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ASML shares are up close to 50% in 2025
Key Takeaways

• ASML said its China sales are expected to “decline significantly" as it faces trade policy headwinds, though it sees "positive momentum" from demand for artificial intelligence.
• Shares of ASML and other stocks in the semiconductor sector climbed Wednesday after a down day for the sector amid worries about U.S.-China trade tensions.

Chipmaking equipment supplier ASML says it's upbeat on AI demand, even in the face trade policy headwinds.

The Netherlands-based firm said it doesn't see its 2026 sales falling from 2025 levels even though it expects sales in China to “decline significantly,” thanks in part to strong demand for its machines to make chips supporting AI data centers.

CEO Christophe Fouquet said the company has seen “continued positive momentum around investments in AI, and (has) also seen this extending to more customers.” 

U.S.-listed shares of ASML (ASML) were up about 3% in recent trading. Shares of other companies in the semiconductor industry, including Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Lam Research (LRCX), also gained after a down day for the sector yesterday.

Why This Matters for Investors

As one of the world’s leading suppliers of chipmaking equipment, ASML's results can be taken as a signal of whether chipmakers are feeling confident in the future of their businesses.

ASML reported third-quarter earnings per share of 5.49 euros ($6.38), above analysts' estimates compiled by Visible Alpha, though its revenue of 7.52 billion euros ($8.74 billion) missed.

Fouquet said ASML sees current-quarter sales of between 9.2 billion and 9.8 billion euros ($10.7 billion and $11.4 billion), above the analyst consensus, and that the company plans to provide more details on its 2026 outlook in January.

With Wednesday's gains, ASML shares have added 46% in 2025 so far.

Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP via Getty Images   

Tariffs haven't been as damaging to the U.S. economy as expected, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Key Takeaways

• The U.S. economy is expected to grow 2% in 2025, slightly better than previously expected, according to an International Monetary Fund report, which found that tariffs haven't been as damaging as economists feared.
• Growth projections for both the U.S. and the global economy are still lower than they were in January, before President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs.
• Tariff risks remain, while a potential AI spending bubble could also upend economic growth, the report found.
  

Tariffs aren’t hurting the U.S. economy as much as expected, according to a new report from the International Monetary Fund. But they are still weighing on U.S. economic growth.

U.S. trade deals helped blunt the impact of the tariffs, while quick action from corporations to front-load buying and reroute supply chains also helped, the IMF’s latest revisions to its World Economic Outlook showed.

Why This Matters to You

President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies sent shockwaves through the global economy when they were first announced, and economists warned of grave repercussions. While severe effects have yet to materialize, both businesses and consumers should be aware that the U.S. and the rest of the world still face serious economic risks.

“The good news is that the growth downgrade is at the modest end of the range. The reasons are clear. The United States negotiated trade deals with various countries and provided multiple exemptions,” wrote IMF Research Director Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.

The IMF projected that U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) would grow 2% in 2025 and another 2.1% in 2026. That’s an improvement from the 1.8% U.S. growth projection the IMF made in April when tariff threats were escalating between the U.S. and its trading partners. But that growth is still below January’s estimate of 2.7% growth. Global economic growth is also projected to slow slightly in 2025 and 2026, the Fund said. 

The IMF report also projected U.S. inflation to decline over the next two years, while U.S. unemployment was projected to moderately increase. The report comes as U.S. inflation has not increased substantially despite President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, while U.S. GDP grew at 3.8% in the second quarter. 

Trade Tensions, AI Bubble Present Risks

But while tariffs may not be turning out to be as bad as feared, Gourinchas wrote that trade tensions could still have an impact on the global economy, especially if firms begin to pass on more tariff costs to their customers.

“Past experience suggests that it may take a long time before the full picture emerges,” he wrote.

Trade tensions aren’t the only thing that could impact the U.S. economy, as stricter immigration policies could slow the labor market. However, the report noted that lower interest rates, increased stimulus from the “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” and the artificial intelligence (AI) spending boom stood to boost the U.S. economy.

