Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

Traders get a break this week after a busy stretch in markets.

U.S. stock and bond markets are closed Thursday, Nov. 27, for Thanksgiving Day. Trading picks up again Friday—or Black Friday, if you prefer—but the days are shortened: The stock market closes at 1 p.m., while the bond market is set to close at 2 p.m.

The next trading breaks come around the Christmas and New Year's holidays.

The stock market will close at 1 p.m., and the bond market at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, Dec. 24, for Christmas Eve, and remain closed through the holiday on Dec. 25.

Both markets are closed on Jan. 1, 2026, for New Year's Day. Stock traders have a full day on New Year's Eve, but bond trading ends at 2 p.m. on Wednesday, Dec. 31.

• Foreign investors poured more than $300 billion into U.S. assets in August and September, easing fears of a global Treasury selloff.
• The steady demand helps keep borrowing costs lower for American households, despite trade tensions and discussions about de-dollarization.

If there were any lingering thoughts that foreign investors are dumping U.S. Treasury securities—and threatening to raise interest rates for American households—the latest data from the federal government put it to rest. 

New data from the Treasury Department showed continued appetite among foreign investors for U.S. securities, including the bonds that the Treasury issues to finance deficits. Net capital inflows were over $300 billion in August and September.

It’s the latest evidence that the fears of massive outflows from U.S. government bonds after President Donald Trump’s more-aggressive-than-expected tariff announcements in April haven’t panned out. 

“That ‘Sell America’ thing was a one-week trade back in April. Since then, it's absolutely been ‘Buy America Back,’” wrote Benjamin Schroeder, senior rates strategist at the Dutch bank ING.

Steady foreign demand for U.S. debt helps keep interest rates in check for American households, despite global economic tensions and trade uncertainty.

A wholesale dumping of U.S. Treasury bonds would risk a sharp rise in interest rates for American households, since fewer buyers of U.S. debt would mean the federal government needs to pay more interest to attract investors. 

That would translate into higher rates on consumer products such as auto loans or mortgages, plus stick Congress with a bigger interest tab to fund.

However, there is “no evidence of the sell America fears carrying through to significant selling of U.S. Treasury debt,” John Canavan, lead analyst at Oxford Economics, said in an email.

Foreign investor demand “has shown no signs of declining,” he added. Japan remains the biggest holder of Treasury debt, with holdings continuing to rise through September. He also flagged a rapid rise in Treasury holdings in Eurozone countries and stabilization in Chinese holdings of Treasurys, after the past decade’s decline.

The Treasury Department released the data for August and September this week, after a delay due to the now-resolved government shutdown.

That doesn’t mean that investors are solely focused on U.S. markets. Investors are also putting more cash in Europe, Asia and elsewhere in the globe, a trend that’s helped cause the U.S. dollar index to weaken more than 7% this year against a basket of foreign currencies.

Bonds issued by emerging market countries are seeing large gains, as are their stock markets. A roughly 27% jump in the MSCI Emerging Markets index is its strongest gain since 2009, analysts at Yardeni Research noted this week. 

“We see an opportunity to invest broadly across EMs; but be mindful of the risks and regional disparities before leaping into positions,” they wrote, noting Korea, Colombia, Greece, and South Africa and Peru as major beneficiaries. At the same time, a few Southeast Asian countries have taken a hit.

Global central banks are also diversifying the reserves they hold to facilitate international trade and their countries’ financial positions. The U.S. dollar remains the preeminent global currency, but central banks are increasingly holding more gold. It’s a trend that analysts say has supported this year’s rally in gold prices, though retail buyers have also flocked to the metal.

“Central banks are planning for gradual diversification rather than widespread de-dollarisation,” the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum wrote this year after conducting a survey of central bankers, flagging gold as a popular alternative.

Indeed, diversifying away from the U.S. dollar doesn’t necessarily imply broad-based selling of U.S. bonds, Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities, wrote in a note to clients Thursday. Foreign governments and central banks seem to be buying fewer Treasury securities, the Treasury data showed, but demand is continuing among foreign investors in the private sector.

