INVESTOR IN THE FAMILY Radio

The dollar has once again been surging and commodities have taken a blow. What's behind the bullish dollar and how might it impact earnings season?

I sit down with Ian Bezek to discus what's going on and what opportunities we could be looking for.

A quick overview:

• We take a look back and learn from the massive dollar move of 2014
• What's behind the latest bullish move in the dollar?
• How has oil managed to remain an outlier in the plunge commodities have taken lately?
• How will the bullish dollar impact 3rd and 4th quarter earnings?
• What opportunities can investors be on the look for in light of a surging dollar?
• What are the mechanics of the dollar index? How does it actually work?

Companies Referenced: AstraZeneca (AZN), Unilever (UL), Diageo (DEO), PowerShares Dollar Index (UUP), Euro Trust (FXE), Canadian Dollar (FXC), Yen Trust (FXY), Gold (GLD), U.S. Oil Fund (USO), Boeing (BA), Airbus (EADSF), Mexico ETF (EWW)

I hope you enjoy the interview.

Bond yields have been rising globally, does this mean the search for yield is over?

With interest rates rising and the Fed hinting at a rate hike in December, the yield landscape is changing.

I sit down with Ian Bezek to discuss what's going on and what we can do about it.

A quick overview:

• Are rising yields here to stay?
• Where is all the global optimism coming from?
• How much control does the Fed really have?
• Are the Fed and the Markets at odds over yields?
• How do the Fed, big banks, bonds, and interest rates all work together?
• What do the problems at Deutsche Bank (DB) tell us about the yield landscape?
• Are we on the brink of a recession?

Companies Referenced: 20+ year Tresuries (TLT), S&P 500 (SPY), 7-10 year Tresuries (IEF), 1-3 year Tresuries (SHY), PIMCO Total Return (BOND), Core Total US Bond (AGG), High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG)

I hope you enjoy the interview.

Overview

• When you have a hammer, everything is a nail
• With Central Bankers, their tool is money and it’s becoming apparent their trillions can’t fix everything; but that doesn’t stop them from trying
• Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested recently that creating a “high pressure economy” could help with the sluggish recovery, most notably the unprecedented number of Americans who not only aren’t working, but aren’t even in the labor force
• In a speech at the Boston Fed, Yellen said that pushing economic growth could counter the lingering effects of the great recession
• The backdrop is the widely anticipated .25% Fed rate hike in Dec of this year
• Yellen offered a defense for going slow with the rate hikes saying it has been in order to keep the pressure on the economy
• This stronger economic growth would motivate businesses to invest more in expansion, especially if they could be more confident in the future
• This could spur more R&D and faster growing start-ups
• If you’re not in the labor market (aka looking for a job), then you’re not officially unemployed
• The participation rate is currently at 62.4% of the adult population, lowest since 1978 (before women were fully integrated in workforce)
• Alan Krueger from Princeton has found that there has been little improvement in the labor force participation rate, even as the jobless rate has declined to 5%
• • In other words: the idea that many labor force dropouts are returning to the labor force is unsupported by the data
• The reasons for this seem unrelated to economics
• Among younger men (21-30) the labor force participation rate fell 7.6% from 89.9 to 82.3% from 2004-2014

http://investorinthefamily.com/

Adam, the "Dividend Sensei" and I sit down to discuss Gilead (GILD). Adam provides a fire hydrant blast of information and expectations regarding Gilead, including some thoughts on the possibility of Gilead being acquired.

If you'd like to jump ahead in the interview to the discussion on Gilead's acquisition prospects, it begins around the 20 minute mark of the interview.

A quick overview:

• Gilead's free cash flow prospects.
• Company's track record, culture, R&D, manufacturing process, patent portfolio, and pipeline.
• Adam's price targets for Gilead.
• Who might purchase Gilead and for how much.
• How he plans to respond if price falls any further.
• Much more...

Companies Mentioned: Pfizer (PFE), JNJ (JNJ), Merck (MRK), Amgen (AMGN), AstraZeneca (AZN), AbbVie (ABBV)

Aurelien Windenberger and I sit down to discuss SolarCity's (SCTY) financial position in light of their announced acquisition by Tesla (TSLA).

Many are saying SolarCity will face significant capital needs in the near future. Is this true? If so, how much will they really need to raise?

A quick overview:

• A deep look at SolarCity's business model.
• How SolarCity makes money and the role that tax credits play.
• Why SolarCity is so hard to understand financially.
• How the tax credit extension has hurt SolarCity.
• Why SolarCity's balance sheet makes no sense.
• Will SolarCity cannabalize cash from Tesla?
• And more...