But that AI spending could be disappointing if it doesn’t deliver profits, potentially bursting what might be an AI bubble, the report noted. Rising government debt also posed a problem. 

“Despite a steady first half, the outlook remains insufficiently bright, with risks tilted to the downside,”  Gourinchas wrote.

News of the day for Oct. 15, 2025

Michael Nagle / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Investors are digesting a flurry of earnings reports from major banks that have come in over the past two days.

Stock futures are rising as investors monitor developments on U.S.-China trade tensions and digest strong earnings reports from major financial institutions; the Fed’s Beige Book will offer some economic insights amid a data blackout due to the federal government shutdown; ASML Holding shares are rising after the semiconductor equipment maker reported better-than-expected quarterly income; and Jeep-maker Stellantis plans to invest $13 billion in U.S. production. Here's what you need to know today.

1. Stock Futures Rise, Gold Hits Fresh Record High

Stock futures are moving higher after major indexes turned in a mixed performance yesterday amid ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Futures tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq were up 1% recently, while those linked to the benchmark S&P 500 rose 0.8% and Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures added 0.5%. Gold futures were up more than 1% at $4,215 an ounce, as the precious metal continues hitting record highs amid economic uncertainty and stock market volatility. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was trading at $112,000, down from from an overnight high of $113,600 and well below its all-time high of $126,000 set early last week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which can influence a variety of consumer loans, was holding steady at 4.02%, near a five-week low.

2. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley Results Beat Wall Street Expectations

Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) this morning released quarterly results that beat Wall Street expectations, joining several other major institutions that released strong earnings reports yesterday. Bank of America reported third-quarter revenue of $28.24 billion, better than the $27.5 billion expected from analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, while its earnings per share of $1.06 topped the consensus view of 95 cents. Morgan Stanley reported revenue of $18.2 billion, compared with the consensus estimate of $16.69 billion, while EPS of $2.80 came in above estimates of $2.11. Investors will be keeping tabs on what bank executives are saying about the outlook for their businesses after JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon warned Tuesday "of uncertainty stemming from complex geopolitical conditions, tariffs and trade uncertainty, elevated asset prices and the risk of sticky inflation." Shares of Bank of America and Morgan Stanley were up more than 4% in recent premarket trading.

3. Investors Await Fed's Beige Book Release As CPI Delayed Until Next Week

With data releases delayed as the federal government shutdown enters its third week, investors will be closely watching today’s 2 p.m. ET release of the Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book.” The Beige Book provides a summary of economic conditions in each of the 12 regions of the Federal Reserve and is published two weeks before each Fed meeting, with the next scheduled for Oct. 28-29. While investors won’t get the Consumer Price Index report for September that was originally scheduled for release today, that report will be published on Oct. 24, as officials said that the data was needed to determine Social Security payment levels.

4. Chip Equipment Maker ASML Tops Profit Estimates, Guides on 2026 Sales

ASML Holding (ASML) shares are rising in premarket trading after the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker reported better-than-expected income and sought to reassure investors on 2026 sales, even as its third quarter sales came in below analysts' estimates. ASML reported quarterly revenue of 7.516 billion euros ($8.74 billion), compared with expectations of 7.67 billion euros ($8.92 billion) from analysts tracked by Visible Alpha. Net income of 2.125 billion euros ($2.47 billion) was above the analyst consensus of 2.083 billion ($2.42 billion). The company said it expected 2026 sales to exceed 2025 levels, but would provide more information in January. ASML warned in July that it couldn’t guarantee growth in 2026 due to ongoing trade tensions with China. ASML shares, which have gained more than 40% since the start of the year, rose more than 4% ahead of the bell.

5. Stellantis Announces $13 Billion U.S. Investment

Big Three automaker Stellantis (STLA) said it would invest $13 billion into U.S. auto manufacturing over the next four years, the largest single investment in the company’s 100-year U.S. history. The investment will support the introduction of five new vehicles across the company’s brands, which includes Jeep and Chrysler, and the addition of 5,000 new jobs at plants in Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Indiana. The automaker recently reported a rise in third-quarter U.S. sales, which snapped a two-year streak of year-over-year sales declines. Shares of Stellantis were up 0.5% in recent premarket trading.