Inflows from bond funds into the United States have actually outpaced those in Canada and Europe in recent months, Goldberg wrote. He sees next year as “shaping up as a continuation of 2025,” with U.S. Treasurys outperforming bonds in other major economies and pushing down borrowing costs for U.S. households.

The de-dollarization narrative “continues to hum along under the hood,” he wrote, and it could re-emerge when Trump announces Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s replacement next year.

“The important point to keep in mind is that as long as diversification occurs amid a rising global savings pool, investors will be able to diversify their holdings without dumping Treasuries,” Goldberg wrote.

This trading week is—Thankfully—shorter than usual. But there's still work to do.

Stock and bond markets are closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday. But the week will still bring several economic releases, along with earnings reports from companies including John Deere, Alibaba, Applied Digital and Dell Technologies.

The September report on U.S. retail sales, delayed by the government shutdown, will be released just ahead of Black Friday, one of the busiest shopping days of the year. Weekly jobless claims, pending home sales, durable-goods orders and the latest consumer confidence survey are also on time. Some data originally scheduled for this week will be delayed as government statistical agencies update their timetables to catch up on reports that were delayed during government shutdown. 

In addition to the day off Thursday, stock markets will close at 1 p.m. ET on Friday, while bond markets close at 2 p.m. ET.

Read to the bottom for our calendar of key events—and one more thing.

Investors on Monday will get an update from laboratory equipment maker Agilent, video call firm Zoom, and Symbotic, a partner of Walmart that makes AI-powered warehouse automation products.

Tuesday is also busy: Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, chipmaker Applied Digital, design software maker Autodesk, data storage provider NetApp, and cybersecurity firm Zscaler are scheduled to report earnings. Workday is expected to report quarterly earnings for the first time since activist investment group Elliott Investment Management reported taking a stake in the company. 

Dell Technologies and HP are slated to report on Tuesday after the computer and equipment makers were downgraded by analysts who see the companies struggling with higher costs for components. John Deere’s report on Wednesday is likely to provide some insight into the overall health of the construction and agriculture industries.

Delayed retail-sales results for September, due Tuesday, will show whether shoppers kept up their momentum going into the shutdown as consumers focus their attention on Black Friday and the holiday season. Market watchers will also get a look at inflation with the release of the wholesale-focused Producer Price Index for September. 

Reports from private-sector groups will provide updates on pending home sales and consumer confidence in November. Weekly jobless claims are also expected to be issued Wednesday and are likely of interest after last week’s employment report showed hiring surged. 

Several reports on the calendar this week will be rescheduled, including the first reading of third-quarter gross domestic product, the October PCE Price Index, and the advanced reports on October trade balance, retail inventories, and wholesale inventories. The delayed data could make matters more difficult for Federal Reserve officials, who are scheduled to issue their next interest rate decision on Dec. 10.

Quick Links: Recap Last Week’s Trading | Read Investopedia’s Latest News

Monday, Nov. 24

• Key Earnings: Agilent (A), Symbotic (SYM), Keysight Technology (KEYS), Zoom Communications (ZM)

Tuesday, Nov. 25

• U.S. retail sales (September)
• More Data to Watch: Producer Price Index (September), Business inventories (August), S&P Case-Shiller home price index (September), Consumer confidence (November), Pending home sales (October)
• Key Earnings: Alibaba (BABA), Analog Devices (ADI), Dell Technologies (DELL), Autodesk (ADSK), Workday (WDAY), Zscaler (ZS), NetApp (NTAP), HP (HPQ), NIO (NIO)

Wednesday, Nov. 26

• Initial jobless claims (Week ending Nov. 22)
• Other Data to Watch: Federal Reserve Beige Book, Durable-goods orders (September), Chicago Business Barometer PMI (November) 
• Key Earnings: Deere & Co. (DE), Li Auto (LI)

Thursday, Nov. 27

• Thanksgiving holiday

Friday, Nov. 28

• Stock markets close at 1 p.m. ET; Bond markets close at 2 p.m. ET
• Black Friday holiday shopping day

Wondering if ChatGPT has the answers for your questions about where to invest $10,000? Investopedia’s Sabrina Karl put the chatbot to the test. You can read more here about the results it delivered.

