As technology rapidly improves and provides people with a never-ending list of ways to stay connected, those responsible for urban planning are finding new ways to integrate connectedness with essential city services. Cities like Orlando are jumping into the smart city movement with hopes to build a data-driven infrastructure that will support safer, cleaner and more efficient travel and an improved quality of life for the community. However, some are concerned the introduction of smart cities could infringe on citizens' safety, security and privacy. So, is any of this really possible? And is your average resident interested in living in a smart city?

 

Featured Guests:

Mike Hess - Smart City Project Director, City of Orlando

Craig Ustler - Owner and President, Ustler Development, Inc.

Episode Transcription:

 

Paul Jarley:                         When I worked at the University of Kentucky, I swore I would vote for any politician who could synchronize the stop lights on Harrisburg Road and cut my travel time to and from work. Smart city initiatives promise to make city life more efficient. But are people really willing to give up their privacy on the promise that Big Brother can cut down on their commute time or save them money on their energy bill? And honestly, if smart cities require smart politicians, I'm skeptical.

Paul Jarley:                         This show is all about separating hype from fundamental change. I'm Paul Jarley, Dean of the College of Business here at UCF. I've got lots of questions. To get answers, I'm talking to people with interesting insights into the future of business. Have you ever wondered, is this really a thing? On to our show.

Paul Jarley:                         So about a year ago I was half asleep in a meeting of deans when somebody said the term smart cities and I hadn't heard that before, so I wrote it down and I will have to tell you, my initial thought was, "Dang, those people in Silicon Valley have the best marketers in the world." I mean, who could be against smart cities?

Paul Jarley:                         So I wanted to do some learning about that and what that really means and whether the marketing is far ahead of the reality or not and what it's likely to do to my world and my students' world going forward. So a couple of people have graciously agreed to join me today who have some opinions on it and I'm going to probe their opinions a little bit.

Paul Jarley:                         So, next to me is Craig Ustler. Craig leading the master development team for the Creative Village here in downtown Orlando. He is also co-developing several vertical projects at Creative Village, including a $105 million student housing project that'd better be ready by August 2019, or we will have a lot of homeless students downtown.

Paul Jarley:                         We're also joined by Mike Hess. Mike is the smart city director for the city of Orlando. He's a Leed fellow and mechanical engineer. He was recently brought on board by the city of Orlando to lead off their smart city efforts. He's worked as the VP of smart and sustainable buildings for Panasonic Smart City team. And he has worked on several smart city projects across the US.

Paul Jarley:                         So, let's start at the beginning. What the heck is a smart city? Craig, you want to?

Craig Ustler:                       There's a couple answers. So one is sort of consistent with your experience. It's become a buzzword that is somewhat self-invented through some marketing folks and real estate folks. And it means in theory, this idea that you're going to use data driven or the Internet of Things and whatnot to connect everything and measure it and analyze it and make things more efficient.

Craig Ustler:                       I sort of choose to turn the term and I say cities are smart and suburbs are dumb. I sort of feel like the city by definition is smart, city and urban development is smart, and suburban development is inefficient and dumb. So in my view, it's more of an urban planning question about how you arrange things to be smarter and more efficient, and then you use technology in what is I feel like a better arrangement of how you build a city.

Craig Ustler:                       And that sort of, to me, what a smart city is. It's sort of, you start with city building a city design and then you overlay technology on top of that to make a really great place. Said a different way, you could build the smartest city in the world, but if it's in a place nobody wants to live or it's poorly designed or has a bunch of other attributes that don't make it attractive, it's really not ultimately gonna matter how smart it is. Right?

Craig Ustler:                       And I think technology and what Mike's sort of background brings is part of being smart. So I think being able to use technology and analytics and data driven intelligence, I think that's one form of being smart. I have a different term that I call urban IQ. But the idea of a city's IQ is not just its sort of technology footprint and how smart it is, but there's an IQ about being more cultured and being more diverse. It adds value to society.

Craig Ustler:                       So, so I tend to think about being a smart city is kind of like a technical degree. It's like getting a master's in engineering and being smart. Being a truly great city with a high IQ is a liberal arts degree. And it's like being good at a bunch of things. So, I think you gotta be both to truly be a smart city. That's my definition of it. That's not the definition you were referring to, but that's how I think of it.

Paul Jarley:                         Mike?

Mike Hess:                         Yeah, so I would certainly agree with that. In my previous life, I worked for a technology company and I think one of the things we learned very early on in our, you know, role in the smart city space is smart city is not all about the technology. In fact, technology should really be the last part of the discussion.

Mike Hess:                         There's plenty of technology out there already. Technology is already changing. It's always changing. And so that really shouldn't be your first step because a lot of times if you just start throwing shiny objects and technology to try to solve a problem, it may not actually work. We saw a lot of technology that was out there to try to solve problems that didn't necessarily have to exist. So really to me, smart city has to start with a good planning processes, so stakeholder alignment, getting people to sort of think outside their silos, both within city, city working with developers, but getting people to sort of think differently and think together was really the first piece to smart city.

Mike Hess:                         And also really starting to think about what are the new business models or different ways we can work together once we get out of our silos to figure out how to solve our city's issues. And that may be a technology solution; it may not be.

