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Prediction market bettors have placed all sorts of bets on Nvidia's upcoming earnings report.
Credit: Ying Tang / NurPhoto via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Traders' bets on Nvidia's next set of quarterly results appear to align with analyst expectations.
• Prediction markets bettors place high odds on Nvidia's stock hitting a new high this month.

You can parse Nvidia's next earnings report for the latest on profit margins and the AI buildout. Or you can just bet on the words that will come out of Jensen Huang's mouth.

Nvidia (NVDA) is set to report its latest results Wednesday, and some traders are focused on the latter. Prediction-markets betters are putting money on what they think Huang, its CEO—or other members of the company's staff—will say during its earnings call, part of a search for new ways to profit from corporate news beyond share-price movements. (If you're more interested in what might happen to Nvidia's stock after it reports, click here.)

"Gaming" is the most popular bet—and an obvious one, since it is one of the key markets in which Nvidia specializes. Other favorites include "hyperscaler," "omniverse," and "H20," all of which refer to some element of the business and have been uttered during past earnings calls, according to transcripts provided by AlphaSense. (Odds are lower for "domestic" and "Trump," with traders placing a less than coin-flip chance of those making the cut.)

WHY THIS MATTERS TO YOU

Prediction markets aren't the main venue for evaluating what traders think stocks will do, but they do offer some insight on investor sentiment for certain companies' shares.

These wagers are being made at a generally positive time for the stock. Shares of Nvidia outpaced the rest of the Magnificent 7 last week, closing over 4% higher, after Huang got a last-minute invitation to President Donald Trump's China summit and the administration signed off on some advanced chip sales to the country.

Some event contracts across Polymarket and Kalshi with high perceived odds of occurring might seem like no-brainers. Traders on Polymarket appear all but certain, for example, that the chipmaker's first-quarter adjusted EPS will come in higher than the Street's consensus estimate of $1.77.

Traders also appear to align with Street analysts on Nvidia's first-quarter data center revenue and overall gross margins. They place a 95%-plus likelihood that data center sales will come in above $65 billion, compared to analysts expectations of around $73 billion, according to Visible Alpha. The most popular bet for quarterly gross margins—for them to land between 75% and 76%—is also where Street estimates land.

The more uncertain, and potentially lucrative, prediction market bets on Nvidia have to do with where its stock will go this month. The favored outcome was recently $240, with traders placing a 68% probability on the stock reaching a new all-time high.

Bettors stand to make a lot more on a trade that has shares of the company going to $160, a 1% bet—but that would. require the stock to fall almost 30% from Friday's close.

News of the day for May 18, 2026

Stocks lost ground on Friday, though the S&P 500 still managed to post a seventh straight week of gains.
Credit: Timothy A. Clary / AFP / Getty Images

Stock futures are slightly lower this morning as investors prepare for a busy week of earnings reports and monitor developments in Iran; Nvidia, Walmart, Target and Home Depot are among the big names on the earnings calendar this week; Dominion Energy shares are surging as the company announced a deal to be acquired by rival NextEra Energy; UnitedHealth Group shares are losing ground after Berkshire Hathaway's latest quarterly filing revealed the investment giant sold its stake in the insurer in the first quarter; and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals stock is tumbling on disappointing clinical trial results. Here's what you need to know today.

Stock Futures Slip After Sluggish Finish to Last Week

Stock futures are slightly lower ahead of a busy week of earnings reports, as investors monitor the latest developments in Iran. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were recently down 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, while Nasdaq futures hovered near unchanged. All three indexes fell on Friday as tech stocks struggled after a recent rally, but the S&P 500 still managed to post gains for a seventh straight week. West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude oil benchmark, were little-changed at around $105, after rising to nearly $109 earlier in the session, after President Trump said on social media over the weekend that the "clock is ticking" for Iran as the wait for a deal to end the war continues to drag on. Gold futures were down slightly at about $4,555 an ounce, while bitcoin extended a slump that started late last week, trading around $77,400 after climbing as high as $82,000 last week. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.59%, down from last week's close of 4.60%, its highest point in a year.

