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Job seekers meet with recruiters a job fair on June 30, 2026.
Credit: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• The U.S. labor market may no longer need job growth to maintain a stable unemployment rate due to demographic shifts.
• The “break-even” rate of job creation, which is the level at which the unemployment rate remains steady, is falling and could turn negative.
• A declining break-even rate could change how the Federal Reserve interprets job losses and adjusts interest rates.

Whenever the U.S. economy loses jobs in a given month, it’s a red flag for the health of the labor market—but that might not be true for much longer.

That’s according to a recent analysis by economists at Oxford Economics, who found that because of demographic trends, the unemployment rate could stay stable in the coming years even if employers fail to add jobs or even reduce them.

This is possible because the “break-even” rate of job creation—that is, the number of jobs required to keep the unemployment rate stable—has been falling and could go below zero next year for the first time in history.

“The U.S. labor market’s speed limit is low and heading lower,” Matthew Martin, senior U.S. economist at Oxford, wrote in the analysis.

The break-even rate isn’t an official statistic, and it’s more of a fuzzy estimate than an exact science. Still, it’s an important factor to consider when judging the health of the labor market. The figure is often based on the official nonfarm payrolls report, the government survey that shows how many jobs were created or lost each month, as well as the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the workforce that is seeking employment but can’t find it. As the labor force grows, either because of immigration or because native-born people enter the job market, the economy must add a certain number of jobs each month to prevent the unemployment rate from rising.

Since the 1960s, the economy has had to add about 100,000 jobs per month to keep pace with the booming population and influx of immigrants, according to research by the Federal Reserve. The breakeven rate rose to a record high, or close to it, after the pandemic, when people rejoined the workforce and a surge of immigrants came looking for jobs in a red-hot hiring market.

All that changed in 2025 when President Donald Trump cracked down on immigration. At the same time, workforce growth has slowed, largely due to the aging population. That’s sent the breakeven rate into a nosedive from which it may not recover before plunging into negative territory. Today it’s around 50,000, Oxford estimated.

The low breakeven rate explains why the unemployment rate fell last month to 4.2%, near historic lows, despite only adding 57,000 jobs.

All this has implications for the Federal Reserve. In the past, reductions in nonfarm payrolls have signaled weakness in the labor market, leading the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate as it turns its attention to the labor side of its dual mandate to keep inflation low and employment high. That might not be true in the future.

“Given how low the breakeven pace of employment has fallen, a soft or even negative nonfarm payroll print won’t necessarily force the Fed to refocus on the labor market as has been the case in recent years,” Martin wrote.

Chipotle stock was one of the biggest decliners in the S&P 500 Tuesday afternoon.
Credit: Marcin Golba / NurPhoto via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Chipotle shares tumbled Tuesday after the chain pulled jalapeños tied to a Salmonella outbreak.
• The outbreak has affected at least 110 people, with most reporting eating at Chipotle, according to health officials.

Chipotle Mexican Grill’s stock is taking a hit after the chain pulled ingredients tied to a Salmonella outbreak.

Shares of Chipotle (CMG) dropped nearly 10% Tuesday, following a Bloomberg report the restaurant chain temporarily pulled jalapeños linked to a Salmonella outbreak in Minnesota. The state’s health department identified 110 cases, and of the 84 reached for an interview, 75 reported eating at Chipotle, with meal dates between June 14 and July 14.

“The cases that reported not eating at Chipotle ate at a variety of other Mexican-style restaurants,” Carlota Medus, Senior Epidemiologist Supervisor in the Minnesota Department of Health Foodborne Diseases Unit, said in a statement. Medus added that “based on all the evidence so far, the food that made people sick was served at other restaurants as well.”

Chipotle—which was not tied to the recent Cyclospora outbreak tied to shredded iceberg lettuce served at various Taco Bell restaurants in several Midwest states—was implicated in a series of foodborne-illness outbreaks between 2015 and 2018 and agreed to pay a $25 million fine to resolve criminal charges.

“We have a robust ingredient traceability system and, upon learning of a potential Salmonella outbreak in the supply chain impacting several food service retailers, we proactively identified jalapeños as a potential common ingredient from a common lot, removed them from the restaurants where they had been distributed, and replaced them with product from different growers,” Chipotle Chief Corporate Affairs and Food Safety Officer Laurie Schalow said in a statement.

“It is too soon for us to know if the outbreak is ongoing,” Medus said. “Given the measures Chipotle put in place, we are not concerned about Chipotle; but it is possible that the outbreak is ongoing if the contaminated food item is being served elsewhere. We do expect the case count to increase even if the illnesses occurred a couple of weeks ago, since it takes us a while to detect cases in surveillance.”

