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News of the day for Nov. 25, 2025

Stock futures are little changed this morning after major indexes soared to start the holiday-shortened trading week; a flurry of economic data that could affect the outlook for interest rates is due today; Nvidia shares are sinking following a report that Meta might use Google's AI chips; tech manufacturer Sandisk is set to join the S&P 500 at the end of the week and its stock is rising; and shares of Alibaba are gaining after the Chinese e-commerce giant released its earnings report. Here's what you need to know today.

Stock futures are hovering near unchanged as investors await a barrage of economic data reports that are due to be released today. The major indexes closed sharply higher on Monday, led by a rally in tech stocks, after losing ground last week amid concerns about a possible AI bubble. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the benchmark S&P 500 were wavering between slight gains and losses, while those linked to the the tech-focused Nasdaq were down 0.1%. Bitcoin, which also jumped yesterday, was trading at $87,400 recently, down from an overnight high of of just above $89,000. Gold futures were up 0.9% at $4,130 an ounce, while crude oil futures were down slightly at around $58.60 per barrel. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects borrowing costs on a wide array of consumer loans, was at 4.03%, down from 4.04% late yesterday and trading at its lowest level in a month.

Investors are set to receive a bevy of economic reports, much of which had been delayed because of the government shutdown. Data for September on producer prices, retails sales and home prices are due this morning, as are a report on pending home sales for October and the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for November. The reports are likely to have an impact on the probability that traders are pricing in for an interest rate cut in December. The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark rate in each of its last two meetings, but officials appear to be divided on whether another cut is warranted. Still, as of Tuesday morning, traders are pricing in an 80% chance that the Fed will trim rates at its December policy meeting, up from the 50% odds priced in a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tracker. Optimism about a possible cut surged on Friday after the head of the New York Fed indicated he was open to a near-term cut.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares are sliding in premarket trading following a report that its dominance in the artificial intelligence chipmaking industry could be at risk. Tech news publication The Information reported that Facebook and Instagram parent Meta (META) is considering using AI chips designed and manufactured by Alphabet (GOOGL)-owned Google. The decision does not appear to be made yet, as Meta is making decisions for data centers that are expected to be finished in 2027, but other tech giants taking an interest in Google's specialized AI chips could create a weak point for Nvidia. Nvidia shares were down 4% this morning, after rising 2% yesterday.

Shares of Sandisk (SNDK) are moving higher Tuesday following a 13% jump Monday on the news that the the maker of the SD card and other computer storage products will be added to the S&P 500. Sandisk will replace The Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG), which is set to be acquired by Omnicom, another S&P 500 company. The changes will go into effect on Friday, along with corresponding change to a smaller index, the S&P SmallCap 600, where Sandisk will be replaced by PTC Therapeutics (PTCT). Inclusion in an index, especially a major one like the S&P 500, often provides a boost to stocks as it can introduce a company to a new audience of investors. Sandisk shares were up 3% in recent premarket trading.

Shares of Alibaba (BABA), a Chinese e-commerce company, are rising Tuesday after the company's latest quarterly results largely topped estimates. Revenue grew 5% year-over-year to 247.8 billion Chinese yuan ($34.8 billion), while earnings per share came in at CNY1.09, each well above the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. CEO Eddie Wu said the company has "entered into an investment phase to build long-term strategic value in AI technologies and infrastructure and a consumption platform integrating daily life services and e-commerce." In February, the company said it expected to spend about $52 billion in its AI and cloud infrastructure over the next three years. U.S.-listed Alibaba shares were up 3% ahead of the opening bell.

• A record number of Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles for Thanksgiving this year, according to AAA.
• Consumers may cut back on their travel spending after that, according to surveys from Deloitte.

If you're traveling this week, you'll be in good company.

A record 81.8 million Americans are expected to travel 50 miles or more for Thanksgiving, according to the American Automobile Association, likely leading to crowded roads, airports and airplanes from Tuesday onward. About 1.6 million more people are expected to travel this year than did in 2024, with nearly 90% driving to their destination, AAA said.

Some families may have decided driving was a better option, given that the Department of Transportation ordered flight traffic reduced during the government shutdown. Flight delay and cancelation rates are back to normal now that Washington, D.C., is back in business, said Ben Mutzabaugh, senior aviation editor at The Points Guy, a travel-focused website.

"I don't think we're going to see any lingering effects or hangover from the shutdown," Mutzabaugh said. "Instead what travelers should really be worried about is weather. Fortunately, the forecast for this week looks relatively good."

