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News of the day for July 13, 2026

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted gains last week, while the Dow fell slightly to snap a four-week winning streak.
Credit: Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images

Stock futures are pointing to a lower open to kick off a busy week of earnings and economic data; chip and memory stocks are sinking this morning ahead of SK Hynix’s first full week of trading in the U.S.; new fighting in the Middle East is sending oil prices higher; Apple has sued OpenAI for allegedly stealing trade secrets as the ChatGPT maker looks to launch its own hardware business; and the earnings calendar this week includes reports from big banks, Netflix and UnitedHealth Group. Here’s what you need to know today.

Stock Futures Fall After Winning Week For S&P 500, Nasdaq

Stock futures are lower Monday while oil prices are climbing as investors react to the latest fighting between the U.S. and Iran. Futures tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were recently down 0.9% and 0.3%, respectively, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were off 0.1%. The major indexes each rose on Friday, giving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq a second straight week of gains, while the Dow ended the week lower, snapping a four-week winning streak. WTI crude oil futures were up more than 3% to nearly $74 per barrel, while gold futures fell 1% to $4,070 an ounce. Bitcoin was trading at $63,000, down from a weekend high of $64,500. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects interest rates on loans, ticked higher to 4.58% and remains near its highest levels since May.

Tech Stocks Slide as SK Hynix Set for First Full Week of U.S. Trading

A number of tech stocks are falling premarket including AI heavyweights such as Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), Micron (MU) and more. South Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix (SKHY) will be in focus after the stock made its U.S. trading debut on Friday in the largest listing ever by a foreign company. SK Hynix shares fell 15% Monday on the Korea Exchange. Trading this week in SK Hynix could reveal how investors are feeling about the AI trade after SpaceX’s (SPCX) volatile performance since its IPO last month. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) was down nearly 3% in recent premarket trading, while the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) tumbled 8%.

U.S., Iran Fighting Escalates Again

Tensions flared in the Middle East again over the weekend, as Iran has looked to continue asserting its control over the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. wants the oil shipping lane to reopen permanently. The U.S. military said it completed two new rounds of strikes against dozens of targets over the weekend in response to Iran attacking more ships traveling through the strait. Iran has launched its own attacks at fellow Gulf states that host U.S. military personnel. Both the U.S. and Iran have said following the latest attacks that the other does not control the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices, which earlier this month had fallen to their lowest levels since the start of the war, have risen in recent weeks as a ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. broke down.

Apple Sues OpenAI For Allegedly Stealing Trade Secrets

Apple (AAPL) has filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, alleging that the ChatGPT maker has used the hundreds of Apple employees it has hired to steal trade secrets. In a complaint filed late Friday in the Northern District of California District Court, Apple alleged that OpenAI and a pair of former Apple employees have coached Apple employees on how to skirt Apple’s security protocols and take top-secret information with them when leaving to work at OpenAI, and also encouraged those employees to bring parts and discuss secret projects in job interviews with OpenAI. Apple is accusing OpenAI of stealing trade secrets in order to launch its own hardware business, as the ChatGPT maker has reportedly considered making a range of AI-focused devices that could compete with Apple’s products. Apple shares, which have gained 16% so far this year, were little changed this morning.

What Investors Are Watching This Week

The second-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear this week, while investors will also be keeping close tabs on economic data and an appearance in Congress by the new head of the Federal Reserve. Tuesday is the biggest day of bank earnings, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C) all set to report results. Other reports this week include ASML Holding (ASML) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) on Wednesday, along with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), United Airlines (UAL), GE Aerospace (GE) and Netflix (NFLX) on Thursday. The June Consumer Price Index is set to be released Tuesday morning, which is also when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to testify in front of the House Financial Services Committee about the latest report on the economy the central bank submits to Congress twice a year. Warsh will appear before a Senate committee the following day.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concern about stagflation last quarter.
Credit: Qilai Shen / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Inflation will loom large this week, with the government releasing new Consumer Price Index data and big bank earnings shedding light on how Americans are keeping up.

The June CPI reading, due Tuesday, comes as factors shaping the cost-of-living are in flux and Federal Reserve officials eye the possibility of higher interest rates. The CPI jumped 4.2% year-over-year in May, driven by a spike in fuel prices.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has suggested that inflation risks may be abating, though he spoke before President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire over. Investors will get the chance to hear from Warsh when he testifies before Congress Tuesday.