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Intel shares have surged close to 80% in 2025 through Tuesday's close.
Key Takeaways

• Shares of Intel fell Tuesday after a downgrade from Bank of America analysts, who voiced worries the stock has become overvalued after a recent rally.
• Tuesday's drop also came as the broader tech sector lost ground amid worries about U.S.-China trade tensions.

Is Intel's stock due for a pullback?

Bank of America analysts think so, telling clients this week they believe the struggling chipmaker's stock has climbed "too far, too fast" after their recent rally on a string of high-profile deals.

The stock dropped over 4% Tuesday, making it one of the biggest decliners in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, on a down day for the broader tech sector amid worries about U.S.-China trade tensions. Still, the stock is up nearly 80% for 2025, with most of the gains coming in just the last few months.

Sentiment for Intel's (INTC) stock has gotten a boost lately after the Trump administration took a stake in August, and the chipmaker announced a partnership with rival Nvidia (NVDA) last month. That gave rise to speculation deals with others could come soon, with Apple (AAPL) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) floated as likely names.

However, Bank of America analysts said they believe Intel's recent stock gains have become detached from its fundamental potential, with an outlook that "remains challenged with no discernible AI portfolio/strategy."

Why This Matters to Intel Investors

Bank of America is the latest Wall Street firm to raise concerns the recent enthusiasm for Intel's stock could be premature.

The analysts downgraded the stock to "underperform" from "neutral," with a price target of $34, suggesting about a 5% decline from Tuesday's close.

That's a bit above the average of analysts polled by Visible Alpha, who have largely maintained neutral ratings on the stock while waiting to see more signs of customer commitments to Intel's manufacturing business.

Brendon Thorne / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Long viewed as an investment hedge against economic turbulence, precious metals have surged in a global environment beset by myriad uncertainties.
KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Gold and silver touched new all-time highs again Tuesday.
• Precious metals have rallied strongly in the past month amid global trade tension, the federal government shutdown and increased stock market volatility.

The global rally in precious metals continued Tuesday, reflecting a litany of concerns on the part of investors.

In spot markets, gold reached an all-time high of $4,186 per troy ounce, while silver hit a new record high of $53.59 per ounce. The precious metals came off those highs later in the session, but gold and silver remain 12% and 21% higher, respectively, in just the past month.

Tuesday's trading followed a Monday session in which nominal silver futures contracts eclipsed an all-time high established in 1980, when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the global silver market. Silver now has surged 78% year-to-date, while gold is up 58%.

What This Means for Investors

Investors often turn to precious metals as a hedge against the risks associated with economic and geopolitical uncertainty. The factors that have sparked the recent rally in gold and silver don't appear likely to subside soon, which could indicate there's further room for precious metals to rise. Some experts have suggested recently that investors increase the allocation of precious metals in their investment portfolios.

Uncertainty Abounds

Long viewed as an investment hedge against economic turbulence, precious metals have surged in a global environment beset by myriad uncertainties.

At the top of the list recently: global trade tension. Last Friday, President Trump rattled global markets by warning of a 100% increase in tariffs on China by Nov. 1. His warning came as a response to China's decision to curb exports of rare earth metals used for an array of technological and industrial applications.

On social media Monday, Trump appeared to soften his tone. But Tuesday, China placed sanctions on five U.S. divisions of South Korea shipping firm Hanwha Ocean Co., and both the U.S. and China began charging port fees on each other's ships.

In its latest world economic outlook issued Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund cited a volatile environment and new policy measures for "dim" global prospects and subdued growth.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown is about to enter its third week. Furloughs and layoffs of some government employees have begun, threatening overall consumer spending and economic growth.

The shutdown also has delayed key employment and inflation reports as the Federal Reserve ponders another interest rate cut at the end of October. Lower rates generally favor precious metals, which do not produce regular income as bonds do.

In addition, even though stocks remain near record highs, the market's recent volatility—particularly since Trump's pronouncement Friday—appears to have aided precious metals.

