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Jobseekers wait to speak with recruiters during a job fair in Dallas, Texas, on Wednesday, July 29.
Credit: Dylan Hollingsworth / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Economists expect U.S. employers to add 83,000 jobs in July, up from June’s 57,000.
• The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.2%, a level driven as much by a shrinking labor force as by steady hiring.
• A jobs report showing a steady labor market could free the Federal Reserve to focus more on inflation.

The labor market likely stayed stable in July, if economists’ forecasts prove true later this week.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the July employment report on Friday, and economists expect it to show U.S. employers added 83,000 jobs in July, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. That’s an improvement over the previous month, when the economy added 57,000 jobs.

Economists expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2% for the second month in a row. Despite the volatility in the number of jobs available, the unemployment rate has remained relatively steady, averaging 4.3% over the past year. Economists say that stability reflects fewer people entering the job market.

“Tepid labor demand has been accompanied by slower labor supply growth, helping to keep the labor market in balance,” wrote a group of economists at Wells Fargo.

Why This Matters

A steady labor market is good for job seekers, and better numbers this week could bode well for savers, too. Steadiness in the job market would allow Federal Reserve officials to focus on fighting inflation, which could result in higher interest rates. But borrowers have reason to worry, since that could bump up rates on loans and credit cards.

Economists expect a small boost in job availability related to the World Cup. It would be the last time the economy receives a bump from the international soccer tournament, which ended last month.

If economists’ forecasts bear out, policymakers at the Federal Reserve would breathe a little bit easier. So far this year, a cloudy economic outlook has made it harder for the Fed to balance the two sides of its dual mandate to keep unemployment and inflation low. In recent months, persistent inflation seems to have pulled ahead as central bankers’ main concern. Friday’s report on the job market could further persuade Fed officials that’s where their attention belongs.

“If the labor market data remain stable as we expect, Fed officials will be left with one side of its dual mandate to focus on—inflation,” Deutsche Bank Research analysts wrote.

Traders Wednesday afternoon were pricing in a 55% chance that Fed officials would hike rates to fight inflation at their September meeting, according to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool, which uses futures prices to gauge Fed probabilities.

However, a better jobs report this week isn’t a given. July has been a particularly disappointing month for the labor market in recent years, wrote Goldman Sachs analysts.

“Payrolls have missed consensus expectations in July in recent years, and there have also been large negative revisions to job growth for prior months,” they wrote.

Shares of Google parent Alphabet led Dow decliners Wednesday.
Credit: David Paul Morris / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Shares of Google parent Alphabet fell Wednesday after leadership changes in its AI division were announced.
• Jeff Dean, the company’s chief scientist, is leaving his post to launch an AI startup called Discovery Loop.
• Google Deep Mind CEO Demis Hassabis will become the unit’s chair, with Koray Kavukcuoglu set to become SVP and oversee Gemini model development.

Shareholders are not taking kindly to Google’s AI leadership changes.

Shares of Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) dropped 4% to lead decliners in the Dow Wednesday after CEO Sundar Pichai announced several moves in a blog post.

Chief Scientist Jeff Dean, a 27-year employee, and Google Senior Fellow Sanjay Ghemawat will be leaving to launch an AI startup called Discovery Loop that will “accelerate discoveries in ML, science, and engineering,” Pichai wrote. Google will invest in the startup.

Meanwhile, Demis Hassabis, who has served as CEO of Google Deep Mind, will now become the unit’s chair, as well as chief scientist of Alphabet.

“I’ve decided that now is the right time for me to hand over my day-to-day operational responsibilities at GDM, so that I have the time and space to focus on the big picture and help influence what is to come to the best of my ability,” Hassabis wrote.

Koray Kavukcuoglu, currently Google DeepMind’s technology chief and Google’s chief AI architect, will become the unit’s SVP and “oversee Gemini model development, Frontier AI research, and the Gemini app and developer teams,” Pichai wrote.

The company has yet to release its highly anticipated Gemini 3.5 Pro next-generation frontier model, and did not give an update during its second-quarter earnings call two weeks ago.

“The Gemini models are in good hands with Koray and the leads, as they have been for a while, and I’m excited about the great progress we’re making with our new models including Gemini 4,” Hassabis wrote.

Despite Wednesday’s pullback, Alphabet shares are up about 16% this year.