Meanwhile, a handful of big national banks are reporting their second-quarter results this week. Bank executives are likely to discuss the outlook for IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, trading activity, and the state of the U.S. economy at large.

Most of the major banks handed in better-than-expected numbers last quarter, but their leaders laid out a number of concerns. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon worried about stagflation, to name one, while Goldman Sachs Chief David Solomon said uncertainty may limit IPOs.

Hurdles aside, financial sector stocks have recently been one of the stock market’s top-performing sectors. The industry is seeing commercial and industrial loan growth, and brisk capital markets activity thanks to enthusiasm over AI. Some analysts expect the momentum to continue.

Market Recap

Two out of three of the major U.S. indexes finished with weekly gains, with only the Dow retreating, as investors continued to assess and reassess the health of the AI trade. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq added 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively, last week, while the Dow fell 0.5%. Friday brought with it two big stock-market stories: the debut of South Korean chip giant SK Hynix, and the setting of a new closing low for shares of SpaceX. For more, read Friday’s market recap here. 

This Week’s Top Events

Here’s a rundown of major events happening this week. TradingView publishes a more detailed calendar, but clicking the link will take you off the Investopedia site.

• Tuesday, April 14: Bank of America (BAC) is set to report its second quarter results at 6:45 a.m., followed by a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET. A number of other banks are scheduled to hand in their numbers over the course of the morning, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C). Morgan Stanley (MS) will report Wednesday, followed by U.S. Bancorp (USB) on Thursday.
• Tuesday: The Bureau of Labor Statistics plans to release June Consumer Price Index readings at 8:30 a.m. ET. The cost-of-living index increased 4.2% on an annual basis in May, up from 3.8% in April.
• Tuesday: Warsh is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. ET. Twice a year, the central bank submits a report to Congress and sends its chief to discuss it. Lawmakers may ask Warsh about inflation and new Fed task forces, including those looking at how the central bank communicates, and collects and assesses data. The Fed chair will also appear before a Senate committee the following day.
• Wednesday, July 15: Conagra Brands (CAG) is slated to release its fourth fiscal-quarter results around 9 a.m. ET, followed by a question-and-answer session at 9:30 a.m. ET. S&P Global recently moved the parent company of Slim Jim and Swiss Miss from the S&P 500 to the S&P SmallCap 600.
• Wednesday: United Airlines (UAL) plans to publish its second-quarter results after the closing bell, and host a conference call on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET. The carrier posted strong results last quarter, with CEO Scott Kirby saying bookings suggest the “economy remains much stronger” than people think. But United also lowered its outlook due to high fuel costs.
• Thursday, July 16: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) is scheduled to hold a conference call on its second quarter results at 2 a.m. ET. The world’s largest contract chipmaker reported record sales last quarter, and has benefitted from recent enthusiasm for AI-related stocks.
• Thursday: UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is slated to release its second-quarter results before the opening bell and host a conference call at 8 a.m. ET. The health insurer exceeded expectations last quarter and raised its outlook. Shares have shot higher this year thanks in part to the government paying higher rates to Medicare Advantage administrators.
• Thursday: GE Aerospace (GE) is set to host a webcast on its second-quarter results at 7:30 a.m. ET, with the numbers expected shortly beforehand. The company, which makes engines for airplanes, beat expectations last quarter, but kept its outlook steady, citing the “dynamic geopolitical landscape.”
• Thursday: Netflix (NFLX) is slated to publish its second-quarter results at about 4 p.m. ET, followed by a live interview with analysts at 4:45 p.m. ET. Company shares fell last quarter when Netflix issued a softer-than-expected forecast and announced the departure of Reed Hastings, one of its cofounders. Share prices have fallen about 20% so far this year. 
• Friday, July 17: The University of Michigan is set to update its Consumer Sentiment Index at 10 a.m. ET. The survey recorded the worst public mood in its roughly 75-year history this May. Sentiment improved some in June, though consumers remained concerned about the labor market and inflation. 

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Credit: Tom Williams / CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will visit Congress next week, where he will field questions from lawmakers and restate the central bank’s determination to get inflation down to a 2% annual rate.
• In his first several public appearances as Fed chair, Warsh has said he won’t give any forward guidance about the central bank’s monetary policy.
• Warsh may face sharp questions from lawmakers about his plans to reform the Fed.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will visit Congress next week, where he will reaffirm the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation under control.

