said combat operations in Iran could last "four to five weeks" but noted that the U.S. has the "capability to go far longer than that."

Stocks fell sharply at the open on Monday before rebounding within just a few hours. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite—down nearly 1.5% when markets opened—closed 0.4% higher, while the S&P 500 rose slightly and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2%. (Read Investopedia’s live coverage of today’s trading here.)

Why This Is Important

The U.S. and Israeli campaign against Iran heightens uncertainty about the balance of power in the Middle East, and could disrupt global oil supply in the near-term. However, the U.S. economy and stock market are expected to be relatively well insulated from oil supply shocks.

The conflict in the Middle East affects the U.S. stock market primarily through energy markets due to the region’s vast supply of crude oil. About 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway bordering Iran that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The Iranian government over the weekend said no ships would be allowed to transit the strait, and traffic through it has reportedly plummeted. 

Oil prices are a powerful driver of inflation because they affect the price drivers pay for gasoline, an unavoidable expense for the vast majority of Americans, and impact shipping costs, which businesses pass along to consumers through price adjustments.

Like stocks, oil price movements have moderated after prices spiked when trading began on Sunday evening. West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, were at around $71.50 a barrel recently, after hitting an 8-month high of about $75 Sunday night. 

The market reaction on Monday was no surprise to experts on Wall Street. “The initial market response is generally to raise risk premium on the back of higher uncertainty,” wrote Goldman Sachs analysts in a note on Sunday. But, they note, geopolitical uncertainty alone rarely pressures the market long-term. “It is likely that without sustained oil price shifts, the asset impact will begin to ‘localize,’ shifting back towards directly affected assets,” and the firm doesn’t count U.S. stocks among those assets. 

UBS analysts said on Monday their base case is for a spike in oil prices to reverse “once it becomes clear that supply disruptions are temporary, critical oil infrastructure is not destroyed, and the need for continued military action fades.”  

Granted, that scenario is far from certain. While a weakened Iranian military will likely struggle to block the Strait of Hormuz for long, Iran remains a major global oil supplier, producing nearly 5% of the world’s crude and natural gas liquids in January, according to International Energy Agency data cited by UBS. “Any potential power vacuum within Iran could put Iranian energy production at risk over the medium and long term,” the firm’s analysts wrote. 

What’s more, the Iranian regime may have a vested interest in keeping energy markets volatile. The Trump administration is attuned to the risk higher oil prices pose ahead of November’s midterm elections, in which inflation and the cost of living are expected to be top of mind for voters. Iran is also attuned to that risk, according to UBS, “and it is in its interests to prolong the conflict and disrupt energy flows to attain leverage.” 

UPDATE: This article has been updated with closing stock index levels.

AI usage may result in job loss, but it could make even more.
Credit: Mark Felix / AFP via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Artificial intelligence software may reduce job growth by 1 million to 4 million jobs each year, but create more than that, economists at Goldman Sachs said.
• Jobs whose jobs were threatened by past waves of automation, such as fitness instructors and real estate agents, have continued to grow.
• AI could create work for people using AI, as well as boost demand for service workers by raising incomes.

AI may take your job, but it may ultimately create more positions than it eliminates.

At least, that's what economists at Goldman Sachs are banking on. Researchers at the investment bank published a report Friday predicting AI would not cause a "job apocalypse." Instead, they outlined an optimistic case for the effect of artificial intelligence software on the labor market in which the technology takes over millions of jobs, but millions more are created to make up for them, keeping unemployment low.

The paper was something of a rebuttal to a viral report last weekend from Citrini Research, which outlined a scenario in which AI software replaces so many human workers that it crashes the economy. Worry over AI-related job losses contributed to the stock market's volatility last week, analysts said.

What This Means For The Economy

If Goldman Sachs economists are correct, fears about AI causing mass unemployment are overblown.

Goldman did not disagree that AI could be massively disruptive. The technology will displace anywhere from 1 million to just over 4 million jobs annually in the years ahead, Joseph Briggs, global economist for Goldman, wrote. Despite that, Goldman does not believe AI will significantly raise the unemployment rate.

"The U.S. economy creates more than 30 million gross new jobs per year, and technological change is the main driver of long-run employment growth," Briggs wrote. "We expect that these dynamics will repeat and AI will create new jobs while it destroys others. We therefore do not anticipate a job apocalypse."