This article has been corrected since it was first published to reflect that Koray Kavukcuoglu is set to become Google DeepMind’s SVP and include more recent stock prices.

SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk (left) said in Tuesday’s earnings call that SpaceX will only buy Nvidia chips.
Credit: Stefani Reynolds / Bloomberg / Contributor / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Nvidia shares climbed Wednesday, after Elon Musk said SpaceX will exclusively buy its chips.
• Musk said SpaceX expects to secure a “significant percent” of Nvidia’s GPUs next year.

Nvidia shares are getting a lift after some encouraging comments from SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

Musk said in SpaceX’s (SPCX) first earnings call as a public company yesterday that it will only buy Nvidia (NVDA) chips for the foreseeable future to run its AI products. Nvidia shares were up 4% in recent trading, on track to log their fifth straight day of gains, while SpaceX shares dropped 12%.

“We’ve decided to build exclusively on Nvidia because we think the Vera Rubin architecture is the best architecture,” Musk said, per an AlphaSense transcript. “We think it’s the best AI computer and we greatly value our close cooperation and partnership on many levels with Nvidia.”

When asked on the call about the amount of hardware SpaceX is securing to bring more AI computing capacity online over the next year, Musk said SpaceX anticipates receiving “a very significant percent” of Nvidia’s GPUs next year.

Musk’s companies have used Nvidia hardware for years, and the CEO has at times rerouted chips reserved for Tesla (TSLA) to X and xAI, which are both now part of SpaceX. He has previously said that as long as Nvidia continues to make chips better than what his companies can produce internally, they will remain an Nvidia customer. That could change in the future, as Tesla and SpaceX are planning to build a jointly owned factory to make their own AI chips.

With Wednesday’s gains, Nvidia shares are up 18% since the start of the year, but still about 7% off their May highs.

Booking Holdings shares surged Wednesday but remain slightly lower for the year.
Credit: Cheng Xin / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Booking Holdings stock popped Wednesday, after the travel company posted better-than-earnings, despite “near-term volatility” driven by conflict in the Middle East.
• Executives said travel demand remains “remarkably resilient.”

Booking Holdings posted better-than-expected earnings, despite facing what its chief executive called “near-term volatility” driven by conflict in the Middle East. Investors are cheering the results.

Shares of Booking Holdings (BKNG) were up 6% in recent trading, among the biggest gainers in the S&P 500 Wednesday, after the online travel company’s quarterly profit, revenue, and gross bookings all exceeded analysts’ estimates.

After markets closed Tuesday, Booking Holdings—the Norwalk, Conn.-based parent of travel brands Booking.com, Priceline, and KAYAK, as well as restaurant-booking platform OpenTable—reported adjusted earnings of $2.54 per share on revenue that increased 8% year-over-year to $7.35 billion. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha had expected $2.41 per share and $7.19 billion, respectively. Gross bookings were $51.0 billion, while analysts were looking for $49.4 billion.

“The world remains an uncertain place, with the Middle East conflict and related macroeconomic developments continuing to affect travel demand, both directly and indirectly, through the impact on major Middle East transit corridors and higher travel costs. These dynamics create near-term volatility,” Booking Holdings CEO Glenn Fogel said in prepared remarks. “Yet, we know from decades of experience that the underlying desire to explore, connect, and experience the world is remarkably resilient, and travel demand recovers once the underlying disruption subsides.”

Fogel said that “this resiliency was clearly evident during the second quarter.” He added that “while long-haul international travel remained pressured by elevated airline prices and reduced capacity due to the conflict in the Middle East, domestic and intra-regional travel remained relatively healthy across many parts of the world.”

Even with Wednesday’s surge, shares remain down about 4% this year.

Even with Wednesday’s gains, Disney shares are still down about 11% this year
Credit: Erik McGregor / LightRocket via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Disney shares rose Wednesday after the company exceeded profit estimates.
• The entertainment giant also announced a partnership with TikTok to bring short-form videos to the Disney+ app.

Disney stock is on the rise after the entertainment giant beat profit estimates and announced a new partnership with TikTok.

Shares of The Walt Disney Company (DIS) were up 3% in recent trading, making it one of the leading gainers on the Dow, after the company posted strong quarterly profits. Disney reported adjusted earnings of $2.06 per share for its fiscal third quarter, topping the $1.84 Visible Alpha consensus. Its revenue rose 7% year-over-year to $25.25 billion, slightly below the $25.41 billion analysts had forecast.