• JPMorgan analysts said the recent sell-off in tech stocks amid worries about an AI bubble could offer investors an opportunity to buy up shares of good companies at a discount.
• They listed 15 hardware and networking stocks exposed to AI that they believe are a bargain with "overblown" worries priced in, and strong fundamentals poised to drive gains.

Is it time to start buying tech stocks again?

JPMorgan says so, with analysts telling clients in a note Thursday—a day after Nvidia's (NVDA) blockbuster earnings hit markets—that it could be time to go "bargain hunting" among the shares of hardware and networking companies that have taken big hits in recent weeks amid worries about an AI bubble.

The analysts listed 15 stocks particularly exposed to AI that they believe represent the biggest bargains, with the most "overblown" risk already priced in, and strong fundamentals that could leave them poised for big gains.

Most of the stocks JPMorgan recommends have declined between around 10% to 30% from their highs of the last four weeks, with one down nearly 40%, and one off just about 5%. Here are the analysts' ideas.

Tech stocks have pulled back in recent weeks amid worries about an AI bubble after a big run-up earlier this year. JPMorgan is suggesting some of those worries may be overdone, leaving the shares of many businesses with strong underlying financials and healthy businesses undervalued.

PC maker Dell (DELL), which has seen its stock lose one-quarter of its value from its late October highs, was one of JPMorgan's picks. "This is despite risks into margins," JPMorgan wrote, holding that investors under-appreciate Dell's track record of effectively managing rising component prices. Analysts at Morgan Stanley double-downgraded the stock to “underweight" from “overweight” on Sunday, citing concerns about rising prices for components like memory chips.

JPMorgan highlighted server maker Arista Networks (ANET); laser systems leader Coherent (COHR)' electronics manufacturing services providers Flex (FLEX) and Jabil (JBL); and connector maker Amphenol (APH) among its other choices.

These companies, along with Dell, derive most of their AI exposure from the largest Big Tech firms that are expected to keep investing in building out their infrastructure in the near term, and are likely to have more stable financing than less established players, JPMorgan said.

Server maker Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which counts leading AI chipmaker Nvidia among its partners, was also on JPMorgan's list, along with Apple (AAPL) partner and smartphone glassmaker Corning (GLW), and optical components manufacturers Fabrinet (FN) and Lumentum (LITE).

Data storage provider Pure Storage (PSTG), high-speed networking firm Ciena (CIEN), data center supply chain solutions company Celestica (CLS), test equipment maker Teradyne (TER), and connector and sensor maker TE Connectivity (TEL) rounded out the list.

• An off-price apparel retailer benefitted from solid results and an improved outlook on Friday, Nov. 21, 2025, while losses mounted for an enterprise software giant.
  
• Ross Stores topped quarterly expectations and raised its outlook for the key holiday period, and shares of the discount retailer surged.
• Oracle shares extended their recent downtrend amid concerns about its valuation and spending needs.

Shares of an off-price apparel retailer climbed after the company touted its success in the back-to-school season and issued a rosy outlook for the critical holiday quarter. Meanwhile, a database software firm remained under pressure as questions linger about its valuation and capacity to meet lofty targets.

Major U.S. equities indexes bounced back Friday, clawing back losses posted in the prior session. The S&P 500 ended the final trading session of the week 0.9% higher. The Dow added 1.1%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.8%. See here for Investopedia's full wrap-up of Friday's major market moves. 

Shares of Ross Stores (ROST) surged 8.4% after the off-price apparel, footwear, and accessories retailer surpassed third-quarter sales and profit estimates. The company is the latest discount retailer to demonstrate it's benefiting from consumers' bargain-seeking. Ross highlighted strength in the back-to-school shopping season and raised its outlook, pointing to optimism about the crucial holiday period.