Mike Hess:                         So, I agree with you Craig, 100%. And really then, technology comes in at the end to kind of fill the gaps. And you know, I would also encourage everyone to Google the definition of smart city. I mean, it's sort of all over the place and most of them that you see are very technology-focused. But I would encourage you-

Craig Ustler:                       Or self-declared. Right?

Paul Jarley:                         So, whenever I'm trying to think through whether something is a thing or not. The first question I always ask is what problem are we solving here? So what is the promise of a smart city? What is it looking to solve?

Mike Hess:                         And so that's an interesting question because that answer is going to depend on where you are. So really, the first part of any smart city process should be around planning and having the community decide what do we want to solve under this sort of smart city.

Craig Ustler:                       Like, traffic on I-4?

Mike Hess:                         Yeah. So, and I can tell you this is something that the city of Orlando is about to really dive into is a smart city master planning process. We're literally going to be a getting started on some of this next week. And really that process is all about community engagement. Residents, developers, all the stakeholders in the community, to come together and figure out what does smart city mean to us in Orlando? What do we want to solve?

Mike Hess:                         And once you get to that point, I mean, there are a million things smart city can solve and I can kind of walk you through from an Orlando perspective, when we do this planning process, we've already started to sort of figure out what some of our major categories are that we want to work within in our planning process.

Paul Jarley:                         Give us a sense of what's the top three things, like on your list.

Mike Hess:                         Yeah, so I would say communications infrastructure is a big one. How do we solve that digital divide? How do we make sure everyone is connected and has access to technology?

Paul Jarley:                         Because increasing inequality could be an outcome here, right?

Mike Hess:                         Absolutely. I mean, another example on sort of the equity side from an energy perspective, a lot of my past work has been around energy equity and resiliency, so that everyone has clean power. Everyone has access to resilient power. So, that's another thing you can potentially look at in the smart city space.

Paul Jarley:                         Two more on your list.

Mike Hess:                         Okay. I was going to say I could keep going.

Paul Jarley:                         Go ahead.

...

Some people are born with leadership skills, but that doesn't necessarily mean others can't learn. Dr. James T. Brown packs an impressive 16 years of increasingly responsible leadership positions at NASA and later worked as a consultant and trainer in leadership, project management and decision making before becoming a faculty member at the UCF College of Business. Dr. Brown is simply an expert in leadership training and project management. But does teaching someone what makes a leader mean they can become a leader themselves?

 

Featured Guests:

James T. Brown - Lecturer, Integrated Business, UCF College of Business

Episode Transcription:

 

Paul Jarley:                         It's not uncommon to hear people say, "You can't teach leadership. Leaders are born, not made." It's a fair argument. Quality of leadership isn't always something that can be measured. And you just can't expect to become a leader by reading stuff out of a book. After all, you don't become a chef by studying a cookbook. You have to cook. But that doesn't mean theory from the classroom can't be put into practice.

Paul Jarley:                         This show is all about separating hype from fundamental change. I'm Paul Jarley, Dean of the College of Business, here at UCF. I've got lots of questions. To get answers, I'm talking to people with interesting insights into the future of business. Have you ever wondered, "Is this really a thing?" On to our show.

Paul Jarley:                         This episode features one out our Integrated Business faculty. Dr. James T. Brown, is an engineer at heart. He spent more than 15 years at NASA. He later used this experience to offer consulting and training services on leadership, project management, and decision making, to companies both small and large. Every month, we pick one of our faculty members to address a crowd of local business partners and alumni at an event we call The Dean's Speaker Series. This time, we invited Dr. Brown to talk about what makes a good leader, some of the worst pitfalls he's ever seen, and how to avoid some of these missteps. Naturally, we pulled out the best parts, and turned it into a podcast. I hope you enjoy.

James T. Brown:               Project management is an art. That is why everybody can't do it. I don't care how much process you have, doesn't make a difference. Project management is an art. Just like art, it has principles. Every artist knows what happens when you mix red and yellow. `The principles are there, but the actual application of it is an art. It's very difficult.

James T. Brown:               There's a little girl. You may have heard of her before. She shows up at the three bears' house. And she says, "Too hot. Too cold. Too hard. Too soft." What is she looking for?

Crowd:                                 [crosstalk 00:02:06]

James T. Brown:               Just right. This is what we're looking for with process. Just right. Can you give me the just right amount of process? And good process is born out of leadership. You get the leadership right, the process will be right. You can't take process and be successful in the absence of leadership.

James T. Brown:               The reason I wrote a book on program management and not project management is this. Most project failure isn't caused by the project manager. It's caused by the people above them. The people above them are the ones that put the project managers in a position that makes it difficult for them to be successful. So a lot of what I talked about today with leadership, it applies to project managers, but it also applies to those people that are above them.

James T. Brown:               So this is our, our breakfast menu today. The one that's underlined there, establish accountability and clear direction. That's what I'm going to talk about first. So establish accountability and clear direction. I was in the company headquarters. And when I walked through the door I was conducting training for a week. First morning in, huge building. And it was interesting because, they had a special door for the executives. And that door was roped off with a velvet rope, like if you ever went to a nightclub. I nobody here probably goes nightclub, but if you ever went to a nightclub, sometimes they have a velvet rope that that separates things. So they had this velvet rope separated them, and the executives would come in on their side of the velvet rope, get the Wall Street Journal, get on their private elevator, go to the top floor where they had a private dining room. Do you think that they had a feel for what really goes on at the company?