With Tuesday’s slide, Chipotle shares have moved into negative territory for 2026.

Shares of AMD were up about 140% for 2026 through Tuesday’s close
Credit: Costfoto / NurPhoto / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Advanced Micro Devices shares slid in extended trading Tuesday, despite quarterly results that topped analysts’ estimates.
• AMD’s revenue outlook also topped Street projections, though its gross margin forecast was roughly in line. Investors may have been looking for more.

Advanced Micro Devices investors might be getting harder to impress.

Shares of AMD (AMD) were down nearly 8% in extended trading Tuesday, despite quarterly results that topped Wall Street’s estimates. The stock had climbed 7% in Thursday’s regular session ahead of the release, against a backdrop of broader market gains amid growing optimism about a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. 

AMD posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.66 on revenue that jumped 50% year-over-year to a record $11.54 billion in the second quarter, above estimates compiled by Visible Alpha, as data center sales more than doubled. Its gross margin came in at 54%, up from 40% a year earlier.

CEO Lisa Su told investors in a release that AI is “driving a significant expansion in demand for compute across all of our markets, and our leadership portfolio and growing customer visibility position us exceptionally well to capture this expanding opportunity and deliver substantial revenue and earnings growth in the years ahead.”

AMD said it expects current-quarter revenue of $12.7 billion to $13.3 billion, also above analysts’ estimates, though its gross margin forecast was roughly in line at 56%. Investors may have been looking for more.

Ahead of the results, Wall Street analysts were broadly bullish on AMD, with seven of the nine analysts followed by Visible Alpha calling the stock a “buy,” compared to two neutral ratings.

The shares were up about 140% for 2026 through Tuesday’s close, though they’ve pulled back from their June highs in recent weeks.

Several major oil producers were among the S&P 500’s biggest decliners Tuesday.
Credit: TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Oil prices and energy stocks fell Tuesday amid expectations of a U.S.-Iran deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC in a televised interview that such a deal could be reached later today or tomorrow.

Oil and gas stocks are sliding on signs the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon.

NRG Energy (NRG) and Diamondback Energy (FANG) were among the biggest decliners in the S&P 500 recently, with shares down about 18% and 3%, respectively, while broader markets gained amid growing optimism about a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. Shares of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) were down 1%, while BP (BP) shares fell 4% despite posting a solid earnings this morning. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped more than 5% to just under $76 a barrel.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC in a televised interview this morning that an Iran deal could be reached today or tomorrow that would open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has yet to confirm that any talks are ongoing with the U.S. this week.

Energy stocks have been on a hot streak lately, as tensions in the Middle East and supply disruptions sent oil prices soaring. Bank of America analysts wrote Monday that energy stocks rose 12.5% in July, making it the best-performing sector on Wall Street.

President Donald Trump on Monday criticized the industry and said companies have raised prices too much amid the disruptions caused by the Iran war.

Disney shares are down about 14% since the start of the year.
Credit: Mike Kemp / Contributor / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Disney is scheduled to report earnings Wednesday morning, with recent options pricing suggesting traders see the stock swinging up to 5% by the end of the week.
• Disney is projected to report growing revenue and profits, despite worries about a pullback by inflation-weary consumers.

The Walt Disney Company’s latest earnings report is due ahead of the opening bell Wednesday, with traders expecting a big move from the entertainment giant’s stock.

Recent options pricing indicates that traders are expecting Disney (DIS) stock to swing up to 5% by the end of the week. A move of that size from Tuesday afternoon’s level around $98 could see Disney shares rise back above $103, or slip below $94.

Disney shares are down nearly 14% since the start of the year, amid worries that higher fuel prices and inflation driven by the Iran war could slow theme park attendance.

Why This Matters to Investors

Investors will likely be watching closely for signs of changes under the leadership of new CEO Josh D’Amaro, who took over back in March.

Ahead of the report, UBS analysts lifted their price target to $138 from $133, writing they expect profit growth to accelerate in the second half of Disney’s fiscal year, thanks to revenue gains from Disney’s Experiences segment.

Disney is projected to report adjusted earnings of $1.84 per share for the fiscal third quarter, up from $1.61 last year, on a 7% year-over-year jump in revenue to $25.41 billion, per Visible Alpha estimates.

Wall Street is overwhelmingly bullish on Disney, with all seven analysts tracked by Visible Alpha recommending buying the stock. Their mean price target of $132 would suggest nearly 35% upside from Monday’s close.

A regulatory filing revealed Amazon founder Jeff Bezos (R) plans to sell 15 million shares of the tech giant worth more than $4 billion.
Credit: David Paul Morris / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Amazon shares slid Tuesday after founder Jeff Bezos filed plans to sell over $4 billion worth of Amazon stock.
• Shares of Amazon are still up about 20% year-to-date, boosted by strong earnings and revenue growth.