Nvidia, Walmart, Several Other Retailers Headline Busy Earnings Week

It's a big week of earnings reports, with results from Nvidia (NVDA) set to dominate headlines, while retail giants Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), TJX Companies (TJX), Home Depot (HD) and Lowe's (LOW) are also scheduled to release their quarterly numbers. Meanwhile, the minutes from last month's meeting of the Federal Reserve's policy committee are due to be released Wednesday and could provide insights into how Fed officials see inflation and their interest rate moves playing out this year. Investors will also be on the lookout for updates to SpaceX's initial public offering plans, after CNBC reported on Friday that the company's prospectus could be filed as soon as this week, giving investors their first look into SpaceX's financials.

Dominion Stock Jumps on Deal to be Acquired by NextEra Energy

Shares of Dominion Energy (D) are surging this morning after a deal was announced for it to be acquired by NextEra Energy (NEE). The companies said Monday that Dominion shareholders will get just over 0.8 shares of NextEra for each Dominion share they own. NextEra shareholders will own just under 75% of the new company, and the deal is expected to close in the next 12 to 18 months. Multiple reports over the weekend suggested the deal was close to done, and would value Dominion at about $76 per share, or $66 billion, a premium of more than 20% to Friday's close of $61.73. Shares of Dominion were up 15% ahead of the opening bell, poised to hit their highest mark since October 2022, while NextEra stock fell about 2%.

UnitedHealth Drops on News Berkshire Sold Stake

Shares of UnitedHealth Group (UNH) are lower this morning as investors react to news that came out after markets closed Friday: Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A, BRK.B) latest quarterly filing detailing its stock holdings. The investment giant, now led by CEO Greg Abel after Warren Buffett retired at the end of last year, sold off its stakes in UnitedHealth, Amazon (AMZN), Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V), among others, in the first quarter. Berkshire also added new positions in Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Macy's (M) in the quarter. UnitedHealth shares were down 4% in recent premarket trading, weighing on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Shares of Delta and Macy's were up more than 2%, while Amazon, Mastercard and Visa were little-changed.

Regeneron Stock Falls On Latest Clinical Trial Results

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) stock is tumbling Monday after the drugmaker said that the latest trial for one of its drugs in development failed to meet its goals. Regeneron said late Friday that a trial testing a combination of doses of fianlimab and cemiplimab as a treatment for melanoma "did not reach statistical significance for the primary endpoint of improvement in progression-free survival" compared to another existing treatment. Regeneron shares were down nearly 12% ahead of the opening bell.

Target shares are up close to 25% since the start of the year.
Credit: Kevin Carter / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Target is scheduled to post earnings ahead of the opening bell Wednesday, with the retailer's stock expected to make big moves following the results.
• Target shares have jumped this year amid enthusiasm around new CEO Michael Fiddelke's turnaround plan, which was detailed in Target's fourth-quarter report in March.

Target is scheduled to report earnings ahead of the opening bell Wednesday, with the retailer's stock seen potentially testing its highest point in over a year following the results.

Based on recent options pricing, traders anticipate Target (TGT) shares could move up to around 7% in either direction by the end of the week. A move of that size from Friday's close could lift shares above $130, their highest level since early 2025. The low end of that range would drag them under $113.

Target shares are up close to 25% since the start of the year, amid growing optimism around new CEO Michael Fiddelke's turnaround plan, which was detailed in Target's last report in March. The plan includes boosting spending this year to revamp store layouts and product assortments, while also investing in workers and new technology features.

Why This Matters to Investors

Target's latest earnings could give investors and analysts insight into the company's efforts to return to consistent sales growth, as well as the broader health of the American consumer.

Morgan Stanley analysts recently wrote that they expect Target's first-quarter results to come in "modestly" ahead of estimates. The analysts said Target's stock is trading at a discount compared to retail rivals amid uncertainty around its margins and "varying expectations" for the success of Fiddelke's new initiatives.

Target is expected to report a 3% jump in revenue to $24.56 billion, its first year-over-year increase in sales in five quarters, along with adjusted earnings per share of $1.41, up 11 cents from the same quarter a year ago. Comparable store sales are projected to have climbed 2%, according to Visible Alpha estimates.

Analysts remain cautious on Target's stock, with the ten analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha split among three "buy," six neutral, and one "sell" rating. Their average price target just shy of $122, is less than a $1 above Friday's closing price.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is slated to update investors this week.
Credit: Brendan Smialowski / AFP via Getty Images

Investors have spent weeks looking through earnings reports. The Big Tech results due this week may be the most closely watched of all.

