Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

• The Consumer Price Index likely rose 3.1% over the year in September, according to forecasters.
  
• That would be the highest inflation in nearly a year and a half, which would underscore how tariffs have pushed up inflation that had been decelerating before President Donald Trump imposed double-digit import taxes.
  
• The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates despite rising inflation, due to concern about the job market losing steam.
  

Inflation likely rose to a 17-month high in September as tariffs pushed up prices, forecasters say. 

The Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on Friday is likely to show that prices rose 3.1% over the year in December, according to the Bloomberg Financial consensus forecast, as quoted by Wells Fargo Securities. If the report aligns with expectations, it would be an increase from 2.9% in August and the highest 12-month inflation rate since May 2024.

Higher inflation would underscore the impact of President Donald Trump's import taxes, which have steadily pushed prices up in recent months. The index's year-over-year inflation measure has risen every month since April, when Trump announced double-digit tariffs on products from nearly every country in the world. Before that, inflation had been largely decelerating from its post-pandemic peak in 2022. By many measures, it was nearly back down to the Federal Reserve's goal of a 2% annual rate.

Inflation accelerating for a fifth consecutive month would deal a setback to the Federal Reserve's efforts to lower inflation, which had been on a downward trend before April.

Still, the expected uptick would not likely be steep enough to deter officials at the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates later in October as widely expected. The Fed cut its benchmark fed funds rate by a quarter-point in September to prop up the ailing job market, as the Fed has grown more concerned with preventing unemployment than fighting inflation.

Despite higher prices, lower rent increases may keep the overall inflation rate from rising too much. "Core" inflation, which excludes volatile prices for food and energy, is expected to have risen 3.1% in September, unchanged from August.

"We expect goods inflation to stay elevated due to continued tariff pass-through, while an easing in primary shelter costs should help cool services inflation," Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Nicole Cervi wrote in a commentary.

The September CPI report could be especially noteworthy since it will be one of the few official pieces of economic data produced by the government's statistical agencies during the shutdown that began Oct. 1. The Bureau of Labor Statistics brought back some of its furloughed workers to publish the report that was initially due out Oct. 15.

Correction, Oct. 17, 2025: A previous version of this article misstated the day the inflation report is scheduled for. It's Friday, Oct. 24.

• Major U.S. equities indexes climbed at midday Friday as regional bank stocks rebounded from yesterday's losses after a flurry of corporate earnings reports.
• American Express shares climbed after the company posted strong quarterly results.
• Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly shares lost ground after President Trump said he would look to lower prices for popular weight-loss drugs.

Major U.S. equities indexes climbed at midday Friday as regional bank stocks rebounded from yesterday's losses after a flurry of corporate earnings reports. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were all higher.

Kenvue (KVUE) was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 as investors bought the dip in the health care product’s stock following yesterday’s selloff after a lawsuit in the U.K. claimed the company’s baby powder caused cancer.

Shares of American Express (AXP) gained after the financial firm posted quarterly results that topped analysts' estimates and lifted its outlook as customers rushed to use its refreshed high-end credit cards.

Truist Financial (TFC) also posted better-than-expected results on higher wealth management fees and interest income, sending its shares higher.

Shares of Newmont (NEM) and rival gold miners slid as the price of the precious metal, which has been setting records recently, pulled back.

U.S.-listed shares of Novo Nordisk (NVO) and shares of Eli Lilly (LLY) were down following comments from President Trump about slashing prices for popular weight-loss drugs.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note and oil futures edged higher. The U.S. dollar gained on the euro and pound, but lost ground to the yen. Most major cryptocurrencies traded lower. 

• Apple and Formula 1 agreed on a deal to broadcast Formula 1 races exclusively on Apple TV in the U.S. The agreement also includes Apple TV coverage of practices and other F1 events.
• The move is an expansion of Apple's relationship with F1—as well as an extension of its move into live sports.

Apple is driving further into sports broadcasts.

The tech giant said it scored an agreement with Formula 1 to broadcast races and other content exclusively on Apple TV in the U.S. The deal, which begins next year, will include “comprehensive coverage of Formula 1, with all practice, qualifying, Sprint sessions, and Grands Prix,” as well as select races and all practice sessions for free on Apple TV. Financial terms were not released.