Amazon’s stock hit a record high Monday. It’s pulling back today following the news that founder Jeff Bezos plans to part with some shares.

Amazon (AMZN) shares were down 2% recently, leading Dow Jones Industrial Average decliners on a day when the broader index gained, after a regulatory filing revealed that Bezos intends to sell 15 million shares worth more than $4.07 billion.

The Form 144 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission also indicated that on May 4, Bezos donated 220,200 shares to non-profit organizations.

Amazon joined the $3 trillion market cap club for the first time yesterday, when its shares reached as high as $287.20 and closed at $284.02. Shares had soared since Amazon reported better-than-expected profit and revenue, with Amazon Web Services sales rising 37% year-over-year to $42.2 billion, nearly $2 billion above estimates.

Even with today’s pullback, Amazon shares are up 20% since the start of the year.

CEO Alex Karp said in a letter to shareholders that Palantir’s core business in the U.S. “continues to expand at an unrelenting and breakneck pace”
Credit: Kevin Dietsch / Getty Images)

Key Takeaways

• Palantir shares surged after the data analytics software provider reported better-than-expected earnings and issued a rosy outlook.
• Wall Street analysts lauded Palantir’s revenue growth and strong demand.

Palantir’s stock turned in its best performance since early 2024 on Tuesday, after reporting better-than-expected earnings and issuing rosy guidance.

Shares of Palantir (PLTR) rose nearly 30%, leading gainers in the S&P 500 on a strong day for tech stocks, a day after the software maker released strong results and boosted its outlook. It was the biggest one-day gain for the stock since Feb. 2024, when a strong earnings report sent Palantir shares 31% higher.

William Blair analysts wrote that Palantir’s “stellar performance defies concerns” about competition from OpenAI and Anthropic for business customers, and that there’s “no public software company or defense contractor with this combination of revenue growth and profitability.”

Morgan Stanley called Palantir’s revenue growth in every quarter for the last three years a “remarkable achievement,” and said sales look poised to accelerate for a 13th straight quarter with “extraordinary” demand.

Jefferies analysts are more cautious, writing after the report that they would still prefer other AI and software stocks like Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN) and Snowflake (SNOW). They highlighted concerns with Palantir’s international growth, and said its valuation “leaves little room for a normalization in growth or execution slippage.”

The stock had been in need of a boost, coming into yesterday’s report down some 30% this year amid worries about AI disrupting the software industry and last year’s rally leaving the company overvalued. Even with Tuesday’s gains, shares are still down more than 8% year-to-date.

UPDATE: This article has been updated to include Tuesday’s closing stock price information.

Wall Street analysts are broadly bullish on Walmart’s shares.
Credit: Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Oppenheimer downgraded Walmart stock to a neutral rating, citing reduced outperformance potential.
• Analysts highlighted U.S. pharmacy revenue headwinds, valuation concerns, and overly optimistic Street forecasts.

Shares of Walmart started the year strong. Now they’ve cooled, and some analysts are offering up reasons for further caution. 

Oppenheimer analysts on Tuesday downgraded Walmart (WMT) stock to a neutral “perform” rating, withdrawing a $140 per share price target that represented a 26% premium to yesterday’s close around $111 and was roughly in line with the Visible Alpha mean. 

The analysts cited three reasons they now see a “less compelling outperformance case” for the stock: revenue headwinds facing the U.S. pharmacy business that could hurt same-store sales, a “peakish” valuation, and Wall Street forecasts that they characterized as “well ahead” of the company’s guidance. 

“Although we are stepping to the sidelines, we still remain very upbeat on [Walmart’s] longer-term prospects,” the analysts wrote. 

Walmart’s shares, which were edging lower in early trading today, are a bit below flat in 2026. The company is set to report its next set of quarterly financial results on Aug. 20. 

Caterpillar shares soared 10% at the bell Tuesday.
Credit: Patrick T. Fallon / AFP via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Caterpillar’s second-quarter profit and revenue far exceeded analysts’ expectations, driven by record sales above $20 billion.

• The company’s shares surged in early trading, boosting the Dow.

Caterpillar’s blockbuster second quarter is sending its stock—and the Dow Jones Industrial Average—sharply higher this morning.

Shares of Caterpillar (CAT) are up 8% in early trading Tuesday after the company known for its construction equipment reported profit and revenue far above analysts’ estimates. The Irving, Texas-based firm posted adjusted earnings of $8.17 per share on revenue that increased 24% year-over-year to a record $20.54 billion. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha had expected $6.10 per share and $18.95 billion, respectively.

