INVESTOR IN THE FAMILY Radio

Doug Eberhardt is one of 25 Seeking Alpha Contributors participating in the 2017 DIY Investing Summit. In the summit, one of the questions I asked Doug was what would be the main points of a "State of the Markets" speech to DIY investors. Below is an excerpt from the interview and a summary of his response.

http://diyinvestingsummit2017.com/

Doug's "State of the Precious Metals Markets..."

• Precious metals are currently in a small bull market but will likely top out this year.
• Expects a major, deflationary credity contraction (likely China related) that will put significant downward pressure on gold.
• His ideal buy price is $900, but after this deflationary cycle, expects gold to reach "undreamed of heights."
• More...

This is just a small excerpt of what's covered in the interview.

The interview is full of detailed tips on Doug's core investment strategies, top advice for DIY investors and specific ways he's positioning for 2017.

Enjoy the full interview with Doug and other top investors on Seeking Alpha. Registration for the summit is now open and free for a limited time.

Don't like audio/video interviews?

If you prefer to read content as opposed to watch and listen, detailed summary sheets have been created for every interview as an optional add-on.

Full list of summit contributors:

Chris DeMuth, Bret Jensen, Brad Thomas, Eric Parnell, Rida Morwa, Ian Bezek, Richard Lejeune, Richard Berger, Aurelien Windenberger, Doug Eberhardt, Dividend Sensei, Ralph Baker, Lawrence Fuller, Double Dividend Stocks, Mark Bern, Mark Hibben, Dividend House, J Mintzmyer, William Koldus, Damon Verial, Avi Gilburt, Shailesh Kumar, Chuck Carnevale, Adam Aloisi and Colorado Wealth Management.

Join Doug at the DIY Investor Summit (free for a limited time) where he shares detailed tips on his core investment strategies, top advice for DIY investors and specific ways he's positioning for 2017.

Companies mentioned in Doug's interview: Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV), Gold Miners Bull 3x (NUGT), Junior Gold Miners Bull 3x (JNUG), 20 Year Treasury (TLT), S&P 500 (SPY)

Disclosure: This article is for information purposes only. There are risks involved with investing, including loss of principal. Brian and Investor in the Family make no explicit or implicit guarantee with respect to performance or the outcome of any investment or projections made. There is no guarantee that the goals of the strategies discussed by Brian and Investor in the Family will be met.

Chuck Carnevale is one of 25 Seeking Alpha Contributors participating in the 2017 DIY Investing Summit. In the summit, one of the questions I asked Chuck was what his top advice would be for DIY investors. Below is an excerpt from the interview and a summary of his response.

http://diyinvestingsummit2017.com/

Chuck's top advice for DIY investors...

• Focus on fundamentals and don't trust stock prices.
• Concentrate your portfolio (20-25 stocks) so you can actually have time to to research and follow them properly. At the same time, make sure to stay diversified enough to protect your money.
• Don't get caught up in hype, don't chase prices. Do yourself a favor and look at companies without the stock price in mind.
• "Inactivity strikes us as intelligent behavior." - Warren Buffett
• More...

This is just a small excerpt of what's covered in the interview.

The interview is full of detailed tips on Chuck's core investment strategies, top advice for DIY investors, and specific ways he's positioning for 2017.

Enjoy the full interview with Chuck and other top investors on Seeking Alpha. Registration for the summit is now open and free for a limited time.

Don't like audio/video interviews?

If you prefer to read content as opposed to watch and listen, detailed summary sheets have been created for every interview as an optional add-on.

Full list of summit contributors:

Chris DeMuth, Bret Jensen, Rida Morwa, Brad Thomas, Eric Parnell, Ian Bezek, Richard Lejeune, Richard Berger, Aurelien Windenberger, Doug Eberhardt, Dividend Sensei, Ralph Baker, Lawrence Fuller, Double Dividend Stocks, Mark Bern, Mark Hibben, Dividend House, J Mintzmyer, William Koldus, Damon Verial, Avi Gilburt, Shailesh Kumar, Chuck Carnevale, Adam Aloisi, and Colorado Wealth Management

Join Chuck at the DIY Investor Summit (free for a limited time) where he shares detailed tips on his core investment strategies, top advice for DIY investors, and specific ways he's positioning for 2017.

