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• Target's stock plunged in early trading Wednesday, despite quarterly results that came in ahead of Wall Street estimates.
• New CEO Michael Fiddelke said Target's "strategy is resonating" with customers after laying out his turnaround plan in February.
• Some analysts pointed to elevated investor expectations heading into the results.

Target's new CEO says the retailer's turnaround efforts are starting to pay off after a stronger-than-expected earnings report, though investors aren't cheering the results.

Shares of Target shares were down 6% in recent trading, despite quarterly earnings and an outlook that topped Wall Street analysts' projections. Target (TGT) posted earnings per share of $1.71 in the first quarter on a 7% year-over-year jump in sales to $25.44 billion. Comparable store sales grew 4.4%, in the metric's first increase since the fourth quarter of 2024. All three figures came in ahead of analysts' estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

CEO Michael Fiddelke said in a press release that the results showed Target's strategy is "resonating" with shoppers. Target also lifted its outlook, forecasting 4% sales growth for the full year, double its previous 2% forecast.

Target first-quarter performance could be taken as an early indication that the retailer's turnaround effort is making progress, despite a number of challenges.

CFO Jim Lee said in the company's earnings call that the forecast includes some "moderation" from its first-quarter growth rate, as consumer sentiment worsens and the tailwind of tax refunds boosting consumer spending fades after the first quarter. Fiddelke said in Target's earnings call that while the company's first-quarter performance was encouraging, Target is "being cautious about the near-term operating environment," per an AlphaSense transcript.

JPMorgan analysts said the results were "very strong but not unexpected," with Target and other companies facing elevated expectations heading into the report, and suggested investors will likely be focused on how durable Target's progress is. Oppenheimer analysts said they "look very favorably" on the results and called them a "clear step in the right direction."

The quarter was Target's first since Fiddelke took over in February and laid out his plans to turn around Target's slumping sales during its fourth-quarter earnings call, which include investing in new technology, employee training efforts, and revamping stores.

Even with Wednesday's slump, Target shares are still up more than 20% since the start of the year.

News of the day for May 20, 2026

Stock futures are higher after three straight days of losses for major indexes, as investors prepare for the highly anticipated earnings report from AI chipmaker Nvidia; the company at the heart of the AI boom is due to release its quarterly results after the closing bell in what is likely to set the tone for the broader market in the coming days; Lowe's, Target and TJX each released their results this morning as a busy week of retail earnings continues; details on SpaceX's financial situation could be made public this afternoon, ahead of an expected IPO; and minutes from the Federal Reserve's April policy meeting are due out this afternoon. Here's what you need to know today.

Futures are pointing to a higher open as chip stocks rebound from their recent pullback ahead of Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings release later today. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were recently up 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, while futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.6%. The major indexes fell Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting losses for the third straight session, amid a pullback in big tech stocks.

WTI futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, were down 2% this morning at around $102 per barrel as investors kept tabs on developments in the Iran war. The Senate last night passed a resolution looking to push President Trump to end the Iran war, though it remains unclear if he would follow such a bill if it was also passed by the House, per The Associated Press.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which hit its highest level in over a year yesterday amid mounting concerns about inflation, was at 4.64%, down from yesterday's close of 4.67%. Gold futures were down slightly at $4,500 an ounce, while bitcoin ticked higher to $77,400 after five straight days of declines.

One of the biggest events of the financial calendar is on deck for this afternoon: Nvidia's latest quarterly earnings. The AI chipmaking giant, and world's most valuable company by market capitalization at $5.3 trillion, is schedued to report another quarter of soaring sales and profits as tech companies continue to spend hundreds of billions on the hardware needed for AI data centers. Analysts have said they will be on the lookout for updates on stock buybacks, custom chips, developments in demand for Nvidia's latest products, the potential impacts of rising memory prices and news on chip sales to China following CEO Jensen Huang's recent trip with the Trump administration to Beijing. Nvidia shares were up more than 1% ahead of the opening bell.

Investors are getting a full slate of updates on the retail sector this week. Lowe's (LOW), Target (TGT) and TJX Companies (TJX) all released results this morning, adding to yesterday's report from Home Depot (HD). Lowe's, similar to its home improvement rival, topped revenue and profit estimates while its comparable store sales growth came in just shy of Wall Street expectations. Target beat on the top and bottom lines, and doubled its full-year sales growth forecast to about 4%, as the retailer's turnaround efforts under new CEO Michael Fiddelke look to be taking shape. TJX, parent of TJ Maxx and Marshalls, also beat analysts' estimates for revenue and profit, and lifted its guidance. Lowe's stock was down 2% in recent premarket trading, while shares of Target and TJX gained ground.

