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• President Donald Trump acknowledged that the U.S. and China are in a trade war this week.
  
• The U.S. has threatened to raise tariffs on China to high levels, while China has threatened to cut off rare earth minerals crucial to U.S. industries.
  
• Trump and his Chinese counterpart are set to meet in South Korea at the end of the month and could defuse the escalating tensions.
  

The war of words between U.S. and Chinese leaders heated up ahead of an expected meeting, even as both sides left room for compromise.

Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office Thursday, President Donald Trump acknowledged that back-and-forth trade restrictions the two countries have imposed on one another amounted to a "trade war."

For its part, a Chinese official accused the U.S. of stoking "unnecessary misunderstanding and panic" about China's threat to impose export controls on rare earth minerals crucial to industries in the U.S. and elsewhere, according to the Global Times, a Chinese state newspaper.

The rhetoric has kept tensions high ahead of a trade summit in South Korea on Oct. 31, when Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping are expected to meet. Another important deadline comes on Nov. 10, when the latest in a series of 90-day tariff truces with China expires, and would send the U.S. tariff rate on Chinese products to triple digits.

Should the U.S. and China fail to reach a compromise, the U.S. could face what one economist described as a COVID-19 level shock, with economic growth slowing and inflation soaring.

Trump did indicate he still wants to make a deal with China, leaving open the possibility of the dispute being defused. In a Fox Business interview Friday, he said the triple-digit tariffs he threatened to impose on China were probably "not sustainable," but said they may be put in place anyway. 

The meeting could be a turning point in an on-and-off trade dispute between the world's two largest economies that heated up after Trump took office for a second time in January. The U.S. has threatened to impose tariffs as high as 157% on Chinese products, a virtual embargo, while China has threatened to restrict supplies of rare earths that are critical to things like electric cars and computer chips. Should either side follow through on those threats, both economies could suffer heavily. Stocks fell at the end of last week as the trade war heated up, and the S&P 500 had yet to regain its losses Friday.

"Relations between the two largest economies remains tense as both sides have continued to exchange jabs at one another over China’s rare earth controls and U.S. threats to drastically ramp up tariff rates," Jim Reid, head of macro and thematic research at Deutsche Bank wrote in a commentary. "While the proposed meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the APEC Summit in South Korea at the end of the month appears to still be on track, it seems to be giving global equity markets an extra shot of caution on Friday."

• Shares of a major credit card issuer surged on Friday, Oct. 17, 2025, as spending by wealthy cardholders helped drive record revenues, while a retreat in gold prices pressured a top miner.
  
• American Express shares climbed to a record high after the company posted strong results, bolstered by a refresh of its high-end credit cards and strong spending by affluent consumers.
• Gold prices fell from record levels, weighing on shares of the world's largest gold producer.

Shares of a major credit card issuer moved higher as a refresh of high-end cards and strong spending among affluent customers helped drive a quarterly earnings beat. Meanwhile, gold prices retreated from their recent highs, exerting pressuring on a major mining company.

Major U.S. equities indexes finished higher to close out a volatile trading week as investors shook off concerns about bad loans at regional banks and U.S.-China trade tensions. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow each rose 0.5% Friday to post gains for the week. See here for more coverage from Investopedia of Friday's market moves.

Kenvue (KVUE) stock bounced back on Friday, clawing back some of the heavy losses posted in the prior session after a lawsuit in the U.K. claimed that baby powder made by the consumer health products company was linked to cancer. Shares of the Band-Aid, Listerine, and Neutrogena parent company ended 8.4% higher, logging the top daily performance in the S&P 500.

American Express (AXP) shares surged 7.3% to close at an all-time high after the company beat quarterly earnings estimates, with revenue climbing 11% year-over-year to a record $18.43 billion. Amex benefitted from the launch of updated high-end credit cards and strong spending trends among its affluent client base. Shares of fellow card issuer Capital One Financial (COF) gained 4% Friday, partly recovering from a downtick the prior day amid pressure on the financial sector.

