Investopedia Markets News (all except PF)

• Apple and Broadcom announced a new deal for the iPhone maker to buy at least $30 billion in chips over the next several years.
• The deal is part of Apple’s efforts to diversify its supply chain to make it more resistant to disruption and less reliant on international suppliers.
• Broadcom shares jumped following the news but remain down more than 20% from the all-time high set in early June.

Apple has a new chip deal that could help the tech giant be less reliant on international suppliers. That deal sent shares of chipmaking giant Broadcom sharply higher on Wednesday.

Apple (AAPL) said this morning that it has agreed to a new multi-year deal to buy at least $30 billion in chips from Broadcom (AVGO). The deal will see Broadcom update and expand its manufacturing facilities in Fort Collins, Colorado, with a $1.5 billion investment, which will result in the manufacturing of at least 15 billion chips.

Broadcom shares were up 5% in mid-afternoon trading, while Apple rose 1%.

The deal is the latest example of Apple working to diversify its supply chain to reduce its reliance on certain regions of the world such as Taiwan, where the risk of a military conflict with China could disrupt that supply chain.

Apple CEO Tim Cook, who is set to step down from the top job later this year, said the parts Broadcom makes at the Colorado facility, including parts that help connect Apple products to wireless-Fi networks, are “essential” to Apple’s products. Broadcom said in an SEC filing that the deal expands its Apple partnership through 2031, with an agreement to make custom chips for “multiple generations” of Apple products.

Apple said the deal is part of its American Manufacturing Program, which includes plans to spend hundreds of billions on growing U.S. manufacturing over the next several years. Both the Biden and Trump administrations have pushed to make the U.S. a more important and capable producer of semiconductors and other tech hardware that is currently in high demand.

Apple shares are up roughly 15% so far in 2026 and are currently trading near their all-time high. Broadcom shares have gained 13% this year, but have fallen about 20% from their record high in early June amid a volatile stretch of trading for chip stocks.

• Blue Origin is reportedly nearing the end of a fundraising round that values the rocket launch company and SpaceX competitor at $130 billion.
• SpaceX’s record-shattering IPO last month has caused investor interest in the space economy to boom, though space stocks have cooled off since SpaceX’s debut marked the end of a big pre-IPO run-up.

Big investors just put a pile of money into Jeff Bezos’ rocket company. Shouldn’t that be good for space stocks?

So far, it hasn’t been. Blue Origin, founded by the former Amazon chief, is raising money from outside investors for the first time at a $130 billion valuation, according to the New York Times. The funding round ranks Blue Origin among America’s most valuable private tech companies, behind only Anthropic, OpenAI, payments provider Stripe, and data analytics company Databricks, according to Pitchbook. In keeping with the recent trend of companies staying private for longer—and getting bigger as they do—the valuation exceeds those of public companies with household names including Starbucks (SBUX) and Lowe’s (LOW), both worth about $120 billion.

But Blue Origin’s big price tag didn’t do much to revive investor appetite for space-themed shares on Wednesday. The Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA) was down about 1.5% in recent trading. Shares of Rocket Lab (RKLB), one of the fund’s largest components, fell more than 2% after tumbling 10% yesterday. 

Rocket launch and satellite companies were thrust into the spotlight when SpaceX filed to go public earlier this year. Their stocks have been volatile in the months since, rising and falling with investor appetite to take the risk of investing in the nascent space economy.

Investor interest in space surged this year due in large part to SpaceX’s (SPCX) blockbuster June IPO. Elon Musk’s satellite and AI company raised more than $85 billion—nearly triple Saudi Aramco’s record-setting 2019 listing—when it began trading at a $1.75 trillion valuation in mid-June. Its market value passed $2 trillion and briefly exceeded Amazon’s (AMZN) when shares soared to a record high around $225 in the following days. 

Lesser-known space stocks got their own bump in the lead-up to the IPO. The Roundhill Space & Technology ETF (MARS) rose nearly 80% in the two months after SpaceX filed its IPO paperwork on April 1. Rocket Lab, a direct competitor of SpaceX and Blue Origin in launch business, more than doubled in value in that time. But stocks riding that wave of excitement tumbled on the big day, and it’s been tough going since. Tema’s ETF fell 24% between the IPO and Tuesday’s close. Roundhill’s and the VanEck Space ETF (WARP) are down 20% and 25%, respectively. 