Comments from John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, helped boost expectations that policymakers might cut interest rates in December. Rate-cut optimism boosted the stocks of companies exposed to the housing market, which stand to benefit from lower mortgage rates. Shares of residential construction materials supplier Builders FirstSource (BLDR) jumped 7.1%, while homebuilders D.R. Horton (DHI) and Lennar (LEN) also notched solid gains.

Insulet (PODD) shares climbed 5.8% a day after the medical device maker held an investor day event. The manufacturer of continuous glucose monitoring devices provided a three-year sales and profit forecast that exceeded consensus expectations. Several research firms raised their price targets on Insulet stock following the event.

Oracle (ORCL) shares tumbled 5.7%, extending their recent downtrend and suffering the heaviest decline of any S&P 500 stock Friday. The database software and cloud computing giant has been rattled recently by concerns about its elevated valuation and heavy borrowing tied to its data center investments. Following Friday's drop, the stock is down around 28% over the past month.

Nvidia (NVDA) shares slid 1% as concerns about an AI bubble continued to weigh on high-flying tech stocks. Friday's decline extended the stock's 3% loss yesterday despite the AI chip giant blowing past estimates with its third-quarter earnings report. Nvidia's largest rivals, Broadcom (AVGO) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), shed 1.9% and 1.1%, respectively, on Friday. Nuclear power providers Vistra (VST) and Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG), whose stocks soared over the past year as they struck multi-billion dollar deals to power AI data centers, were also dogged by bubble fears. Their stocks fell a respective 3% and 2.2%.

• Oracle's stock has plunged since hitting an all-time high in September as the company has become a poster child for growing investor concerns that an AI bubble has formed.
• The company is enmeshed in the web of deals linking different parts of the AI complex together, which means that its pain could be felt by others.

Betting big on artificial intelligence is proving to be a double-edged sword.

Shares of Oracle (ORCL), the almost-50 year-old software company turned AI play, rallied furiously during the summer as investor enthusiasm for what could be the next transformative technology surged. Lately the company's stock has given up much of those gains, down more than 40% from its all-time high in September, more than other related plays including Meta Platforms (META), Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), whose stocks declined at least 20% from their respective peaks. Now investors are looking at Oracle as the poster child for AI-related excess.

Though concerns about AI valuations have been lingering for years, investors have recently started to pan stocks tied to the theme, weighing the amount companies are spending to develop the tech against the potential for future revenue.

Oracle has come under increased scrutiny since it raised $18 billion in new debt last month to fund its infrastructure buildout, pushing its overall debt to over $100 billion. In January, Oracle announced that it was joining forces with ChatGPT maker OpenAI and Japanese tech giant Softbank on a $500 billion project, called Stargate, to develop AI infrastructure in the U.S.

It's become increasingly difficult to view AI-related businesses in a vacuum, because of the relationships they've created between each other with multi-billion dollar deals. In that way Oracle's hurt could turn into pain for others.

Oracle's quarterly earnings report in early September blew past Wall Street expectations, sending the stock soaring 36% in one day and briefly making co-founder and Executive Chairman Larry Ellison the world's richest person. A few weeks later, however, the company announced that longtime CEO Safra Catz would be replaced as CEO, and the stock has been declining ever since.

Meanwhile, traders have started to pile into Oracle's credit-default swaps as a way to both hedge and bet against the AI trade, according to a recently published story by Bloomberg. Credit default swaps are derivative contracts that serve as a kind of insurance against the possibility that a borrower will default on its debt obligations.

Consensus capital expenditures for AI hyperscalers, including Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), Meta, Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle have risen to $533 billion now from $467 billion at the start of the third-quarter earnings season, according to Goldman Sachs.

Oracle is also a major part of the web of deals between AI software makers, chip companies and cloud operators, whose circular deals—possibly indicating more self-dealing than representative of organic demand—have raised eyebrows. The Wall Street Journal reported that a large chunk of the outsize revenue backlog unveiled in its September earnings report was from an OpenAI deal.

"The feedback loops created by the revenue and equity relationships between some of the largest U.S. public companies and smaller AI firms increase the risk that stress in one part of the AI ecosystem affects investors across the AI complex," Goldman analysts led by Ryan Hammond said in a report published earlier this week.

