U.S. and Israeli strikes under Operation Epic Fury have inflicted severe economic damage on the Iranian regime — damage that now shapes the landscape of ongoing ceasefire negotiations. FDD's Center on Economic and Financial Power has produced the first systematic, model-based estimate of Iran's economic losses, projecting that Tehran has lost roughly $144 billion, or approximately 40 percent of its pre-war GDP, in under two months. The losses are not evenly distributed: some sectors have been hit harder than others, and critically, much of what has been destroyed — including Iran's F-14 fleet, its nuclear scientific personnel, and its advanced centrifuge supply chains — cannot be replaced under continued sanctions. These are not recoverable line items; they represent permanent degradation of Iran's strategic and industrial capacity.

The economic picture was already dire before the war began. Iran's economy was in deep recession, its population bearing the cost of decades of mismanagement and sanctions pressure. The question now is how much more the clerical regime can absorb — and whether conventional assumptions about Iran's leverage, including its ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, hold up under scrutiny. FDD's analysis suggests that leverage may be more of a weakness than a weapon.

To walk journalists through their economic model and discuss the implications for nuclear negotiations, FDD hosts three experts from its Center on Economic and Financial Power: Elaine Dezenski, Senior Director and head of CEFP, Miad Maleki, Senior Fellow specializing in economic sanctions, and Daniel Swift, CEFP Senior Research Analyst. The discussion is moderated by Joe Dougherty, FDD's Senior Director of Communications.

For more, check out: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2026/04/23/irans-economic-damage-from-operation-epic-fury/