Stock investors also appear increasingly concerned about a bubble in AI stocks, which might steer some investors toward other assets. Global fund managers surveyed in the past month by Bank of America identified concerns about an AI bubble as the stock market's biggest risk, with the majority viewing AI stocks as already in that territory.

That same BofA survey indicated that fund managers view "Long Gold" as the most crowded traded, overtaking "Long Magnificent 7."

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Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that some disagreement was to be expected under the economic circumstances.
Key Takeaways

• Federal Reserve officials have voiced differing opinions about how the central bank should set interest rates in the coming months, with some favoring steep rate cuts and others advocating a more cautious approach.
  
• The Fed's next moves aren't obvious because its dual mandate to keep inflation low and employment high is pulling its monetary policy in opposite directions.
  

Officials at the Federal Reserve are divided about how to set the central bank's key interest rate in the coming months, and may not get the data they need to settle their differences anytime soon.

As evidenced in recent speeches and the minutes of their September meeting, a split is emerging between members of the Federal Open Market Committee. One group is more concerned about the deteriorating labor market and thinks the Fed should lower its benchmark interest rate significantly to stave off job losses. The other group sees inflation as the greater threat, and advocates for a more cautious approach to rate cuts.

Investors broadly expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at each of its next two meetings. However, the path after that is murkier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

How This Affects The Economy

Disagreement among Fed officials highlights the dilemma the central bank faces in dealing with the fallout from tariffs and other economic policies implemented by the White House. The economy is in a rare position, facing higher inflation and the risk of surging unemployment at the same time.

Fed officials are trying to balance the demands of their dual mandate from Congress to keep inflation low and employment high. The Fed could help the faltering labor market by lowering its key interest rate, or it could fight inflation by keeping it higher, but it can't do both at the same time. Members of the Fed's 12-member policy committee have differing views on how to approach that dilemma.

In the "cautious" camp, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed, warned against cutting interest rates too quickly in an interview with the Financial Times on Monday.

Tariff policies have pushed inflation measures up in recent months and kept them above the Fed's target of a 2% annual rate. However, many economists believe tariffs will be a one-time boost to prices and not lead to a spiral of inflation. Goolsbee said he was wary of making that assumption in the wake of the pandemic, when what was initially thought to be a transitory increase in prices due to disrupted supply chains led to an alarming surge in inflation in 2022.

"Let’s be a little wary about frontloading all the rate cuts before we know that inflation’s going to go back down to 2%," Goolsbee said.

On the farthest end of the other camp, Fed Governor Stephen Miran has advocated for steep rate cuts, arguing that President Donald Trump's economic policies will ultimately push down inflation.

A Healthy Debate

The Fed's policy committee tries to reach a consensus on its interest rate moves, and usually votes unanimously at its policy meetings. But several members have cast dissenting votes at its most recent meetings, highlighting the differences of opinion on strategy.

Economic data on inflation and job losses could clarify whether inflation or unemployment is the more urgent threat to the economy, but the ongoing government shutdown has delayed key reports on those topics.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the disagreements Tuesday in a Q&A session at an economics conference in Philadelphia.

"Consensus is great, but the most important thing of all is to get it right," Powell said. "You have a situation here where inflation is above target and gently rising. The labor market is subject to pretty clear downside risks. What do you do? How do you think about that? That's not a problem that we that you face very often in central banking or in the economy, and people are going to have different weights and different risk aversion and different risk appetites on those things. It would be kind of surprising if you had no debate over those things."

INA FASSBENDER / AFP / Getty Images

AI darling Nvidia was among the biggest decliners in the S&P 500 Tuesday.
Key Takeaways

• Nvidia and other chip stocks lost ground Tuesday, weighing on the major indexes amid worries about U.S.-China trade tensions.
• Wells Fargo shares surged after the bank posted better-than-expected profits.
  

Trade tensions and signs of stiffening competition weighed on a number of stocks in the AI space Tuesday. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected quarterly profits helped lift shares of a large bank.