• Homebuilder stocks jumped Friday after comments from a Federal Reserve official boosted hopes of an interest rate cut in December. 
• A drop in the central bank's benchmark rate could lead to lower mortgage rates, which would help homebuyers and drive more revenue for homebuilders.

Builders are getting a big boost from rising expectations of a rate cut next month.

Homebuilder stocks were among some the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 Friday, after Federal Reserve Bank of New York president John Williams said at a conference that there is "room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate," adding fuel to hopes of a rate cut when the Fed next meets on Dec. 9 and 10.

Traders are now pricing in a roughly 70% chance of a rate cut next month following the comments, up from 39% just yesterday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, which is based on pricing of Fed funds rate futures contracts.

Shares of Builders FirstSource (BLDR), D.R. Horton (DHI), and KB Home (KBH) each surged about 7% Friday as the odds of a cut rose, while Lennar (LEN) added close to 6%. PulteGroup (PHM) shares climbed just over 5%. Other stocks connected to real estate also gained, including Zillow Group (Z) and mortgage broker Rocket Companies (RKT).

The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate impacts how much it costs businesses to borrow money, which in turn can impact rates that consumers pay on auto loans, mortgages, and even credit cards. A lower Fed funds rate could lead to lower mortgage rates, which could make homes more affordable for buyers.

Still, many of those stocks, including Builders FirstSource, KB Home, Lennar, and Zillow, remained in negative territory for 2025. The housing market has been sluggish this year as mortgage rates have remained elevated, leaving many buyers waiting on the sidelines for rates to drop, while others who bought a home in the years when rates were lower are more likely to stay put in order to hold on to their rate.

The prospect of a rate cut next month would be a boon for homebuilders and other companies tied to the real estate market, as it would mean lower mortgage rates, which could help stimulate demand from homebuyers, driving up revenues for companies that make and sell homes.

• Federal Reserve officials are sharply divided over whether to cut interest rates in December, with some citing cooling labor data and others warning inflation remains too high.
• The split has fueled volatility in markets, with investors’ expectations for a December rate cut swinging wildly as new data and Fed comments emerge.

Markets are quite confused about whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, as Fed officials’ sharp divide on that question plays out in public. 

One camp argues lowering interest rates next month would help a job market that’s showing signs of weakening. The other argues inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target and sees more signs of economic strength.

Rather than clarify the debate, the return of missing economics data that went dark during the shutdown is equipping each side with more information. Each camp is making their leanings clear as the Fed’s Dec. 9-10 meeting approaches.

Investors face heightened volatility as the Fed’s next move grows uncertain. Whether policymakers cut or hold will shape borrowing costs, market sentiment, and the 2026 outlook for growth and inflation.

“It’s striking that both sides of the debate have high-conviction compelling arguments—cut based on cooling labor conditions or hold because of lingering inflation risks,” Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients.

The long-delayed September report is a “perfect Rorschach test” for Fed officials, Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a note to clients. That is, their reading of the September report will likely depend on which camp they fall into. 

Those on the hawkish end will likely point to the 119,000 jobs added in September as a sign that the economy isn’t tanking. Those on the dovish end may instead point to the uptick in the unemployment rate, which rose to 4.4% from 4.3% and is at its highest level since October 2021.

The public debate has prompted a wild ride in markets’ views of Fed policy. Investor views of a near-certain cut in December got dampened on Oct. 29, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell said a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion.” 

By Thursday, traders saw a rate cut as unlikely. The probability of a Fed cut had dropped to 39%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which uses futures market pricing to gauge investors’ views on Fed meetings.

On Friday, however, the chances of a rate cut swung back up and are now over 70%. The catalyst: a speech from New York Fed President John Williams, who put himself in the dovish camp by saying he sees “room for a further adjustment in the near term.”

Williams’ voice is key since the New York Fed leader is highly influential at FOMC meetings. He framed his view within the two goals that Congress gave the Fed: ensure maximum employment and stable prices. 