That's right: We're talking about Nvidia, by a substantial margin the world's most valuable company, which is set to publish its first-quarter results Wednesday evening. The market looks to Nvidia to help understand how sound business is for AI companies and related businesses, from computing parts to data centers and energy sources to power it all. This segment of the tech sector has been behind much of the stock market’s growth in recent years—and recent weeks.

Nvidia, which designs chips and provides services for AI operations, said in March that demand for its hardware and software was “off the charts." CEO Jensen Huang doubled projections for Nvidia's Vera Rubin and Blackwell products, saying they may bring in more than $1 trillion, rather than $500 billion, by the end of 2026. The shares have risen lately and are up some 20% this year.

What will happen when the numbers land? Nvidia beat analysts’ expectations last quarter, but its shares tumbled anyway. Traders can be cagey when expectations are high. Investors also have a history of reacting to conflicting concerns about AI: They want companies to invest in the technology, but not so much that they can't make a commensurate return.

Another corporate heavyweight is slated to release results this week: Walmart. The retailer will address traders shortly after the Consumer Price Index registered a 3.8% annual increase in April. The data suggested prices are broadly rising in response to skyrocketing fuel costs. Last quarter, Walmart executives said shoppers appeared to be "resilient."

Market Recap

Investors backed off from the recent run higher in stocks to close out last week's trading, though the S&P 500 still managed to log weekly gains for a seventh straight week. (The Nasdaq Composite came close.) Friday's pullback was marked by a retreat across many of the Magnificent 7 stocks, including Nvidia, and a rise in Treasury yields. For more, read Investopedia's Friday market recap here.

This Week's Top Events

Here's a look at the most notable events happening in the week ahead. TradingView publishes a more detailed calendar, but clicking the link will take you off the Investopedia site.

• Tuesday, May 19: Home Depot (HD) is set to host a conference call to discuss its latest results, expected. before the call starts at 9 a.m. ET. Competitor Lowe’s (LOW) will report Wednesday. The retailers’ sales have been under pressure because few Americans are moving or renovating. The housing market and renovation cycle will regain momentum, Home Depot CEO Edward Decker said last quarter, though he wasn't certain when.
• Wednesday, May 20: Target (TGT) is scheduled to host a conference call on its first-quarter results at 8 a.m. ET, with earnings figures expected ahead of the event. Last quarter, new CEO Michael Fiddelke discussed the strategies he hopes can restore the company to growth.
• Wednesday: TJX Cos. (TJX) is slated to release its first-quarter results before the stock market opens, followed by a conference call at 11 a.m. ET. The parent company of TJ Maxx and Marshalls has had strong sales in recent months, as consumers turned to off-price retailers in search of savings. Ross Stores (ROST) is set to report results on Thursday.
• Wednesday: The Fed plans to release minutes from the April meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee at 2 p.m. ET. The minutes may offer more insight about the decision to hold rates steady passed with more dissenting votes than any Fed decision since 1992. Investors will look for clues on how the Fed is thinking about inflation and the sluggish job market.
• Wednesday: Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to release its first-quarter results at around 4:20 p.m. ET, followed by a webcast at 5 p.m. ET.
• Thursday, May 21: Walmart (WMT) is slated to release first-quarter results at 7 a.m. ET, followed by a conference call at 8 a.m. ET. Walmart reported better-than-expected results last quarter, but shares slipped when its outlook was more measured than anticipated.

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Home Depot shares are down close to 14% since the start of the year.
Credit: Kevin Carter / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Home Depot reports earnings Tuesday morning, with traders expecting the retailer's stock could move up to about 5% in either direction by the end of the week following the report.
• The retailer's stock has slipped recently amid worries that rising inflation and a stagnant housing market could slow spending on home improvement projects.

Home Depot is set to report its next quarterly results ahead of the opening bell Tuesday, with the retailer's stock seen potentially extending its recent slump.

Current options pricing suggests traders are expecting Home Depot (HD) shares could swing up to about 5% by the end of the week following the results. A move of that size from Friday's close could lift the home improvement retailer's shares as high as $311, recovering some of their recent slide, or drag them down to $284, their lowest point since October 2023.

Home Depot shares are down close to 14% since the start of the year, as rising inflation has fueled concerns that spending on home improvement projects and "big ticket" purchases like appliances could be pressured.

Why This Matters to Investors

Results from Home Depot, and rival Lowe's (LOW) on Wednesday, could provide insights into the home improvement industry and housing market, which executives said in last quarter's earnings call doesn't look to be on track to pick up this year.