The Dow finished 0.4% higher, but the S&P 500 lost 0.2% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 0.8% as tech-sector losses dragged on the major indexes. See here for more market coverage from Investopedia.

AI darling Nvidia (NVDA) and other semiconductor stocks were among the S&P 500's biggest decliners amid worries about shifting U.S.-China trade policies. Nvidia shares dropped over 4%, along with shares of Intel (INTC), which received a downgrade from Bank of America analysts suggesting the stock has climbed "too far, too fast" on enthusiasm for its recent AI deals.

Arista Networks (ANET) shares dropped nearly 6%, falling the furthest of any S&P 500 stock after Nvidia announced that a pair of major AI players would be adopting its switches in their data centers, representing a competitive threat to Arista's switches.

A judge in Texas ruled in favor of the federal government in a lawsuit from health insurer Humana (HUM) challenging downgrades to its Medicare Advantage star ratings. The court determined that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services acted legally in lowering Humana's ratings, which affect the reimbursements received by insurers. Humana shares lost 3.5%.

Wells Fargo (WFC) shares surged over 7% to notch the S&P 500's top performance of the day, after the financial firm beat third-quarter profit forecasts and boosted its profitability outlook. In June, the Federal Reserve lifted asset restrictions on the banking giant that it imposed in 2018 following a series of scandals. CEO Charlie Scharf emphasized that the removal of regulatory constraints positions the bank for stronger growth.

Addressing the National Association for Business Economics conference in Philadelphia Tuesday afternoon, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the central bank could be positioned for two more interest-rate cuts this year. Optimism around rate reductions helped boost companies exposed to the housing market, which stand to benefit as mortgage rates ease. Shares of residential construction supplier Builders FirstSource (BLDR) jumped 6.1%.

Walmart (WMT) stock surged about 5% after the retail giant announced a partnership with ChatGPT developer OpenAI. According to Walmart, the new collaboration will allow shoppers to discover and buy items via instant checkout directly through the AI platform. The retailer also plans to enable conversational interactions with ChatGPT in the search bar on its websites.

 Eugene Gologursky / Getty Images

Financial journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin sees warning signs today with amped-up AI speculation, rising debt, and weakening investor protections.
Key Takeaways

• Andrew Ross Sorkin, the founder and editor of the New York Times' DealBook and a CNBC host, warns that today’s stock market speculation mirrors the conditions of 1929 before the market crash and subsequent Great Depression.
• Sorkin warned that it's not a question of if but when and how severe the coming crash will be.

After spending almost a decade studying the 1929 crash, Sorkin has a warning: it's happening again. Now, the bestselling author of Too Big to Fail, an account of the government interventions needed to get the economy back on its feet after the Great Financial Crisis, says Wall Street today mirrors the reckless speculation and borrowed money that fueled the market bubble before the Great Depression.

But this time, he warns it's AI hype instead of margin trading—and the guardrails designed to protect you are being dismantled. “A crash is coming...I just can't tell you when, and I can't tell you how deep."

Why This Matters To You

If history should repeat itself, ordinary investors lose the most when markets crash. The push to open your 401(k) to riskier private investments and crypto—marketed as "democratizing finance"—echoes the same pitch that led many middle-class savers to ruin in 1929. Understanding these warning signs now could help you protect your retirement savings before it's too late.

The Warning

In his new book, 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History, Sorkin says the Roaring Twenties have a warning for those watching the market today.

The problem, for Sorkin, isn't simply that the stock market is at record highs—it's that it's happening despite a fundamentally worsening economy and geopolitical uncertainty. This means the market is providing a heady mix of rampant speculation, excessive debt, and what Sorkin calls the “guardrails coming off" that would normally protect investors.

“I’m anxious that we are at prices that may not feel sustainable,” he says, citing the massive investments in AI in particular.

Lessons from 1929 

Easy credit was the explosive force that fueled the stock market bubble in the 1920s.

Before the early 1900s, Americans rarely went into debt, largely because of religious and moral stigmas. Then General Motors popularized consumer credit to buy cars, igniting a revolution in American consumer culture. Soon, Wall Street saw an opportunity. The same principle could work for stocks: If a person could buy a new car on a credit plan, the argument went, why not a diversified portfolio of stocks, with just 10% down and 90% on margin (borrowed money)?