Storms could affect travel in the northeast and some northern states, according to AccuWeather, with the possibility of thunderstorms and snow. The areas that may see snow are adept at operating during winter weather, Mutzabaugh said, though thunderstorms in Texas and Georgia could cause issues over the next two days if they hit major hubs at inopportune times, Mutzabaugh said.

Airlines have recently relied on credit card programs, international travel, first-class tickets and other premium products to make money. If higher-income consumers curtail their vacation spending, the industry, and broader economy, may struggle.

Avoiding a hectic airport isn't the only reason Americans are driving to family dinners; many want to save money. About 31% of consumers said their finances were in worst shape than last year, with the shift most pronounced among households earnings $100,000 or more annually, according to surveys conducted this fall by Deloitte, a consulting firm.

Many are planning to stay with friends and family, rather than in hotels or vacation rentals, and take shorter trips this holiday season, Deloitte said in a report looking at travel plans from Thanksgiving to mid-January.

"The caution among high-income travelers—who typically spend more and travel farther—could ripple across airlines, hotels, and destinations reliant on premium spend," the report said.

The pullback may be less pronounced on Thanksgiving, the single busiest holiday for travel, according to AAA. And airports and traffic control teams are gearing up for what could be the busiest Thanksgiving period for flight traffic in 15 years, the Federal Aviation Administration said. (Actual bookings are down about 4.5% from last year, according to Cirium, an aviation analytics company.)

To avoid conflict, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy recorded a public service announcement urging travelers to be considerate of one another. Duffy said travelers should help pregnant women and older adults, say "please" and "thank you"—and dress with respect.

After all, Mutzbaugh said, planes will be full. "You’re going to have a lot of company at the airport."

Episode 270 of the Investopedia Express podcast with Caleb Silver (Nov. 24, 2025)

Subscribe Now: Apple Podcasts / Spotify / PlayerFM

The Risk-Off trade has taken over, bringing the pain to the biggest and most widely held stocks in the market, proving, as the legendary Jimmy Cliff sang, “The harder they come, the harder they fall.” Is this just a grown-up bull market pit stop, or a full risk reversal that could lead to a major resetting of valuations for the stock and crypto markets?

Dan Nathan of RiskReversal Advisors helps us navigate the rip tides of this recent swell in volatility. Plus, where is the big money betting on returns in 2026, and what are Wall Street’s year-end price targets?

Link for Show Notes:

• https://www.riskreversal.com

• A search giant built on its positive momentum on Monday, Nov. 24, 2025, following the release of its latest AI model, while another Big Tech name got a boost from its AI chip ambitions.
  
• Shares of Google parent Alphabet extended their recent gains in the wake of last week's Gemini 3 launch, and shares of chip suppliers such as Broadcom surged.
  
• Tesla shares drove higher after CEO Elon Musk highlighted the company's AI chip plans on social media over the weekend.
  

After worries about an AI bubble weighed on companies in the space last week, the AI trade came roaring back to start the new trading week. A search giant that drew strong reviews for its latest AI model added fuel to the rally, boosting shares of major semiconductor suppliers. Meanwhile, another member of the Magnificent 7 also soared as its CEO touted its AI chip plans.

Major U.S. equities indexes gained ground Monday amid growing expectations the Federal Reserve could be on track for another interest rate cut at its meeting in December. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 500 added 1.6%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 2.7%. See here for more reporting from Investopedia on Monday's market moves.

Shares of Google parent Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) jumped over 6% Monday to notch another all-time closing high. The tech giant's stock has been pushing higher since last week's launch of Gemini 3, its latest AI model. Salesforce (CRM) CEO Marc Benioff added to recent praise for Gemini 3 in a social media post on Sunday.

AI chipmaker Broadcom (AVGO), which counts Google as a major customer, saw its stock soar over 11% to log the best performance in the S&P 500 Monday. Shares of memory chip maker Micron Technology (MU), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and other semiconductor stocks also gained.  

Tesla (TSLA) shares rose nearly 7%. In a social media post over the weekend, CEO Elon Musk touted the electric vehicle maker's AI chip capabilities and said Tesla plans to "build chips at higher volumes ultimately than all other AI chips combined." As the company navigates competitive challenges in the EV market, Musk has been emphasizing Tesla's advances in AI, self-driving technology, and robotics.

Shares of cruise operators sank Monday. Shares of Carnival Corp. (CCL), which is set to release its latest earnings results on Dec. 19, fell close to 7%, dropping the most of any S&P 500 stock. Shares of competitors Royal Caribbean (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), both of which missed revenue forecasts in their most recent quarterly reports, also moved lower. The industry has faced a number of headwinds, including high debt levels and macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on consumer spending.