Caterpillar’s construction and power generation equipment are in high demand as big tech companies build new data centers, and chief executive Joe Creed said the firm’s “strong order rates and a growing backlog reflect broadening momentum across all three of our primary segments.”

The Dow jumped 1% in early trading. Since it is a price-weighted index, the blue-chip index gives more influence to higher-priced stocks, and Caterpillar shares entered Tuesday at just over $830 apiece.
With today’s early surge to about $895, Caterpillar shares, which are up nearly 60% this year, added about 385 points to the Dow’s gain.

News of the day for Aug. 4, 2026

The Dow is on track to add to its record high this morning, while the S&P 500 finished yesterday’s session just 20 points away from an all-time high of its own.
Credit: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

Stock futures are higher amid a flurry of earnings reports after the Dow closed at a record high yesterday; Palantir shares are soaring after the software maker’s quarterly results topped Wall Street estimates; SpaceX is scheduled to release its first earnings report as a pubic company after the closing bell; chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices is also set to release results this afternoon; and a number of big-name companies including Dow components Caterpillar and McDonald’s have released earnings already this morning. Here’s what you need to know today.

Stock Futures Rise After Dow Closes at Record

Stock futures are pointing to gains this morning as investors assess a barrage of earnings reports from big-name companies, with even more slated for this afternoon. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the tech-heavy Nasdaq were recently up 1.1%, while S&P 500 futures added 0.3%. The major indexes surged to kick off August trading yesterday, with the Dow closing at a record high and the S&P 500 finishing just 20 points away from an all-time high. WTI crude oil futures were down more than 3% at $77.50, after falling sharply yesterday amid hopes about possible peace talks following news over the weekend that the U.S. had paused strikes in Iran. Gold futures were up nearly 1% recently at $4,125 an ounce, while bitcoin was little-changed at $63,700. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which affects interest rates on loans, ticked lower to 4.67% after hitting its highest levels since early 2025 late last week.

Palantir Stock Jumps On Strong Earnings, Outlook

Shares of Palantir (PLTR) are soaring in premarket trading after the software maker raised its outlook and posted quarterly results that topped analysts’ expectations. After yesterday’s closing bell, Palantir said it now expects $8.15 billion to $8.16 billion in revenue this year, up from its previous projection of $7.65 billion to $7.66 billion. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.41 on revenue that nearly doubled year-over-year to $1.93 billion in the second quarter, above the $0.35 and $1.81 billion analysts had forecast. The stock has been in need of a boost, coming into yesterday’s report down some 30% this year. Shares were up 16% ahead of the opening bell, on track to hit their highest level in two months.

SpaceX Set to Release First Earnings Report Since IPO

Nearly two months after carrying out the largest IPO ever, SpaceX (SPCX) is set to release its first earnings report as a public company after the closing bell. Analysts expect Elon Musk’s rocket, connectivity and AI company to report second-quarter revenue of $6.85 billion, up nearly 70% year-over-year, with a loss widening to 19 cents per share compared to 10 cents a year ago. SpaceX shares are 15% below their $135 IPO price and have lost nearly 50% since hitting a high above $225 in their first few days of trading. The stock is likely to face more volatility in the coming days, not just in response to the results, but because the release of the earnings report triggers the first lockup expiration, giving pre-IPO investors and insiders the opportunity to start selling shares later this week. SpaceX shares were up 3% ahead of the opening bell.

AMD Results Due After The Closing Bell

Another big tech name scheduled to report after the closing bell is Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Analysts are looking for revenue of $11.34 billion, up almost 50% year-over-year, along with adjusted earnings of $1.61 per share, more than tripling from the same time last year. The chip stock has more than doubled since the start of the year as investors have piled into hardware stocks as a key winner of the AI boom. However, shares have pulled back in recent weeks from a record high set in late June amid uncertainty across the AI trade. AMD stock was up 5% in recent premarket trading.

McDonald’s, Caterpillar Headline This Morning’s Earnings Reports

While investors are looking ahead to this afternoon’s tech-focused results, a number of big names reported results this morning. McDonald’s (MCD) shares were up 1% after the fast food giant beat profit estimates amid its efforts to win back customers by focusing on value. Shares of fellow Dow component Caterpillar (CAT) soared 11% ahead of the opening bell after the company topped estimates, with demand for its construction and power generation equipment surging as big tech companies build new data centers. Spotify (SPOT) shares were down 4% as the streamer hit 300 million premium subscribers for the first time, but posted earnings that fell short of analyst forecasts. Shares of BP (BP) were little-changed after the oil and gas giant reported that profits more than doubled year-over-year, a day after President Trump attacked oil companies for making too much money as his war in Iran drove up oil and fuel prices.