Gilead Sciences (GILD) shares added 4.2% following a price target boost by analysts at Goldman Sachs. Earlier this week, the biotechnology company presented positive results from a Phase 3 study of its cancer treatment Trodelvy.

Truist Financial (TFC) also reported better-than-expected results for the third quarter, and shares of the financial services firm rose 3.7%. An uptick in fee income, boosted by strength in the wealth management and mortgage banking businesses, helped drive Truist's strong performance.

Gold prices retreated from record levels, and shares of Newmont (NEM), the world's largest gold producer, dropped 7.6% Friday. The stock had reached an all-time high Thursday following a rally in parallel with the precious metal's push higher.

Shares of Oracle (ORCL) sank close to 7%. Although the enterprise software giant provided targets for robust sales and profit growth through fiscal 2030, some Wall Street analysts raised concerns about a lack of details on Oracle's capital expenditure plans, as well as the company's heavy reliance on revenue from OpenAI and other major customers.

Moderna (MRNA) shares lost 4.2%. Some analysts have voiced worries about declining revenue from the company's COVID-19 vaccines, as well as the company's limited headway on diversifying into other products.

• Regional bank stocks rebounded on Friday after slumping Thursday when two lenders said they were suing borrowers, adding to concerns about unseen risks in the banking system.
• Jefferies analysts called Thursday's sell-off "overdone" and judged the fraud claims that precipitated the slump "idiosyncratic issues."
• Several bank executives said on earnings calls Friday that they were confident in the integrity of their non-bank lending portfolios.

Regional bank stocks rose on Friday, rebounding from a sell-off yesterday as investors assessed the fallout from recent bankruptcies and fraud allegations that have raised concerns about lending standards. 

The KBW Regional Banking Index gained 1.7% today after slumping 6% on Thursday, when lenders Zions Bancorp (ZION) and Western Alliance (WAL) revealed they had sued borrowers accused of fraud, amplifying investor anxiety about the health of bank loan portfolios. Zions shares rose nearly 6% today, bouncing back from yesterday's 13% slide, while Western Alliance shares added 3%.

Concerns about lending practices first surfaced early last month when subprime lender Tricolor declared bankruptcy amid allegations of fraud. The bankruptcy of car parts maker First Brands, which is also accused of misrepresenting its finances, later in the month added to concerns about hidden risk on lenders’ books. Those bankruptcies have affected lenders big and small, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and regional lender Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), both of which took charges of $170 million related to Tricolor.

Investors have grown concerned in recent weeks that banks underestimate their exposure to risky lending practices outside of the traditional banking system. At least in the near-term, bank stocks will reflect Wall Street's best estimate of the severity of the issue.

“We believe the stock reactions today are overdone, given the exposures as a percentage of [tangible common equity] are low,” wrote Jefferies analysts in a note on Thursday. Zions yesterday said its exposure totaled $60 million, about 1% of its available capital, according to Jefferies. Western Alliance said it believed existing collateral would cover its $100 million in affected loans.

Jefferies analysts don’t believe recent turmoil is the canary in the coal mine that some suspect. “While the heightened scrutiny around credit quality is top of mind, our base case frames these as idiosyncratic issues rather than a systemic issue,” the analysts wrote.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, on the other hand, warned there could be more turmoil ahead. “I probably shouldn’t say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more,” Dimon said on Tuesday.

Comments from bank executives in this week’s quarterly earnings reports have also helped to allay some fears. 

“We feel good about our exposures to non-depository financial institutions,” said John Turner, CEO of Regions Financial (RF), referring to the type of financial firm whose dealings with banks have come under scrutiny amid the spate of bankruptcies. Turner said much of Regions’ NDFI exposure is in its REIT portfolio, which “[is] very low leverage and has performed really well.”

“We haven’t been exposed to the headline credits that you've seen in the last few days,” said John Ciulla, CEO of Webster Financial (WBS), on Friday morning. “We're very confident that the underwriting we have in there is extremely solid and we're not in any sort of other esoteric risk classes,” he added, referring to the firm’s non-bank lending. 