Warsh is scheduled to give his first semiannual report to lawmakers as Fed chair, appearing before the House Finance Committee Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday. He is expected to discuss the state of the Fed’s dual mandate from Congress to keep inflation low and employment high.

In the Fed’s view, inflation is too high, while the job market is stable and unemployment is low, according to the Fed’s monetary policy report released Friday in advance of Warsh’s testimony. The report emphasized the Fed’s goal of pushing inflation down to a 2% annual rate—the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE price index, rose 3.4% over 12 months in May.

“The Committee will deliver price stability,” the Fed said in the report, repeating language from the Federal Open Market Committee’s official statement at its most recent meeting last month.

What This Means For The Economy

Financial markets will scour Warsh’s testimony for clues about the Fed’s intentions for interest rate policy, though the chair has said he will cut back the “forward guidance” given.

Warsh will face the same lawmakers who voted in May to confirm him as Fed chair to replace outgoing chair, Jerome Powell. In his confirmation hearings, Warsh received a friendly reception from Republicans and took tough questions from Democratic members of the two committees. Some lawmakers grilled him on whether he would make decisions independently from President Donald Trump, who nominated him for the job.

At this week’s hearings, lawmakers might revisit questions about the Fed’s independence; Warsh’s plans to reshape the central bank; and how he intends to achieve the 2% inflation target.

On the latter score, they may not get any specific answers if Warsh stays true to form.

In his first few public appearances, Warsh has consistently brushed aside questions from reporters about whether the Fed should raise its benchmark interest rate in the coming months to push down inflation that’s spiked partly because of the Iran War’s fuel crunch.

The federal funds rate, which influences borrowing costs on all kinds of loans, is the Fed’s main tool for carrying out the central bank’s dual mandate. Warsh has said the Fed should give less “forward guidance” to markets about its forthcoming monetary policy moves, and has followed through on that policy in his early public communications.

The Fed voted to keep the rate steady at its most recent meeting in June, the first chaired by Warsh. Financial markets widely expect the Fed to have to raise it by at least a quarter-point before the year is out, and are pricing in a one-in-three chance the Federal Open Market Committee will do just that at its next meeting at the end of July, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

SK Hynix raised over $26 billion in its U.S. share offering on Friday.
Credit: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• U.S.-listed shares of SK Hynix surged in their first day of trading Fridaya sign investors remain eager to own the chief beneficiaries of the AI-driven memory shortage.
• SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron have all pulled back from their recent records, but are still among the best-performing stocks this year after a torrid second quarter.

South Korean memory-chip giant SK Hynix (SKHYV) soared in its American debut on Friday, suggesting U.S. investors remain bullish on memory stocks despite their recent pullback.

SK Hynix American Depositary Shares, or ADSs, began trading Friday at $172, about 15% above the offering price set yesterday. The stock finished the day at $168.49, off highs of $177.

SK Hynix is the largest-ever foreign listing on a U.S. exchange, netting more than $26 billion for the leading global supplier of high-bandwidth memory and NAND flash memory. The offering was reportedly seven times oversubscribed.

The listing comes at a critical moment for the memory and chip stocks that led the market to record highs last quarter. Shares of U.S. competitor Micron (MU) were up 325% since the start of the year when the company’s blow-out earnings report last month lifted them to a record high, but the stock has since slumped about 20%.

SK Hynix and Korean peer Samsung have followed similar trajectories, with the latter tumbling earlier this week despite reporting a 19-fold increase in quarterly profit.

Investors are debating the sustainability of the chipmakers’ meteoric growth and taking profits from the everything rally’s biggest winners. Some analysts believe the recent pullback could signal a shift in the rally as investors become more discerning with their dollars.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect the close of Friday’s trading.

Airlines Have Raised Fares to Offset Rising Fuel Costs Stemming from the Iran War

Delta shares have gained more than 25% since the start of the year.
Credit: Massimo Insabato / Archivio Massimo Insabato / Mondadori Portfolio / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Delta executives said Friday that the airline is continuing to see strong travel demand, despite the hike in airfares that followed a sharp rise in fuel costs for the airline.
• CEO Ed Bastian said ticket prices will remain at current levels even if fuel prices decline.
• The airline reported better-than-expected second-quarter results, as strong demand offset the nearly 80% year-over-year surge in fuel prices brought on by the Iran war.