As the date of SpaceX's planned initial public offering draws closer, investors could get their first detailed look at the company's financial situation. The Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX's prospectus could be made public as early as this afternoon. The regulatory filing will provide insights into the finances of the company led by Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk, as well as its plans for growth as a public company and how it will use its likely record-setting proceeds from the IPO.

The minutes from the April policy meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee are due out at 2 p.m. ET today, and will likely be closely watched by investors who are looking for clues about how the central bank sees its job of tempering rising inflation while also boosting the job market. The minutes could shed light on why last month's decision to hold rates steady came with the most dissenting votes in over 30 years. Market participants have become increasingly convinced that the Fed could end up raising rates under new chair Kevin Warsh to combat the inflation sparked by the Iran war. Warsh was nominated to the position by President Trump, who repeatedly criticized former Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not aggressively cutting interest rates.

• Deere's next earnings report is due Thursday morning, with the farming and construction equipment maker's stock seen making a sizable move following the results.
• Demand for construction equipment to support big tech's data center buildout has boosted Deere's sales in recent quarters.

Deere & Co. is slated to report earnings ahead of the opening bell Thursday, with traders anticipating a big move in the farming and construction equipment maker's stock after the results.

Based on current options pricing, traders are anticipating Deere (DE) shares could swing up to 5% in either direction by the end of the week. A move of that size from Tuesday's close could see shares climb as high as $585, recovering some of their recent losses, or slip as low as $531.

Shares of Deere are about 17% off a record high set after it reported solid results back in February, but are still up nearly 20% since the start of the year as strong demand for Deere's construction equipment to help build big tech's data centers has offset weakness in the agriculture sector and pressure on its margins from tariffs.

Deere's report on Thursday could give investors more insights into the state of demand for construction equipment, as well as how the company sees the Trump administration's tariffs impacting its business this year.

Oppenheimer analysts recently wrote that they see Deere with the "most favorable" setup among agriculture equipment makers this earnings season, and reiterated an "outperform" rating and $715 price target. The analysts said growing machinery demand in North America should offset weakness in South America, and suggested Deere's could raise its forecast for construction sales.

The maker of John Deere tractors and construction equipment is expected to report $13.05 billion in revenue for the second quarter, up about 2% year-over-year. Earnings per share are seen slipping to $5.61 from $6.64 the same time last year, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

Analysts are largely bullish on Deere stock, with the nine analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha divided between seven "buy" and two neutral ratings. Their average price target of $723 would suggest nearly 30% upside from Tuesday's close.

• Financial markets are now pricing in a greater than 50% chance of a rate hike this year.
• The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up fuel prices, stoking inflation and raising concerns among Fed officials that price increases are accelerating too quickly.
• More Fed officials have shown an inclination to pump the brakes on the economy by raising its key interest rate, which pushes up borrowing costs across all kinds of loans.

It’s looking more and more likely the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates to deal with rising inflation, according to investors.

Last week, financial markets were pricing in about a 60% chance that the Federal Reserve would keep its key interest rate unchanged through its December meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds trading data.

On Tuesday, those odds changed as intensifying concerns about inflation pushed up yields on Treasury bonds. Traders are now pricing in a 58% chance of a rate hike in December and a 40% chance the central bank will not change its influential interest rate.

Should the Fed’s policy committee decide to raise the fed funds rate from its current level of 3.5% to 3.75%, it would be the first hike since 2023, when the Fed completed its campaign of rate hikes to deal with the post-pandemic surge of inflation.

Higher interest rates could help push down inflation, but might damage a job market already plagued by low hiring rates.

That would also be a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, when the Fed was moving in the opposite direction. The central bank's policy committee cut its rate by a quarter-point at each of the last three meetings last year to boost the ailing job market.

The Iran war has shaken up the economic outlook by driving prices for crude oil, gasoline, and other commodities. Fed officials have become increasingly worried that the spike in gas prices could fuel more persistent inflation, especially if the crucial Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon. In recent speeches, more Fed officials have raised the possibility of rate hikes.

"I'm more concerned about the inflation side," Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said in an interview last week. "If it starts going off the rails, then I think the Fed has got to consider options like even higher rates to try to stop the inflation."

The fed funds rate is the Fed’s main monetary policy tool for fulfilling its dual mandate to keep inflation low and employment high. The central bank typically raises rates, which pushes up borrowing costs on all kinds of loans, when it wants to discourage spending and stifle inflation. It does the opposite when the job market is the main concern, and pushes down borrowing costs to encourage spending and hiring.