Companies mentioned in J's interview: Blackberry (BBRY), Aflac (AFL), Mcrosoft (MSFT), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Church & Dwight (CHD), AbbVie (ABBV), Cardinal Health (CAH), Target (TGT), AT&T (T), Medtronic (MDT), PPG Industries (PPG), Franklin Resources (BEN), T Rowe Price (TROW), S&P 500 (SPY)

Disclosure: This article is for information purposes only. There are risks involved with investing including loss of principal. Brian and Investor in the Family make no explicit or implicit guarantee with respect to performance or the outcome of any investment or projections made. There is no guarantee that the goals of the strategies discussed by Brian and Investor in the Family will be met.

Chris DeMuth is one of 25 Seeking Alpha Contributors participating in the 2017 DIY Investing Summit. In the summit, one of the questions I asked Chris was how he is positioning himself for 2017. Below is an excerpt from the interview and a summary of his response.

http://diyinvestingsummit2017.com/

How Chris is prepping for 2017...

• Looking for ideas with hard catalysts. As markets get more expensive, investments require harder and more compelling evidence.
• Has big positions in Rite-Aid (RAD), BNCCorp (BNCC), and Bob Evans (BOBE).
• Believes that a double digit market decline could be on the horizon and wants to be ready. This is a good time to be comfortable with cash and value flexibility.
• A good idea to be more liquid than marginal counterparty.

This is just a small excerpt of what's covered in the interview.

The interview is full of detailed tips on Chris's core investment strategies, top advice for DIY investors and specific ways he's positioning for 2017.

Enjoy the full interview with Chris and other top investors on Seeking Alpha. Registration for the summit is now open and free for a limited time.

Don't like audio/video interviews?

If you prefer to read content as opposed to watch and listen, detailed summary sheets have been created for every interview as an optional add-on. These are better than transcripts, they get to the point and capture all of the highlights.

Full list of summit contributors:

Chris DeMuth, Bret Jensen, Brad Thomas, Eric Parnell, Rida Morwa, Ian Bezek, Richard Lejeune, Richard Berger, Aurelien Windenberger, Doug Eberhardt, Dividend Sensei, Ralph Baker, Lawrence Fuller, Double Dividend Stocks, Mark Bern, Mark Hibben, Dividend House, J Mintzmyer, William Koldus, Damon Verial, Avi Gilburt, Shailesh Kumar, Chuck Carnevale, Adam Aloisi and Colorado Wealth Management.

Join Chris at the DIY Investor Summit (free for a limited time) where he shares detailed tips on his core investment strategies, top advice for DIY investors and specific ways he's positioning for 2017.

Companies mentioned in Chris's interview: Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD), BNC Corp (OTCQX:BNCC), Bob Evans (NASDAQ:BOBE), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Valeant (NYSE:VRX), Ocean Shore (NASDAQ:OSHC), Biotechnology (NASDAQ:IBB), S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY)

Disclosure: This article is for information purposes only. There are risks involved with investing, including loss of principal. Brian and Investor in the Family make no explicit or implicit guarantee with respect to performance or the outcome of any investment or projections made. There is no guarantee that the goals of the strategies discussed by Brian and Investor in the Family will be met.

Chris DeMuth is one of 25 Seeking Alpha Contributors participating in the 2017 DIY Investing Summit. In the summit, one of the questions I asked Chris was what would be the main points of a "State of the Markets" speech to DIY investors. Below is an excerpt from the interview and a summary of his response.

Chris's "State of the Markets..."

• Markets are fully priced
• Overall market cap is 1.25x of GDP
• Markets historically don't do well at these levels
• We also have a bursting bond bubble
• Credit is tightening
• What we "think we know" about stocks may be changing due to shifts in the bond market
• This bull market will suck everyone in before it's done
• A dramatic environment does not warrant a dramatic response
• Be sure to always underpay
• Look for individual situations where people are panicking and not paying attention
• Would be in cash if there are no compelling ideas

This is just a small excerpt of what's covered in the interview.

The interview if full of detailed tips on Chris's core investment strategies, top advice for DIY investors, and specific ways he's positioning for 2017.

Enjoy the full interview with Chris and other top investors on Seeking Alpha. Registration for the summit is now open and free for a limited time.

Don't like audio/video interviews?

If you prefer to read content as opposed to watch and listen, detailed summary sheets have been created for every interview as an optional add-on. These are better than transcripts, they get to the point and capture all of the highlights.