Americans are still spending on travel, even as surging fuel prices have driven ticket prices higher, Delta Air Lines executives said Friday.

Speaking on a conference call after the airline reported earnings, Delta (DAL) CEO Ed Bastian said the economy has remained “resilient,” with Delta’s customers prioritizing experiences like air travel even amid rising ticket prices. Bastian said he expects Delta’s revenue growth should “remain sustainable” despite the higher ticket prices, as airfares have grown slower than inflation in recent years, leaving room for them to stay at current levels even as fuel prices start to come down.

In a CNBC interview Friday morning, Bastian said Delta customers seem to still be feeling “the post-COVID effect, where people lost so much time and they didn’t have the opportunity to do what they wanted to do in life,” and said the trend is true across different generations.

Why This Matters to Investors

Delta’s results could serve as a positive indicator for how other airlines performed in the second quarter, while the record high fuel costs could be cause for concern for the airlines’ margins if oil prices move higher once again.

Delta topped Wall Street estimates with its second-quarter results this morning, reporting adjusted earnings of $1.56 per share on $19.76 billion in revenue, which rose 19% year-over-year. Analysts had forecast adjusted EPS would come in at $1.51, with revenue of $19.02 billion, per estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. The company said the second quarter brought the biggest fuel expense in Delta’s history at $4.4 billion, up 77% year-over-year.

Delta is the first major airline to report second-quarter results, with reports due to be released by American Airlines (AAL), United Airlines (UAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV), and Alaska Air Group (ALK) over the next two weeks as earnings season kicks into high gear.

Despite the solid results, Delta shares were down 2% in recent trading, while shares of rivals including United, American, Southwest and Alaska Airlines each fell about 1%.

Shares of airlines and other travel-related stocks have come under pressure this week as renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran has pushed up oil prices in recent days, after several weeks of relative calm had pushed oil prices to their lowest levels since the early days of the war.

Meta’s shares have taken off to start the second half of the year.
Credit: Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Meta led S&P 500 gainers on Friday as Wall Street welcomed its push to monetize the hundreds of billions its spending on AI infrastructure.
• Shares are up nearly 20% so far this quarter, rebounding after posting one of the worst first-half performances among mega-cap tech stocks.

Meta was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 on Friday as investors continued to cheer the social media giant’s push to monetize its AI investments. 

In an internal memo, Meta (META) laid out plans to double its cloud computing capacity to 14 gigawatts next year and begin producing its own AI chips with designer Broadcom (AVGO) in September, Reuters reported on Thursday. On Thursday, Meta also released its latest AI model, Muse Spark 1.1, which developers can pay to use through a new API platform. 

The shares rose 6% on Friday after jumping nearly 5% yesterday. Meta stock came into this week down 12% since the start of the year. Friday’s gains erased those losses and put shares up 1% year-to-date.

Why This Is Important

Meta’s taken a different approach to AI investments than its hyperscaler peers, investing huge sums to train AI models primarily for its own use. Recent developments suggest the company is pivoting to a third-party service provider model, a strategy that investors are cheering.

Wall Street started to ask questions about Meta’s AI infrastructure spending this year, with some investors expressing concern the social media giant is spending hundreds of billions on data centers for its own use, unlike Alphabet (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN), which sell computing capacity to cloud customers. 

Meta has been one of Big Tech’s laggards this year. It was the only Magnificent Seven stock to fall in both the first and second quarters. And its 15% first-half decline was the second-worst of the Mag Seven, trailing only Microsoft’s (MSFT) 23% slump. 

Sentiment has improved in the second half. Shares popped 9% on July 1 following reports the company is considering renting out unused computing capacity to third parties, similar to SpaceX’s (SPCX) $1.25 billion-per-month agreement with Anthropic. Shares are up nearly 20% since that report. 

Bank of America analyst Justin Post, in a note earlier this week, argued Wall Street is undervaluing Meta’s AI infrastructure. Post estimates investors are valuing Meta’s computing capacity at just $4 billion per gigawatt, compared with Amazon’s $59 billion and Alphabet’s $110 billion. Post believes it’s worth $12 billion per GW, with the potential for “significant upside considering specialized AI capacity that Meta is building.” According to Post, SpaceX’s recent deals with Anthropic and Google valued its specialized capacity at about $50 billion per GW.