James T. Brown:               If you can't even ride the elevator with the regular workers, odds are you don't have a feel. They are what I call PowerPoint leaders. They don't actually know how work is accomplished at the working level, because everybody brings them a presentation. And then when the company gets in trouble, do you know what they do? They go and hire consultants. These leaders are consultants' dreams. They hire consultants. You know what the consultants do? They go talk to the people at the working level, where they find a problem, and the answer, they put it in a PowerPoint package and take it back up to the people on their private elevator.

James T. Brown:               It's a real simple process, drives a lot of capitalism in America. And this is what frustrates me. My wife, she loves to watch this program called, which is it... Undercover Boss. Undercover Boss, and I'm like, I can't even watch it because it makes me so angry. That that you are a leader and this is the first time you've actually seen how things work in your company. All right, so this whole leading with a feel. That means you really have a feel. This picture I put up here with [inaudible 00:05:14], because that's how you're leading, if you don't have a feel. You have to have a feel, for what is going on.

James T. Brown:               There's a launch director, that launched more space shuttles than anybody, and he's one of the first people I interviewed for my book. When I was conducting research. And he was famous. He was famous, for getting the shuttle off the ground, and he was famous for a lot of things. But he always said this. That, "I will go out and see what's going on third shift. I will go to different locations throughout the space center. I will go different to different locations throughout the country and talk to people at the working level." And then he said this. "There has never been a week, when I went out and talk to people at the working level, that that wasn't the most valuable part of my week." The most valuable part.

James T. Brown:               So here's my tip for you. I don't care if you have 3,000 people working for you, or 50. You can use a random number generator in Excel, you put all the people in there. And every day, somebody's name is going to pop up at the top, at random. You go talk to them. You don't have to necessarily even ask them about their work. You can just go and talk to them. Because when you talk to people, you learned a lot. Even if you're not talking about work. You see how frazzled they are, how un-frazzled they are, or you see a lot of things and then you will have feel.

James T. Brown:               The next thing I'm going to talk about, slow it down. Some people think the leader's role is to expedite, expedite, expedite. My opinion is, the leader's role is really to slow it down. Everybody's trying to get it done. That same leader I was talking about, famous for getting the show off the ground. The launch team would say this. He was so famous for doing it. If it was a cloudy day. This is what they would say, "Don't worry. [inaudible 00:07:04] will find a hole in the clouds." He was famous for managing the cut, the countdown clock. Because in Florida, you know we got clouds, a windows sun, clouds. Cloudy day, window of sun, off goes the space shuttle. Done.

James T. Brown:               When I asked him about that. This was his response. He says, "People think my role as launch director is to get the show off the ground. Since my role is launch director, my role as the leader, is to stop the launch. Everybody has launch fever. Everybody's trying to find a way to make it work. I have to make sure that is really ready to go." And he said, "Even the astronauts will tell me. They've been on their back for four hours. They've been training for this mission for a year. They've been wanting to go to space their entire life. When you asked us if we're go, we're always going to say go. We depend on you stop." And so when you're the high level leader, you have to be that person to make sure insanity doesn't take place.

James T. Brown:               But if you're always pushing, pushing, pushing. Then you end up creating insanity. When you cross 90% capacity, you end up getting less work done over the course of a year. If you cross 90% capacity, you get less work done over the course of a year. Because what you've done now is, you created a whole lot of waiting time and interference in the system. In other words, your work environment's characterized by a lot of firefighting. Starting and stopping, starting and stopping, starting and stopping. Oh, we're working on this? Now, oh wait, this happened over here, we got a vector over here. That's how your work environment's characterize. And this is true for any system.

James T. Brown:               If you don't believe it, I'll say it this way. Have you ever been on I-4 at a certain time of day? Once that interstate gets certain, I mean, gets a number of cars on it. Then it's going to be starting and stop. And if somebody slams on their brakes, it doesn't even have to be an accident, they can create a two mile backup. Just by slamming on the brakes. And sometimes that happens in the work environment....

Starting a business with no money or funding could be easier than you think. Jesse Wolfe, founder and CEO of O'Dang Hummus, got his start at UCF with some big ideas and little capital. Several years later, he's CEO of a multi-million dollar business and has turned the salad dressing industry on its head. But one success story does not mean everyone could do it...

 

Featured Guests:

Jesse Wolfe - Founder / President, O'Dang Hummus

Cameron Ford - Director, UCF Center for Entrepreneurial Leadership

Michael Pape - Dr. Phillips Entrepreneur in Residence; Lecturer, Management

Donna Mackenzie - Executive Director, StarterStudio

Carol Ann Dykes Logue - Site Manager, UCF Business Incubator

Episode Transcription:

 

Voice:                                "If you build it, he will come."

Terence Mann:                "He will come, Ray. He will most definitely come."

Paul Jarley:                       That's my favorite line from Field of Dreams. But, what if you can't build it?

Jesse Wolfe:                     It came out to a $700,000, almost a million dollar, order. And they needed them to be about $10 a cart and I could not figure out how to get them below $25 a cart.

Paul Jarley:                       Or, what if they don't come?

Cameron Ford:                The Google Glass, people started using it out in public and stuff like that, and quickly were scorned as being what were described as Glass-holes. My understanding is they pulled from the market.

