The bond market has done what the media, the courts, and Congress couldn't — slow Trump down. Kobi and Banker Bill break down why 5% on the 30-year treasury is the magic number, what the Iran conflict means for gas prices, and whether new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will listen to Wall Street or the White House. Plus: Trump's 60 trades a day, the DoorDash pump-and-dump, and why Howard Lutnick apparently got a very good return on his $5 million.

One of my firmest held believes is that TSA Pre-Check is a scam perpetrated by Big Hudson News to sell more overpriced health snacks. If you think I feel validated by Trump’s disastrous economic performance, it’s nothing compared to the pure joy I felt when they announced you could keep your shoes on in regular security. I have an album in my phone of every time the normal TSA line was shorter than the precheck line. The only politician who has ever agreed with this take is Utah Senator Orin Hatch.

So does that frugality extend to Spirit Airlines? Absolutely not. Our FULL episode is out now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Substack.

Is It Bad For The Economy Super Fans,

We’re very sorry for the upload error this morning. Some of you could have used an Elizabeth Warren trigger warning, I’m sure. Our FULL episode is out now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Substack.

Kevin Warsh sat before the Senate Banking Committee for his Fed Chair confirmation hearing — and we watched the whole thing. Democratic strategist Kobi Tirey and independent banker "Banker Bill" break down why Warsh refused to say Biden won in 2020, what his incomplete financial disclosures actually mean, his connections to the Epstein social circle, his radical plan to redefine how the Fed measures inflation, why eliminating the dot plot is dangerous, and whether his AI + balance sheet theory of low inflation is credible or cover for doing Trump's bidding. Is Kobi a partisan hack — or does he have a point? Banker Bill weighs in.Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro, Kevin Warsh Critique: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9cUyNGDFqw

Topics: Kevin Warsh confirmation, Fed Chair nominee, Federal Reserve independence, dot plot, inflation measurement, PCE, CPI, tariffs and inflation, Lisa Cook, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Trump Fed, Tillis, Polymarket, financial disclosure.

Is Trump's economy actually working — or is the data telling a different story? In this episode of Is It Bad For The Economy?, Democratic Strategist Kobi Tirey and anonymous Wall Street insider Banker Bill dig into the latest economic data: CPI inflation stubbornly range-bound at 2.6–3.3%, mortgage rates spiking back toward 6.4%, a protein basket that's as mixed as ever, and a labor force participation rate at its lowest since 1977. They cover tariff risk, demand destruction, the federal deficit, gold repatriation, Iran sanctions, Trump's stablecoin controversy, and whether a recession is already baked in. If you want the charts, the context, and the unfiltered take — this is it.

🎙️ Hosted by Kobi Tirey | Featuring Banker Bill

📅 Recorded April 14th, 2025

Banker Bill wanted someone to answer for Mayor Mamdani's paradoxical housing policies, but he got more than he bargained for with our guest, Affordable NYC Housing developer Teghvir Sethi. Democratic strategist Kobi Tirey just enjoyed his popcorn. Econ 101? Supply & Demand? That's kids' stuff. This is New York: Capital Rules Everything Around Me.

Our New York housing episode is getting rescheduled to the next episode, but that gives us the perfect opportunity to catch up on Iran and ask the big questions: 1) If the conflict ended today, how long would it take for the financial consequences to work their way through the economy?

2) What’s the worst-case scenario if the conflict continues to escalate?

3) What would Kobi look like if he dressed as the laser background from those 80s yearbook photos? Not like, a person in the 80s who chose to have a portrait photo taken on that generic laser background, but as the actual laser background itself.

Banker Bill apologizes for giving Trump a compliment, Kobi apologizes for thinking the Powell interior design witch hunt would go anywhere, and we consider what Hallmark Christmas movies can teach us about America’s economic hegemony on our latest episode, out now, as always, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Substack.

Notes:

Kevin Warsh’s Epstein Files Mention: https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2010/EFTA01792909.pdf

Yale Budget Lab Director Martha Gimbel on how our economy is like a Hallmark movie boyfriend:

Ever since Trump was elected, I’ve gotten whiplash from how Banker Bill’s outlook on the economy, seemingly, flails from optimistic to apoplectic. I say seemingly because he’ll tell you this is a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde situation — they’re both true.In his State of the Union speech, Trump was so defensive that he wasn’t just unbelievable, he was boring. So, of course, now, Banker Bill feels that it’s his patriotic duty to sell the American economy to you better than Trump ever could. Our latest episode is out now, as always, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Substack.

Meanwhile, Democratic Strategist Kobi Tirey goes over what voters really thought of the State of the Union, and how Warner Bros.’ woke business model just might be Paramount’s undoing. LINKS:Navigator State of the Union Dial Tests -> https://navigatorresearch.org/state-of-the-union-special-report-arizona-dial-group/Manufacturers’ Total Inventories: Consumer Durable Goods -> https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UCDGTI

Jet fuel -> https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WJFUELUSGULF#

Citrini ->

Citadel -> https://www.citadelsecurities.com/news-and-insights/2026-global-intelligence-crisis/

Bonus Episode: Trump Declared War On Renewable Energy, and Renewable Energy Is Winning.

Democratic Strategist Kobi Tirey tries to give Donald Trump a little credit on unemployment and inflation for once, but Banker Bill isn't buying it. The dollar's weak, and a weak dollar means a weak America. At least crypto, gold, and China aren't looking any stronger. Kobi and Bill also ask, with DOJ resignations piling up, especially in the antitrust division, is this the golden age of white collar crime?