Investor enthusiasm for Meta’s AI push has offset regulatory and legal headwinds facing its core social media business. The EU Commission on Friday said in a preliminary report that Meta violated its Digital Services Act with “addictive” features like infinite scroll and autoplay. The commission told Meta to change the violating design features, or risk facing a fine of up to 6% of its global revenue. 

Meta faces mounting scrutiny of its social media platforms and their impact on youth mental health and safety. The company lost two trials centered on child safety earlier this year, potentially setting a precedent for a slew of similar cases being litigated. 

Update—July 10, 2026: This article was updated after initial publication with stock performance as of Friday’s close.

July hasn’t been kind to SpaceX investors.
Credit: Kevin Carter / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• SpaceX stock finished its first month on public markets below the price at which it started trading in mid-June.
• The stock got some good news this week, with a big index addition and some upbeat Wall Street research that suggests optimism for the shares.

SpaceX stock has been out for a month. But while backers of the company see big things ahead, it’s been quiet so far.

Friday marked the end of the fourth week of trading for SpaceX (SPCX), the Elon Musk-led rocket, connectivity and AI company. The shares, which today touched new intraday lows, finished the day down 4.5% at $145.30, below the $150 at which they opened trading a month ago; their IPO price was $135.

Why This Matters to Investors

It can be tempting to jump on high-profile IPOs, and investors who got into SpaceX on first-day prices did have opportunities to book a quick, profitable trade. Over time, though, the shares have retraced their steps.

July hasn’t been kind to SpaceX investors. The stock, which today booked its lowest-ever close, finished June just under $171, leaving them down 15% this month while the S&P 500 has managed a slight advance.

Two catalysts experts thought might help the shares reclaim some of the upward momentum they enjoyed post-IPO don’t seem to have delivered. Broadly bullish outlooks from Wall Street analysts —Visible Alpha’s average price target for the stock, above $293, suggests a near-doubling from current levels and a record high—arrived in bulk this week. And the shares were officially added to the Nasdaq 100 index, generally seen as bullish.

Neither development has, in the short term, moved the needle much. The stock has contended with a more challenging environment for risk assets, with tech stocks coming under pressure; some experts now say investors seem more cautious about their AI picks, even if they aren’t dropping the theme entirely. Uncertainty about the Fed’s path forward for interest rates may also be an overhang.

Meantime, investors have cooled on space stocks broadly, even as competitor Blue Origin has lately raised money at a big valuation. And Vanda Research data suggests that broad single-stock buying by retail investors, seen as a key constituency of SpaceX, has cooled this year.

Experts generally say it’s risky to trade stocks on IPO day, with companies’ shares often cooling even after hot starts. SpaceX has done just that, giving more patient investors an opportunity to reassess the shares.

This article has been updated to reflect the close of Friday’s trading.

Workers at a new home under construction in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, US, on Monday, June 29, 2026.
Credit: Zak Bennett / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takewways

• The 21st-Century Road To Housing Act is set to become law Saturday if President Donald Trump does not veto it.
• The bill includes multiple provisions aimed at making housing more affordable.
• Economists say the legislation could alleviate a long-standing housing shortage and improve affordability, though the benefits won’t be noticeable for many years.

A major housing affordability bill is set to become law Saturday without the signature of President Donald Trump.

Trump said Friday he would not sign the 21st-Century ROAD To Housing Act, a sprawling bipartisan package aimed at encouraging housing construction and reducing costs. However, the bill, which passed both chambers of Congress with overwhelming majorities, will become law after midnight Friday without the president’s signature, unless he vetoes it, due to a provision in the Constitution.

In a social media post, Trump said he was refusing to sign the bill to protest the legislature’s refusal to pass an unrelated measure that would require proof of citizenship to vote and ban mail-in voting.

The enactment of the housing act would be a victory for affordable housing advocates and real estate groups, who say it could push down housing costs over the long run. Housing costs have soared both for renters and homebuyers since the pandemic, contributing to cost-of-living challenges for many households.

What This Means For The Economy

The passage of the bill could help make homes more affordable, which economists see as a major weak point in the economy.

Trump was set to sign the bill last month but at the last minute, unexpectedly cancelled the planned ceremony, saying he would only do so if the voting bill passed.