Full list of summit contributors:

Chris DeMuth, Bret Jensen, Brad Thomas, Eric Parnell, Rida Morwa, Ian Bezek, Richard Lejeune, Richard Berger, Aurelien Windenberger, Doug Eberhardt, Dividend Sensei, Ralph Baker, Lawrence Fuller, Double Dividend Stocks, Mark Bern, Mark Hibben, Dividend House, J Mintzmyer, William Koldus, Damon Verial, Avi Gilburt, Shailesh Kumar, Chuck Carnevale, Adam Aloisi, and Colorado Wealth Management

Join Chris at the DIY Investor Summit (free for a limited time) where he shares detailed tips on his core investment strategies, top advice for DIY investors, and specific ways he's positioning for 2017.

http://diyinvestingsummit.com/

Companies mentioned in Chris's interview: Rite Aid (RAD), BNC Corp (BNCC), Bob Evans (BOBE), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Valeant (VRX), Ocean Shore (OSHC), Biotechnology (IBB), S&P 500 (SPY)

Disclosure: This article is for information purposes only. There are risks involved with investing including loss of principal. Brian and Investor in the Family make no explicit or implicit guarantee with respect to performance or the outcome of any investment or projections made. There is no guarantee that the goals of the strategies discussed by Brian and Investor in the Family will be met.

J Mintzmyer is one of 25 Seeking Alpha Contributors participating in the 2017 DIY Investing Summit. In the summit, one of the questions I asked J was what his top advice would be for DIY investors. Below is an excerpt from the interview and a summary of his response.

J's top advice for DIY investors...

• The more you invest, the more you realize you're fallible
• Limit your allocations to speculative investments (no more than 20-30% of portfolio)
• Don't let someone else dictate your style
• Never invest money you think you'll need in 3-5 years
• Try to limit your emotions as best as possible
• Your investments should be based on fundamentals (ex: earnings? cash flow? etc) and should be a story you believe in
• If the story changes, sell; don't try to hang around and get lucky
• If price drops and fundamentals are intact, don't panic
• Remember why you bought

This is just a small excerpt of what's covered in the interview.

The interview if full of detailed tips on J's core investment strategies, top advice for DIY investors, and specific ways he's positioning for 2017.

Enjoy the full interview with J and other top investors on Seeking Alpha. Registration for the summit is now open and free for a limited time.

Don't like audio/video interviews?

If you prefer to read content as opposed to watch and listen, detailed summary sheets have been created for every interview as an optional add-on. These are better than transcripts, they get to the point and capture all of the highlights.

Full list of summit contributors:

Chris DeMuth, Bret Jensen, Rida Morwa, Brad Thomas, Eric Parnell, Ian Bezek, Richard Lejeune, Richard Berger, Aurelien Windenberger, Doug Eberhardt, Dividend Sensei, Ralph Baker, Lawrence Fuller, Double Dividend Stocks, Mark Bern, Mark Hibben, Dividend House, Rida Morwa, J Mintzmyer, William Koldus, Damon Verial, Avi Gilburt, Shailesh Kumar, Chuck Carnevale, Adam Aloisi, and Colorado Wealth Management

Join J at the DIY Investor Summit (free for a limited time) where he shares detailed tips on his core investment strategies, top advice for DIY investors, and specific ways he's positioning for 2017.

Companies mentioned in J's interview: Golar LNG Partners (GMLP), Teekay Corporation (TK), S&P 500 (SPY)

Disclosure: This article is for information purposes only. There are risks involved with investing including loss of principal. Brian and Investor in the Family make no explicit or implicit guarantee with respect to performance or the outcome of any investment or projections made. There is no guarantee that the goals of the strategies discussed by Brian and Investor in the Family will be met.

This week we dive into one of the most significant threats to global trade: currency valuations.

Will the U.S. and Chinese tensions lead to a currency war?

How has the Mexican peso responded to foreshadowed Trump policies?

Should we even care?

I hope you enjoy the podcast.

Don't forget to sign up for the DIY Investing Summit, created in partnership with Seeking Alpha.