Lending to NDFIs—firms, sometimes called non-bank financial institutions, that offer financial services like lending and investment management but do not take deposits, and thus aren't regulated as banks—has grown significantly over the last decade, especially at America’s largest lenders.

NDFI loans from large banks increased by 56% between 2019 and 2024, more than double the rate of total loan growth over that period, according to the Federal Reserve. At the end of 2024, NDFIs owed big banks about $2.3 trillion.

This year, the Fed included in its annual bank stress test an assessment of the risks posed by NDFI lending. The central bank estimated that loan losses at the largest banks would total $490 billion over two years if credit quality deteriorated across their NDFI portfolios. 

While that’s a large loss, the Fed concluded “that large banks are generally well-positioned to withstand significant additional credit and liquidity stresses to major categories of NBFI lending exposures.”

• Consumers will pay $592 billion for President Donald Trump's import taxes by the end of 2025, according to a recent analysis.
  
• Companies are passing through higher trade costs to consumers, and that's pushing up the cost of living, according to separate reports by Goldman Sachs and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  

U.S. consumers are footing much of the bill for tariffs, and are likely to pick up an increasing share of the import taxes in the coming months, several separate economic analyses said this week. 

President Donald Trump and White House officials have denied that his import taxes are pushing up prices. But for many economists, the question is not whether companies are passing the cost of import taxes on to U.S. consumers, but how much. So far, U.S. companies have footed some of the bill, but are passing an increasing share of the cost along to their customers, several analyses have indicated.

Inflation has accelerated since April when Trump announced a sharp increase in tariff rates. The Consumer Price Index is expected to have risen 3.1% over the year in September, its highest since May 2024.

Tariffs are a major reason behind the inflation uptick, according to several recent analyses.

Tariffs have had a significant effect on the economy as a whole as well as personal finances, with more impact to come as prices are expected to continue rising in the coming months.

Trump's sprawling import taxes, which affect products from most countries in the world, are on track to cost companies $1.2 trillion this year so far, S&P Global said in a white paper this week, in what senior research analyst Drew Bowers called a "conservative" estimate. Of that, $592 billion is being passed on to consumers via higher prices, Bowers calculated.

Economists at Goldman Sachs reached similar conclusions in a new analysis this week. They estimate that customers are paying 55% of the tariffs. They expect consumers' share of the costs could grow to as much as 70% next year.

In a separate analysis, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis estimated that the annual inflation rate, as measured by "core" Personal Consumption Expenditures excluding food and energy, was about 0.4 percentage points higher in August because of the tariffs. Core PCE inflation was 2.9% in August, but would have been 2.5% with no tariffs in place, they said.

• Bitcoin is falling toward the $100,000 level following last weekend's rout in the digital assets market.
• Without the support of the safe-haven narrative, crypto market experts are looking for other reasons to stay optimistic about the near term for bitcoin.

So much for "Uptober."

Bitcoin is close to giving up all of this year's gains, dragged lower since renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China sparked a reversal in the digital assets market. The world's largest cryptocurrency (BTCUSD) has declined about 7% since Monday, according to research platform Messari.

The drag in bitcoin prices is reflected in the shares of stocks linked to it. Bitcoin treasury Strategy (MSTR), crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) and stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) are all down at least 5% in the past five days. At around $107,000, bitcoin's 14% year-to-date return is now roughly in line with the S&P 500's.

Trade worries last week sparked a historic purge in the crypto market, upending the bitcoin-as-safe-haven narrative and severing the link between it and gold, whose recent climb to record highs is driving American consumers to cash in. Gold, Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni wrote earlier this week, "is the new bitcoin."

Trade tensions have taken some of the air out of bitcoin's sales, pulling the price of the cryptocurrency back from recent record highs. That, and a continued move higher in gold, could be interpreted as a sign that investors once again see it more as a risk asset than a hedge. Still, some crypto experts see reasons why the climb could start again.

Bitcoin has pulled back from recent record highs, which some observers note is not uncommon: Some past highs have also been followed by substantial pullbacks.

