INVESTOR IN THE FAMILY Radio

I sit down with John Miley, Associate Editor with The Kiplinger Letter with a special focus on technology.

This is the second of three interviews with John. Each interview lasts around 20 minutes and focus on 5G Technology, Augmented and Virtual Reality, and Drones and Robots respectively.

For each podcast, John shares details about where each technology stands, where it appears to be heading, what companies will be most impacted, and what it will mean for the economy and consumers.

A quick overview of our second interview:

• Did Oculus bungle their VR headset release?
• Is AR/VR the natural evolution of smartphone technology?
• Why it matters that Google's new smartphone was built for their VR platform.
• How big and untapped of a market is AR/VR?
• Examples of how VR is already being used in education.
• How AR/VR will forever change the consumer shopping experience.
• What AR/VR means for experiencing "live" events.
• The role of Google Glass.
• The impact on chip and sensor makers.
• When to expect Apple to release a headset.
• The return of the arcade.
• How VR will impact PC makers.
• When to expect AR/VR to become mainstream.
• The crucial role Apple must play in wide scale AR/VR adoption in the U.S.
• And much more.

Companies mentioned: Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Intel (INTC), Texas Instruments (TXN), Samsung, Sony (SNE), HTC, Lenovo, AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), Comcast (CMCSA)

I hope you enjoy this second of three interviews with John Miley from The Kiplinger Letter.

I sit down with John Miley, Associate Editor with The Kiplinger Letter with a special focus on tech.

This is the first of three interviews with John. Each interview lasts around 20 minutes and focus on 5G Technology, Augmented and Virtual Reality, and Drones and Robots respectively.

For each podcast, John shares details about where each technology stands, where it appears to be heading, what companies will be most impacted, and what it will mean for the economy and consumers.

A quick overview of our first interview:

• A history of the progression from 2G to 5G
• What 5G is expected to "look like" (ex: speeds, latency, reliability, connectivity)
• What infrastructure will be required and how long the roll out may take
• FCC Chaiman calls 5G a "revolution" in communication
• How much AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint have been investing in 5G development
• What the biggest fears are for AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, and Sprint regarding 5G
• Which underlying wireless tech companies are likely to benefit most from 5G
• What 5G will mean for smartphones
• And plenty more!

Companies mentioned: AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), T-Mobile (TMUS), Sprint (S), Ericsson (ERIC), Huawei, Samsung, Cisco (CSCO), Qualcomm (QCOM), Juniper (JNPR), Intel (INTC), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Facebook (FB)

I hope you enjoy this first of three interviews with John Miley from The Kiplinger Letter.

I hope you enjoy my overview of Randall Forsyth’s Up & Down Wall Street column from this week’s Barron’s magazine.

In it, I discuss what some are calling “peak liquidity” and a turning point in Central Bank crisis policies.

Overview

• Taper tantrum 2.0 - the subtle suggestions from central bankers that, after 8 years, they may begin to move away from crisis policies
• • Ultralow interest rates
  • Massive securities purchases with the click of button
  • Medieval alchemists would have been jealous
• Policies have been less than impressive, some academics say it’s because they haven’t been administered in strong enough doses
• Former Treasury Sec Lawrence Summers recently endorsed the Fed purchasing corporate debt and equity securities
• • Yellen has said this would not be out of the question in future crises
• Backlash against these policies has been brewing from outside the academic and mainstream economist fold
• • Ex: British Prime Minister Theresa May
  • Ex: Donald Trump
  • Central Bank leaders no longer seem like super heros
• CBs seem to be considering a fundamental shift in policies
• • BOJ will begin targeting yield curve of Japanese gov bond mkt, aiming for 0% on the benchmark 10-year JGB. This is a shift from targeting a quantity of bond purchases to targeting a price. In theory, this could mean a reduction in purchases assuming targets are met.
  • ECB is considering a gradual reduction in securities purchases
• Jeffrey Gundlach commented on the growing belief that interest rates will “never” rise by saying that when it’s said that something can “never” happen, it’s about to happen, he argued. He went on to say that zero or neg interest rates are doing more harm than good, the decline of Deutsche Bank (DB) is an example. You can’t help the economy by bankrupting the banks.
• • For these reasons and more, he believes the low in bond yields have already been seen (10-year treasury fells to 1.36% post-Brexit).
• Major trend changes appear to be at hand.

http://investorinthefamily.com/

Bret Jensen is one of my favorite resources when it comes to biotech investing.

We sat down a few days ago to discuss some of his favorite small cap biotech companies that have near term (mostly 4Q) catalysts.

A quick preview:

• What Bret considers to be an attractive risk/reward scenario in biotech
• Why upcoming catalyts are the name of the game regarding small cap biotech
• The 5 companies Bret sees positive catalysts for in the 4th quarter
• How Bret would work companies like this into a portfolio (ex: position-sizing, etc)

Companies mentioned: Pfizer (PFE), AstraZeneca (AZN), Allergan (AGN), Egalet (EGLT), Synergy (SGYP), Portola (PTLA), Dynavax (DVAX), Cempra (CEMP)

I hope you enjoy the interview.