The Fed’s progress toward bringing down inflation back to its 2% target has “temporarily stalled,” he acknowledged, with inflation closer to 3% today. 

But the “upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat,” he said, forecasting that inflation will get back to 2% in 2027. 

While tariffs may continue driving prices up somewhat, there aren’t signs of “second-round” effects or “broad-based supply chain bottlenecks” that could lead to a cycle of rising prices, he said.

While it’s “imperative to restore inflation to our 2% longer-run goal,” Williams said, it’s equally important to avoid “creating undue risks to our maximum employment goal” by keeping rates high.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said this week—before September’s jobs report—that he backs a December rate cut due to weakening job conditions. He flagged rising unemployment claims in state-level data and sluggish private sector job data for October.

“My focus is on the labor market, and after months of weakening, it is unlikely that the September jobs report later this week or any other data in the next few weeks would change my view that another cut is in order,” he said.

Other Fed officials have seemed closer to favoring staying on hold, flagging inflation as a continued risk.

“I am concerned that we’re seeing inflation still at around 3% and our target is 2%,” Fed Governor Michael Barr said at an event Thursday, according to Bloomberg News. “So we need to be careful and cautious now about monetary policy, because we want to make sure that we’re achieving both sides of our mandate.”

Progress toward inflation returning to 2% “seems to have stalled out,” Chicago Fed President  Austan Goolsbee said at a Chartered Financial Analyst Society of Indianapolis event.

“That makes me a little uneasy,” Goolsbee said.

One of the Fed’s more hawkish voices, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, said on Thursday that inflation has been above the Fed’s 2% goal for more than four years.

“Lowering interest rates to support the labor market risks prolonging this period of elevated inflation, and it could also encourage risk-taking in financial markets,” Hammack said.

There is still a bit more data coming between now and Dec. 10, with a delayed retail sales report for September seen as a key gauge of consumer spending.

“I expect to learn a lot between now and the next meeting,” Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said on Thursday.

Paulson said she’s “a little more worried about the labor market than I am about inflation,” but kept her options open, noting she’s “approaching the December FOMC cautiously.”

The Fed’s picture of the economy will also be less complete than usual, given that the official reports for jobs and inflation in October are now canceled. November’s jobs report will also come out on Dec. 16, later than usual and after the Fed’s Dec. 9-10 meeting.

Given that the September jobs report was stronger than expected, the Fed is likely to opt for a “dovish hold in December,” Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients. 

That means keeping rates unchanged in December—but signaling more cuts are coming in 2026.

• Tech stocks slumped this week as investors' skepticism about the AI rally overpowered another strong earnings report from Nvidia, though many experts are optimistic that earnings growth will bring investors back.
• Federal Reserve officials, meanwhile, are deeply divided about what to do at their policy meeting next month, adding uncertainty to an already anxious market.

The stock market is in limbo. It could be there for a while.

After weeks of softness in tech stocks, bulls were hoping a blowout earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA) would revive the faltering AI trade. They got strong earnings—but not the payout. Stocks sold off Thursday as the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), or the “Fear Index,” jumped to its highest level since April’s tariff debacle. 

Stocks rebounded on Friday, but many of Wall Street's favorite AI stocks—Nvidia, Broadcom (AVGO), Palantir (PLTR), Oracle (ORCL), and Vistra (VST)—fell yet again, indicating AI sentiment remains in the dumps. And market experts are now trying to navigate the road ahead after a week of confusing signals and volatile action.

Tech stocks have fueled the bull market of the past three years, and will have a big impact on market sentiment and stock performance going forward. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next month will also be pivotal in setting a direction for stocks.

The AI rally has been imperiled before. Tech stocks slumped in July 2024 amid concerns about over-investing in AI, but they found their footing and moved higher through the end of the year. Overspending fears resurfaced in January when Chinese startup DeepSeek burst onto the scene. That setback, too, was short-lived.

“We are going through another ‘DeepSeek Moment,’” wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, one of Wall Street’s ardent tech bulls, on Friday. Ives compared today’s AI bubble debate to historical examples of tech skeptics getting it wrong, like dismissals of the iPhone in 2008 and Microsoft’s pivot to cloud computing in 2014.