A steady drumbeat of praise from Wall Street hasn’t prevented SpaceX from slumping, too. Shares declined 7% yesterday to close below $150—the price at which they began trading—for the first time despite a flood of overwhelmingly bullish analyst reports. Tuesday was also SpaceX’s first day in the Nasdaq 100, a milestone that should have given prices a boost as passive index funds bought up a chunk of the stock’s small float. Shares swung between gains and losses on Wednesday, and were recently down about 0.5%.

If the SpaceX listing hasn’t succeeded in buoying space stocks, it has at least pushed the nascent space industry into the spotlight and possibly set a blueprint for competitors to mimic. Rocket Lab in late June announced plans to acquire Iridium Communications (IRDM) in a deal valuing the satellite connectivity provider at $8 billion. According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the acquisition would expand Rocket Lab’s addressable market and give it a satellite services business adjacent to—though not directly competing with—Starlink, which generates the majority of SpaceX’s revenue and cash flows.

“SpaceX has demonstrated that the greatest value creation in the Space economy comes not from launch alone, but from owning differentiated Space-based infrastructure and monetizing recurring, high-margin services built on top of it,” the bank’s analysts wrote in a note on Wednesday. “Rocket Lab’s acquisition of Iridium represents a meaningful step along a similar path.”

• Restrictions on international students imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration are likely to deprive the U.S. economy of many of its best-educated workers, a new analysis found.
• The loss of highly educated science and technology workers could cause serious long-term damage to the economy if the decline persists, a hit the analysis compares to erasing the output of a midsize state.
• A decade out, annual U.S. GDP could be $240 billion to $481 billion lower than it otherwise would be if the decline holds, the researchers estimate.

When the White House restricted international students in 2025, it might as well have removed a state the size of Wisconsin from the U.S. economy.

That’s according to an analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE). It found that F-1 student visa issuance ran about a third below normal through September 2025, after a series of 2025 rule changes made it harder for foreigners to study at U.S. universities and stay to work after graduating.

Because 35% of doctoral-level STEM workers are foreign-born and U.S.-trained, the cutback could seriously weaken the high-skill workforce and slow economic growth for years. A decade from now, annual GDP could be $240 billion to $481 billion less than it otherwise would be, a loss the size of Wisconsin’s economy, PIIE researcher Michael A. Clemens wrote.

The PIIE analysis highlights the long-term consequences of cutting off multiple pathways that allow foreign students to train in high-tech fields at U.S. universities and work here after they graduate.

Clemens and his co-authors, Amy Nice of Cornell University and Jeremy Neufeld of the Institute for Progress, pulled together separate academic studies to gauge the cumulative effect of the administration’s crackdown on international students.

For example, last August, the administration moved to restrict student visas to a four-year maximum—too short for many graduate and doctoral tracks unless students win an extension.

The administration has also pressured Ivy League schools to limit foreign student enrollment, targeted visa programs that are common pathways for foreign-born workers to join the workforce, and detained international students for pro-Palestinian protests, causing students overseas to consider other countries for their education, among other actions.

Could U.S.-born workers offset the loss of the best-educated foreigners? Probably not, since international students are not currently “crowding out” opportunities for American-born STEM majors, according to studies cited by the PIIE researchers in the paper.

“In comparable past episodes, neither foreign-trained workers from abroad nor U.S.-born students stepped in to fill the gap,” Clemens wrote. “We see no reason this time will be different.”

• SpaceX-by-association plays, according to Wall Street analysts, include firms that own its shares or companies that might partner with—or even combine with—the company.
• Shares of three such companies—EchoStar, Charter, and Tesla—are down at least 10% year-to-date.

SpaceX (SPCX) has landed. The hunt for proxy stocks is still in play.

Wall Street’s generally warm reception for the company that makes rockets, provides satellite-based internet, and has an AI unit—the stock, while off post-IPO highs, remains above its IPO price, and Street analysts are broadly enthusiastic—has spilled over to companies that have some association with SpaceX.

Among them: EchoStar (ECHO), a global satellite and telecommunications company; Charter Communications (CHTR), an internet provider; and Elon Musk’s other public company, Tesla (TSLA). Shares of all three have declined at least 10% year-to-date. If their connections to SpaceX give them a lift, maybe they’ll call it the “SpaceX Effect.”

SpaceX is the shiny, new stock on the block. Some analysts are looking for some of that luster in associated—or potentially associated—companies.