Paul Jarley:                       Lean start up offers a different approach, but is it really a thing? Or, is it just academics hyping the scientific method?

Paul Jarley:                       This show is all about separating hype from fundamental change. I'm Paul Jarley, Dean of the College of Business here at UCF. I've got lots of questions. To get answers, I'm talking to people with interesting insights into the future of business. Have you ever wondered, is this really a thing? Onto our show.

Paul Jarley:                       This is how significant businesses started back in the day.

Michael Pape:                 What we were, I'll just say, required to do as an entrepreneur with VCs with trying to get, maybe, economic development funds.

Paul Jarley:                       Yup.

Michael Pape:                 And this was in the biotech space.

Paul Jarley:                       That's Dr. Michael Pape, Professor of Practice here in the College of Business, and Director of our UpStarts program.

Michael Pape:                 So it was a tech-oriented business that I've been involved in, was write the business plan, and I have sat down, myself and with my teams, of writing the 40 to 60 page business plan. The fat startup, if I may define it that way, had you do that. Venture capitalists would request it, and they would want to make sure that you saw the plan from beginning to end.

Paul Jarley:                       Then a funny thing happened starting in the early 1990s. Universities started to develop entrepreneurship programs. They did this partly to serve their economic development missions, partly because donors loved to give money to this cause and partly because more and more students became interested in entrepreneurship as a career path.

Paul Jarley:                       In the early 1990s, ideals spun out of Stanford, with an emphasis on design thinking. Another decade passed and Berkeley started developing what has come to be known as lean start up. It had a coming out party in 2011, with the publication of Eric Riles book by the same name. But, are universities and business schools really the place to start businesses?

Paul Jarley:                       I had my doubts. We excel at getting rule followers great jobs in companies who are looking for functional talent. We really aren't geared up to help people who want to color outside the lines, pursue their crazy dreams, even when people say they're wrong. That said, a quarter of my students say they want to start a business, and students seem to love the lean startup methodology. Cameron Ford, Director of our Center for Entrepreneurial Leadership, has a pretty obvious reason why.

Cameron Ford:                Our students love the lean approach because, of course, they don't have any resources. So-

Paul Jarley:                       Simply put, they're broke. But what exactly is lean startup, and what are its challenges?

Jesse Wolfe:                     That's how I started my business.

Paul Jarley:                       We're going to take you on a journey with this guy.

Jesse Wolfe:                     Lean startup, bootstrapping 101. That's where great businesses, in my opinion, come from because people that start off with too much funding usually have an issue staying on course. When your back's against the wall is when I feel you think the fastest, the brightest, the quickest and you become the most resourceful. When you have too much money you tend to get lackadaisical in my opinion.

Paul Jarley:                       That, my friends, is Jesse Wolfe, CEO and founder of O'Dang Hummus, and quite frankly a soundbite machine.

Jesse Wolfe:                     We run a very successful, thriving business and people are like, “Oh where's the Lamborghini?”. I'm like, “Someone else's hands because I'm dumping all my money back into the business”.

Paul Jarley:                       Now let's follow Jesse's startup story. A startup isn't the same as a company. Back to Cameron Ford.

Cameron Ford:                It's not a miniature version of a company, it's actually a vehicle, for remaining humble, viewing all of your ideas as hypotheses and going out and collecting data to validate or invalidate these things and move forward-

Paul Jarley:                       It's a product development process more than a-

Cameron Ford:                I would say it's more of an uncertainty reduction process. Because it's not just about the product, it's also about relationships. So it's kinda three elements to building a company. You gotta have conceptual kinda stuff put together, you've gotta have social stuff put together, people right and you actually have to invest material resources.

Paul Jarley:                       Interestingly, Jesse got started in exactly the way Mike Pape described except he didn't have investors.

Jesse Wolfe:                     I had a business planning writing class with professor Michael O'Donnell. He told us we had to come up with a business plan idea and I didn't want to be a part of a team that wrote for another bar concept. So, I had this idea after I had my wisdom teeth pulled out for a Ben and Jerry's style Hummus company. And when I started writing the business plan for it, I realized there was this massive gap in that market. It was almost billion dollar category and there was one big contender really monopolizing it. And it was really primed for competition to come in.

Paul Jarley:                       Jesse had a plan but no product. So he got busy with the help of his grandmother.

Jesse Wolfe:                     I actually started O'Dang Hummus with about a hundred and fifty bucks. My grandmother gave me a food processor, so that was the freebie. And the rest of it was honestly just ingredients and some labels from like a little local printer that hooked me up.

Paul Jarley:                       Jesse had created what we call a minimum viable product or MVP. Cameron Ford says, it's really important to have a prototype.

Cameron Ford:                Because you give them something tangible, I always like to tell people a picture's worth a thousand words. A prototype is worth a thousand pictures. You get something that people can literally see and put their hands on that's very tactile. That often will enhance the conversation and imagining process for a lot.

Paul Jarley:                       You could do more than just touch Jesse's prototype. You could taste it. And it was yummy.

Jesse Wolfe:                     And that was the basis you know, it got me in front of people getting a taste testing and samples. And then when it came time to really launch the product and start selling it, I entered the UCF Business competition called 'The Joust'.