Bank of America analysts recently reinstated their coverage of Home Depot with a "buy" rating and $374 price target, calling the company their "preferred stock" in the home improvement industry. The analysts said they see Home Depot's sales growing faster than others in the sector, as they expect retailer's investments in growing its customer base of professional contractors to pay off.

Home Depot is expected to report revenue of $41.65 billion, up about 5% year-over-year, along with adjusted earnings of $3.40 per share, down 16 cents from the same time last year. Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, likely rose about 0.9%, according to Visible Alpha estimates.

Analysts are largely bullish on Home Depot, with all nine analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha calling the retailer's stock a "buy." Their average price target of just under $420 would imply over 40% upside from Friday's close.

Investors have been eager to see how new CEO Greg Abel could shape Berkshire's investment strategy
Credit: Dan Brouillette / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Berkshire Hathaway purchased new stakes in Delta and Macy's during Greg Abel's first quarter as CEO of the conglomerate, a filing Friday showed.
• The company also cut its stakes in Amazon, Mastercard, UnitedHealth, Visa and several others.

Berkshire Hathaway is shaking up its portfolio after getting a new CEO.

The conglomerate added new stakes in Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Macy's (M) during Greg Abel's first quarter as CEO, a regulatory filing Friday showed. Warren Buffett stepped down as CEO at the end of last year after six decades at the helm, though he has said he is still involved in investment decisions.

Shares of Delta added 3% in extended trading Friday following the news, after losing 2% during the regular session on a down day for broader markets. Macy's stock jumped more than 5% in the after-hours session.

Why This Matters to Investors

Investors have been eager to see how Berkshire's investment strategy could change under CEO Greg Abel, who replaced legendary investor Warren Buffett in the position earlier this year.

Berkshire's (BRK.A, BRK.B) new stake in Delta totaled 39.8 million shares at the end of the first quarter, while it held roughly 3 million shares of Macy's, making both far smaller stakes than Berkshire's largest holdings. Shares of Delta, which have taken a hit recently amid worries about rising fuel prices as the war in Iran drags on, have added just 1% since the start of the year, while Macy's stock has lost nearly 17%.

Meanwhile, Berkshire more than tripled its stake in Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) to close to 58 million shares from 17.8 million in the fourth quarter. Apple remained its largest holding, with close to 228 million shares—unchanged from the previous quarter, after three straight quarters of cuts.

The company also eliminated its stakes in Amazon (AMZN), Mastercard (MA), UnitedHealth (UNH) and Visa (V), among others. UnitedHealth shares dropped more than 4% in after-hours trading, while shares of the other three companies were little-changed.

The choices to exit those stocks could potentially point to changes Abel's made to offload the picks of Todd Combs, who left Berkshire for JPMorgan at the end of 2025.

Shares of Berkshire Hathaway have lost about 4% since the start of the year, compared to the S&P 500's roughly 8% gain, amid some uncertainty about Abel's leadership and the loss of a "Buffett premium."

Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with American President Donald Trump at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Thursday.
Credit: Huang Jingwen / Xinhua via Getty Images

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• President Donald Trump’s visit to China ended without a major trade deal, but also avoided any escalations.
• China committed to purchasing U.S. goods, including oil, soybeans, and Boeing airplanes, and proposed investment and trade boards.
• The trade war truce is set to expire in October, with another round of talks planned for September.

President Donald Trump returned from his big diplomatic trip to China Friday without much in the way of concrete progress on trade talks—but experts say the quiet summit was still a favorable outcome for the economy.

Trump traveled to China on Wednesday to meet with his counterpart, Xi Jinping, and negotiate a resolution to the trade war that roiled the U.S. and global economies last year. The meeting ended without a major deal, but there were some agreements, according to Trump's comments and interviews with cabinet officials.

Trump said China promised to buy oil, soybeans, and 200 Boeing airplanes from the U.S, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the two countries could form a trade board that would exempt $30 billion worth of products from tariffs.

The commitments were minor on the scale of global trade, but without major setbacks, some experts called the summit's outcome a win.

"I'd say the relationship, at least on the economic and broader economic security perspective, is being stabilized, at least temporarily. It's not being repaired," Rush Doshi, senior fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, said in a media briefing Friday. "And I think that actually matters a lot economically, because companies and investors, they do need the U.S.-China relationship to be at least calm."

Why This Matters

A stable U.S.-China relationship could help businesses avoid another wave of supply chain disruptions and tariff-related price increases.

