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• Hiring remains slow as businesses face headwinds from tariffs, according to the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report on the economy.
  
• Tariffs are pushing up prices, adding upward pressure to inflation, the report said.
  
• The Beige Book is one of a few economic reports issued by the government during the ongoing shutdown.
  

The U.S. economy is still stuck in its low hiring, low firing rut, according to the Federal Reserve's anecdotal Beige Book report.

While there was no hard data attached to Wednesday's report, which covered September and early October, the Beige Book painted a picture of employers across the country avoiding mass layoffs and also steering clear of hiring many new workers. The report is always based on anecdotes from business and community leaders.

A restaurateur in the Cleveland Fed's district summed up the report's sentiment, saying their business had "no growth, so no new positions will be added."

Another businessperson in the Atlanta Fed's district said there was a "hiring chill," with companies avoiding layoffs but welcoming attrition.

"Employment levels were largely stable in recent weeks, and demand for labor was generally muted across Districts and sectors," the report said.

When it comes to assessing the labor market, the Beige Book normally takes a back seat to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly report on job creation, which is based on massive surveys of businesses and households.

But with the government and the BLS mostly shut down since Oct. 1, the Beige Book is one of the Fed's few reliable sources of information about how the economy is doing. The report told much the same story as the most recent official data for the month of August, which showed the summer had the slowest payroll growth in years.

The Fed's policy committee meets Oct. 29 and 30 to set the central bank's key fed funds rate, which dictates borrowing costs for all kinds of short term loans. Fed officials are widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, the second cut in as many meetings, to boost the job market.

The Beige Book's latest findings reinforce expectations the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in the coming months to boost the job market. That will also lower borrowing costs on many short-term loans, such as on autos and credit cards.

The slow job market was at least partly due to President Donald Trump's tariffs, according to businesspeople quoted in the Beige Book. Trump's import taxes have stoked uncertainty and slowed down business in many parts of the country, the report said.

Some businesses also reported passing the costs of the import taxes on to consumers, while others said they were paying the tariffs themselves and haven't raised prices yet.

"Tariff-induced input cost increases were reported across many Districts, but the extent of those higher costs passing through to final prices varied," the report said.

The report may be important for the Federal Open Market Committee because it confirms already widespread expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at least several more times in the coming months.

Fed officials are currently grappling with whether to cut interest rates significantly to boost the job market or keep rates higher for longer to fight inflation. Inflation is still running above the Fed's target of a 2% annual rate.

The report showed "little change in the economy, continued softness in employment, and some limited pressure on prices from tariffs," Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a commentary. "Given the FOMC's recent preoccupation with downside job market risks, it is likely to ignore the temporary inflation threat and trim rates again later this month."

• An agribusiness stock surged on Wednesday, Oct. 10, 2025, as Trump weighed punitive measures against China's cooking oil trade, while a soft earnings report weighed on an insurance giant.
• Shares of Bunge, the world's largest oilseed processor, soared after President Trump threatened to ban U.S. purchases of Chinese cooking oil.
• Progressive shares sank after the insurer's quarterly profits came in below expectations.

Shares of a large grain processor took off as cooking oil became the latest sticking point in the strained trade relationship between the U.S. and China. A number of major financial firms benefitted from strong earnings reports, though soft quarterly results dragged down shares of an insurance giant.

Major U.S. equities indexes were volatile in the midweek trading session as investors also weighed the possibility of another interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve's October meeting. The S&P 500 finished 0.4% higher and Nasdaq added 0.7%, while the Dow fell fractionally. Find more reporting from Investopedia on the day's market moves here. 

Shares of grain processing company Bunge Global (BG) soared 13% to log the strongest daily performance in the S&P 500 after President Trump threatened to embargo Chinese cooking oil. Bunge is the world's largest oilseed processor. Shares of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) also gained.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surged close to 10%, leading other semiconductor stocks higher a day after the chipmaker announced a deal to sell chips to Oracle (ORCL).

An upbeat outlook from chipmaking equipment leader ASML (ASML) and a multibillion-dollar data center deal also contributed to enthusiasm for stocks tied to the semiconductor industry. ASML, Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), and KLA (KLAC) all rose.

Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) both saw shares jump close to 5% after they became the latest financial firms to report better-than-expected quarterly results. Morgan Stanley's results were boosted by strong trading revenue and Bank of America benefited from growth in investment banking fees.

Progressive (PGR) shares sank about 6% after the insurer reported third-quarter earnings that fell short of analysts' expectations. The results reflected a $950 million charge related to the firm's Florida auto insurance business generating profits above the state's limits, requiring Progressive to return that amount to Florida policyholders. Shares of competitor Allstate (ALL) were down 4.4%.

• Despite a move toward value-seeking in the U.S., Americans helped bolster sales at LVMH Moët Hennessy, the luxury goods conglomerate said.
• Research shows wealthy Americans are spending more freely than others and playing an outsize role in the economy.

Americans haven't fallen out of love with luxury goods.

While retailers and consumer-goods companies say Americans are particularly focused on value these days, high-end brands like Tiffany and BVLGARI are building momentum in the U.S. LVMH Moët Hennessy said its brands gained ground in the U.S. last quarter amid soft sales in other parts of the world, underscoring research showing that the U.S. economy is increasingly reliant on affluent consumers.

LVMH’s third-quarter U.S. revenue in the U.S. increased 3% year-over-year, but was negative in Europe and Asia. (Unfavorable currency exchange rates flipped the results of some segments, executives said on a conference call Tuesday.) 

Research suggests the economy is increasingly reliant on affluent Americans, who are benefitting from investments in the stock market. This may bolster businesses that cater to the wealthy, such as luxury travel and wealth management services.

LVMH identified the U.S. as a source of strength for several product lines and brands, including fashion and leather goods, watches and jewelry, and the Sephora beauty business. The results lifted shares of LVMH and other European luxury houses, including LVMH, Hermès and Gucci owner Kering, in European trading.

Wealthier Americans, particularly the top 5%, are spending more freely than other consumers because they're disproportionately benefitting from a booming stock market, Bank of America analysts said. Equity “gains are likely bigger in cash terms than the pay raises for these households and have probably played an important role in supporting their spending,” the bank wrote in a report published last week. 

Wealthy Americans' paychecks are also growing, rising at the largest rate in nearly three years and faster than middle and low-income households' incomes, Bank of America said.

Still, signs of caution are apparent—even at luxury companies.

“There was a kind of rebound with the election that created a kind of surge of consumption” last year, LVMH CFO Cécile Cabanis said on Tuesday's conference call, according to a transcript made available by AlphaSense.

• Walmart shares closed at a new high Wednesday, adding to gains that followed news yesterday the big box retailer had become the latest company to team up with ChatGPT developer OpenAI.
• Walmart shares staged a decisive breakout from a symmetrical triangle on Tuesday, laying the groundwork for a continuation move higher.
• The measured move technique projects a bullish near-term price target of $113. Investors should also watch crucial support levels on Walmart's chart around $105, $100 and $96.

Walmart (WMT) shares hit a fresh all-time high Wednesday, adding to gains that followed news yesterday the big box retailer had become the latest company to team up with ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

The retailer said the collaboration will allow shoppers to discover and buy items via instant checkout directly through the AI platform, adding that it also plans to enable conversational interactions with ChatGPT in the search bar on its websites.

Walmart shares rose nearly 2% to just over $109 on Wednesday, pacing Dow Jones Industrial Average advancers for the second straight day. The stock has gained 21% so far this year, outpacing broader market returns, as the retailer has benefitted from strong e-commerce sales and demand across income levels amid economic uncertainty.

Below, we break down the technicals on Walmart’s chart and identify crucial price levels that investors will likely be watching.

Walmart shares staged a decisive breakout from a symmetrical triangle on Tuesday, laying the groundwork for a continuation move higher.

Importantly, the jump occurred on above-average volume, suggesting conviction buying from larger market participants. Meanwhile, the relative strength index crossed into overbought territory, though the indicator remains below its prior peaks, providing room for the stock to explore higher prices before consolidating.

Let’s use technical analysis to project a bullish near-term price target on Walmart’s chart and also identify support levels worth watching during possible retracements. 

To project a bullish near-term price target above the stock’s record high, investors can use the measured move technique, a study that analyzes recognizable chart patterns to forecast future price movements.