EchoStar, previously an indirect play on SpaceX stock, is now a discounted indirect play on the company, according to Deutsche Bank. That has likely hurt the stock, which has dropped precipitously since mid-May in part because the SpaceX IPO meant investors could invest in Musk’s company directly, though it has seen its own struggles, including the June Chapter 11 bankruptcy of its DISH DBS subsidiary. Its chief, Hamid Akhavan, resigned this week, with cofounder and chair Charlie Ergen taking over his duties. EchoStar received $11 billion worth of SpaceX Class A shares, valued at $212 apiece, in a wireless spectrum licensing agreement struck last year; the former company did not respond to Investopedia’s request for comment in time for publication.

Deutsche Bank, however, started coverage of the stock on Tuesday amid a raft of freshly published SpaceX reports from Street analysts, calling EchoStar a discounted play on SpaceX. “Not only do investors get the rest of ECHO’s assets for free, but they’re also buying SPCX at a 20% discount,” Deutsche’s equity team said.

A potential partnership with SpaceX also stands to boost Charter’s profile. The companies are reportedly in discussions to create a mobile phone service in the U.S., according to Bloomberg. If such an agreement materializes, Charter would run some of SpaceX’s phone traffic through its infrastructure, and SpaceX would have a distribution partner to better compete with traditional wireless carriers.

“A more comprehensive mobile offering could strengthen Charter’s competitive positioning against fiber and fixed wireless providers, while reducing churn through bundling of internet and wireless services,” CIBC Capital Markets’ Stephanie Price wrote in a July 3 report. (Morgan Stanley analysts in a report Tuesday said the “perceived risk of Starlink Mobile disrupting the US Wireless industry is greater than the actual risk” in the next couple of years because of consumers’ “positive bias” toward the leading mobile carriers.)

Then there’s Tesla (TSLA), which has long been talked about as a potential SpaceX merger candidate. JPMorgan gave the idea some fresh air in a Monday note, saying the combination was “strategically coherent on paper,” which would allow Musk—who after the SpaceX IPO became the world’s first paper trillionaire—a way to “unify vision, mission and engineering leadership” across both companies. SpaceX’s market value was recently around $2 trillion, while Tesla’s was approaching $1.5 trillion.

Potential hurdles include regulatory scrutiny and Tesla’s business in China potentially drawing an antitrust or national security review, according to JPMorgan. If there were such a deal, JPMorgan’s Rajat Gupta says a SpaceX-led acquisition is “most likely” rather than a merger of equals. SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell in a CNBC interview last month said that such a combination “might make Elon’s life a little easier.”

• A court case from last year means millions of taxpayers who were assessed late fees during the pandemic could be owed refunds.
• The court ruled that the IRS violated a federal law that prohibited the agency from setting filing deadlines during the COVID-19 federal disaster declaration.
• However, the government has appealed the ruling.
• Despite the legal uncertainty, taxpayers should still file a claim by the July 10 deadline.

Tens of millions of Americans could qualify for a COVID-era tax refund, but they’ll need to claim it now.

If you paid a qualifying late fee or penalty to the Internal Revenue Service between January 2020 and May 2023, you have until July 10 to file a claim. But there is no guarantee refunds will be paid, as the legal dispute that prompted them remains ongoing.

According to the IRS’s Taxpayer Advocate, three categories of charges may be refundable or eligible for abatement: penalties for failing to file on time, pay on time, or make estimated tax payments; interest that began accruing earlier than it should have; and overpayment interest for the 2020–2023 disaster period.

President Donald Trump declared the pandemic a nationwide emergency effective Jan. 20, 2020, and former President Joe Biden ended it on May 11, 2023. The refunds result from a federal court case decided in November. The court ruled that federal law prohibited the IRS from setting filing deadlines, collecting interest, or assessing penalties during that three-and-a-half-year window.

However, the federal government appealed the decision, making it uncertain whether you will get the refund. Experts say you should still file for a refund if you qualify.

“While there is no guarantee that refunds or abatements will ultimately be granted, filing a timely protective claim may provide taxpayers with an opportunity to benefit from a favorable outcome,” wrote Travis Klein, director in the tax department of Baltimore-based accounting and consulting firm Ellin & Tucker.

Taxpayers seeking a refund for this period should check their tax records from those years—look for any late fees or penalties. You can get your transcripts online at IRS.gov or by calling the IRS at 800-829-1040.

Form 843 must be filed on paper—there’s no electronic option. The Taxpayer Advocate recommends sending claims by certified mail so you have proof of timely submission should the form get lost in transit.

• Delta Air Lines is set to release quarterly results Friday morning, and traders are expecting the stock to experience a sizable swing after the report.
• Analysts see Delta’s revenue continuing to grow, while profits likely took a hit from elevated fuel prices caused by the Iran war.