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) shares slipped about 5%. Late last week, the company reportedly submitted its takeover bid for fellow entertainment giant Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). While Paramount is said to be interested in acquiring the entirety of Warner Bros. Discovery, including its TV networks, competing suitors Netflix (NFLX) and Comcast (CMCSA) are reported to be interested primarily in the studio and streaming businesses.

• The Federal Reserve is set to hold a policy meeting Dec. 9 and 10, before several important economic reports are due to be published.
  
• Experts are speculating whether the Fed will choose to delay its meeting by a week so it can assess the job market's condition in November before deciding whether to cut rates or not.
  
• The Fed can and has delayed meetings before, to avoid scheduling conflicts and Vietnam War protests.
  

The Federal Reserve has a tough choice at its next policy meeting: cut borrowing costs to boost the job market, or keep them steady to fight inflation—but there's a third option, which is not to have a meeting at all.

The Fed's policy committee is scheduled to meet in December to decide whether to cut its key federal funds rate for a third time in as many meetings. However, crucial economic data about the health of the labor market from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was delayed by last month's government shutdown, and is now scheduled to be published after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Should the Fed delay its December policy meeting, its decision will come later but could be better informed.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other FOMC members have said the data blackout caused by the government shutdown is complicating their already difficult job of calibrating monetary policy to stabilize inflation and employment. That has experts speculating about whether the Fed will choose to simply delay its meeting by a week to get a look at the crucial employment report due Dec. 16.

"The Chair and others cited operating in a 'fog' without official government data," researchers at UBS wrote in a research note. "If the FOMC sticks to a meeting schedule set in August 2024, knowing that key data would arrive a week later, that 'fog' would become a choice."

A Fed spokesperson declined to comment on whether the central bank would postpone its meeting to assess the delayed data.

A fundamental question for policymakers is whether the economy is at greater risk of mass layoffs or a surge of inflation. Recent economic data have raised concerns about price increases and a slowdown in the job market, both largely attributed to tariffs.

If inflation is the greater threat, the Fed could keep rates higher for longer. The Fed decided at its last two meetings to cut interest rates after employers steeply cut hiring over the summer, raising concerns that a surge of unemployment could be on the way.

The Fed's policy committee is now divided about whether to prioritize fighting inflation by keeping rates higher or cutting them to support the job market. As of Monday, financial markets were pricing in an 83% chance of a rate cut in December, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

Job market data could shift that calculation strongly in one direction or another. And, as UBS's researchers noted, the Fed has delayed or added meetings before; for instance, it delayed one as recently as 1974 to accommodate an international meeting, and in 1971 to avoid disruptions from anti-war protests.

And while Fed officials have frequently said data guide their decisions, much of that data won't be available on the date their meeting is currently scheduled.

"With no hard data for October or November, the December meeting is shaping up to be more about vibes than evidence," Bob Schwartz, senior economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary.

Update, Nov. 25, 2025: This article has been updated with a response from a Federal Reserve spokesperson. It was originally published Nov. 24, 2025.

• The tech sector helped drive Monday's rally, in what could point to improving sentiment after a recent pullback. 
• Markets also got a boost from growing optimism about a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month.

Are investors ready to buy back into the AI trade?

Monday's market rally, bolstered by a number of AI investor favorites, could point to improving sentiment surrounding the sector, along with growing optimism about a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month.

After a particularly tough stretch for tech stocks in recent weeks, the sector was one of the strongest in the S&P 500 Monday, with a number of Magnificent Seven members among its biggest gainers.

Shares of Tesla (TSLA), which has increasingly shifted more of its focus on AI, soared nearly 7% to post one of the top performances in the benchmark index after CEO Elon Musk posted over the weekend that the company plans to grow its AI chips business and "build chips at higher volumes ultimately than all other AI chips combined."

Shares of Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) also surged over 6% to a closing record, extending recent gains as it won praise from some in Silicon Valley like Salesforce (CRM) CEO Marc Benioff for its newest AI model Gemini 3.

Monday's big gains could be taken a sign that investors are buying the recent dip in tech stocks. Many of the biggest names in tech are also among the most valuable companies in the world, and have an outsized impact on Americans' investment portfolios and retirement funds.

AI chipmaker Broadcom (AVGO) led the S&P 500 higher Monday, with its shares surging 11%. Other chip firms including Micron (MU) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also gained, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up close to 5%.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares climbed about 2% after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the Trump administration is considering granting the company more licenses to sell its advanced chips to companies in China.