When applying the analysis to Walmart’s chart, we calculate the distance between the symmetrical triangle’s two trendlines near their widest section and add that amount to the pattern’s breakout point. In this case, we add $10 to $103, which projects a price target of $113.

The first lower level to watch sits around $105. This area would likely provide significant support near prominent peaks that formed in the chart in February, August and September.

A close below this price could see the shares retreat to the $100 level. Investors may seek buying opportunities in this location near the psychological round number and a trendline that links a range of corresponding trading activity extending back to the stock's February gap.

Finally, further selling may trigger a decline to $96. Walmart shares could find support in this region near a series of peaks and troughs on the chart stretching between December and August.

The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.

As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.

• The government shutdown that began Oct. 1 could easily continue into November, potentially becoming the longest in history.
  
• The shutdown affects 750,000 furloughed federal workers and 690,000 more who are working without pay.
  
• Workers will miss 1.8 million paychecks if the shutdown continues into November, by one estimate.
  

As the government shutdown drags into its third week with no end in sight, furloughed federal workers are grappling with missed paychecks and in some cases, soul-searching about whether to continue working for the government.

The outlook for ending the shutdown got a little bleaker this week after the White House said it would continue to pay active-duty military service members during the shutdown, removing a major political pressure point that could have led to a compromise.

"Without this urgency, the shutdown is likely to continue into November," Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC, wrote in a commentary.

The government shutdown that began Oct. 1. If it doesn't end soon, it could easily become the longest in history, breaking the 35-day record set in 2018 and 2019. During a shutdown, many civilian federal workers are either furloughed or working without pay, key government services are disrupted, and crucial economic data goes unreported.

The shutdown is especially painful for the pocketbooks of federal workers, who are mostly going unpaid at least through the shutdown. An estimated 750,000 people are furloughed and not being paid, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Additionally, 690,000 are working without pay, according to a report released by the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonpartisan think tank, on Tuesday.

Up to 1.8 million paychecks will be missed if the shutdown continues through the end of the month, the BPC estimated. Furloughed workers alone will miss out on the equivalent of $400 million per day, the CBO said.

The shutdown is more stressful than past legislative standoffs for affected workers because President Donald Trump has threatened to withhold back pay for furloughed workers and has also begun laying off some of them permanently, both of which are unprecedented moves.

"It's a bit harrowing," said Jon McCormack, a deputy division chief at the Federal Communications Commission, a resident of Alexandria, Virginia. "It's real people's lives. I do fear for and feel for my friends and people that I know."

The shutdown has a more serious effect on the economy the longer it continues, with $400 million per day in wages going unpaid and some government services halted.

At the heart of the shutdown is a dispute over the federal budget. Democratic lawmakers are demanding Republicans make concessions on health care policy, including extending health care subsidies that would prevent insurance premiums for millions from soaring starting next year. Republicans have said they won't negotiate until the Democrats vote to reopen the government. Experts see little chance of a compromise any time soon.

 "A record 35-day shutdown certainly doesn’t look implausible anymore," Jim Reid, head of macro and thematic research at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a commentary. "The rhetoric doesn’t sound at all like either side is preparing for a deal."

Some federal workers have responded by looking for other jobs, according to data from job-hunting site Indeed. Job applications by federal workers rose the week of Oct. 9, and were 157% above their levels on Jan. 1.

McCormack, who works on rural broadband projects, said he isn't one of them and decided to stay working for the government even after some of his colleagues changed jobs. At least so far.

"When the government is shut down and you can't do the work, and you may not get a paycheck, it does cause you to have a little bit of anxiety about whether that was the right call, or whether you should be looking for greener pastures," he said.

McCormack said he and many other federal workers stay on the job despite the volatility because they believe they are doing valuable work on behalf of the public.

"They've been people who could clearly make a ton more money in the private sector, and some of them have left to go make a lot more money in the private sector, but [many] didn't because they're really dedicated to the mission," he said.

Update, Oct. 16—Clarified quote in final paragraph. Story was originally published Oct. 15, 2025.

• Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson says the surprise trade escalation could kick off "the first meaningful correction" in U.S. stocks since April.
• Healthcare stocks look like the "best hedge" for policy uncertainty, he wrote, while semiconductors, quantum computing and crowded stocks have the most downside risk.