Still, with bitcoin seemingly once again viewed more like a risk asset than a safe haven, experts are considering crypto-specific factors to project the next move for prices. Several remain upbeat.

Ben Cowen, founder and chief of quantitative market analysis provider Into the Cryptoverse, is eyeing technical indicators such as bitcoin's 50-week moving average, which is currently around $100,000. He expects another top in bitcoin in the last few months of the year before a bear market in 2026.

"There's still a reason to be optimistic as long as bitcoin is holding above the 50-week moving average," said Cowen in a recent episode of the Milk Road podcast.

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest and Fidelity—which are behind the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) and the Fidelity Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), respectively—recently published quarterly reports for the digital asset, highlighting possible near-term positives.

Ark's report pointed toward indicators—public companies boosted their holdings by 40% this year, and crypto derivatives markets are healthy—it sees as bullish for bitcoin. "Although short-term volatility is always possible, the confluence of strong on-chain metrics, institutional demand, and macroeconomic support suggests continued upside potential," Fidelity wrote."

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management, issuer of the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), expects the crypto market to shrug off the latest rout because no major crypto player keeled over, blockchains handled the stress test with no issues, and professional investors have "largely ignored" it.

"Crypto may be a little jittery in the near term," Hougan wrote.

• Oracle is one of the day's biggest S&P 500 decliners, with the shares giving back some of the big gains they posted in September.
• Back then, an upbeat outlook pulled the shares higher. Now it looks like investors are looking under the hood a bit more closely.

Oracle gave the AI trade a big shot in the arm last month. That shot is a little bit of a sore spot these days.

Shares of the cloud computing and software giant were recently off about 7%, making them one of the day's biggest S&P 500 decliners. That still has Oracle (ORCL) up some 75% this year, but at around $292 they're about 11% off the September highs logged after the company reported big quarterly results and an impressive outlook—along with a stock pop that marked its biggest jump since the 1990s, briefly making Larry Ellison the world's richest person.

Today's slide suggests that investors heard things they didn't like during a presentation yesterday at which executives shared revenue and earnings per share targets for fiscal 2030 of $225 billion and $21, respectively, both pointing toward substantial growth through the rest of the decade.

So what was it? Wall Street analysts—even the bullish ones, which according to Visible Alpha is most of them—offered a few suggestions.

Renewed trade concerns have taken air out of some high-flying stocks in recent days as investors deal with a fresh bout of volatility, and a pullback in shares of Oracle likely can't be completely divorced from that context. But the downbeat investor reaction to a management presentation this week may also indicate a shift back to wait-and-see mode after a September climb.

Deutsche Bank analysts said some investors may have hoped for more information about the company's capital expenditure plans. Jefferies noted worries about a reliance on revenue from OpenAI. UBS made similar comments about the importance of big Oracle customers while observing that the profit outlook "likely landed short of some investor expectations."

The takeaway may be no more complex than a decision by investors that the stock, which remains roughly 30% above its lowest September finish, had climbed enough for now pending results that back up Oracle's vision. Visible Alpha's mean price target is around $340, representing a 9% premium to Thursday's close.

"Though Oracle is well positioned as a major beneficiary of the AI platform shift, shares are likely to remain range-bound in the near term as the company focuses on building out capacity to meet its targets," William Blair analysts wrote today.

• Gold price forecasters have had trouble keeping pace with this year's dizzying rally.
• Some now see gold reaching the $5,000-$6,000 per ounce range next year.
• Myriad factors continue underpinning demand for gold, including economic uncertainty and stock market volatility.

In late March, Goldman Sachs predicted the price of gold would hit $3,300 per troy ounce at the end of the year.

It took less than a month to reach that level. Since then, gold has continued climbing previously unscalable heights—and forecasters have had trouble keeping pace.

The precious metal's price now reaches new all-time highs almost daily. Early last week, Goldman raised its end-of-year forecast to $4,900 per ounce from $4,300 previously. The increase occurred just in time: Gold eclipsed $4,300 Thursday for the first time, pushing its year-to-date gain to roughly 65%.