According to the Constitution, a bill becomes law if passed by Congress and signed by the president. A bill also becomes law if Congress sends it to the president and he doesn’t sign or veto it within 10 days, excluding Sundays. That clock started ticking June 29, and will run out this weekend unless Trump changes his mind again.

The housing law targets what real estate groups and economists say is a long-standing housing shortage that has driven up prices in recent years.

Home prices rocketed up during the pandemic, when low mortgage rates collided with a wave of demand for living space to support the work-from-home lifestyle, sending prices skyward. Although price hikes have cooled recently, mortgage rates have risen again, making monthly payments on median-priced homes unaffordable on typical incomes, according to an analysis by Oxford Economics.

Since the Great Recession, homebuilders have built 4 million fewer homes than needed, forcing many young adults to live with their parents or roommates, according to an analysis by Realtor.com.

The ROAD to Housing Act includes multiple measures to alleviate that shortage. The bill cuts red tape for housing construction, including streamlining environmental reviews and eliminating some outdated regulations for manufactured homes. It also raises loan limits for federal housing loans and incentivizes state and local governments to change their zoning and land-use laws to permit more housing, among other things.

Housing groups said the law would likely take years to have a noticeable effect on the housing market, but that it was a step in the right direction.

“The impact of this legislation will take some time to sink in, but it will certainly come as programs are updated, red tape streamlined, and more homebuilding moves forward in earnest,” Brittany Webb, senior research director of the National Housing Conference, wrote in a commentary.

Researchers at Realtor.com said it would, eventually, help with the housing shortage they identified.

“It won’t immediately lower home prices or mortgage rates, so the main pain points for homebuyers and homeowners won’t see any relief,” Senior Economist Joel Berner wrote in a commentary. “Over time, though, especially as building is encouraged in the places that need it the most, the places where it’s currently hard to build due to regulatory burden, supply growth can close the housing shortage.”

This aerial photograph shows boats anchored off Oman’s northern Musandam Peninsula near the Strait of Hormuz on June 27, 2026.
Credit: AFP via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• An exchange of fire between the U.S. and Iran this week renewed risks the conflict could restrict oil supplies and push energy prices higher in the U.S.
• So far, the worst-case scenarios economists warned of at the outset of the war have not materialized.
• However, oil prices (and in turn inflation) could rise to damaging levels if the war heats up again, one analyst predicted.

A flare-up of fighting between the U.S. and Iran this week rekindled the risks the conflict poses to the U.S. economy.

Oil prices rose this week after the U.S. and Iran reportedly traded strikes. The uptick in prices was relatively subdued, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, trading at $76 a barrel Friday, up about $4 from before the fighting restarted.

However, the fresh wave of bombings underscored that the threat of economic damage from the conflict was not dispelled last month when the two sides signed a tentative peace deal.

So far, the U.S. economy has avoided the worst-case scenario forecasters feared at the outset of the conflict, in which oil could surge to more than $130 a barrel and plunge the U.S. economy into a recession. Higher fuel prices are a concern beyond the increased costs at the pump: many companies will pass on higher transportation or manufacturing costs to consumers across the economy.

It’s not guaranteed the U.S. will continue to avoid that scenario, economists said, especially if the fighting intensifies.

What This Means For The Economy

A resurgence of fighting in Iran could once more push up prices for oil and other supplies from the Middle East, increasing inflation and weighing on the U.S. economy.

“If the peace deal breaks, it won’t just raise oil prices; it would also increase pressure on AI supply chains in Asia, force central banks to be hawkish, tighten financial conditions, and could shift the outcome of the U.S. midterms,” wrote Ryan Sweet, chief global economist at Oxford Economics. “The cascade runs fast.”

The key economic issue in the conflict is control of the Strait of Hormuz. The crucial waterway between Iran and Oman is the shipping channel through which 20% of the world’s crude oil is normally dispatched to global markets. Iran’s closure of the strait to ship traffic bottled up oil supply and pushed up fuel prices in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Reopening the strait was a major condition in the peace deal President Donald Trump signed last month, and has been tested by the attacks on vessels this week. If the strait reopens and stays open, oil prices could fall to prewar levels of around $60 to $70 a barrel, Dan Alamariu, chief geopolitical strategist at Alpine Macroeconomics, wrote in a commentary.

Not so if the war heats up again, especially if global oil reserves begin to run dry, Alamariu wrote.