And while the Fed does face pressures on both sides of that mandate, inflation has taken a sharper turn in the wrong direction. Higher gas prices helped push the Consumer Price Index to a three-year high annual increase in April, and inflation measures haven’t touched the Fed’s goal of a 2% annual rate since 2021.

Susan Collins, president of the Boston Fed, also brought up the possibility of a rate hike last week in a speech to the Boston Economic Club.

"While I hope policy normalization can resume late this year, I can also envision a scenario that requires some policy tightening to ensure that inflation returns durably to 2%," she said, according to prepared remarks.

Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Kansas City Fed, called inflation "the most pressing risk to the economy," when speaking at a conference in Missouri last week.

Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, also raised similar concerns at a Q&A in St. Paul, Minnesota, last week.

"Now there's just a huge question mark of how long the Strait of Hormuz is going to be closed, because that is going to have a big effect on what is the path forward for inflation," he said. "We just don't know right now."

Not every Fed official has sounded so inclined towards rate hikes. Earlier in the month, John C. Williams, president of the New York Fed, stressed a balanced approach in a speech at a symposium in New York. However, that speech was delivered before the April CPI report was published, which raised red flags about consumer prices.

A major open question for the Fed’s policy is how incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will react to those pressures.

President Donald Trump has said he expects Warsh to cut rates, but it’s unclear whether Warsh agrees or whether he would be able to convince a majority of the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee to go along with cuts.

• The White House estimated the average tax refund would grow by about $1,000 during the 2026 tax filing season.
• Preliminary reports from the IRS show the average tax refund was $3,276, 11.5% higher than the previous year.
• More tax changes from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act take effect for the 2027 filing season.

At the beginning of the 2026 tax filing season, the White House estimated that the average refund would grow by $1,000. Refunds grew, but not as much as the Trump administration promised.

The "One Big, Beautiful Bill" introduced several new tax breaks this year and expanded previous ones. These tax credits and deductions would result in the "biggest tax refund season ever," the White House said in January.

According to figures released this week, the average refund was $3,276 during the 2026 tax filing season. That is $337, or 11.5% higher than the previous filing season.

The story for taxpayers isn't just the size of this year's refunds. Expanded credits, a larger charitable deduction, and new caps on gambling losses and itemized deductions will all affect returns filed in 2027, meaning planning for next year's taxes should start soon.

Taxpayers in the most recent filing season have, on average, received the largest refund since the IRS began publishing data in 2009. However, it was not the largest year-over-year increase in the average refund. That occurred during the 2022 tax season, when average tax refunds increased by 15.5% to $3,252, largely due to the temporarily expanded Child Tax Credit during the pandemic.

The figures released this week are preliminary figures. The IRS will release updated numbers after taxpayers who requested an extension file later this year, which may shift the average refund.

New tax breaks from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, including no tax on tips, overtime, and car loan interest, plus an expanded senior deduction, first applied to 2025 taxes, filed this spring.

More changes from the law take effect for the 2027 filing season:

• Child and Dependent Care Credit: Parents and caregivers could previously claim only 35% of their child- and dependent-care expenses. In 2026, taxpayers can claim 50% of their expenses. The changes also increase the income level eligible for this credit.
• Student loan debt cancellation: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act made permanent a tax break that excludes student loan discharges granted because of a borrower's death or total and permanent disability. That tax break was scheduled to expire at the end of 2025.
• Educator Expenses Deduction: Teachers can deduct part of their classroom or student-related purchases. In 2026, coaches can use the deduction.
• Expanded Charitable Deduction: In 2026, non-itemizers can deduct up to $1,000 in charitable contributions ($2,000 for joint filers).

However, some new tax laws will reduce tax savings, such as limiting deductions for gambling losses. The federal tax credit for installing an EV charger at home also expires June 30, 2026, and federal student debt forgiven through income-driven repayment plans is federally taxable again in 2026, after a broader pandemic-era exclusion lapsed at the end of 2025.

• Prediction markets are starting to tap into private markets, potentially creating a new signal around businesses' economic value.
• Data from Nasdaq Private Market, an investment platform for private company shares, will determine how the bets are resolved.

There's a new way to trade buzzy IPO hopefuls before they go public.

Prediction markets operator Polymarket debuted a smattering of event contracts that let traders speculate on the valuations of popular private companies including Anthropic, Neuralink, OpenAI and SpaceX, whether they go public or not. That means bettors can put money on whether an AI company will be worth $3 trillion by the end of the year, or a fraction of that—potentially creating new signals investors can use to determine which direction a company's valuation is going.

Prediction markets are taking their approach to elections and sports games and applying them to private company valuations.