Gold's biggest rally in a half-century begs the obvious question: Just how high can its price go?

Investors often turn to precious metals during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, and gold is benefiting at the moment from concerns about the U.S. government shutdown, global trade tension and stock market volatility, among other factors. With gold prices expected to continue rising, some experts have recommended that investors increase the allocation of gold in their portfolios.

In addition to Goldman's new forecast, HSBC sees gold hitting $5,000 per ounce in 2026. Bank of America, noting that a record $34 billion has flowed into gold in just the past 10 weeks, is even more bullish, projecting gold will peak at $6,000 per ounce by spring.

"Momentum in gold has been unrelenting," LPL said in a research note, citing a 3-to-1 ratio of upside to downside days for the metal since the end of August. "The latest leg higher has been underpinned by the growing uncertainty over the U.S. government shutdown and fear-of-missing out flows into physical gold ETFs."

One of the factors playing into gold's surge is the so-called debasement trade. Global investors concerned about high levels of government debt increasingly have opted for gold and other hard assets in favor of government bonds and investments in the U.S. dollar.

UBS says some investors have turned to gold in a global environment marked by trade tension, economic uncertainty and some concern that stocks might be overvalued. In addition to its role as a classic hedge against risk, UBS said gold's "low correlation with equities and bonds, especially during periods of market stress, also makes it a valuable diversifier."

Finally, expectations the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates, even as inflation remains higher than its 2% target, should "further undermine the appeal of the U.S. dollar and therefore boost investment flows into bullion," UBS said.

Amid the weakness in the dollar, more global central banks have turned to gold to store their reserves this year. Central bank purchases increased after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022; Goldman says ETF purchases and central bank demand "are sticky in our pricing framework."

Retail interest in physical gold has boosted demand, too. Owning gold bars and gold jewelry has a long cultural history, particularly in India and other parts of Asia. Many buyers in that region have rushed to secure purchases as prices escalate.

UBS forecasts overall global gold demand this year at 4,850 metric tons, which would mark the highest level since 2011. It reported that purchases from the Perth, Australia, Mint, a prime source for Asian buyers, increased 21% in September from August.

Of course, any strong asset rally carries with it at least some concern. The World Gold Council, despite its stance that "gold's strategic foundation remains robust," nonetheless said short-term scenarios exist that could cause some gold investors to cash in on the profits they've made this year.

For example, a resolution of the U.S. government shutdown and other geopolitical tensions could cause gold investors to look elsewhere. This year's rapid increase in prices also could dampen retail demand, and portfolio allocations to gold may have neared a point that requires rebalancing to other assets.

• Federal Reserve officials began cutting interest rates in September, but the path ahead is somewhat unclear.
• Central bankers are looking for a fed funds rate that neither restricts borrowing and spending nor stimulates the economy.
  

The Federal Reserve is cutting rates again, but how will officials know when enough is enough?

It’s a question that central bankers are debating—and the answer could make it more expensive to borrow on anything from cars to houses for years to come. At its core, the question is whether the era of low interest rates following the 2008 financial crisis has come to an end.

Fed officials are partly guided by the idea that there’s an interest rate at which Fed policy has a neutral effect—not overly stimulating the economy with cheap borrowing but also not holding it back by making loans too costly. Pinning down that number is much harder, however.

“It’s the Goldilocks rate. It’s not too hot, not too cold, it’s just right,” said Beth Ann Bovino, the chief economist at U.S. Bank. “The problem is no one knows what it is. It’s all estimates.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month the central bank is moving toward a “more neutral policy stance.” Fed officials, however, have a wide range of views on what neutral means. Their most recent projections place the long-term neutral rate anywhere between 2.6% and 3.9%.

If the neutral rate is on the higher end, the Fed may have limited room to cut interest rates. That’s because its benchmark interest rate is already at a target range of 4% to 4.25%.

If the neutral rate is closer to 2.5%, however, the Fed has more room to cut. 