If you enjoy this podcast, you'll think the summit is the best thing ever.

http://diyinvestingsummit2017.com/

Overview

• Even people who warned of big corrections if Trump were elected are now calling for bigger gains to come
• The volatility index (VIX) fell to it's lowest level in 2.5 years last week
• The crude oil volatility (OVX) fell to two year lows
• Treasury yields (10-year) have jumped above 2.5% (up from 1.36%)
• The S&P 500 recently traded at 22.3 times what it's companies earned in previous 4 quarters
• Higher than 92% of readings since 1929
• The previous 9 times when trailing price/earnings valuations topped 22 times, the index saw pullbacks avg 2.6% 3 months later and 6.2% after 6 months
• Sentiment has improved, but data says household spending has not
• The US economy may be "humming along" but it needs a new catalyst to show investors we aren't at the peak of the current cycle - Nicholas Colas, Convergex
• • For now sentiment is enough, but in 2017 the new administration will need to deliver
• The IPO market was down big in 2016 and could be poised to rebound in 2017
• • Says Kathleen Smith of Renaissance Capital
  • She estimates the pipeline to be 250 companies strong (were 275 in 2014)
  • Spigot could open in mid-Feb
  • Of note, Snapchat has filed to go public
• Thanks to a new accounting rule, many companies will report better looking profits
• • The rule lets companies use stock based compensation benefits ot reduce their income tax and boost earnings

Have questions? Let me know: brian @investorinthefamily.com

Visit http://investorinthefamily.com/ to become a better investor today.

Never miss any more great content: http://investorinthefamily.com/get-great-content/

Disclaimer: All readers must be fully responsible for and make their own investing decisions. Nothing on this article or website is to be considered formal advice or recommendation.

Overview

• Bank for International Settlements (central bank for central banks) posed the question, "A paradigm shift in the markets?"
• US elections have produced big changes in the markets based on expectations of strong growth in economy and corporate profits, and higher inflation
• Problem, expectations are so strong they border on certainty
• • Assuming Trump platforms will be enacted as he presented them and promptly
• Most expect:
• • GDP growth of 2% after inflation
  • Interest rates (10-yr Treasury note) to 3% from 2.59%
  • US stocks should return single digit %
• This tight range in consensus expectations has led two sage market observers (David Rosenberg and Doug Kass) to invoke Rule #9 of Bob Farrell (Merrill Lynch's legendary former market guru)
• • "When all forecasters and experts agree, something else is going to happen"
• Especially striking?
• • VIX (measures risk) and hovers near year's lows
  • This serene confidence is also evident in high-yield bond market where investors are not asking for much for the risk they bear (half that of last February)
• Consensus assumptions:
• • Trump will follow through on some of his plans on day one (ex: declare China a currency manipulator)
  • • Note: China does not meet the four criteria of the US to be declared a currency manipulator
    • China has actually been liquidating foreign assets in an attempt to stabilize the yuan
    • China has been experiencing what is akin to a bank run as individuals are trying to move money overseas
    • Concerns of confrontation in South China Sea to test Trump administration
    • Chinese warship seized an underwater survey drone used by US Navy last week
  • Assume Trump's fiscal plans will sail through Congress, especially his tax cuts
  • Assume oil prices will continue recovery as opposed to another drop in prices
• Bottom line, there is strong assumption that the positives from November's elections will come to pass and quickly, but the history of 2016 is that what was expected didn't happen and what couldn't happen did
• This suggests risks ahead
• My thoughts:
• • I continue to believe caution is very wise at this stage
  • Caution, not fear
  • Fundamentals clearly say there is higher probability of something bad happening than something good
  • Be extra strict with what you're willing to buy
  • Save cash so you can be nimble to when opportunities arise (fall in markets)
  • REALLY hard to sell when things are "good"
  • REALLY hard to be patient
  • I am wrestling with this with my portfolio, I have positions I'm still waiting to develop, I have hopes for them, I want to keep my activity low, but the markets and good judgment say "caution"

Other news

• The Economist wrote about the fall of Aleppo
• • Main point: as America has stepped back, the vacuum has been filed not by "responsible" countries for the greater good, but the likes of Russia and Iran which are both very anti-US and the West as a whole
  • By failing to stand up for what is supposedly believes in, America and the West just showed the world that it's values are just words and can be ignored without consequence
• My thoughts:
• • The world is fracturing
  • As the West looks inward to "heal" economies (unsuccessfully) the "bad guys" are filling the void
  • Increases concerns over increasing global conflict
  • More reasons for caution

Have questions? Let me know: brian @investorinthefamily.com

Visit http://investorinthefamily.com/ to become a better investor today.

Never miss any more great content: http://investorinthefamily.com/get-great-content/

Disclaimer: All readers must be fully responsible for and make their own investing decisions. Nothing on this article or website is to be considered formal advice or recommendation.