Disney credited global growth in its Experiences segment, the successful theatrical and merchandise release of “Toy Story 5,” and strong ESPN viewership numbers during the NBA playoffs as factors that helped expand its reach during the quarter. Revenue grew across all three of Disney’s segments, with 6% growth in Entertainment, a 4% bump in Sports, and a 10% jump in Experiences.

Also on Wednesday, Disney announced a new partnership with TikTok, giving creators on the platform “access to assets related to hundreds of films and series,” with short-form videos from TikTok also living on the Disney+ app. The deal comes after Disney previously had an agreement with OpenAI to bring AI-generated videos from its Sora app to Disney+, only for that deal to fall apart when OpenAI decided to shutter the costly Sora service months later. 

Wednesday’s report was Disney’s second with new CEO Josh D’Amaro leading the company after he succeeded Bob Iger back in March.

Stock Closes at Lowest Level Since the Company’s Mid-June IPO

SpaceX shares were the biggest decliner in the Nasdaq 100 on Wednesday.
Credit: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• SpaceX shares dropped after the company’s earnings, erasing gains from the prior session.
• Investors are concerned about whether AI spending will lead to sufficient profitability.
• The upcoming expiration of IPO lockups could increase shares on the market and pressure prices.

Investors bought into the SpaceX story ahead of earnings. Now they’re selling it again. 

Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) fell 14% Wednesday to around $108, the lowest closing level since the company’s historic IPO in mid-June. The sell-off erased the previous session’s 9% gain, which preceded the release of SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded entity. 

There was certainly reason for optimism in last night’s results, which included quarterly revenue and operating profit better than were expected by Wall Street, as well as CEO Elon Musk’s vision of a trillion-dollar revenue year as soon as 2029, substantially earlier than most analysts expect. 

But investors in SpaceX seem largely concerned with the same question that has lately weighed on some of the hottest corners of the AI trade: Even if big spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure leads to big revenue growth, will it be big, or profitable, enough? Several of the Street’s bullish analysts think it will, though investors seem more circumspect.

Meanwhile, investors are also eyeing the looming expiration of post-IPO lockups that stand to significantly boost the number of shares on the market and could put more downward pressure on the stock, which remains below its mid-June listing price. 

SpaceX stock is now 20% below its IPO price and more than 50% off the record high around $225 set in its first few days of trading in June.

UPDATE: This article has been updated with Wednesday’s closing stock price information.

Shopify shares soared before the bell Wednesday.
Credit: Cheng Xin / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Shopify shares surged after the company reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings and revenue growth.
• The company’s gross merchandise volume rose 32% year-over-year, exceeding analyst expectations.

Shopify just had what its president called a “monster quarter.” Its outlook for the current quarter doesn’t look too shabby, either.

Shares of Shopify (SHOP) are soaring 22% before the opening bell Wednesday after the Ottawa-based e-commerce company reported better-than-expected second-quarter results and issued a rosy outlook.

Shopify posted adjusted earnings of $0.42 on revenue that increased 34% year-over-year to $3.58 billion. Analysts polled by Visible Alpha had expected $0.40 per share and $3.46 billion, respectively. The firm’s Q2 gross merchandise volume came in at $115.57 billion, up 32% and above expectations of $111.98 billion.

“This was a monster quarter: more than 30% growth in GMV AND revenue AND gross profit AND free cash flow,” Shopify President Harley Finkelstein said. “We power every kind of business, and with AI, we’re expanding what’s possible for all of them.”

For the third quarter, Shopify sees revenue growing “at a low-thirties percentage rate,” while Visible Alpha consensus stands at 26.9%.

Through Tuesday, Shopify shares were down about 23% since the start of the year.

News of the day for Aug. 5, 2026

The Dow has gained 1600 points over the past two sessions.
Credit: Timothy A. Clary / AFP / Getty Images

Stock futures are pointing to modest gains this morning after the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 soared to record highs yesterday; SpaceX shares are tumbling after the Elon Musk-led company released its first quarterly results as a public company; Shares of chipmaker AMD shares are also down despite a solid earnings report; Disney, Eli Lilly and other noteworthy companies reported earnings this morning; and Uber shares are down as lackluster results outweigh a positive robotaxi development. Here’s what you need to know today.