The difference may sound small, but its impact is compounded when borrowing over a long term, such as for a 30-year mortgage. It also has real present-day implications, since keeping rates unnecessarily high may cause a recession and job losses.

Much like a car approaching a stop sign, the Fed’s goal is to avoid a “jarring, jolting stop,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust.

“What the Fed is doing right now is trying to take the foot off the brake a little bit—to have a smooth transition to the point where they're not using the brake nor the gas,” Tilley said. 

But finding that balance isn’t easy. 

In the years preceding the COVID pandemic, the economic world was preoccupied with a gradual decline in the neutral rate, which is also referred to as r-star. 

Low interest rates were good for borrowers since loans were cheaper, but they also signaled potential structural weaknesses and less dynamism in the economy.

“When growth prospects are strong, r-star tends to be higher,” Jennifer McKeown, chief global economist at Capital Economics, said on a recent webinar. “When savings are plentiful or investment appetite is weak, then it tends to be lower.”

Demographics was one explanation behind the lower rates. Baby boomers neared retirement and invested in less risky assets such as government bonds. Longer life spans meant more money needed to be saved. Declining birth rates in major economies led to fewer workers, dampening their growth potential. The problem with inflation wasn’t that it was too high, but too low.

The world, perhaps still scarred from the 2008 crisis, was saving more and spending less. It was the era of "secular stagnation," as some economists called it.

Demographics and other global trends were responsible for much of the decline in interest rates between 1990 and 2019, according to one recent paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. But the pace of population aging has slowed and is putting less downward pressure on interest rates, they added.

One popular model that New York Fed President John Williams co-developed suggests demographics and low productivity will continue to weigh on the neutral rate.

“The era of low r-star appears far from over,” Williams said in a speech this summer, though he also noted that a concept “at the very heart of monetary theory” remains “vexing to quantify.”

Surveys from market participants suggest they think the neutral rate is on the rise. The median projection from the Fed has also increased, from about 2.5% the last few years to 2.9% in the most recent projections.

Untangling the reasons behind a potential increase and whether they’ll persist is a challenge.

The impact of artificial intelligence is a key debate, with some economists arguing it could make the economy more productive and raise its potential output. There are some early signs that “an AI-driven economic boom is about to begin,” McKeown, of Capital Economics, wrote in a research note.

President Donald Trump’s immigration policies could tamp down the neutral rate, however, since a smaller labor force could hold back economic growth.

“This drag should ease as future administrations take a less hardline stance,” McKeown wrote. “But for the time being, it will offset the positive impulse from stronger AI investment.”

Other factors may be driving up the neutral rate. Baby Boomers who are now retired have shifted to spending mode, rather than accumulating savings.

Governments are also spending more, with higher deficits funding retirement programs and boosting defense capabilities, particularly in Europe. Financial markets may be charging governments higher interest rates when they borrow, perceiving slightly higher risk that they’ll have trouble repaying their debts. 

If the neutral rate does rise, fiscal crises “become a bigger risk” as government interest payments swell, according to a recent paper from Maurice Obstfeld, a University of California Berkeley professor and a former International Monetary Fund chief economist.

Investors have mostly shrugged off rising U.S. debt levels but have sent more alarms in Japan, the United Kingdom and France, where fiscal woes have helped prompt a political crisis.

A decades-long trend toward globalization is seemingly shifting. Disruptions during COVID prompted some companies to bring their supply chains closer to home, and Trump’s tariff policies may rework them further. 

Inflation has fallen since the 2022 spike, but scars could linger among consumers and businesses and potentially drive costs higher. Financial markets could also play a role, if investors demand higher interest rates to compensate for the risk that inflation will erode their investments.

One recent paper tallied the potential impacts of such factors. Individually, each explanation may drive up neutral rates somewhat, University College London Economist Lukasz Rachel wrote. A return to pre-2008 levels of interest rates is possible, he found. But for that to happen, several upside risks “likely need to crystallize all at once,” he wrote.