Dirk Leach has been a consistent, avid, and successful investor for more than 30 years. His style is conservative and he primarily focuses on income oriented equities, bonds, preferred stocks and mutual funds.

In this interview, we have a follow-up conversation to an article Dirk wrote recently by the same title.

I appreciated his article and was glad for the chance to discuss it more and share that with you here.

A quick preview:

• 50% of people 18-29 have retirement savings of $0.
• 23% of people 45-59 have retirement savings of $0.
• Retirement will look very different in the future as most people will be self-funded.
• Social security alone is not enough.
• Simple steps investors can make today.
• Some key funds that can be strong, long-term investments.
• Low-risk, high-return investment that can secure your retirement.

Companies and funds mentioned: S&P 500 (SPY), Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund Inv (NYSE: VDIGX), Vanguard Health Care Fund Inv (NYSE: VGHCX), Vanguard Energy Fund Inv (NYSE: VGENX), Vanguard Windsor II Fund Inv (NYSE: VWNFX), Vanguard Global Equity Fund Inv (NYSE: VHGEX)

I hope you enjoy the interview.

Adam Aloisi joins me to discuss Closed End Funds (CEFs). What are they, how do they work and what opportunity (or threat) do they presently offer?

A quick preview:

• Is there value left in CEFs right now?
• The complexity and challenge of CEFs
• Why a CEF yield may not be what it seems
• How leverage and options are used by CEFs and why it's important for investors to understand
• How to find undervalued CEFs

I hope you enjoy the interview.

Adam Aloisi and I sit down to discuss dividend stocks. Specifically, we talk about how risky dividends are at today's valuations.

A brief overview:

• Critics say there is a bubble in dividends stocks
• How ZIRP has changed the game regarding valuation
• What is the blueprint for decision making?
• The disparity between prices and earnings
• What it looks like to be a contrarian in this environment
• Some recent picks

I hope you enjoy the interview.

Overview

• Deutsche Bank equity and debt securities plunged on after reports that “hedge funds had withdrawn money held as collateral at the bank for their derivatives transactions and other positions.”
• This sounded very Lehman like to investors
• Deutsche’s Chief, John Cryan has said that DB has strong fundamentals and the reports of hedge funds had aroused unjustified concerns.
• WSJ reported that some hedge funds who had pulled money also handsomely profited from by shorting DB.
• DB was not and is not going to fail. The DOJ $14B penalty isn’t realistic either
• The big worry is DB’s $60T derivatives book (the gross exposure of the bank’s contracts)
• “DB’s net exposures are sufficiently large to blow up the financial system.”
• All this could impact U.S. homeowners via interest rates
• “Dollar Funding Stress is Back”
• • http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/funding-currency.asp
  • http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currencycarrytrade.asp
  • http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/carry-trade.asp-0
  • The funding costs (rates) for European banks increased due to DB headlines
  • This increased demand for Dollars at low rates
  • U.S. money-fund reforms set for mid-October have already pushed up short-term rates, most notably LIBOR
  • LIBOR is basis for many U.S. loans, including mortgages
• If rising LIBOR impacts housing, could put more stress on Fed to not raise rates
• Bloomberg says 59% chance of raise in Dec, but odds are against chances of rate increase in 2017

http://investorinthefamily.com/

Overview

• Debate
• • Lots of focus on Trump/Clinton debate
  • Will comments be made that will impact market? (Ex: Clinton and EpiPen)
  • Both candidates likely will put pressure on drug pricing
  • Candidate diverge on healthcare, energy, and taxes
  • Race is essentially tied and first debate will not likely have a major impact
  • Both opposed to TPP
• Central Banks
• • Overshadowed by election
  • Fed has strongly implied december rate hike
  • • Three dissenting members last week
  • Fed lowered target rate projections (as per usual)
  • BOJ left rates unchanged and will target rates at 0% as opposed to negative
  • This all boosted stocks last week, but didn’t really last

http://investorinthefamily.com/

Doug Eberhardt is the some of a commodities trader and has been working with gold and silver for years. Doug was kind enough to sit down with me and let me pick his brain for a few minutes.

A few highlights:

• Why he used to bad mouth gold.
• How we can trace the purchasing power of gold back for 1000s of years.
• The two failed attempts by the U.S. to print money.
• Why the financial media doesn't want you to buy gold and silver.
• What it means to be an intelligent gold bug.
• Why hyperinflation is not around the corner.
• Why the dollar is not collapsing.
• Why Doug is currently dollar bullish.
• His expectations for a coming deflationary contraction.
• What to expect from the metals following this contraction.

http://investorinthefamily.com/