Delta Air Lines is scheduled to report earnings ahead of the opening bell Friday, and traders are anticipating a big move from the airline’s stock following the results.

Current options pricing indicates that Delta (DAL) shares are expected to swing as much as 6% by the end of the week. A move of that size from Delta’s Tuesday close of just below $89 could see shares rise to a new record closing high around $94, or fall as low as $83.

Delta’s results often serve as a preview for how the rest of the airline industry’s quarterly reports could look, and also provide insights into how executives see travel demand unfolding in the quarters to come.

Delta shares have gained nearly 30% since the start of the year. The stock, which closed out June at a record high above $93, rallied in recent months as concerns about high jet fuel prices that dominated last quarter’s airline earnings had largely eased. New strikes launched by the U.S. and Iran this week, however, have sent oil prices rising again.

UBS analysts recently wrote that they expect the reports and third-quarter forecasts from across the air travel industry to help boost stocks in the sector. The analysts said airlines are well-positioned as fuel costs fall while demand has remained strong even with elevated ticket prices, which could drive airlines’ profits and revenue per available seat mile, a key metric for the industry, higher in the third quarter.

Analysts are estimating that Delta will report $19.02 billion in revenue for the second quarter, up about 14% year-over-year, according to Visible Alpha. Adjusted earnings per share are seen declining to $1.51 from $2.10 a year ago, as fuel costs were elevated in the latest quarter.

Delta stock remains a favorite among analysts, with all nine tracked by Visible Alpha calling the airline a “buy.” Wall Street broadly expects Delta stock to surpass its recent highs, with an average price target of $102.

News of the day for July 8, 2026

Stock futures are sharply lower and oil prices are surging as investors react to the escalating tension between Iran and the U.S.; the two countries traded strikes overnight and President Trump said the ceasefire could be over; chip stocks are poised to extend their losses into a second session; Apple reached a deal to buy at least $30 billion worth of chips from Broadcom; and the minutes from last month’s Fed meeting on interest rates are scheduled to be released this afternoon. Here’s what you need to know today.

Stock futures are sinking this morning as markets react to the escalating tension between the U.S. and Iran. (more on that below) S&P 500 futures were down 0.7% recently, while futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1% and 1.1%, respectively. The major indexes fell yesterday as the Dow pulled back from a record high and chip stocks tumbled. WTI crude oil futures were up 5% at $74 per barrel, trading at a two-week high as investors monitored developments in the Middle East. Gold futures were down 2% at $4,075 an ounce, while bitcoin traded at $62,200, down from yesterday’s high of $64,600. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which affects interest rates on all sorts of loans, rose to 4.57%, its highest level in more than a month.

The U.S. and Iran are again trading strikes after multiple ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz early yesterday. The U.S. responded by launching new strikes in Iran, and Iranian forces are retaliating by attacking other countries, including Bahrain, that host U.S. military bases. President Trump was asked about the status of the ceasefire that has kept attacks to a minimum for the last few months, and he said he thinks the agreement could be “over.” Trump said U.S. officials will be allowed to continue negotiating with Iran, but said “I think they’re wasting their time,” per The Associated Press.

Chip stocks are poised to extend yesterday’s losses into a second straight session. Several major hardware makers are down premarket, including Nvidia (NVDA), Intel (INTC), Marvell (MRVL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Micron (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK). The AI trade stumbled yesterday after preliminary second-quarter results from South Korean tech giant Samsung beat estimates, but not by enough to wow investors, dragging the U.S. tech sector lower. Samsung shares fell by more than 6% for a second straight day in Korean Stock Exchange trading on Wednesday. Worries about an AI bubble have also been reignited for some investors recently after last month’s rally that sent many AI stocks to new record highs. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) was down 2% in recent premarket trading, while the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) dropped more than 5%.

Apple (AAPL) has a new chip deal that could help the tech giant be less reliant on international suppliers. The iPhone maker said this morning that it reached multi-year agreement with Broadcom (AVGO) to buy at least $30 billion in chips. The deal will see Broadcom update and expand its manufacturing footprint in Fort Collins, Colorado. Apple has looked to diversify its suppliers in recent years to reduce its reliance on certain regions of the world such as Taiwan, where the risk of a military conflict with China could disrupt the supply chain used to make Apple’s products. Shares of Apple and Broadcom were each down less than 1% ahead of the opening bell amid the broader tech sell-off.