Apple (AAPL) is adding sports programming as streaming continues to shake up the live sports media business. The company known for iPhones and iPads has also shown Major League Soccer and Major League Baseball games.

Sports fans are by now accustomed to having to look around a bit to find live broadcasts of their favorite sports and leagues in the streaming-video era. The latest change is Apple's pick-up of Formula 1 racing, which adds to its sports options, as the company continues to work to grow its services business alongside its core product offerings.

The company is seeking to expand its services business, which made up about a quarter of its sales for the first nine months of its latest fiscal year, while also refreshing its product lineup. Apple earlier this week announced a deal to bundle AppleTV+ with Comcast-owned (CMCSA) Peacock, part of its NBCUniversal branch.

Apple's shares were recently up about 0.4% in Friday trading. The stock was down about 1% this year through yesterday's close. (Read Investopedia's full daily markets coverage here.)

Eddy Cue, Apple’s senior vice president of Services, in a statement said Apple would be offering subscribers "front-row access to one of the most exciting and fastest-growing sports on the planet.” Formula 1 CEO Stefano Domenicali said the move would “ensure we can continue to maximize our growth potential in the U.S.” 

Apple released an "F1" motion picture this summer, which it said earned more than $600 million at the box office worldwide. It plans to stream the movie in December.

• President Trump said he would lower the prices of popular weight-loss drugs, pressuring shares of drugmakers Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly Friday.
• Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services head Dr. Mehmet Oz said price negotiations have not finished yet.

Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY) shares slumped in early trading Friday after President Trump promised to lower the prices of popular weight-loss drugs, such as Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Eli Lilly’s Zepbound.

In comments to reporters during a White House event Thursday, Trump said prices could drop to $150 a month from $1,300. When asked which treatment he meant, Trump pointed to Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic, saying prices for weight-loss drugs like it will be "much lower."

Ozempic’s current list price is $1,000 a month, but Novo Nordisk offers it to consumers buying in cash without insurance for less. Dr. Mehmet Oz, head of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), said the CMS has not yet finished negotiating costs with pharmaceutical firms. 

Shares of Novo Nordisk were down about 4% in recent trading, while shares of Eli Lilly dropped 3%.

President Trump’s recent comments come amid a broader effort by the administration to cut drug prices in the U.S. to align with lower international rates.

A Novo Nordisk spokesperson told Investopedia the company has engaged with the Trump administration, and "will continue to work to find solutions that help people access the medication they need."

U.S.-listed shares of Novo Nordisk have lost more than a third of their value this year as the company faces growing competition in the weight-loss drug market. Shares of Eli Lilly have added about 3%.

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Volatility is back just in time for the October scaries as new tariff threats rattle investors just as the markets reached new record highs. Is this a re-do of the April selloff, or the beginning of the bursting of a bubble in risky assets? 

Barry Ritholtz, the original Blog-Father, and author of “How Not to Invest”, drops in with his perspective and the key lessons he’s learned about how ‘not’ to invest, especially in times like these. Plus, what the debasement trade is teaching us, and how the bankruptcy of an auto parts conglomerate might be the tip of a terrifying iceberg underlying the capital markets today.

Links for show notes:

• https://www.hownottoinvestbook.com/
• https://ritholtz.com/
• https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-markets-this-week-big-bank-earnings-fed-speakers-shutdown-data-delays-11827144
  

News of the day for Oct. 17, 2025

Stock futures are mixed Friday as concerns about cracks in the credit market weigh on investor sentiment after Zions Bancorp (ZION) reported yesterday it would have to write off millions in fraudulent loans; gold continues hitting record highs as investors turn to the traditional safe haven amid the stock market volatility, while bitcoin is trading at its lowest levels since June; the Trump administration is reportedly set to offer tariff relief on auto part imports; and shares of Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY) are losing ground after President Donald Trump said weight loss treatments should be significantly cheaper. Here's what you need to know today.

Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open after major indexes tumbled Thursday amid mounting concerns about bank lending standards and stress in credit markets. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.2% recently, while those linked to the benchmark S&P 500 were flat and Nasdaq futures slipped 0.2%. Futures had been down sharply earlier this morning. The stock market has endured a volatile week of trading amid increasing uncertainty about the economic outlook and concerns that an AI bubble has formed. Nonetheless, each of the major indexes enters Friday's session with weekly gains of more than 1%.