Richard Berger and I sit down to talk about his thoughts on an upcoming bear market. Richard shares what he's doing right now to make sure he is prepared for it.

This leads to an indepth conversation about Richard's overall investing approach. Out of the 100+ investing interviews I've conducted, Richard's approach continues to be one of my favorites.

A quick overview:

• Why trying to predict a bear market will get you in trouble.
• How he uses Gold (GLD) as his emergency fund.
• How he utilizes cash covered puts in his strategy.
• A detailed look at his investing approach.
• What a market bottom looks like.
• How he determines the fair value of a stock.
• Much more...

Companies Mentioned: SP 500 (SPY), Cogate (CL), Coca-Cola (KO), PG (PG), General Mills (GIS), PPG (PPG), Consolidated Edison (ED), Exxon (XOM)

Leo Nelissen and I sit down to discuss his current outlook on the for the S&P 500 (SPY). This leads us to a conversation about the ISM Index and Durable Goods Report. How can investors best understand and use them to their advantage?

A quick overview:

• Why Leo doesn't see much near-term potential for the S&P.
• What is the ISM Index and how best should investors use it?
• How to use the ISM to know when to be optimistic or pessimistic on the markets.
• Where to find relevant info regarding ISM.
• How Durable Goods Report relates to ISM.
• How investors can best understand and use teh Durable Goods Report.

Companies Mentioned: Cummins (CMI), AK Steel (AKS)

Overview

• Boomers staying in the workforce even as labor-force participation rate is at lows not seen since the 1970’s
• Many working out of necessity:
• • Still supporting adult children
  • No retirement nest egg
• Public sector employees are immune to this problem, right?
• • The payoff of “generous, assured pensions” may not be so certain
  • Moody’s says that state pension plans were short by around $1.25T at the end of 2015, which amounts to around 119% of state revenue
  • The gap is expected to grow in coming years as plans’ returns have fallen far below their 7.5% annual target (earning 0.52% instead in 2016 despite rallies in stocks and bonds)
  • Moody’s calculates the poor performance of pension plans will grow the shortfall to $1.75T in 2017.
  • The states with biggest gaps are Illinois and New Jersey
  • Some assert that policy makers would not allow for a potential recession as a result of a state and local pension funding crisis. As a result, the federal government would swoop in and to backstop the pensions with increased expenditure monetized by the Fed
  • Not all share that view, it’s likely that harsh decisions will be made in terms of adding to deficient pension plans and reducing their assumed returns from the apparently out of reach 7.5%

http://investorinthefamily.com/

Episode 100. I’m thankful to reach this milestone and thankful to each and everyone of you for helping to make this show possible. I’m genuinely humbled by your support and faithfulness.

In honor of episode 100, I am sharing a recording I did with David Stein from “money for the rest of us.” The show was originally recorded live from the TradeKing podcasting station. We were in San Diego a few weeks ago at a financial conference called “FinCon.”

While there we were given the opportunity to record a show together. We decided to discuss some of our biggest investing lessons learned in 2016.

I hope you enjoy it as much as I did.

I sit down with John Miley, Associate Editor with The Kiplinger Letter with a special focus on technology.

This is the final of three interviews with John. Each interview lasts around 20 minutes and focus on 5G Technology, Augmented and Virtual Reality, and Drones and Robots respectively.

For each podcast, John shares details about where each technology stands, where it appears to be heading, what companies will be most impacted, and what it will mean for the economy and consumers.

A quick overview of our third interview:

• How the FAA has fallen behind regarding regulation.
• The impact of recent regulations released in August of this year.
• Big push to allow drones to: 1) fly over people 2) fly without line of sight 3) fly at night.
• Where we are in the evolution of the drone industry.
• How big the industry is expected to be in 2025 (and number of jobs will create).
• The huge impact drones will have on delivery services.
• How privacy rules will impact drones.
• The wide array of industries and services that will utilize drones.
• The new roles that robots will play in manufacturing.
• Robots to mow your lawn?
• Much, much more on what the roll out of both drones and robots will look like and who it will impact.

Companies mentioned: Amazon (AMZN), FedEx (FDX), UPS (UPS), Verizon (VZ), Ford (F), GM (GM), Toyota (TM), Honda (HMC), Tesla (TSLA) and more.

I hope you enjoy this final of three interviews with John Miley from The Kiplinger Letter.