For example, Anthropic reportedly agreed to a $30 billion fundraising round to close as soon as this month that will value the company at $900 billion. A recent check shows that Polymarket traders are betting that that figure will balloon to $1 trillion by December 31.

Meanwhile, bettors are pricing in roughly 90% odds that SpaceX by June 30 will be worth somewhere between $1.5 trillion and $1.75 trillion, which would be in line with the the reported $1.75 trillion valuation it is said to be seeking in an IPO coming soon.

The tricky part is settling a bet on a private company valuation, without relying on its most recent fundraising valuation or waiting for it to go public and start trading. That's where Nasdaq Private Market, an investment platform for private company shares and a Polymarket partner, comes in.

The firm, which keeps track of private companies' funding rounds, secondary trading in them, as well as other market factors, will be the final arbiter of those event contracts if the company in question remains private by the end of the bets' specified terms. It publishes an estimate of private company valuations at 1 p.m. ET daily—last putting Anthropic's valuation at $923 billion, and SpaceX's at $1.4 trillion.

• Home Depot executives said Tuesday that inflation is leading consumers to continue delaying some larger home improvement projects.
• The retailer beat sales and profit estimates, but its comparable store sales growth was lower than expected in the first quarter.

Many Americans are holding back on pricey home improvement projects as the Iran war drives up inflation and squeezes budgets, according to executives at Home Depot.

Home Depot (HD) CFO Richard McPhail told CNBC in a televised interview Tuesday that Home Depot's customers "continue to tell us that they are going to defer their spend on larger projects," in the face of rising prices, echoing earlier comments.

Persistent inflation and a stagnant housing market have weighed on consumers' spending on home improvement projects and "big ticket" items in recent quarters. “The main thing is just this uncertainty that’s holding them back for taking on large projects,” CEO Ted Decker said during the company’s earning call, according to a transcript provided by AlphaSense.

The comments from Home Depot executives could be taken as a concerning signal of uncertainty and worries about rising costs among consumers, though the retailer's sales and profits topped Wall Street analysts' estimates.

Home Depot on Tuesday posted first-quarter adjusted earnings of $3.43 per share on a 4.8% year-over-year rise in revenue to $41.77 billion, better than the adjusted EPS of $3.40 on revenue of $41.63 billion analysts had called for. Home Depot's comparable store sales growth of 0.6% was just below the 0.8% mark analysts were expecting.

JPMorgan analysts noted that sales for Home Depot's Pro segment were positive in the quarter while DIY sales were negative. Both Home Depot and rival Lowe's (LOW) have worked to increase their sales to professional contractors to offset a sluggish home improvement market.

Home Depot shares were up less than 1% in recent trading. They've lost close to 13% since the start of the year.

• Nvidia is due to release its quarterly results after Wednesday's closing bell, and the chipmaker at the heart of the AI boom is expected to report strong sales and profit growth.
• Analysts said they'll be watching for updates on stock buybacks, custom chips, developments in demand for Nvidia's latest products, and the potential impacts of rising memory prices.

Investors have a lot to focus on when the world's most valuable company reports earnings Wednesday.

Results from Nvidia (NVDA), the chipmaker at the heart of the AI boom, could be a test of the recent tech-fueled stock market rally. Several analysts say they expect the company to report results that top Wall Street estimates and to raise its outlook on booming demand for AI hardware.

As the world's leading AI chip designer, the particulars of Nvidia's results could have big implications for the broader AI industry and influence a wide range of stocks.

There are a number of other things that could sway investors' enthusiasm for the stock, the chip sector and the AI trade more broadly. Here are some of the things analysts said they'll be on the lookout for.

Several analysts said they'll be watching closely to see what executives have to say about how the company is dealing with rising prices for memory components amid a global shortage that could squeeze Nvidia's margins or force the chipmaker to raise its own prices. "The most significant supply chain risk in our view is not component availability, but rather how NVDA’s memory supply might be repriced into 2027 and in turn the mechanism NVDA chooses to pass on what will very likely be increased component costs to its customers," Wedbush analysts wrote in a note to clients Monday.

Investors will also be looking for updates on Nvidia's efforts to sell more of its AI chips to China after CEO Jensen Huang joined President Donald Trump on his recent trip to China. "We have been consistently hesitant to underwrite any meaningful revenue contribution from China but the setup here is notable," analysts at Jefferies wrote late last week, and suggested the scale of Nvidia's opportunity in China could be larger than previously anticipated.