Investors are set to get insights into the thought process of the Federal Reserve’s policy committee with minutes from last month’s meeting on interest rates slated to be released this afternoon. The minutes come as inflation has surged in recent months, with oil and fuel prices driven higher by the Iran war causing price increases across the economy. Projections from committee members, released after last month’s meeting, indicated that several Fed officials believe interest rates will need to be raised this year to contain inflation. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is undertaking a broad review of how the central bank makes policy decisions, has made clear that the Fed is squarely focused on bringing inflation down.

Episode 302 of the Investopedia Express Podcast with Caleb Silver (July 6, 2026)

The Motley Fool has educated and helped enrich millions of individual investors since it was founded 33 years ago, and it continues to break rules today. Co-founder and Chief Rule Breaker, David Gardner, joins the show with some of his favorite investing lessons and why he thinks we are still in the golden age of investing.

Plus, SpaceX jumps the line and joins the Nasdaq 100 and several other indexes less than one month from its IPO. Like it or not, your portfolio just went galactic. 

Subscribe Now: Apple Podcasts / Spotify / PlayerFM

• Wall Street analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on SpaceX shares, with their average price target implying 85% upside in the stock from recent levels.
• Shares of the rocket company closed Tuesday just below its debut opening price of $150 for the first time.

Cue the confetti: Wall Street is throwing SpaceX a parade.

A wave of banks, from Bank of America to William Blair, started coverage on the rocket, AI and connectivity company on Tuesday, and their collective bullishness implies the stock is set for big gains. Raymond James set the Street-high price target of $800; the collective average price target of $276, per Investopedia’s calculations, implies about 85% upside from Tuesday’s close, though that is in part a function of the stock’s post-IPO return to Earth, with the shares just under the $150 at which they started trading in mid-June.

SpaceX is trading just above its debut opening price, though it has had just about everything—retail investor enthusiasm, index inclusions and associated fund buying, and a wave of positive analyst reports—going for it. Its next series of catalysts could be lock-up expirations, when insiders and early investors will be free to trade their shares.

At least 13 analysts now cover the company, and only one of them—Susquehanna International Group—has a neutral stance. SpaceX is the “apex of civilizational ambition,” Deutsche Bank wrote; “King of the Cosmos,” according to BofA Global Research; a company with “supernormal growth rates,” per Citi; and sporting “multiple trillion dollar market opportunities,” Goldman Sachs said. Virtually all give the company credit for owning and controlling its supply chain, and nod to its enormous potential given the space and AI theme, but some are much more bullish than others.

Here are summaries of some of the latest research:

• BofA rates it a “Buy,” with a price target of $235. The equity team said SpaceX is “paving the superhighway to the stars” and “laying the foundation for Starship and future applications to drive another paradigm shift in capabilities.”
• Citi has a “Buy” rating and a $200 price target, which it thinks is but a “milestone along the path to $900.” The bank wrote that its bullishness is, in part, based on the company’s “unrivaled” launch capabilities and its potential to unlock “trillion dollar market opportunities.”
• Deutsche Bank rates SpaceX a “Buy” and has a price target of $255. Its analysts said that the company has “accomplished what governments have struggled to do for decades,” building large reusable rockets that are increasingly affordable. Like Tesla, the absence of a comparable peer to SpaceX warrants a “unique valuation framework,” according to the bank—meaning, in short, it deserves to trade at a premium price.
• Goldman Sachs has a “Buy” rating and a price target of $205. Its equity analysts said each of the company’s three businesses—space, broadband, and AI—could become trillion-dollar businesses over a time horizon of five years or more. The firm thinks SpaceX can execute, but also said there’s volatility risk around index inclusions, lock-up expirations, and other news about the company.
• JPMorgan started coverage with an “Overweight” rating, effectively a bullish stance, and a price target of $225. The firm’s analysts said the company’s launch leadership is both the key to enabling its business and having it stand out among others. It thinks Starlink could take broadband market share, but views mobile connectivity as “less likely.” (Some analysts and others have lately speculated that the company could seek to get into the mobile-service business through acquisition or partnership.)
• Morgan Stanley has an “Overweight” rating and a $300 price target. The firm’s equity analyst team said SpaceX can “convert energy into intelligence at scale.” The company’s AI business, post-Cursor acquisition, and its Earth-based AI infrastructure are “underappreciated” by the market, they said. Their “intentionally wide” range of expectations has the stock going to $75 in their bear case and $600 in the bull case.
• William Blair rates it an “Outperform.” SpaceX was initially considered the “underdog” against the established U.S. industrials cohort across space and satellite but was “able to turn the tables in a major way,” according to its team. The same goes for building out data centers, showing that it can build “significantly faster than industry peers” even as a newcomer, they wrote.