AI could create jobs by improving efficiency, opening up new positions for people to use AI tools, and creating demand for service workers by boosting incomes, he wrote.

Indeed, Briggs dug through economic data and found no evidence that AI has so far caused significant job losses outside of a few specific occupations, such as software development. He also argued that just because AI can do a job doesn't mean humans won't still be needed, even for the very same role, if history is any guide.

"Employment of fitness instructors (who were replaceable in the 1980s by fitness tapes and even more so today with the proliferation of fitness apps) and real estate agents (whose role as an intermediary has largely been replaced by online platforms) has outperformed overall employment both recently and over the last 25 years," he wrote.

Overall, Goldman laid out a scenario for AI that repeats the pattern of past technological advancements, citing the research of MIT professor David Autor, who found that 60% of the jobs in 2018 did not exist in 1940.

Airlines and other travel-related stocks were down sharply Monday while energy and defense stocks surged.
Credit: CHARLY TRIBALLEAU / AFP / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Worries about developments in Iran rattled financial markets Monday, after the U.S. and Israel launched a joint attack over the weekend.
• The major U.S. equities indexes finished mixed, with travel-related stocks leading losses, while defense and oil industry stocks gained.

Worries about developments in Iran are rattling financial markets to start the week.

Early Saturday, the U.S. and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran, which retaliated against Israel and U.S. interests in several countries across the Middle East. Yesterday, President Donald Trump said the U.S. plans to continue its combat operations in Iran for several more weeks, raising concerns about a protracted conflict.

The major U.S. equities indexes finished mixed Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding 0.2%, while the S&P 500 rose less than 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 added 0.4%.

Travel-related stocks led declines on the S&P 500, while shares of American defense contractors were among the top performers. Oil and gas producers also saw shares climb along with prices of the commodities.

How This Impacts Investors' Portfolios

Investors tend to favor traditional "safe haven" assets such as gold, along with shares of defense, energy, and other security-linked sectors in the face of geopolitical conflicts.

Major Airline Shares Lose Altitude

Global airline stocks dropped Monday as numerous carriers' operations in the Middle East shut down following U.S. and Israeli bombings of Iran and Iran's retaliatory strikes. Shares of U.S. carriers Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), and American Airlines Group (AAL) dropped between 2% to 4%.

Cruise Operators and Other Travel Stocks Slide

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) was among the leading decliners in the S&P 500, with shares down nearly 11%. Rival Carnival (CCL) plunged close to 8%, and Royal Caribbean Group (RCL) slid 3%. Other travel-related stocks, including Booking Holdings (BKNG) and major hotel chains Marriott International (MAR) and Hilton Worldwide (HLT), also lost ground.

Makers of Weaponry and Defense Tech Gain

Defense contractor Northrop Grumman (NOC) saw its shares soar 6%, making it the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 Monday. Data analytics software provider Palantir (PLTR), which counts the U.S. government as a major client, saw its shares jump almost 6%. RTX (RTX) and Lockheed Martin (LMT) also rose.

Energy Stocks Follow Oil and Gas Prices Higher

West Texas Intermediate crude and natural gas prices jumped about 6% and 4%, respectively, lifting shares of major energy companies. Shares of oil giants ConocoPhillips (COP), ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Phillips 66 (PSX) all climbed. LNG supplier Venture Global (VG) soared 17% and Cheniere Energy (LNG) rose over 5%.

Read Investopedia's full coverage of Monday's trading here.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect more recent prices.

News of the day for March 2, 2026

Airlines and other travel-related stocks were down sharply in premarket trading while energy stocks surged.
Credit: Timothy A. Clary / AFP / Getty Images

Stock futures are sharply lower to start the week as investors monitor developments in the widening Middle East conflict; President Donald Trump said that military operations in Iran are likely to last several more weeks; oil prices are surging amid concerns about supply disruptions, giving energy stocks a boost; gold and silver prices are rising as investors seek safe-haven assets amid the conflict; and U.S. defense contractor stocks are also gaining in early trading. Here's what you need to know today.