Paul Jarley:                       Rather than seek out a network of advisors that could help Jess grow his business, he went straight for the financial kill. In retrospect Jesse realizes this may have been the biggest he made.

Jesse Wolfe:                     Not getting more people around me quicker in that space was a bit of a hindrance.

Donna Mackenzie:         I think starting a new business is sort of like waiting into the ocean with waves crashing around you and birds pulling you this way and that.

Paul Jarley:                       Donna Mackenzie is executive director of Starter Studio. She thinks Jesse waited way too long.

Paul Jarley:                       How early does that need to start? That mentorship and guidance.

Donna Mackenzie:         Day one.

Paul Jarley:                       Jesse didn't win 'The Joust' and the big money that came with it. In fact, he finished third.

Jesse Wolfe:                     I took third place in that. And I'm proud of that.

Paul Jarley:                       That's always the path to success in 'The Joust'. Always finishing third!

Jesse Wolfe:                     Third place is the winning spot. It's not first, it's not second, it's third.

Paul Jarley:                       The money is in third.

Jesse Wolfe:                     The money's in the third. Yup.

Paul Jarley:                       You lost to women who wanted to pee in a cup.

Jesse Wolfe:                     Yeah, that's [crosstalk 00:06:57] I lost to a female urination cup so that's one of my greatest prides thus far at UCF. But yeah,...

Featured Guests:

Sean Snaith - Director, UCF Instiute for Economic Competitiveness

Don Unser - Retail President

Anand Krishnamoorthy - Associate Professor of Marketing

Jahir Hernandez - Student, Former Old Navy employee

Tina Hand - Dean's Assistant

Jessica Dourney - Assistant Director of Outreach and Engagement

Episode Transcription:

 

Paul Jarley:                         Black Friday used to sound like this.

Jahir Hernandez:             They come in waves and I remember specifically that the check out line was all the way to the back of the store and you couldn't get from one side of the store to the other because that line was so massive.

Paul Jarley:                         And now ...

News Anchor:                    News Center 6 team’s Joshua Short is inside the UP Mall where the doors will be opening in just under an hour from now. Josh how are things going.

News Reporter:                Look we were expecting a big crowd. We don't have the big crowd that we expected. I got up at three o'clock excited to do my first ever black Friday and ain't nobody here. I am literally upset right now. I don't know why people did not wake up.

Paul Jarley:                         Where did all the shoppers go?

Tina Hand:                          Wasn't worth it so I haven't done it probably for the last five years.

Jessica Dourney:              I won't be there cuz I'll be watching the UCF Knights, our national champs, playing at the, in Tampa.

Paul Jarley:                         Eh, maybe they'll shop on Monday.

Paul Jarley:                         This show is all about separating hype from fundamental change. I'm Paul Jarley, Dean of the College of Business here at UCF. I've got lots of questions to get answers, I'm talking to people with interesting insights into the future of business. Have you ever wondered, is this really a thing? On to our show.

Paul Jarley:                         UCF student Jahir Hernandez recalls his most vivid Black Friday memory. It was from behind the cash register at an Old Navy.

Jahir Hernandez:             The pleasure and the privilege of working Black Friday, my hours were from 1:30 a.m. until 12:30 p.m.

Paul Jarley:                         Jahir didn't love it.

Jahir Hernandez:             My most vivid memories would definitely be that rush I think at around 9:00 a.m. where people kinda get up, they have that turkey hangover where they're done with that. They come in waves, and I remember specifically that the actual checkout line was all the way to the back of the store and you couldn't get from one side of the store to the other because that line was so massive. You have people that are super nice that maybe they've worked in retail before, they understand the craziness. You also have those other people that are there just to get whatever they want and they're very upset.

Paul Jarley:                         Who's responsible? When did all this holiday shopping madness get its start? Black Friday isn't as old as you think. It started in Philadelphia back in the 1950s, and got its name from police officers who hated being dragged out the day after Thanksgiving to deal with the local shopping madness. It didn't become a national phenomenon until the 1980s, and by then it was reinvented to be the day that retailers finally got into the black, well, at least that's the story. Don Unser is a USF alum and retail group president at NPD. NPD is the nation's leading retail sales data company. If anyone would know when retail companies turn into the black, it would be them. And well Don, he's a little skeptical of the story.

Don Unser:                         The original roots of Black Friday, it was a point in time at which the retailer turned for the year to be profitable, and there are a lot of myth busting things out there that said did that really happen or did that not happen. I guess back when we had a traditional predictable retail season, when we had just stores and we knew what the season was, we knew what the consumer was going to do, it was this kinda static environment, I think there could have been a relative time on the calendar where there was some profitability.

Paul Jarley:                         But those days are long gone. Here's professor Anand Krishnamoorthy from our marketing department.

Anand Krishnamoorthy:               The data suggests that either retails are already significantly profitable before Black Friday, or if they're not profitable by Black Friday they are not turning a profit after Black Friday.

Paul Jarley:                         Don sums up the evolution of Black Friday story this way.

Don Unser:                         It's just a milestone that they use to create a buying holiday for the consumer.

Paul Jarley:                         But who the heck needs a buying holiday? Anand says, "department stores, for one."