Shares of SpaceX fell Tuesday, sliding on their first day as components of the Nasdaq 100 index.

This article has been updated since it was first published to reflect the close of Tuesday’s trading.

• Analysts at Wells Fargo and Bank of America issued bullish predictions for bank stocks and earnings, which will kick off second-quarter earnings season next week.
• Strong AI-driven capital markets activity and accelerating commercial loan growth are expected to lift bank earnings above consensus estimates.

Financial sector stocks are ripping into their second quarter earnings reports. Wall Street analysts think the strength is justified.

The S&P 500 Financials Sector is up more than 8% in the past month, neck-and-neck with healthcare as the best-performing sector during the period. Over the past three months, the sector’s 13% return puts it behind only the tech sector, up 23% due to April and May’s blistering chip stock rally. 

“I am bullish on banks,” Mark Mayo, bank analyst at Wells Fargo, told CNBC on Tuesday. “I think this will be the third year in a row that bank stocks outperform the market.” Mayo and other Wall Street analysts argue strong capital markets activity and a resilient economy boosting commercial loan growth are likely to drive earnings beats for the U.S. banks that kick off second-quarter earnings season next week.

Big Banks will get the second round of 2026 earnings reports started when they post results next week. Wall Street expects broadening benefits of the AI data center buildout to fuel another strong quarter for corporate America.

Big banks are in the midst of a “multi-year [earnings per share] inflection,” wrote Mayo in a note on Monday. He argues large lenders are less than halfway through a four-year growth cycle, and expects the group to report earnings increased nearly 20% last quarter. Revenue is expected to grow more than 10%, driven by higher net interest income (NII) and “strong capital markets as mega-banks benefit[ted] from mega-IPOs, mega-mergers, and mega-financings.”

Bank of America analysts on Tuesday cited surprisingly strong capital markets activity for their decision to raise their price targets and earnings estimates for several large banks, including JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS). They see potential for those banks plus 5 others in their coverage—Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (GS), BNY Mellon (BNY), State Street (STT) and Northern Trust (NTRS)—to beat estimates and potentially raise their guidance for the rest of the year. 

Capital markets activity was strong last quarter due in large part to artificial intelligence. Volatility from the Iran War and the AI chip stock rally boosted trading activity. AI drove a pick-up in merger and IPO activity, with firms making strategic acquisitions and some, including SpaceX (SPCX) and Cerebras (CBRS), capitalizing on AI enthusiasm with blockbuster debuts. The AI data center buildout’s hefty price tag has encouraged tech giants to increase their debt issuance.

To be sure, Mayo sees risks that capital market tailwinds are abating. OpenAI may delay its IPO to next year. Lots of tech’s debt funding has been completed, and investors remain uncertain about the sustainability of spending. Markets should be calmer as Middle East peace talks progress. And Mayo argues capital markets pure plays like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley—whose stocks had gained a respective 20% and 25% this year through Monday’s close—have a lot of positives baked into their share prices. 

But capital markets are just one of the tailwinds Mayo sees fueling banks’ growth in the coming years. “I think the evolving story is the accelerating middle America loan growth, capital expenditures picking up,” Mayo told CNBC. “I’m not talking about the hyperscalers. I’m talking about your plain old bread and butter commercial borrowing.”

After nearly half a century of slow growth, commercial and industrial (C&I) loans are accelerating due to the investment incentives written into last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill, tariff refunds, the knock-on effects of AI investments, and clients’ acceptance that uncertainty is the new norm, according to Mayo. According to Federal Reserve data, banks have added $212 billion of commercial loans to their balance sheets in the past year, lifting the value of all C&I loans by 8% to $2.89 trillion.

The interest rate outlook is also expected to be positive for banks’ net interest income and their stocks, according to Bank of America. The bank’s analysts, who previously forecast a resilient labor market and reaccelerating inflation would force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice this year, now expect no change in rates through December. That call puts in them in the minority. Though oil prices fell to their pre-war levels in recent months, taking some pressure off inflation, the majority of investors still expect at least one rate hike this year.

“We believe the outlook for rates to remain stable/higher is supportive of NII (ex. markets) across our coverage,” BofA analysts wrote on Tuesday. The stocks of lenders that top NII estimates and raise their guidance—as they expect to see from JPMorgan, Citigroup, and trust banks such as State Street—“likely get rewarded despite a high bar.”