• Investment professionals have started to talk about market downturns in a positive way, calling them "healthy" or an "opportunity."
• A 25% correction in the S&P 500 would not be the end of the world, one told Investopedia, but a 50% rally from these levels could actually be bad news.

A lot of people are talking about a market downturn lately. And they're saying it might be a good thing.

Morgan Stanley chief Ted Pick recently said the firm would "welcome the possibility" of 10%-to-15% drawdowns. Investment strategists at Charles Schwab (SCHW), Edward Jones, and Invesco have called recent market churn "healthy" and an "opportunity." The Wall Street Journal's Spencer Jakab said investors "could use a good, long bear market." And crypto influencer Anthony Pompliano called bitcoin's recent decline a "pretty healthy reset."

Their remarks are landing as some Street veterans have started to call a bubble in stock markets, suggesting among other things that the big stocks of companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) could be due for substantial haircuts—and suggesting that a return to cooler times might not be so bad.

It can seem counterintuitive. No one wants to see their portfolio shrink, right? But some experts say that after more than 15 years of seeing stocks go nowhere but up, the market could stand to take a hit—because, they say, corrections can deliver a needed behavioral check; wash out built-up leverage; and realign stock valuations with company fundamentals.

Investors can get greedy at exactly the wrong time and send markets over the edge. As bull markets age, investor expectations for future returns grow, and they then resort to juicing gains with leverage as valuation-implied expected returns dwindle.

"I would rather not live through a nasty recession and long bear market," Ritholtz Capital Management's Ben Carlson wrote recently. "But I know those risks exist. ... That’s why I diversify. I don’t use leverage in my portfolio. I don’t have concentrated positions. The name of the game in a long bear market is surviving, both mentally and financially, to live another day in the markets."

Long bull markets can induce investors to take on more and more leverage—in short, borrowing money to amplify returns—in ways that can lead to trouble, Research Affiliates CIO of Multi-Asset Strategies Jim Masturzo said in an interview with Investopedia. The new cohort of retail investors has started to get "conditioned" to easy 10% returns, he said—so much so that they have started to chase outsize gains in a "swing-for-the-fences approach," trading meme stocks and crypto.

"Once that starts to happen, if you have all this excess risk-taking and excess leverage, you're going to get a much steeper, more violent, and harder correction than if, along the way, the market is, for a lack of a better analogy, eating its vegetables," he said.

The Journal's Jakab recently observed that markets haven't seen a major bear market in a while, "creating dangerous complacency." Historically, stocks would take roughly 81 months, on average, to reach a new high following a bear market accompanied by a recession, and 21 without. In the last 15-odd years, downturns lasted less than eight months before hitting prior peaks. After the Liberation Day downturn, the S&P 500 posted a fresh high just four months later.

In light of investors' growing concerns about AI stock valuations—and others flat out calling a bubble—Ocean Park Asset Management CIO James St. Aubin would be more concerned if the S&P 500 rallied 50% from these levels than if it fell 25%.

"You don't want to see complete euphoria in the market," he said.

The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio as of October-end was 22.9, higher than its 30-year average of 17.1, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. While the index has given back some of its gains since, that figure—recently at 22.8, per MacroMicro—remains aloft.

Even if the S&P lost a quarter of its value, St. Aubin noted, it wouldn't register as what he called an "'Oh my God, this is going to destroy my financial plan' type event." The benchmark index would be around 5,000, a bit higher than the lows seen in April—and it would remind investors that markets go in both directions.

Stocks don't necessarily need to drop, according to St. Aubin. They could instead move sideways and let companies' fundamentals catch up, he said—but it's hard not to be cautious when investors are pricing those businesses to perfection without any degree of certainty that they'll pan out.

"Everything has to go right for those valuation multiples to make sense," he said. "When [the market] resets, earnings growth expectations—and there are those who say they are very optimistic—go back to something more achievable, a little bit more realistic."

• Google parent Alphabet shares are rising Monday as the tech giant extends a recent rally to new record highs.
• Solid third-quarter results in its last earnings report, Berkshire Hathaway recently revealing a bet on the company, and last week's launch of its Gemini 3 model helping to boost Alphabet stock.

Alphabet (GOOGL) stock has been on a tear. That run continued Monday.

Drivers in recent session have included a strong earnings report, a new bet on the tech giant from Warren Buffett, and the release of the Google parent's newest artificial intelligence model. The shares' runup kept rolling today, leading markets higher, with the stock recently up 6%, setting a record high above $318 earlier in the session, to kick off a holiday-shortened trading week.