Anand Krishnamoorthy:               Department stores are traditionally the ones that banked on Black Friday turning things around for them. Traditionally stores that don't rely a lot on sales promotions tend not to be affected by Black Friday a whole lot. Target and Walmart for example, they're not into sales promotions, they're low priced stores right traditionally speaking. So, like if you're a Ross or a Burlington operations, you're traditionally not affected by Black Friday. If you're an upscale retailer, you're not affected by Black Friday because you don't discount a whole lot. It is stores in the middle, traditionally have been department stores.

Paul Jarley:                         And online merchants, well, they like to create fake shopping holidays too.

Sean Snaith:                       You know the made up holiday of Single's Day and Prime Day I think are studies in and of themselves.

Paul Jarley:                         Hallmark might be able to tell us a lot about that, but what do you think?

Sean Snaith:                       Exactly. Neither one of those days mean anything. Matter of fact on Prime Day most people don't even remember the origin of it, but what Prime Day was is Amazon saw that Jet was about to launch their platform and so they did a Prime Day to put out great deals that would squelch the launch of Jet.com. And that was Prime day. So, the origin of these two days are interesting. The fact that Single's Day did as much volume as it did and does is absolutely fascinating.

Paul Jarley:                         Oh, it's more than fascinating. Listen to Anand.

Anand Krishnamoorthy:               How much did Alibaba bring in on Single's Day four days ago, do you know?

Paul Jarley:                         I can't imagine. It's gotta be a humongous number-

Anand Krishnamoorthy:               [crosstalk 00:05:44] an excess of 30 billion dollars alright, in one day. Amazon's Prime Day brought in four billion dollars or so.

Paul Jarley:                         And then there's that fake online holiday phenomena.

Anand Krishnamoorthy:               Cyber Monday is the most attractive online shopping day of the year. Brings in I think about six seven billion dollars or so.

Paul Jarley:                         But like Black Friday, online holiday shopping is a bit over hyped.

Anand Krishnamoorthy:               What percentage of holiday sales do you think takes place online. As of last year, what was that percentage?

Paul Jarley:                         I would guess forty percent.

Anand Krishnamoorthy:               It was a hundred billion dollars in change. It was less than twenty percent of all of holiday sales alright. 700 billion sales of holiday shopping take place. Only a hundred billion comes from online.

Paul Jarley:                         Anand's data tells me, you're going holiday shopping. If you can't help yourself and feel the need to battle the crowds in search of that bargain, here's some things to keep in mind. First, our resident economist Sean Snaith tells us, "It's going to be a big holiday season. People have money in their pocket, they're feeling good, and they're ready to spend."

Sean Snaith:                       One of the strongest in quite a few years. Take home pay is a little bit larger, and that's also converging with faster growth in wages and salaries as the labor market tightens. And consumer confidence is at eighteen year highs, people are feeling pretty good. The labor market's good, the economy is doing well, and those are conditions that are conditions that are conducive to spending.

Paul Jarley:                         And Don says, "Retailers are ready."

Don Unser:                         I think the retailers are set with inventory.

Paul Jarley:                         Especially with this year's hot ticket item.

Don Unser:                         We think that the Smart Speaker, the Echo products, and the Google Home products will continue to be very hot this holiday. We think stereo headphones are gonna be very hot, really led by Apple Air pods. Those are just absolutely on fire right now, and for the last year, year and a half those have been in heavy allocation. Retailers haven't been able to get enough and now they are. We also think that anything having to do with the home categories are gonna be really strong. The Instant Pot, last year, which was a super hot product, and the air fryers. These are two convenience splays basically for the consumer. Both of those will continue to be very hot this year.

Paul Jarley:                         But what about the kids?

Don Unser:                         To tell you some of the hottest toy products, Lol Surprise will still be hot this year

Anand Krishnamoorthy:               I think [inaudible 00:08:17] which is a soft plush doll that comes in a hard package so you'll have to soak it, rinse, then you'll dry, but then it becomes a plush doll after you do all of tha

Featured Guests:

Stan Horton - Former Enron Executive; President & CEO, Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP

Scott Keith - Regional President, North & Central Florida Region, BB&T

Marshall Schminke - BB&T Professor of Business Ethics (Management)

Robert Folger - Distinguished Alumni Endowed Professor in Business Ethics

Merrell Bailey - Managing Partner, Your Caring Law Firm

Episode Transcription:

 

Stan Horton:                      I was on the Enron executive committee when the company went bankrupt. I just witnessed firsthand how a company can implode just due to poor ethics. I saw good people do bad things.

Paul Jarley:                         It's not just about good people doing bad things.

Marshall Schminke:        But it's also interesting to figure out why bad people do bad things and good people do good things. Right?

Paul Jarley:                         It focuses on what people do rather than what authorities say they should do.

Rob Folger:                         The advent of behavioral ethics was the advent of doing research on what people do and why they do it rather than telling them what they should do.

Paul Jarley:                         And it might empower people to step forward and question things. Even when it turns out their wrong.

Merrell Bailey:                  How would you be able to train a teller to say it's okay to tell a client no and we will back you up and you won't lose your job and you won't lose your health insurance and your...

Paul Jarley:                         Even if you're wrong?

Merrell Bailey:                  Even if you're wrong.

Paul Jarley:                         Right.

Paul Jarley:                         Behavioral ethics holds the promise of helping companies do the right thing. But will firms provide faculty with the access necessary to help them solve their deepest problems? Or, will they just keep them locked up in the closet?