Gold prices hit another record this morning as investors continue piling into precious metals amid a flight to safety. Gold futures were at $4,320 an ounce recently, after rising to near $4,400 earlier. Meanwhile, bitcoin (BTCUSD) was at $105,600, down from an overnight high of around $109,000. The digital currency, which hit a record high of $126,000 early last week, dropped as low as $103,500 this morning, its lowest level since June. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects mortgage rates and a variety of other consumer loans, was up slightly at 4.00% recently, after dropping to 3.94% this morning, its lowest level since April.

Regional bank stocks remain in the spotlight after they plunged yesterday following news that Zions Bancorp (ZION) would write off $50 million in fraudulent loans made to two borrowers. The disclosure came after the recent bankruptcies of two companies in the auto sector—car dealer Tricolor and auto parts maker First Brands—cast a spotlight on potential credit market risks. Earlier this week, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon highlighted the issue during the bank's post-earnings conference call. “I probably shouldn’t say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more,” Dimon said. Several regional banks are releasing quarterly results this morning, and investors are focused on what they say about exposure to bad loans. Zion Bancorp shares were up 4% in recent premarket trading, after falling 13% yesterday. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) was up 2.5%, after sliding 6% on Thursday.

U.S. automakers are expected to see some relief from tariffs on imported car parts as the Commerce Department is expected to announce a five-year extension of an arrangement that allows reductions on those tariffs. Bloomberg reported that an announcement on the auto part tariff reductions could come as early as today. Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) had lobbied the Trump administration for relief on the tariffs, which they said gave an advantage to Japanese car makers. Ford shares were little changed in premarket trading, while shares of GM and Jeep-maker Stellantis (STLA) were each up about 1%.

Shares of weight loss drug makers fell in early trading after President Donald Trump said that the costs of those treatments should be significantly cheaper than they are currently priced. Trump said that the price of Ozempic, which generally costs around $1,000 a month, should be much lower. “Those are going to be $150 out of pocket,” Trump reportedly said. Shares of Danish pharmaceutical firm Novo Nordisk (NVO), which makes Ozempic and Wegovy, were down 4% in recent trading, as were shares of Zepbound-maker Eli Lilly (LLY).

• Apple just announced several new products, including laptops and iPads, based on a new chip. That could help fire up buying during the holiday season.
• But investors may be looking for more signals from the company that they should start buying into the company's stock again.

People counting how many devices Apple is likely to sell this year are likely focused on the latest iPhones. But the company has plenty of other new devices to sell you—and investors may be looking past the latest unboxings.

Apple (AAPL) this week announced its latest stuff: an updated Vision Pro headset, which starts around $3,500; a 14-inch MacBook Pro laptop, which starts around $1,500; and new iPad Pro models, which start around $900. They're platforms for a new chip, called the M5, which the company said is "optimized for AI."

The devices, timed for sale during the holiday season, round out a lineup that was updated by the arrival of the newest iPhones, among other things, last month.

Phones are still big business at Apple, and the tech giant has launched several new ones, but it's also just announced a handful of other new products based on a new chip. All of them could help give holiday season sales a boost. But investors may be looking for more before they decide whether to get the stock moving upward again.

Phones still make up the biggest chunk of the company's revenue—they accounted for more than half in the first nine months of the current fiscal year—but even the smallest segment, iPads, represented nearly 7%. (Fiscal fourth-quarter numbers are due at the end of this month.)

The products, meanwhile, are platforms for the company to sell services, which made up about a quarter of Apple's nine-month sales.

The new products are likely to land under plenty of trees this holiday season, but investors are trying to work through issues that go beyond gift-getters' preferred models and color choices. Renewed trade tensions with China have raised questions about possible tariff impacts; the wait for Apple's latest AI services to land has worried some investors. At a more granular level, Jefferies analysts recently wondered whether the mix of new iPhone sales has so far tilted toward less-profitable models.

The stock is down 1% this year through Thursday's close, one of only two tickers in the Magnificent 7 group of big tech shares not to have gained—and the worst performer over the past 12 months. (The benchmark S&P 500 is up about 13%.) It's still a giant, with a market cap recently at $3.67 trillion.