At the very least, the summit left intact a truce in the trade war that flared up between the world's two largest economies last year after Trump imposed punishing tariffs on Chinese products, and China retaliated by restricting supplies of crucial rare earth minerals used in all kinds of manufacturing. The rare earth embargo could have caused a major supply chain disruption and even sent the U.S. into a recession had it gone fully into effect, economists say.

The truce is set to expire in October, and the two sides have agreed to another round of talks in September. In the meantime, the issue of tariffs and rare earth minterals is still unresolved.

"It's hard to imagine it did not come up behind closed doors," Heidi E. Crebo-Rediker, senior fellow at the CFR, said at the briefing. "I do think that the fact that there was important consensus on maintaining stable economic and trade relations alluded to the fact that we're probably going to see an extension of this. But I think this vulnerability is not going away anytime soon."

Still, the board of trade could provide a framework for more concrete benefits, Yan Bennett, international affairs expert and lecturer at American University, wrote in a commentary.

"So what was achieved in the summit? On the surface, very little," she wrote. "It was telling that Trump himself wasn't being very 'Trumpian' on what could be achieved during the summit. He wasn't promising the moon."

And the fact that the two sides are talking the issue over rather than reigniting the threats and trade wars that raged last year suggested progress could be made at some point, or at least that the truce remains intact.

"We can all breathe a sigh of relief as the Trump-Xi summit appears to have been a success," Shelly Kaushik, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a commentary. "While there were few concrete items coming out of the meetings, there's been plenty of praise, greetings, compliments—and an invite to visit Washington in September. If anything, nothing looks to have gone wrong."

Nvidia shares have surged more than 20% since the start of the year.
Credit: Krisztian Bocsi / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Nvidia's next quarterly results are due after the closing bell on Wednesday, with traders anticipating its stock could reach new highs after the report.
• The world's most valuable company is expected to report rising sales and profits as big tech companies continue to ramp up spending on AI hardware.

Nvidia is set to report earnings after the closing bell Wednesday, with traders anticipating a big move in the chipmaker's stock that could take it to new highs.

Traders are expecting a move of up to 7% by the end of the week following the results, based on recent options pricing. A move of that size from Friday's close could boost Nvidia (NVDA) shares to a record high above $240. The low end of that range could drag them under $210, giving back some of their recent gains.

Nvidia shares are up more than 20% since the start of the year, amid renewed enthusiasm around the AI trade as other chipmakers have posted strong results this earnings season. Earlier this week, shares were also boosted by CEO Jensen Huang's inclusion among a group of CEOs who traveled with President Trump and other U.S. officials to China, though they pulled back Friday.

Why This Matters to Investors

Nvidia's earnings report has become one of the biggest events of the financial calendar, as it's seen as a bellwether for the broader AI industry and can move a wide range of stocks.

Oppenheimer analysts recently wrote that they see Nvidia beating Wall Street's estimates, with several big tech companies lifting their capital expenditures forecasts last month. However, strong results haven't always lifted the stock in the days following the event in recent quarters, as shares slumped in February despite a blockbuster report.

Analysts currently project Nvidia's first-quarter revenue to come in at a record $78.50 billion, up nearly 80% year-over-year, while adjusted earnings per share are expected to more than double to $1.75, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.

Wall Street analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on Nvidia. Twelve of the 13 analysts with current ratings tracked by Visible Alpha have called the chipmaker's stock a "buy," compared to just one neutral rating. Their average price target of $274 would suggest over 20% upside from Friday's close.

Take A Number: A Striking Figure In Economic News Today

Inflation could rise substantially if forecasters are correct.
Credit: Investopedia / Elizabeth Guevara

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Economists expect inflation to rise to 6% in the second quarter, doubling earlier forecasts.
• Rising oil prices, driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure, are fueling higher transportation and product costs.
• Economic growth projections for 2026 have been lowered to 2.2%, reflecting inflation's broader impact.

If your household budget has struggled to keep up with inflation around 3%, just wait until it doubles.

Economists now expect the Consumer Price Index to rise at an annualized 6% rate in the second quarter, according to a survey of 33 professional forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released Friday. That’s more than double the prewar forecast of a 2.7% inflation rate, which was largely based on late February readings before the war in Iran caused an oil crunch and sent fuel prices soaring, and well above the 3.1% inflation rate in the first quarter of the year.