• American Express said its quarterly revenue climbed to a record high, as the card issuer benefited from refreshed high-end credit cards and spending by wealthy shoppers. 
• The company also boosted the lower end of its full-year outlook.

Strong spending by America's affluent consumers helped American Express post record quarterly revenue.

The card issuer reported third-quarter earnings per share of $4.14 on revenue that climbed 11% year-over-year to a record $18.43 billion. Both figures topped analysts' forecasts compiled by Visible Alpha, as the company benefited from refreshed high-end credit cards and spending by wealthy shoppers.

The company also boosted the lower end of its outlook, now projecting full-year EPS of $15.20 to $15.50, up from $15 to $15.50. It said it sees revenue growth of 9% to 10%, compared to 8% to 10% previously.

Shares of American Express jumped more than 6% to around $343 in recent trading following the news, leaving them on track to close at a record high.

The results from American Express underscore recent trends suggesting the economy is increasingly driven by the spending of wealthy Americans, who may be disproportionately benefiting from stock market gains.

CEO Stephen Squeri pointed to the company's launch of updated high-end credit cards as contributing to the strong results, adding that demand and engagement have exceeded expectations.

With Friday's advance, American Express shares have risen about 15% this year, compared to a roughly 13% gain for the S&P 500.

• Micron shares pulled back from a record high Friday following a report that the company will stop providing server chips to data centers in China.
• After climbing above $200 for the first time earlier this month, the stock consolidated in a pennant before breaking out from the pattern on Thursday, potentially laying the groundwork for a continuation move higher.
• Bars pattern analysis indicates the price could climb to around $245. Investors should also watch key support levels on Micron's chart around $158 and $130.

Micron Technology (MU) shares lost ground Friday following a report that the company will suspend some of its business in China.

Reuters reported Friday that Micron will no longer supply server chips for data centers in China, after the business struggled following a ban imposed by Chinese authorities on use of the company's products in critical infrastructure. Micron will continue to sell chips to automotive and mobile phone sector customers in China, the report said.

Micron shares were down 2% at around $198 in recent trading, after gaining more than 5% yesterday as Wall Street analysts offered bullish commentary on the stock. Analysts at UBS raised their price target on the stock to $245, noting that Micron should benefit from "intensifying" memory and storage hardware shortages. Citi lifted its target to $240 and said the company sits well positioned to team up with ChatGPT maker OpenAI, which has recently stuck deals with Nvidia (NVDA), Advance Micro Devices (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO).

Through midday Friday, Micron shares had gained 135% since the start of the year and were up 19% in October, as investors bet that surging AI date-center demand will fuel a memory chip boom.

Below, we break down the technicals on Micron’s chart and point out key price levels that investors will likely be watching.

After climbing above $200 for the first time earlier this month, Micron shares consolidated in a pennant before breaking out from the pattern on Thursday. Importantly, the move occurred on the highest trading volume in more than three weeks, potentially laying the groundwork for a continuation move higher.

While the relative strength index sits near its overbought threshold, the indicator still remains significantly below its June and September peaks that preceded consolidation periods, indicating the stock has ample room for the recent uptrend to continue.

Let’s use technical analysis to forecast where Micron’s price may be headed next and also point out key support levels worth watching during pullbacks in the stock.

Investors can forecast where Micron shares may be headed by using bars pattern analysis, a technique that analyzes prior trends to project future directional movements.

When applying the analysis to the chipmaker's chart, we take the stock’s strong move higher that immediately preceded the pennant and reposition it from Thursday’s breakout point near the pattern’s top trendline.

This indicates the share price could rapidly climb to around $245 if a continuation move plays out.

During pullbacks, investors should initially watch the $158 level. This area could offer support near the prominent June 2024 swing high and a minor dip on the chart in September this year after an impulsive move higher.

Finally, a more-significant drop could see Micron shares revisit lower support near the key $130 level. Investors may look to set buy limit orders in this location near the top of a prior symmetrical triangle, which closely aligns with major peaks on the chart in April 2024 and June this year.

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As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.