Stock Futures Slide as Investors Monitor Middle East News

Stocks are sliding this morning as traders keep close tabs on the escalating conflict in the Middle East after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran over the weekend. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were down 1% recently, while those linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1.4%. The major indexes lost ground last week to wrap up a volatile month of trading fueled by AI-related concerns and economic uncertainty. Oil prices and gold prices surged in response to the news from the Middle East (more on those markets below). Bitcoin, which dropped as low as $63,000 early Saturday in the immediate aftermath of the strikes, was at $66,000 recently. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was at 3.99%, up from 3.96% at Friday's close.

Trump Sees Military Operations in Iran Lasting Several Weeks 

As the conflict between the U.S. and Iran entered its third day, President Donald Trump warned this weekend that the combat operations in Iran were likely to continue for several more weeks, The New York Times reported. This weekend’s bombing of Iran resulted in the killing of the country's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and caused damage throughout the country. It sparked a wave of retaliatory strikes by Iran against Israel and U.S. interests in several countries across the region throughout the weekend. Oil giant Saudi Aramco reported that it shut down its largest oil refinery after an Iranian missile attack set that facility on fire, while other oil production sites in the region were put on hold amid the conflict. Meanwhile, flights were suspended across the region as Iran launched attacks on the United Arab Emirates cities of Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

Conflict Sends Oil Prices Higher; Energy Stocks Rise, Airlines Fall

Oil futures surged to their highest levels in more than a year this morning, sending energy stocks sharply higher and travel-related stocks lower. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, were up 9% recently at $79.50, their highest level since January of last year. West Texas International futures, the U.S. benchmark, jumped more than 8% to $72.75 per barrel, the highest mark since last June. Oil prices are rising amid worries that Iran could strike at oil facilities in the region or interfere with oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key navigational point for oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Rising costs related to rerouting and insuring shipments are also weighing on sentiment. Energy sector stocks are getting a boost from the surge in oil prices; shares of drilling firm Occidental (OXY) were up 7%, while oil majors ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) also jumped. Airline stocks and others sensitive to fuel prices plunged this morning. Shares of American (AAL) and United (UAL) were each down more than 6%, while Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) dropped 7%.

Gold, Silver Futures Jump on Geopolitical Uncertainty

Precious metal prices are rising as investors seek safe havens amid the fresh geopolitical and economic uncertainty sparked by the conflict in the Middle East. Gold futures were up 3% at $5,400 an ounce, approaching the record high levels set in late January. Silver futures were up more than 2% at $95.40 an ounce. Precious metals like gold and silver are often used as a safe-haven asset for investors, serving as protection for portfolios during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.

Defense Stocks Rising as Conflict Enters Third Day

Shares in U.S. defense contractors are rising amid the armed conflict. Shares of RTX (RTX), formerly known as Raytheon Technologies, were up 5% recently, as were shares of aircraft maker Lockheed Martin (LMT) and those of B-2 bomber maker Northrop Grumman (NOC). Defense stocks have had a good start to the year. Through Friday's close, Lockheed Martin shares had gained 36% since the start of the year, while Northrop Grumman shares were up 27% and RTX shares had risen more than 10% over the same period.

Target shares have rallied nearly 16% since the start of the year.
Credit: Scott Olson / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Target is scheduled to report results for the fourth quarter ahead of the opening bell Tuesday, with the stock expected to make a big swing following the report.
• The retailer is projected to post a year-over-year decline in sales and profits, but analysts said investor focus will likely be on Target's outlook under new CEO Michael Fiddelke, who took over last month.

Target is slated to post fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday morning, with traders anticipating a big move in the retailer's stock following the results.

Current options pricing suggests traders expect Target (TGT) stock could move up to 8% in either direction by the end of the week. A move of that size from Friday's close could lift it to $123 or drag it back down to $104, giving up some of its recent gains. Target stock has rallied nearly 16% since the year began, amid a broader rotation in favor of consumer-focused stocks, though it's still down about 7% from a year ago as sales slumped.

The retailer is widely expected to report a year-over-year decline in sales and profits for the fourth quarter, but analysts said more attention will likely be on Target's outlook under new CEO Michael Fiddelke, who took over last month.

Why This Matters to Investors

Tuesday's earnings call will be the first for Fiddelke since assuming the CEO role, in which he could give investors more insight into what changes the retailer will make under his leadership.

UBS analysts recently said they expect focus to be on Target's forward-looking comments, with its CEO transition seen as an opportunity for Target to undertake a "fundamental reshape of many of its key processes, assets, and culture." That could also mean higher spending this year on store remodels, along with improvements to Target's supply chain and e-commerce capabilities, they said.