The survey highlights how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a chain of price increases, shaking up the economic outlook. Fuel prices have surged more than $1.50 a gallon since February, according to AAA, and those higher transportation costs are showing up in all kinds of products. Inflation is now running at its highest since 2023, and will be at its highest since 2022 if the forecast is correct.

Higher prices are denting economic growth, too. Forecasters now expect the economy, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product, to grow 2.2% in 2026, down from 2.5% in the previous forecast.

Shares of AI chipmaker Cerebras jumped 68% in their first day of trading on Thursday.
Credit: Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Investors appear eager to get a slice of AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic, although some market watchers wonder if AI enthusiasm can support stocks amid a proliferation of options.
• The public may get its first comprehensive look at SpaceX's financials next week, potentially offering investors insight into the economics of developing frontier AI models.

Companies are lining up to cash in on the market’s AI enthusiasm. The question of just how insatiable Wall Street's appetite really is looms over markets in the months ahead.

“That is a big question in terms of how people reposition their portfolios,” Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower, told CNBC on Friday morning. “Is there room to just add AI or is this going to be kind of net-net flat and people are just repositioning within AI?"

That, Norton said, is "yet to be determined." 

This year is shaping up to be big for AI IPOs. CNBC on Thursday reported Elon Musk’s SpaceX could publish its prospectus as soon as next week, bringing the space exploration and AI company one step closer to executing the largest IPO in history. SpaceX, valued at $1.25 trillion in February when it merged with Musk’s startup xAI, confidentially filed to go public last month.

The company reportedly aims to launch a roadshow in mid-June to line up buyers for the record-shattering $70 billion to $75 billion of stock it intends to sell. Leading frontier model labs OpenAI and Anthropic are also reportedly targeting market listings later this year. 

Why This Matters To Investors

Investors have been eager for a revival of the IPO market ever since the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle plunged it into a deep freeze in 2022. Now, start-ups with ballooning valuations are preparing for mega-IPOs that could flood the market with AI stocks.

AI stocks have been on a tear in recent weeks, lifting the major indexes to a series of record highs. The meteoric rise of certain stocks, especially memory device makers like SanDisk (SNDK) and chipmakers like Intel (INTC), has elicited comparisons to the Dotcom Bubble, and prompted some to predict a cooling off of animal spirits in the near-term.

But others still see potential for booming demand for data center equipment to propel tech stocks even further. One data point, according to Norton: Yesterday's upbeat response to the trading debut of AI chipmaker Cerebras (CBRS). “What we saw yesterday is that there is demand, at least at these early stages, for some of these AI IPOs,” she said.

Cerebras shares popped 68% in their first day, giving the company a market capitalization of about $95 billion, four times its private valuation in February. Cerebras raised more than $5.5 billion on Thursday, making its listing the largest U.S. tech IPO since Uber in 2019. (Its shares pulled back on Friday as tech stocks as a whole took a breather.)

While Wall Street’s enthusiasm for AI has endured the past several years, it hasn’t always been smooth sailing. Widespread uncertainty about the technology’s commercial and societal impacts has made the AI rally vulnerable to sharp pullbacks. The release of a new model by Chinese start-up DeepSeek in early 2025 was treated as a black swan event, until investors shrugged it off. Software stocks fall victim to frenzied selling just about any time Anthropic releases a new product. 

Even the AI start-ups whose IPOs could suck the oxygen out of the room can quickly fall out of favor with investors. Anthropic lived in the shadow of ChatGPT-maker OpenAI for years. Then its premier model, Claude, gained traction with business leaders and generated buzz on Wall Street. Its revenue more than tripled in the first few months of this year, and the start-up’s valuation soared to $1 trillion, leapfrogging OpenAI. 

How investors respond to upcoming mega-IPOs will also depend on the finances of those companies. Anthropic and OpenAI are both expected to burn through cash for several more years before reaching profitability, but the specifics of their finances remain privileged. If SpaceX does release its prospectus next week, it will be the public’s first comprehensive look at the finances of one of America’s most-valuable companies. 

Investor demand for exposure to burgeoning tech giants has already changed the market to a degree. Robinhood (HOOD) last year began offering tokenized shares of OpenAI and SpaceX to customers in Europe. And S&P Dow Jones Indices and Nasdaq, which oversee the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, are making or considering changes to their index eligibility criteria that would fast-track inclusion for newly listed mega caps.