U.S.-China trade tensions are back—and things could get worse for investors before they get better, some on Wall Street say, with the possibility of a big pullback in stocks and a retreat in some hot sectors.

Absent a near-term truce, according to analysts, the bull market that has chugged higher since April could be stopped in its tracks as investors grow wary about how long momentum stocks can keep climbing and harbor anxiety around rich valuations.

Recent market action has already signaled what could come: Gold has climbed, volatility has picked up, and shares of tech stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel (INTC) have shown vulnerability, dragging on broad market indexes. Still, investors haven't folded: the S&P 500, the Dow industrials, and the Nasdaq are all still near record levels.

Friday's trade escalation with China appears to represent the first meaningful decline of this bull run, according to Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson. And without a de-escalation in trade tensions between the world's largest economies, he wrote, stocks could see a decline in the S&P 500 of more than 15%. (The index fell over 11% from April 1, the day before Liberation Day, to its closing low on April 8.)

The best hedges against short-term policy uncertainty, according to Morgan Stanley, is quality—in short, companies with strong fundamental and financial characteristics—and healthcare, the "preferred" defensive sector play. Semiconductors, quantum computing, and crowded stocks that have been climbing higher have the "most downside risk," he wrote. Given the risk of outsize potential tariffs on China, the firm is underweight on consumer discretionary goods stocks.

Trade uncertainty has renewed volatility in U.S. stock markets that have mostly climbed upward for months. There's no guarantee that the party is over, but some market watchers believe there are good reasons not to consider a timely resolution a sure thing

Ned Davis Research economists "don't anticipate a quick resolution" after sizing up China's exports, which continue to climb in the face of high U.S. tariffs.

"China has been able to offset weaker U.S. demand with strong shipments almost everywhere else," wrote Alejandra Grindal, the firm's chief global economist, in a recent note. China's strength could make for lengthier negotiations, she wrote.

The market could withstand a trade escalation, especially if tensions ease in the next few weeks, Morgan Stanley's Wilson said. But if an additional 100% tariff on China goes effective Nov. 1 without any truce—a bear case—that would negate the firm's market recovery thesis going into 2026.

The firm's 12-month price target on the S&P 500 in a bear market is 4,900, more than 25% below current levels; its bull price target is 7,200, an upside of just under 8%.

• Krispy Kreme has launched an international expansion strategy, starting with a new location in Madrid.
• The donut maker needs a win after two consecutive quarters of dismal earnings and as its stock trades near its all-time low.

Krispy Kreme is hoping international customers have the sweet tooth that helps revive the donut chain's fortunes.

The maker of its eponymous donuts opened a shop in Madrid earlier this month and said Wednesday it plans to roll out two more in the Spanish city this year. It will open more than 50 new locations throughout the country over the next four years.

CEO Josh Charlesworth said the Madrid opening “strengthens our international presence," and "reinforces our commitment to scaling efficiently through our franchise model that supports sustainable, profitable growth."

The chain is also set to open two locations in São Paulo, Brazil, and make its debut in Uzbekistan, all before the end of 2025.

Krispy Kreme was once a retail darling, but has stumbled in recent years. Shareholders hope a new strategy can reverse the stock's slide.

Krispy Kreme (DNUT) shares have lost 65% of their value so far in 2025, as the company posted sales declines and net losses in both the first and second quarters. The stock was down about 2% in afternoon trading Wednesday.

In the second quarter, the company's U.S. revenue dropped 21% compared with the prior year owing to the sale of its stake in Insomnia Cookies, the end of its partnership with McDonald’s (MCD), and overall softening consumer demand. At the same time, international revenue was up 6%, led by sales growth in Canada, Japan and Mexico.

Krispy Kreme, which is expected to report third-quarter results in early November, currently operates in 40 countries via shops and retailer partnerships.

• Major U.S. equities indexes climbed Wednesday afternoon in the wake of strong bank earnings and indications of more Federal Reserve rate cuts ahead.
• Semiconductor stocks surged, led by Advanced Micro Devices, a day after the chipmaker had announced a deal to sell chips to Oracle.
• Morgan Stanley and Bank of America shares climbed after the financial firms reported quarterly results that topped analysts' expectations.

Major U.S. equities indexes climbed Wednesday afternoon in the wake of strong bank earnings and indications of more Federal Reserve rate cuts ahead. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow were all higher.