Overview

• Shareholders owe a debt of gratitude to Trump as Dow approaches 20K (in reality a number with little meaning)
• US equities have grown in value by almost 7% since the election
• This all reflects perceptions and expectations, not yet realities
• This is a "hope and faith based rally"
• The outlook for growth and inflation shouldn't change anytime soon since fiscal policy won't change until next year at the earliest
• Regulatory changes that can be implemented by executive order would be the most immediate and potentially most powerful changes
• For the markets, this means more mediocre global growth, subdued inflation, tamped down volatility, more accommodative monetary policy from central banks
• Even so, the "animal spirits" of investors have been aroused
• The boost from a Trump presidency may be bigger for main st than wall st
• Berezin from BCA Research things that rising protectionism my hurt global economy, the effect on US will likely be modest since we're a relatively closed economy. Exports are only 12% of GDP.
• Doesn't makes sense for China or Mexico to put up barriers w US since it would hurt their jobs
• According to Berezin, Trump's tax cuts would offset any new tariffs and/or new tariffs would shift sales to domestic producers which would boost employment. In this way, tariffs would not hurt capital investment, domestic producers may have to boost spending to bring production back to US
• BUT trade agreements are also about politics and protectionism may benefit US at expense of other nations. This could lead to international breakdown.
• Of note: China, South Korea, Vietnam
• S&P 500 profits may not benefit from tax cuts as much as many think since effective tax rate is already 25%, much lower than statutory rate of 35%.
• As for infrastructure spending, likely not that many projects that are "shovel ready"
• Doug Ramsey from Leuthold Group thinks the current market momentum and sentiment could carry things for 4 to 6 more months
• As for interest rates, Fed-funds futures are pricing in two .25% increases for 2017. Probability of being at .75-1% by June is 50+% and 1-1.25% by Dec at 50+%.
• Continues to be heavy liquidation in US Treasuries by foreign monetary authorities
• In the last 12 months, total Treasuries held at NY Fed is down $186B to $2.8T.
• That is consistent with ongoing decline in China's foreign currency reserves which have declined by $1T from their 2014 peak of $3T as Beijing attempts to slow/stop the decline in the value of their currency the Yuan.
• The surge in Treasury yields has not impacted the stock market negatively at this point, but some still have doubts in the ability of heavily indebted economies to absorb higher interest costs
• I've had two friends reach out to me for stock picks in the last three days.

http://investorinthefamily.com/

http://investorinthefamily.com/amazon

Overview

• What will happen to the White House press briefing room in Trump Administration?
• Trump's last press conference was in July
• Favors addressing public directly, through Twitter and YouTube
• Not obligated to hold press conferences
• • FDR preferred radio
  • JFK preferred television
• No recent President has been as openly derisive of press as Trump
• • Has called press: scum, lowlifes, the lowest form of life
• Will corporate America co-opt the press tactics of Trump?
• Wouldn't most CEOs rather avoid "facing the press" in the wake of a bad quarter?
• Why not just Tweet an explanation directly
• 2016 word of the year: "post-truth"
• • World where objective facts matter less in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief
• Apparently, those in corporate PR are fielding questions from clients about how to adapt their communication style for the "age of Trump."
• Change is in the air and big corporations know it
• Pew survey in October:
• • 5% of people have "great deal of trust" in media
  • 33% in military
  • 24% in medical scientists
  • 4% in business leaders
  • 3% in elected officials
• Trump did not invent this scenario, the internet did
• • Push for 24 hours news
  • Growing illiteracy
  • Shortening attention spans
  • Ease of social media
  • Click bait headlines
  • Customizable newsfeeds
  • What you want to know trumps what you ought to know
  • Shrinking civil discourse
  • Shrinking common ground among Americans
• Trump knew the media could not afford to NOT cover him
• Welcome to a post-truth era where facts matter less
• Think for a moment what the world can do with that
• Stocks took a breather last week but rotation toward domestic growth is intact
• Brent crude has surged in price
• Expectation of rising inflation lifted 10-yr treasuries to 17 month high
• Rising inflation must be accompanied by rising growth
• All eyes are on 2017 to see whether that growth comes
• Meanwhile, China has been outperforming the US markets
• An inward looking US is good for China looking for an opportunity for a power grab

For more: http://investorinthefamily.com/