Stock Futures Rise as Market Looks to Add to Record Highs

Stock futures are higher this morning as investors digest a steady flow of earnings from major companies. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were up 0.4% recently, while futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.2%. The major indexes surged yesterday, with the Dow and S&P closing at fresh record highs thanks to investor optimism about strong earnings reports and hopes that the Iran war could end soon. WTI crude oil futures were up 0.5% at just under $81 per barrel after two straight days of sharp declines, as investors wait to see if a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz will be reached. Gold futures were up 2% at $4,250 an ounce, trading at their highest level since mid-June, while bitcoin was little-changed at around $64,100. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects interest rates on loans, ticked lower to 4.61%.

SpaceX Stock Tumbles After First Earnings Report

Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) are falling this morning, poised to give back most of yesterday’s gains. The Elon Musk-led company’s stock jumped more than 9% yesterday ahead of the company’s first earnings report as a publicly traded company, its biggest one-day gain since its early days of trading. SpaceX said after Tuesday’s closing bell that its second-quarter revenue nearly doubled year-over-year while its loss narrowed. Musk was optimistic about SpaceX’s revenue growth opportunities, but investors appeared wary about spending trends in the company’s AI business, following the recent trend of investor concerns over big tech’s massive spending plans for data centers and hardware used to run AI products. SpaceX shares were down down 11% in recent premarket trading. The stock remains well below its $135 IPO price and has lost about half of its value since hitting a record high above $225 in mid-June.

AMD Stock Drops Despite Strong Results

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares also slumping this morning even as the chipmaker posted results that topped Wall Street expectations. After yesterday’s closing bell, AMD reported $11.54 billion in second-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings of $1.66 per share, each topping the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. AMD’s third-quarter revenue forecast also beat estimates, but its guidance for gross margins was merely in line with consensus. Investors may have had higher hopes for the chipmaker’s outlook, and have also potentially become harder to impress after the recent recovery for the AI trade that followed last month’s slump amid AI bubble fears. AMD stock was down 9% ahead of the opening bell, on track to erase yesterday’s 7% jump.

Disney, Eli Lilly, CVS Shares on the Move After Earnings

Investors are also digesting a flurry of earnings reports released this morning, led by big names including Disney (DIS) and Eli Lilly (LLY). Shares of Dow component Disney were up 3% after the media giant topped fiscal third-quarter estimates, and announced a content sharing deal with TikTok to bring short-form videos from the platform onto Disney+. Eli Lilly stock was up 5% after the drugmaker’s second-quarter results handily topped Wall Street expectations, as sales of its weight loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound continue to grow, with the company also lifting its full-year sales forecast. CVS Health (CVS) shares were up 3% after the pharmacy chain and Aetna parent reported strong results and lifted its profit outlook. Investors will get more reports after the closing bell today, with Western Digital (WDC), Sandisk (SNDK) and DoorDash (DASH) all scheduled to release results.

Uber Slips as Lackluster Results Outweigh Robotaxi News

Uber (UBER) stock is falling premarket after the ridesharing and food delivery giant reported lackluster earnings, outweighing the news of a significant step in its robotaxi efforts. Revenue fell short of Wall Street estimates compiled by Visible Alpha, while adjusted EPS came in just 1 cent higher than expected. Ahead of the report, Uber announced that one of its autonomous vehicle partners, Wayve, has received approval to operate supervised robotaxi rides in London with its fleet of electric Ford (F) Mustang vehicles. The company said a few of the 100,000 people who have signed up to be early riders will get to try them later this summer before a full launch is announced. Uber shares were down nearly 4% recently.

Sandisk and Western Digital are some of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 for 2026.
Credit: Avishek Das / SOPA Images / LightRocket / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Sandisk and Western Digital are due to report earnings after the closing bell Wednesday.
• Though shares of the hard drive makers have pulled back from their highs in recent weeks, they’re still among the S&P 500’s top performers for 2026.
• Both companies are seen reporting sizable sales gains as big tech companies spend billions of dollars on hardware used in data centers.

Sandisk and Western Digital are both slated to report earnings after the closing bell Wednesday, in what could be an opportunity for the companies to rekindle investors’ enthusiasm for their stocks.

Through Tuesday’s close, shares of Sandisk (SNDK) and Western Digital (WDC) have slipped 39% and 31%, respectively, from their June highs amid a broader pullback in the AI trade in recent weeks. Still, both remain among the S&P 500’s top performers for 2026, with Western Digital shares more than tripling in value since the year began, while Sandisk shares are up some 500%. The benchmark index has climbed 13% over the same period.