Target's fourth-quarter revenue is projected to come in at $30.45 billion, down slightly year-over-year, per analyst estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. Adjusted earnings per share are forecast at $2.15, down from $2.41 a year ago. Comparable store sales are seen declining 2.4%.

Amid uncertainty about the company's turnaround and leadership transition, few analysts on the Street are recommending buying the shares. Of the eight analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha, six have maintained neutral ratings, and one advises selling. Only one recommends buying the stock. Their mean target around $97 would suggest a roughly 15% decline from Friday's close.

CORRECTION—Mar. 2, 2026: This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect CEO Michael Fiddelke took the helm in February.

Major U.S. stock indexes fell last week to wrap up a rocky month of trading.
Credit: Timothy A. Clary / AFP / Getty Images

A shaky start to the week is in store for financial markets after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran over the weekend.

Oil prices surged when trading got underway Sunday evening on concerns that supplies from the Middle East could be disrupted. Stock futures slid as investors scaled back their exposure to risky assets amid the fresh dose of geopolitical and economic uncertainty sparked by developments in the Middle East. Gold, which has already hit a series of record highs in recent months, was on the rise as some investors turned to the traditional safe haven.

The bombing of Iran early Saturday killed the country's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and caused damage throughout the country. It sparked a flurry of retaliatory strikes by Iran against Israel and U.S. interests in several countries across the region throughout the weekend. President Donald Trump on Sunday said that the U.S. plans to continue its combat operations in Iran for several more weeks.

Why This Matters to You

The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has sparked fresh geopolitical and economic uncertainty that threatens to create substantial market volatility. A surge in oil prices would have an impact on what consumers pay for gasoline, and could weigh on economic activity.

"The initial market reaction for this type of event would typically see Treasury yields move lower and equities lower—mostly a risk-premium repricing," Franklin Templeton Institute analysts led by Chief Investment Strategist Stephen Dover said in a report Saturday.

Oil and natural gas prices are especially vulnerable to sharp moves higher, not only because the Middle East is such a major producer of the commodities but because of rising shipping costs.

"Oil prices are likely to gap higher, and the move may not fade quickly because the market is not only pricing barrels, but also the cost of moving barrels," said Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo. "Even without a full shutdown, higher war-risk premia, rerouting and insurance repricing can keep crude and freight costs elevated."

Even before the Iran attack, oil prices had been surging amid concerns about potential military action in the Middle East, rising about 20% since the start of the year. Brent crude oil futures, the global benchmark, were up more than 6% recently at around $77.50 per barrel, trading at their highest levels since June. WTI futures, the U.S. benchmark, also rose about 6%, to $71 per barrel.

As for the stocks that stand to be affected, Chanana said airlines and other travel and leisure names could be hurt by rising fuel costs and lower demand, while shares of shipping companies and firms exposed to global trade are also vulnerable. On the flip side, many energy stocks would benefit from higher oil prices, while defense, security and critical infrastructure providers also appear to be well-positioned.

"Gold, defense and other security-linked enablers are increasingly becoming core building blocks as geopolitical risk becomes more frequent rather than exceptional," Chanana said. "In that environment, active risk management matters, because leadership can rotate quickly as the map changes."

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 were each down about 1% in recent trading. Gold futures were up nearly 2% at $5,350 an ounce, at their highest level in more than a month. Bitcoin, which trades continuously seven days a week, dropped as low as $63,000 early Saturday in the immediate aftermath of the strikes, down from a high on Friday around $68,000, but had rebounded to $67,000 by Sunday evening.

Major U.S. stock indexes lost ground last week to cap off a rocky month of trading dominated by investor concern about AI-related disruptions, fresh uncertainty about tariffs, and the outlook for the economy and interest rates. The yield on the 10-year Treasury notes, which affects interest rates on all sorts of consumer loans, closed Friday at its lowest level since October 2024.

"Historically, geopolitics often produce an initial jump in risk premia before investors conclude the aggregate earnings hit is modest," Franklin Templeton Institute said. "We would not yet label this a clean buy-the-dip setup—duration, shipping/insurance mechanics, and the endgame matter more than the first headline."

Update: This article has been updated after initial publication to include information about futures market trading activity.