Goldman Sachs analysts said they’ll be watching closely what executives have to say about the chipmaker’s strategy around growing competition in the market for custom AI chips. Many investors will be eager for signals on how Nvidia, which has dominated the market for general-purpose AI chips, intends to defend its leadership. Morgan Stanley analysts said they believe Nvidia's market share and outlook for custom processors as well as datacenter chips broadly could become "perhaps the most important debate for the stock," and that they're "optimistic" about Nvidia's positioning in the space.

Updates on Nvidia's trajectory to reaching $1 trillion in combined revenue from its Blackwell chips and next-generation Rubin lineup between 2025 and 2027 could also come Wednesday, Morgan Stanley said. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said they see Nvidia potentially raising that forecast from the company's GTC event March, as well as incremental upside from other offerings not included in the guidance.

Jefferies analysts said they'll be watching for updates on Nvidia's buyback program as well, which they said "remains a live investor debate." The analysts said they expect Nvidia executives to "offer further clarity on the framework, timing, and how the strategic investment envelope reconciles with the buyback/dividend commitment."

Through Monday's close, Nvidia shares had gained 19% since the start of the year, outpacing the S&P 500's 8% rise in 2026. The stock most recently hit an all-time last Thursday.

Episode 295 of the Investopedia Express podcast with Caleb Silver (May 18, 2026)

Subscribe Now: Apple Podcasts / Spotify / PlayerFM

The rules of getting rich and staying rich keep changing, but Haley Sacks, aka “Mrs. Dow Jones," created her own rules and shares them in her new book, “Future Rich Person." Plus, the surging stock market finally hit a wall after weeks of tech-inspired gains as Treasury yields are springing higher. Are higher-for-longer inflation and interest rates real threats to this aging bull market? Or will Nvidia's earnings report this week spur a pre-summer rally?

News of the day for May 19, 2026

Futures are pointing to a lower open for major indexes Tuesday as tech stocks remain under pressure; the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest point in over a year; Home Depot reported better-than-expected revenue and profit, but its comparable store sales figure came in below Wall Street estimates; Alphabet is set to kick off its Google I/O event, with new AI features expected to be unveiled; and a data center joint venture between Google and Blackstone is pressuring cloud computing stocks this morning. Here's what you need to know today.

Stock futures are pulling back this morning after the market got off to a sluggish start to the week. Futures tied to the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq were recently down 0.4% and 0.8%, respectively, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 0.3%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed lower on Monday as tech stocks slumped, while the Dow ended the day slightly higher. West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, were down slightly at around $108 per barrel after President Trump said last night that other countries in the Middle East have asked the U.S. to hold off on renewed attacks on Iran that he has threatened. Gold futures also ticked lower, trading at roughtly $4,545 an ounce, while bitcoin was holding steady at $76,700 this morning.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which affects interest rates on mortgages and all sorts of other consumer loans, hit its highest level since February 2025 this morning. The yield was recently at 4.62%, up from 4.59% at yesterday's close and well above the 3.95% level registered just before the start of the Iran war. The 10-year yield has soared amid fears of inflation remaining elevated for longer, as several central banks from around the world have slashed their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, according to CNBC. (Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so when bond selling accelerates, yields rise). A Bank of America survey released Monday found that more than 60% of fund managers from the U.S. and abroad see the 30-year Treasury yield likely hitting 6%, its highest level since 1999, and well above its current level around 5.15%, according to CNBC.

Home Depot (HD) largely beat estimates in its latest quarterly results released this morning, kicking off a busy week for earnings from major retailers. Home Depot reported adjusted earnings of $3.43 per share on $41.77 billion in revenue in the first quarter, each above the analyst consensus compiled by Visible Alpha. The key retail metric of comparable store sales, however, came in at 0.6% growth, narrowly missing estimates. Some analysts have raised concerns that home improvement spending could be pressured by fuel prices driving up inflation. Home Depot shares, which through Monday's close had lost 13% of their value since the start of the year, were down 1% in recent premarket trading.

Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) will kick off its annual Google I/O event today, with a number of new AI features expected to be unveiled in presentations scheduled through Wednesday. Some big-name investors have made differing moves on the stock lately, with Bill Ackman's Pershing Square (PS) cutting its stake in the first quarter, while Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) bought up more Alphabet shares in its first quarter without Warren Buffett as CEO. Alphabet shares, which closed at a record high of $402.62 last Wednesday, were up slightly before the bell at around $399.

Shares of some cloud computing stocks are slipping this morning after Google and Blackstone (BX) announced a joint venture that will provide access to cloud computing through Google's specialized AI chips. Blackstone is contributing $5 billion to launch the new company. The Wall Street Journal reported ahead of the announcement that Blackstone will hold a majority stake in the new venture. Shares of CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius Group (NBIS), a pair of cloud providers that rent access to advanced AI chips, were were recently down about 4%.