Wall Street analysts, however don't expect much upside, with their mean price target as tracked by Visible Alpha currently just 2% above where the stock ended yesterday.

• Government statistical agencies failed to publish three major economic reports that were due Thursday.
  
• Economists are warning that the data for October may not merely be delayed but skipped entirely if the shutdown drags on.
  

Missed economic reports by government statistical agencies have economists wondering what will happen if the data simply never arrives. 

Experts have assumed that the government's statistical agencies will play catch-up once the government reopens and publish belated reports for October, as they have done in past shutdowns. But with the current shutdown looking like it could be the longest in history, economists are starting to consider what will happen if agencies skip reporting October entirely and it becomes just a blank spot on future historical charts.

"As the shutdown drags on with no end in sight, risks are mounting for October’s report," Sarah House and Nicole Cervi, economists at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in a commentary. "At a minimum, collection rates stand to be lower with data gathering still suspended, and the risk is rising that the publication of the October CPI report could be skipped entirely."

A wide range of decision-makers rely on data from federal statistical agencies as the most reliable information about the economy, and use it to make major policy and financial decisions. The longer the government remains shut down, the greater the risk that a lack of information will lead to mistakes.

The problem is that the data, including for inflation and job creation, is based on massive surveys. With the Bureau of Labor Statistics closed, those surveys aren't being carried out. (With the important exception of the Consumer Price Index report for September, which will be published Oct. 24.)

"If the shutdown continues, it’s possible that, for the first time in at least six decades, there will be a full month gap in data about jobs and unemployment in the U.S. economy," Elise Gould, senior economist at the progressive Economic Policy Institute think tank, and Joe Fast, a research assistant, wrote in a commentary.

The data drought is taking place at a time when economists and policymakers are hungrier than usual for information. President Donald Trump's policies—imposing tariffs, cracking down on immigration, and firing federal workers en masse—have sent shockwaves through the economy that experts are still trying to measure.

Recent reports have shown the job market slowing down at the same time tariffs push up inflation, raising red flags about the economy entering a period of slow growth and high inflation, or "stagflation."

"These data delays can lead economic actors (e.g., the Federal Reserve, Congress, investors, and employers) to fall behind the curve of economic events and hence make suboptimal decisions," Gould and Fast wrote.

Thursday was supposed to be a big day for economic data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis was scheduled to publish its Personal Consumption Expenditures report for September. That monthly status check on consumer income, spending, and inflation is data the Federal Reserve uses as its yardstick for whether inflation is running at its target of a 2% annual rate.

The Census Bureau was supposed to publish its monthly advance retail sales report for September, a key indicator for how willing and able U.S. households are to keep the economy chugging along with their spending. The Department of Labor was scheduled to publish its weekly jobless claims report, a crucial and timely indicator of the labor market's health.

Instead, those reports have all been delayed indefinitely as a result of the ongoing government shutdown, which began on Oct. 1 and has no end in sight. The data blackout has left economists and officials at the Fed to judge the state of the economy by measures they previously considered secondary, such as ADP's jobs report and the Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" which is based on anecdotes.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that the lack of official data is complicating the Fed's job as it tries to set its key interest rate.

"Although private-sector data alternatives are available and a helpful complement to official statistics, they are less informative when they stand alone," Waller said in prepared remarks at an event in New York Thursday. "The delay in the September employment report in particular makes it harder to know whether the labor market is continuing to soften or is stabilizing."

• Regional bank stocks slumped on Thursday after Zions Bancorp said it would write off loans to two borrowers it accused of fraud.
• Zions' write-off added to mounting concerns about lax lending standards and undisclosed entanglements among non-bank financial institutions, with which banks have dramatically increased their business in recent years.
• The recent bankruptcies of auto parts maker First Brands and subprime auto lender Tricolor have Wall Street worried that more credit-related losses are on the horizon.

Regional bank stocks tumbled on Thursday after Zions Bancorp said it would write off fraudulent loans made to two borrowers, adding to investors’ fears about lending standards and stress in credit markets.