Data storage and memory makers were some of the hottest stocks in the first half of the year, as the AI boom drove up demand. Sandisk, Western Digital, and others were also able to hike prices in the face of industrywide shortages, boosting their sales and profits to record levels. Western Digital used to own Sandisk, acquiring the company in 2016 before announcing plans to spin off the flash memory business in late 2023, with Sandisk returning to the public markets early last year.

Why This Matters to Investors

The reports from Sandisk and Western Digital could mark the latest test of sentiment around the AI trade after recent results from big tech companies showed their spending continues to grow.

Morgan Stanley analysts recently wrote that they see demand for Sandisk’s hardware as “unequivocally strong, and durable,” with some data center customers concerned demand could continue to outpace supply for the next two years. The analysts also said they expect a strong beat and raised outlook from Western Digital, writing that the results could be “an important catalyst to reignite confidence in the [hard disk drive] bull case, and help to reinforce confidence in the broader AI infrastructure spending cycle.”

Western Digital is projected to report fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $3.71 billion, up 43% year-over-year, along with adjusted earnings of $3.35 per share, nearly doubling from the same time a year ago. Sandisk’s revenue is seen more than quadrupling to $8.71 billion, with adjusted EPS of $35.45, up from 29 cents per share in the year-ago quarter, according to estimates collected by Visible Alpha.

Wall Street analysts are broadly bullish on both of the hardware makers. All four analysts tracked by Visible Alpha have called Sandisk a “buy,” while the seven covering Western Digital are split between four “buy” and three neutral ratings. Their average price target of $2,250 for Sandisk would represents nearly 60% upside to the stock’s close Tuesday, while their mean target of $656 for Western Digital would suggest a roughly 20% rise.

Job seekers meet with recruiters a job fair on June 30, 2026.
Credit: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The U.S. labor market may no longer need job growth to maintain a stable unemployment rate due to demographic shifts.
• The “break-even” rate of job creation, which is the level at which the unemployment rate remains steady, is falling and could turn negative.
• A declining break-even rate could change how the Federal Reserve interprets job losses and adjusts interest rates.

Whenever the U.S. economy loses jobs in a given month, it’s a red flag for the health of the labor market—but that might not be true for much longer.

That’s according to a recent analysis by economists at Oxford Economics, who found that because of demographic trends, the unemployment rate could stay stable in the coming years even if employers fail to add jobs or even reduce them.

This is possible because the “break-even” rate of job creation—that is, the number of jobs required to keep the unemployment rate stable—has been falling and could go below zero next year for the first time in history.

“The U.S. labor market’s speed limit is low and heading lower,” Matthew Martin, senior U.S. economist at Oxford, wrote in the analysis.

The break-even rate isn’t an official statistic, and it’s more of a fuzzy estimate than an exact science. Still, it’s an important factor to consider when judging the health of the labor market. The figure is often based on the official nonfarm payrolls report, the government survey that shows how many jobs were created or lost each month, as well as the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the workforce that is seeking employment but can’t find it. As the labor force grows, either because of immigration or because native-born people enter the job market, the economy must add a certain number of jobs each month to prevent the unemployment rate from rising.

Since the 1960s, the economy has had to add about 100,000 jobs per month to keep pace with the booming population and influx of immigrants, according to research by the Federal Reserve. The breakeven rate rose to a record high, or close to it, after the pandemic, when people rejoined the workforce and a surge of immigrants came looking for jobs in a red-hot hiring market.

All that changed in 2025 when President Donald Trump cracked down on immigration. At the same time, workforce growth has slowed, largely due to the aging population. That’s sent the breakeven rate into a nosedive from which it may not recover before plunging into negative territory. Today it’s around 50,000, Oxford estimated.

The low breakeven rate explains why the unemployment rate fell last month to 4.2%, near historic lows, despite only adding 57,000 jobs.

All this has implications for the Federal Reserve. In the past, reductions in nonfarm payrolls have signaled weakness in the labor market, leading the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate as it turns its attention to the labor side of its dual mandate to keep inflation low and employment high. That might not be true in the future.

“Given how low the breakeven pace of employment has fallen, a soft or even negative nonfarm payroll print won’t necessarily force the Fed to refocus on the labor market as has been the case in recent years,” Martin wrote.