“Oil grinds toward $90 to $120 per barrel, and risks going higher still if reserves deplete quickly, or on higher escalation,” he wrote. “Inflation pressures would re-emerge globally.”

Alamariu said another cease-fire agreement is likely, since both sides have economic incentives to end the conflict, but that more flare-ups are also possible, and the uncertainty could persist even if another peace deal takes effect.

“Barring a clear Iranian defeat or U.S. capitulation, markets could view any new deal as more tenuous than the last, so the political risk premium may stay more elevated,” he wrote.

News of the day for July 10, 2026

Stocks gained yesterday as chip stocks rallied.
Credit: Spencer Platt / Getty Images

Stocks are pointing to a mixed open ahead of the week’s final session as investors await the U.S. trading debut of one of the world’s biggest memory chip makers; South Korea’s SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion in its offering, the largest-ever foreign stock listing on a U.S. exchange; Delta Air Lines reported strong earnings despite a massive fuel bill in the second quarter; shares of WD-40 are surging after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly results; and the European Commission has alleged that Meta made “addictive” products in Facebook and Instagram that may have harmed users. Here’s what you need to know today.

Stocks Mixed After Yesterday’s Rally

Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open for major indexes as the market caps off a volatile week of trading. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.1% in recent trading, as the Dow looks to extend its winning streak to five straight weeks, while futures tied to the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq were down 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively. The major indexes each gained yesterday, led by a chip stock rally. WTI crude oil futures were up 0.6% at $72.50 per barrel as investors monitor developments in the Middle East after fighting between the U.S. and Iran escalated this week. Gold futures were down 0.7% at $4,110 an ounce, while bitcoin traded at $64,400, recovering from a slump earlier this week that pulled the cryptocurrency as low as $61,000.

SK Hynix Prices Shares at $149 Ahead of Debut

SK Hynix announced early this morning that it priced the 177.9 million American depositary shares the company is selling in the U.S. at $149. That means the South Korean memory chip maker’s offering will raise about $26.5 billion, the biggest foreign debut ever in U.S. markets. The company said it expects the U.S.-listed shares to start trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market as soon as today on a limited basis, with regular way trading expected to kick off on Monday under the symbol “SKHY”. The debut will test American investors’ appetites for memory stocks, which have been one of the hottest segments of the AI trade in the last two years but has faced some volatility lately.

Delta Tops Estimates Despite Highest Fuel Expense Ever

Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat Wall Street estimates with its second-quarter earnings report as strong demand offset rising fuel costs. The company said this morning it earned an adjusted $1.56 per share on $19.76 billion in revenue, up 19% year-over-year. Delta CEO Ed Bastian said the company saw “the highest quarterly fuel expense in our history” as oil and jet fuel prices soared in the quarter owing to the Iran war. Delta’s third-quarter forecasts also topped estimates. Despite the strong results, Delta shares were down more than 1% ahead of the opening bell, after entering the day up nearly 30% since the start of the year. Delta was the first of the major U.S. airlines to report results.

WD-40 Stock Jumps on Strong Earnings, Outlook

Shares of WD-40 Company (WDFC) are rallying this morning after the company’s latest earnings topped estimates. The maker of its namesake cleaning and lubricating spray, along with several other cleaning and maintenance products, said after the bell yesterday that it earned an adjusted $2.33 per share on a nearly 25% jump in sales to $195.12 million in its fiscal third quarter. Those numbers handily topped the Visible Alpha consensus of $169.1 million in sales and $1.58 adjusted earnings per share. The company also lifted its full-year sales and profit forecasts. WD-40 shares were up 17% to $280 recently, trading at their highest level since late 2024.

EU Regulator Finds Meta Made ‘Addictive’ Products in Facebook, Instagram

Meta Platforms (META) could be looking at another fine from the European Union after an announcement today that the European Commission, the bloc’s enforcement arm, has determined in preliminarily findings that Meta broke Europe’s Digital Services Act. The regulator said Friday that Meta “did not adequately assess the risks” of making “addictive” products such as Facebook and Instagram. The Commission cited features such as an infinite scroll and highly personalized recommendations that “fuel the user’s urge to keep scrolling and shift the brain into ‘autopilot mode’, contributing to unhealthy habits and compulsive use.” Meta will now have the chance to respond to the finding, and after that the Commission will decide if its conclusion is confirmed and a fine could be levied. Meta shares were up 3% in premarket trading.