Zions Bancorp (ZION) on Thursday said it had recently identified “what it believes to be apparent misrepresentations and contractual defaults” by two borrowers. As a result, it plans to write off $50 million of the $60 million outstanding on the affected loans.

Shares of Zions dropped 13% on Thursday, leading regional banks lower. The KBW Regional Banking Index fell 6%. 

After the banking crisis of 2023, in which mid-sized lenders like Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed, bank investors are especially attuned to distress in the loan portfolios of regional lenders. Small losses at one lender can be a warning of similar losses elsewhere, the accumulation of which can put stress on the broader financial system.

The recent bankruptcies of two companies in the auto sector—car dealer Tricolor and auto parts maker First Brands—have cast a spotlight on potential credit market risks. Tricolor is alleged to have fraudulently pledged risky subprime loan portfolios to multiple creditors, while First Brands was allegedly borrowing against invoices to mask the true size of its debt. 

Regional lender Fifth Third Bancorp (FTB), in a regulatory filing in early September, said it would take a $170 million charge related to the collapse of subprime auto lender Tricolor. JPMorganChase (JPM) also wrote off $170 million in Tricolor-related loans in the third quarter. And Raistone, which facilitates short-term business loans, has said $2.3 billion has “simply vanished” as a result of First Brands’ failure.

The dual bankruptcies have some on Wall Street worried that more credit losses are in the offing. “I probably shouldn’t say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more,” said JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday following the release of a better-than-expected earnings report from the banking giant. 

"I expect it to be a little bit worse than other people expect it to be," Dimon added, noting that private credit underwriting standards "may not be as good as you think."

Zions’ filing on Thursday added to mounting concerns about transparency in the banking system, especially around lending to non-depositary financial institutions (NDFIs), sometimes referred to as non-bank financial institutions. NDFIs—a category that includes hedge funds, insurers, and lenders of mortgages and consumer loans—offer financial services but do not take deposits, and thus don’t qualify as a bank and are not regulated as such. 

Bank lending to NDFIs has exploded in the last decade. Since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, bank loans to NDFIs have grown at nearly three times the rate of the next-fastest growing loan category, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s 2025 risk review.

NDFI lending poses a unique risk to banks. “It can be particularly difficult for banks to assess the credit decisions and management of loans originated by private credit firms,” according to the FDIC. In addition, “loans originated outside the banking system are not subject to the same safety and soundness standards as bank loans, which could lead to higher-risk lending across the financial system.” 

• Online prices rose year-over-year in September for the first time in about two year, according to Signifyd, a fraud prevention specialist that analyzed price changes for some 60,000 products.
• Tariffs and businesses' rising costs are likely contributing to inflation in the e-commerce system.

If scouring the internet for deals is part of your budgeting routine, you might want to rethink that strategy.

Online prices ticked higher in September, according to fraud-prevention specialist Signifyd, which recorded a year-over-year increase for the first time since 2023. Overall, the firm said, prices rose 0.8%; the company monitors how the price of some 60,000 products changes, year-over-year, at e-commerce shops operated by some 1,000 merchants.

The ease with which shoppers can compare prices online has long fostered competition between online merchants and contributed to price declines, said Signifyd senior data analyst Phelim Killough. Prices were tracking about 2% lower year-over-year as recently as July, and as much as 3.7% lower last October, the company said. But declines have been shrinking over the past eight months across nearly all product segments, Killough said.

"It does seem to be an e-commerce-wide trend," Killough said. "Merchants, I think, are feeling the pinch and having to increase prices."

Retailers are known to charge more in stores than online, where it's easier for consumers to compare prices. Rising online prices, experts say, could indicate that merchants have less flexibility and signal inflationary pressure in the broader retail market.

Economists have said for months that prices will rise as companies pass on the cost of tariffs. The Producer Price Index, which tracks inflation at the wholesale level, jumped 0.7% from June to July—the highest month-over-month rate seen in two years—but has since ticked down, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Consumers are demonstrating a desire to save, with some trading down to lower-priced alternatives of the products they once bought, Killough said. Merchants are aware of the thrifty ethos, but appear to be responding to pressure on their profit margins, he said.

With prices rising and the job market cooling, some analysts expect Americans to spend less this holiday season. Consumer pullback, in turn, weighs on retailers and merchants, who may not offer discounts as generous as last year's.