Alphabet owns Google, YouTube, and several other companies that millions of Americans use every day. It is also one of the most valuable companies in the world, with a market capitalization of about $3.8 trillion on Monday, and its stock has been roaring lately.

Optimism about the company's positioning in AI looked to be lifting the stock today, with Google's newest model, Gemini 3, winning support in Silicon Valley. Salesforce (CRM) CEO Marc Benioff said in a Sunday social media post that "It feels like the world just changed, again" about his first hours using Gemini 3 after using OpenAI's ChatGPT for years.

Alphabet stock has outpaced the rest of the Magnificent Seven in recent weeks as concerns over an AI bubble have mounted, slowing the AI rally that has powered the market to record highs. Some analysts, meanwhile, have said that Gemini 3 looks to be capable of a wide range of tasks and currently give Google an advantage in the AI landscape.

The company eclipsed $100 billion in revenue in a single quarter for the first time when it reported third-quarter results late last month. Weeks later, the most recent 13-F filing from Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) revealed that the investment firm took a new position in Alphabet in the most recent quarter, worth more than $4.3 billion at the end of September.

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Monday that President Donald Trump’s proposal for a $2,000 tariff rebate would go to "people who need the money."
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested earlier this month that the proposed tariff “dividend” could be paid to families making $100,000 or less a year.

The Trump administration is continuing to push for tariff rebate checks, but it's still unclear exactly who will receive the $2,000 payments.

Although the check proposal is not yet finalized and would likely require congressional approval, the administration is still pushing for the payments. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Monday in a televised interview that the checks would likely only be distributed to low- and middle-income earners.

“[President Donald Trump is] going to constrain it to people who need the money,” Lutnick said.  “What he's trying to do is to make sure people in America understand that tariffs are their policy. It’s to make America stronger.”

Lutnick’s comments reiterate the idea that Trump’s tariff rebate plan would have an income limit, though officials haven’t offered more details about who could qualify for the proposed tariff “dividend.”

Earlier this month, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a televised interview that the administration is considering a stimulus check of $2,000 for families making $100,000 a year or less. Those income levels would be similar to the qualifications for COVID stimulus checks, said Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation.

A $2,000 stimulus check could provide financial relief to more than 123 million Americans. But the U.S. national debt is near $38 trillion, and issuing stimulus payments without offsetting the cost could further increase that debt.

“There are a lot of options here,” Bessent said in the interview. “The president is talking about a $2,000 rebate and that would be for families making less than, say, $100,000.”

The idea originated earlier this month, when Trump posted on Truth Social that a "dividend of at least $2000 a person" would be paid to "everyone." However, his post noted that “high-income” earners would not receive the payment. The payments would be funded through tariff revenues, Trump wrote.

Whether the federal government’s budget supports issuing stimulus checks to Americans has been questioned by some economists. York wrote that new tariffs are expected to raise nearly $217 billion in revenue in 2026. However, tax data for 2022 show that if the 123 million families making less than $100,000 each got the proposed stimulus, that would cost nearly $300 billion.

• President Donald Trump is reportedly preparing to unveil a healthcare proposal that would extend Affordable Care Act subsidies, sending shares of major health insurers higher Monday. 
• The plan is expected to include income limits on those who can qualify and provide funding to keep enrollees' costs down, Politico reported.

Shares of several major health insurers surged Monday following reports President Donald Trump could be set to unveil a healthcare proposal that would extend Affordable Care Act subsidies.

Molina Healthcare (MOH) shares were up over 3% in recent trading, while Centene (CNC) jumped 5%, and Oscar Health (OSCR) soared 18%. (Read our daily markets coverage here.) 

The plan, which could be unveiled as soon as today, is expected to extend ACA subsidies for about two years and could include new income limits for enrollees, along with minimum premium payments, according to Politico.

Shares of major health insurers are rising on news that the Trump administration may back a two-year subsidy extension under the ACA. Additional support for premiums and cost-sharing could help stabilize enrollment and reduce volatility in the individual market.

The White House is set to ask Congress to approve funds to reduce cost-sharing, which would lower out-of-pocket expenses for some ACA recipients, Politico reported.

Affordable Care Act insurance plan premiums were a major source of contention in the record government shutdown that ended earlier this month. Democratic lawmakers had blocked funding bills arguing to extend subsidies that lowered ACA plan premiums. The shutdown ended after Congressional Republicans agreed to discuss the premiums after the government reopened.

The White House did not respond to an Investopedia request for comment in time for publication.