"This AI Revolution is just beginning today," he wrote. "We believe tech stocks and the AI winners should be bought given our view this is Year 3 of what will be a 10-year cycle."

“The big risk to the tech sector—and thus the broader equity market—is not a sudden collapse in valuations,” wrote Barclays analyst Ajay Rajadhyaksha on Thursday. “It is that earnings—which have been on [an] absolute roll over the last 3 years—suddenly start to disappoint, which then sparks an exodus.”

Rajadhyaksha doesn’t think such an outcome is likely, though he concedes there are AI-related risks that investors should keep an eye on. Tech companies are increasingly turning to credit markets to finance their AI investments, which, until recently, have been funded primarily by cash flows. That increases the wider economy’s exposure to the AI boom, and adds to tech's interest-rate sensitivity. Power constraints, he said, could also force a slowdown in AI spending, possibly dealing a blow to “picks and shovels” suppliers like Nvidia.

“A major change in market leadership appears unlikely absent a significant dislocation in the macro environment,” concludes Rajadhyaksha.

The Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting could be another overhang that keeps stocks wayward in the next few weeks. Policymakers appear deeply divided on how aggressively to lower interest rates. Some see in signs of a weakening labor market good reason to cut rates despite evidence inflation is ticking higher. Their hawkish counterparts say economic uncertainty urges caution. The government shutdown has left behind gaps in official data. 

Yesterday’s September jobs report—the last snapshot of the labor market Fed officials will see before their meeting begins Dec. 9—sent conflicting signals. The U.S. added more jobs than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in four years. Deutsche Bank economists on Thursday called the report a Rorschach test that gives each camp within the Fed plenty of ammunition to make its case. 

Experts say that the Fed's rate decisions could be decisive in renewing or extinguishing the AI rally. Rate cuts, they argue, would likely fuel the rally by injecting liquidity into the market. If rates remain where they are, tech stocks could struggle to regain their momentum.

Investors are highly uncertain about the Fed’s next steps. Futures market data has the odds of a December rate cut, considered a near certainty a month ago, below 40% yesterday. Those odds jumped back to 70% on Friday after one official indicated he was open to cutting next month.

“In a vacuum of unclear rate and labor-market signals, markets are prone to exaggerated volatility, with short-term trading dominated by sentiment and technical structure,” wrote Bitunix analysts.

• Intuit beat profit and sales estimates with its latest quarterly results thanks to demand for its AI products.
• The maker of QuickBooks, TurboTax and MailChimp said its AI platform is helping mid-sized businesses improve efficiency.

Intuit (INTU) shares jumped Friday, one day after the maker of accounting software reported better-than-expected results as its AI tools boost demand from mid-market businesses.

The company behind QuickBooks, TurboTax and MailChimp posted first-quarter fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of $3.34 per share, 25 cents more than analysts from Visible Alpha were looking for. Revenue grew 18% to $3.89 billion, also topping estimates.

Intuit is seeing stronger demand as it leans deeper into artificial intelligence tools that streamline accounting and payments. The company’s AI tools are reducing workloads and speeding up customer cash flow, leading to higher revenue for its QuickBooks platform.

Most of the revenue came from the Global Business Solutions division, which recorded an 18% increase to $2.99 billion. QuickBooks Online Accounting revenue climbed 25% to $1.21 billion.

CEO Sasan Goodarzi said the company continued “to execute on our AI-driven expert platform strategy.” In a call with analysts, Goodarzi said that Intuit’s Accounting Agent “is saving customers up to 12 hours a month and our Payments Agent helps customers get paid on average five days faster.”

Intuit will soon launch "more-advanced capacity planning, productivity and collaboration capabilities, and over time, firms can integrate to other functions," he said. Those comments came from a transcript provided by AlphaSense.

Intuit shares were up 6% in recent trading. The stock came into today's session up about 1% since the start of the year, significantly lagging the performance of major stock indexes.