Paul Jarley:                         This show is all about separating hype from fundamental change. I'm Paul Jarley, Dean of the College of Business here at UCF. I've got lots of questions. To get answers, I'm talking to people with interesting insights into the future of business. Have you ever wondered, "Is This Really a Thing?"

Paul Jarley:                         On to our show.

Paul Jarley:                         This podcast is a little different. It was done over drinks and hors d'oeuvres before the Colleges' Deans' Advisory Board Meeting in September. We brought together five people with a common interest in ethics, had a conversation, and edited it down to what you're about to hear. Our guests were:

Paul Jarley:                         Merrell Bailey. Merle is a four-time alumnus of the College. She's on our Deans' Advisory Board and has degrees in Accounting and Law. Two fields with extensive codes of ethics.

Paul Jarley:                         Scott Keith is Regional President for BB&T in North and Central Florida. BB&T sponsors both an ethics class in the College as well as the faculty member who teaches that course, Marshall Schminke. Marshall is the BB&T Professor of Business Ethics. He joined us for the evening via Skype because he was speaking at a conference in East France.

Paul Jarley:                         They're joined by Rob Folger. Rob is considered the Father of Behavioral Ethics. He sits in an endowed position that was funded by our last guest.

Paul Jarley:                         Stan Horton. We caught up with Stan a couple of weeks after the event and added his insights into the conversation. Stan is an alum of the College and the President and CEO of Boardwalk Pipeline Partners. Stan was the only member of Enron's top management team that was not indicted in the Enron scandal. He closed Enron. It is not a stretch to say that the biggest corporate ethical breach of the last century started a chain of events that led to a whole new way to study ethics and that that is happening at UCF.

Paul Jarley:                         My first question was for Scott Keith.

Paul Jarley:                         Could you explain why BB&T has had a long-term interest in ethics and what it hopes to get out of ethics education?

Scott Keith:                        To BB&T, the people, the values that we have is the culture of our organization. There are three non-negotiables in our organization: our vision, our mission and our values. We want to be the best financial institution possible but the only way that we do that is by living-out ten core value which we deem the ethics of BB&T. We have thirty seven thousand associates; we're bringing new ones on all the time. We think it's critical that we invest in the future of not only BB&T but the future of the markets that we serve. To do that, we have the opportunity to team up with wonderful institutions like UCF's College of Business. For us to be able to partner with Marshall and have a course speaking to young-minded, young professionals with bright futures about ethics and the importance of that in business is helping us live out our mission. It's critical to our culture long-term. We want to hire folks that live that way because they'll fit within our organization.

Paul Jarley:                         Stan, tell me a little bit about your motivation for giving the gift that led to the Ethics Chair.

Stan Horton:                      On that, it's pretty easy. I was with Enron. I was on the Enron Executive Committee when the company went bankrupt. I was the only member of the Enron Executive Committee that stayed during the bankruptcy and I just witnessed firsthand how a company can implode just due to poor ethics. I saw good people do bad things that I didn't really know if they knew they were doing bad things at the time. But, some of them compounded themselves and after you look back for while you realized that it was the culture of the company and that culture did not stress or recognize strong ethical behavior. When you don't do that, over time, the culture deteriorates and what happened to Enron, happens.

Paul Jarley:                         I'm going to turn to Rob. Rob, you're considered one of the founders of behavioral ethics. I'd like you to talk a little bit about how behavioral ethics maybe differs from traditional ethical approaches and training.

Rob Folger:                         Sure, let me say, first of all, thanks to Stan because part of what behavioral ethics is today is because of him, is because of his support. Ethics, for me, or in business schools, for example, it was dominated by philosophers and so ethics was about ethical philosophy.

Paul Jarley:                         Aristotle, right, if we want to go all the way back?

Rob Folger:                         And so, the advent of behavioral ethics was the advent of doing research on what people do and why they do it rather than telling them what they should do. The kinds of things that Scott, for example, wants to be able to promote, how do you promote it? What motivates people besides the inspiration of the leadership of a company when they're in the trenches?

Paul Jarley:                         Marshal, do you think its fair to say that behavioral ethics is the study of how and why good people do bad things?

Marshall Schminke:        A lot of people would agree that that's a pretty reasonable place to start. But, I think we go beyond that as well because it is interesting to try to understand why good people do bad things. But it's also interesting to figure out why bad people do bad things and good people do good things. Right? My big epiphany came; I spent eight years a an academic fellow with the Ethics and Compliance Initiative. They're a group of about sixty or so Chief Ethics Officers from Fortune 50 level firms and people from the SEC and VA and that sort of thing. You don't have to spend very many years with a group like that to figure out what they're interested in is what levers do we pull to get the sorts of behaviors and the sort of commitment that we need to see among our ninety thousand employees.

Paul Jarley:                         How about you Rob? Would you agree with that?

Rob Folger:                         Oh, yeah. Oh, absolutely, I think that the experience of people in business many times is they don't always know the levers to pull the buttons to push in a positive, promotive way.

Paul Jarley:                         Merrell, you have degrees in two areas which have had a long history of ethical codes of behavior, and training people to abide by those ethical codes of behavior, and so talk a little bit about what's been the traditional approach in accounting and in legal areas to questions of ethics and what you think might be the value of behavioral ethics, or not.