In good times, "it felt like free money,” Sorkin says. It’s the same argument often made today—allowing ordinary investors to bet with their retirement money on high-flying private equity funds and cryptocurrencies, but with far fewer investor protections and disclosures than public stocks.

Ordinary investors a century ago bought stocks on margin, only to be wiped out when the market crashed in 1929. Today feels eerily similar, only now with meme stocks, record numbers of exchange-traded funds with PhD levels of financial engineering often aimed at retail investors, and alternative investments like crypto.

Today's Market Mood

Sorkin suggests that the current market exhibits several hallmarks of speculative mania. AI stocks have soared as investors clamor to bet on the next big tech innovation. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been thrown into the space, inflating valuations to stratospheric heights, even as broader concerns over economic slowdowns and geopolitical risks loom. 

At the same time, ordinary investors are often told they should be taking risks on private investments in their 401(k) retirement accounts—another parallel to the past, only with fewer safeguards or disclosures about risks (the pitch from politicians has been about "democratizing" access to building wealth).

Debt is high. Speculation is rampant. And what investors think is beginning to sound “too good to be true” is starting to look a lot like other bubbles Sorkin has covered during his career, from 1929 to 2000 to 2008 to today.

Expert Context 

Not everyone shares Sorkin's pessimism. BlackRock’s (BLK) Larry Fink, CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, argues that opening up retirement funds to private equity and other riskier investments offers ordinary investors a chance to gain much better returns. And Fink, who once dismissed bitcoin as a tool for money launderers, now sees crypto as a smart component in most portfolios, similar to gold.

He's not alone in suggesting that parallels to 1929 may be overblown. Today, there are stronger banking regulations, Federal Reserve interventions, and sophisticated risk management tools. However, these arguments often gloss over the same dynamic Sorkin frets about—not that we’re teetering on the edge of a cliff, but that the protections specifically put in place to prevent Wall Street excess are being removed at just the time they might be most needed.

After joking about a “Sorkin coin” on CNBC with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, a listener actually created the cryptocurrency within a couple of hours. The meme coin became its own sign of the times, reaching $170 million in daily trading volume before tanking.

The Bottom Line 

Sorkin sees uncomfortable parallels between today's market and the pre-crash market of the late 1920s: soaring valuations driven by technological hype, increasing debt levels, speculative fervor in assets like memecoins, and a systematic weakening of investor protections—all wrapped in the appealing rhetoric of democratizing finance. While the timing and severity of any future crash remain unknowable, the warning is clear: though history may not repeat, it often rhymes—and investors might just be feeling that beat getting louder.

"I can assure you, unfortunately, I wish I weren't saying this," Sorkin says. "We will have a crash."

AFP / Getty Images

The reignition of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies could suppress economic growth, one analysis found.
Key Takeaways

• The U.S. economy could take a massive hit if China follows through on threats to restrict its exports of rare earth minerals.
• Rare earths are used in defense, cars, electronics, and other high-tech products, and China nearly completely controls the market for them.
  
• Cutting off rare earths would drag down economic growth and push inflation to double-digit levels, according to one analysis.
  

If the latest skirmish of words between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping devolves into a full-scale trade war, the U.S. could take an economic hit on par with the onset of COVID-19. 

That's according to an analysis Tuesday by Oxford Economics, which underlined the extremely high stakes of the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China. Late last week, Chinese officials said they were imposing new restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals crucial for the high-tech industry. Trump retaliated Friday by threatening to impose "massive" tariffs on China, but softened that threat over the weekend, saying "it will all be fine."

The threats of tariffs and rare earth restrictions were both set to take effect in November and may ultimately prove to be nothing more than bargaining ploys. Each side is trying to gain an advantage ahead of an expected meeting between Trump and Xi later this month in South Korea, several experts said.

However, there is still a chance the trade dispute could heat up and seriously hurt the economy at a time when job growth is already slowing, and inflation is on the rise.