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surged, leading broader gains for semiconductor companies a day after the chipmaker announced a deal to sell chips to Oracle (ORCL).

Also helping lift semiconductor stocks was an update from chipmaking equipment manufacturer ASML (ASML), which said AI-driven demand was strong.

Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) gained after both financial firms reported better-than-expected results on booming investment banking revenue.

Bunge Global (BG) was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 as the soybean exporter stands to benefit from soybean trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Progressive (PGR) shares slumped after the insurer reported its combined ratio rose on higher costs.

Shares of F5 (FFIV) also dropped after the cloud services firm reported a cyberattack by government hackers.

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) shares declined after the drugmaker cut the top end of its earnings guidance on concerns about the impact of tariffs. 

Gold price climbed to a fresh high, while oil futures slid. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was little changed. The U.S. dollar lost ground to the euro, pound, and yen. Prices for most major cryptocurrencies were higher. 

• Wednesday has been a good day for chip stocks so far, with an index of semiconductor shares recently up more than 2%.
• One reason for the rise: sustained optimism about spending on the buildout of AI capabilities, even in the face of "bubble" worries.

Chip stocks are hot.

Semiconductor shares are rising Wednesday, lifted by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) which, with a recent gain of about 8%, was among the S&P 500's top gainers. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) of chip stocks was recently up 2.5%, looking strong even on an upbeat day for stocks broadly.

Sustained optimism regarding spending on the buildout of artificial intelligence capabilities is helping the sector. AMD yesterday announced a deal to sell chips to Oracle (ORCL), which followed another big partnership with ChatGPT owner OpenAI that landed earlier this month. An upbeat outlook from a chipmaking equipment leader hasn't hurt; neither has a multibillion-dollar data center deal.

The debate about how much longer the AI trade can stay hot isn't going away—but neither, at least for now, are dramatic day-to-day moves in shares of some of the companies that have been among its biggest beneficiaries. Today in particular, that means chip stocks.

OpenAI news also lifted Broadcom (AVGO) earlier this week, with the companies announcing a deal Citi analysts estimated could be worth $100 billion in revenue; its shares were recently ahead 3.2%.

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA), the only company with a market capitalization above $4 trillion, were recently up 0.4%. It also got help from optimism that AI spending is poised to keep rolling: Analysts at HSBC on Wednesday lifted their "hold" rating to "buy," setting a $320 price target on the shares that is about 78% above Tuesday's close and the highest tracked by Visible Alpha, citing "better visibility" into the size of its addressable market in the coming years.

There's undoubtedly concern about whether there's a "bubble" in AI—and U.S.-China trade tensions don't help, since the market for chips could be collateral damage in a trade war—but investors these days continue to pile in, looking for hot AI trades wherever they might be found.

AMD is today's big beneficiary. Wall Street analysts' latest reevaluations of the opportunity for the company after the OpenAI announcement "still do not reflect the revenue potential," HSBC analysts wrote today.

• A consortium including BlackRock, Nvidia, and Microsoft said it agreed to buy Aligned Data Centers in deal valued at $40 billion.
• Aligned Data Centers is one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing data center firms.

AI darling Nvidia just struck another big data center deal—this time as part of a group with Microsoft, BlackRock, and others.

A consortium including BlackRock (BLK), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT) said Wednesday it would buy AI data center infrastructure company Aligned Data Centers in an agreement valued at $40 billion.

Aligned Data Centers is one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing data center firms, and the group said the purchase “will fuel the expansion of next-generation cloud and AI infrastructure.” 

The massive deal could be taken as another strong signal of AI demand expectations, with Nvidia, Microsoft, and BlackRock making big bets on AI-driven growth.

The deal marks the latest in a string of high-profile agreements and partnerships for AI chip leader Nvidia, and infrastructure deals for BlackRock, which has been eying energy providers as another way to ride the AI boom.

BlackRock CEO and AIP Chair Larry Fink said that with the acquisition, “we further our goal of delivering the infrastructure necessary to power the future of AI, while offering our clients attractive opportunities to participate in its growth.”

Shares of Nvidia and Microsoft pared back early gains and were down about 1% in recent trading. Shares of BlackRock were less than 1% lower.

This article has been updated since it was first published for clarity and to reflect more recent stock price values.