"Each side is brandishing leverage but preserving a narrow window for compromise," Matt Colyar, an economist at Moody's Analytics, wrote in a commentary. "Ultimately, the rare-earth move and tariff threat are less about trade than power. Both sides want to show they can’t be coerced. But posturing can harden into policy."

China has already flexed that leverage this year in response to Trump's imposition of triple-digit tariffs on China in April. The two sides settled into a temporary truce in May, with the U.S. lowering its tariffs and China lifting restrictions on rare earth materials. The latest back-and-forth threats undermine that truce.

What This Means For The Economy

If negotiations between the U.S. and China go wrong, China could cut U.S. industries off from crucial supplies, decimating the economy and stoking inflation. The ensuing slowdown in economic growth, combined with higher prices, would be financially painful for U.S. households.

Covid-Like Shock

China dominates the market for refined rare earth metals, which are used in weapons, cars, electronics, and other high-tech products. By cutting off the U.S. from those crucial resources, China could seriously damage the U.S. economy, Louise Loo, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, wrote in an analysis Tuesday.

"If implemented in full, the controls announced by China last week would have a punishing impact on downstream industries globally by delaying production processes, potentially leading to supply chain chokepoints," Loo wrote.

The disruption would ripple through the economy and cause "a shock akin to the early-2020s supply snarls," Loo wrote. Growth in the Gross Domestic Product would slow by an entire percentage point, and wholesale inflation would surge to double-digit levels, similar to the aftermath of the pandemic, Loo estimated.

Oxford's experts believe the worst-case scenario will likely be avoided, but the risks are sky-high if either side miscalculates in the upcoming talks.

"Rare earths appear to be being used as bargaining chips, with both sides probing red lines while leaving room for another tariff truce, which is still our forecast working assumption," Loo wrote.

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Americans continue to look for ways to save on food.
Key Takeaways

• A grocery-chain CEO listed a number of ways shoppers are looking to "focus on value" these days, including buying more store brands, using coupons and sticking to a list.
• But an ongoing effort to save doesn't mean they aren't also trying to eat healthier, the CEO of Albertsons said.

Americans aren't done hunting for deals in grocery aisles.

Shoppers are looking to "focus on value," the CEO of grocery chain Albertsons (ACI) said on a Tuesday conference call, adopting a range of strategies to save ranging from buying smaller to avoiding impulse purchases. The latest comments, from CEO Susan Morris, highlight a desire from consumers to make the most of their dollars as they navigate an uncertain economic environment.

Morris on Tuesday's call highlighted a shift toward buying smaller package sizes and using more coupons. (The latter observation echoes one made recently by Kroger (KR), which once hoped to merge with Albertsons and has said a return to offering paper coupons has proven popular with some shoppers.) She also noted an enthusiasm for store brands, which other retailers have reported, saying they represent an "incredible upside opportunity."

And she said shoppers are sticking to their plans when they hit the store, "maybe not buying that extra item, that extra bottle."

What This Means for Consumers

If you feel like you're fretting over what to put into—and leave out of—your grocery carts these days, you're not alone. Americans are trying a range of tactics to stretch their food dollars, including making and sticking to grocery lists.

"They're kind of shortening their list and sticking to it," said Morris, according to a transcript made available by AlphaSense.

A range of merchants have pointed at "trade-down" activity showing up in the baskets of low- and middle-income families but also some higher-income households. In a sign of consumer resilience, some observers have reported signs that many who are seeking out savings are doing so to make splurges easier to justify. Credit- and debit-card spending rose 2% year-over-year in September, according to Bank of America, but the growth was more pronounced among wealthier households.

A push to save hasn't meant less interest in healthy eating, Morris said, reporting continued growth in categories like functional—such as protein-enhanced—drinks, as well as fresh meat and produce. (Eaters' fondness for protein has moved beyond the grocery store to the coffee shop, with Starbucks (SBUX) recently announcing plans to add it to cold foam.)

"The pressure continues," Morris said. "We’re working very hard to give the customers what they want by market in a way that fits their budget."