Merrell Bailey:                  Well to quote Marshall, my epiphany was realizing that two different professions, because I'm licensed as a CPA and also as an attorney, can have different ethical standards that are completely diametrically opposed. I don't think most professions realize that they have different ethical standards. So the ethical standard for a CPA is, for auditors, they're supposed to keep everyone informed and share information on an equal playing field. And attorneys, we have to advocate for one person and forget all the rest. I've got this information, I'm going to use this information and I'm not sharing it and, in fact, it would be a breach of my duty if I did share it. So, I think that's part of the tension of CPA's working with attorneys because the CPA is like, "Well if we all would work together and you gave up this we, and I gave up that, we'd all have a really great solution" and the attorney is like, "Screw you. I've got my client and I want all of the pie".

Merrell Bailey:                  Every single profession that I deal with has a different ethical

Featured Guests:

Cindy Barth - Editor, Orlando Business Journal

Grant Heston - Chief of Staff and Vice President for Communications & Marketing, UCF

Rick Brunson - Associate Instructor, UCF Nicholson School of Communication & Media

Episode Transcription:

 

Paul Jarley:                         It makes you believe there's no such thing as truth.

Grant Heston:                   There's a lot of things labeled fake news that people just don't like.

Paul Jarley:                         It's a popular Halloween costume.

Rick Brunson:                    There are companies selling fake news costumes. You can dress up in a fake news ... It's plastered with newspaper pages and it has red fake across the front ... Yeah. $54.95 online.

Paul Jarley:                         And combined with data analytics, it can be, well, clickalicious.

Cindy Barth:                       There are certain things that we know all we have to do is put these keywords in a headline, and we're going to have what we call a clickalicious day because everybody in town is going to be going, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang on that story. We know that.

Rick Brunson:                    Where, oh where have you gone, Walter Cronkite?

Walter Cronkite:              That's the way it is. Friday, March 6th 1981.

Paul Jarley:                         This show is all about separating hype from fundamental change. I'm Paul Jarley, Dean of the College of Business here at UCF. I've got lots of questions. To get answers, I'm talking to people with interesting insights into the future of business. Have you ever wondered, is this really a thing? Onto our show.

Paul Jarley:                         Let's talk a little bit about how the world is changing in really broad strokes. When we were hunter gatherers and we started to plant crops, land was the most valuable thing and the people who were the richest and the most powerful owned the most land. And then machines were invented, and the Industrial Revolution happened and market economies occurred. In that, who owned the most machines became the most powerful people. Today, the most valuable asset is information. It's data. And the most powerful people in the future are going to be the people who control the most data, and they can use that data either to help inform you or they can manipulate you with that data.

Paul Jarley:                         This gets us to the topic of fake news and whether fake news is really a thing or not. Is this something that 10 years from now we'll kind of laugh about and move on from, or will it be a part of our daily lives? And if it is, how do we determine what's fake from what's real out there? That's certainly something that my students need to know how to do, or we're all doomed. So, I brought together a panel of experts to talk a little bit about fake news, what it is, and whether it's really a thing or not. So I'm going to allow my guests to kind of introduce themselves. I'll start with Grant.

Grant Heston:                   Sure. Thank you, Paul. I'm Grant Heston. I'm our Vice President for Communications in Marketing and Chief of Staff at the University of Central Florida. I got my undergraduate degree in journalism from a university about 90 minutes north of here, a little bit smaller than us. Football team is not quite as good. And so I live and breath with this every single day.

Cindy Barth:                       Hi, I'm Cindy Barth. I'm Editor of Orlando Business Journal. I am a UCF graduate. My degree is in journalism with a minor in political science.

Rick Brunson:                    Morning, everybody. My name is Rick Brunson and I'm an Associate Instructor of Journalism at the University of Central Florida where I'm also a proud alum. Got my degree there in 1984 and became a reporter and editor for the next 30 years and have been really privileged to return to the university where I learned about journalism and I teach it there now. Glad to be with you.

Paul Jarley:                         Thank you all for joining us this morning. Rick, since you're the academic in the group and academics love definitions, let's start there. What is fake news?

Rick Brunson:                    If you start with the word fake, it means counterfeit, which means there's something real to judge it against. If you start from that point, then there's hope because there is something real to judge it against. The thing about the term fake news, it's become very elastic in the last couple of years. We used to think of fake news as that news or information that was intentionally falsified and based on untruths with the intent to deceive the public. Now that term has been elasticized in the American mindset to also encompass things such as editorial decision making that is crafted with the intent to deceive or mislead, and it's also become politicized where fake news is the news that I don't necessarily agree with. And so it's a very mushy, mashed up ... I did notice this morning that next week is Halloween, and there are companies selling fake news costumes. You can ...

Paul Jarley:                         Then you know it's a thing, right?

Rick Brunson:                    There you go. You can dress up in a fake news ... It's plastered with newspaper pages and it has red fake across the front. Yeah. $54.95 online, so, yeah. There you go.

Paul Jarley:                         Fake news is expensive. Cindy, would you agree on that definition? Do you have anything to add?

Cindy Barth:                       I would. I think the most dangerous thing is just that everyone has kind of their own definition of fake news sometimes, and for me in journalism, fake news would be something that is just completely not based on any fact at all. But for many people, as Rick shared, if they don't agree with something that you write, all of a sudden it's fake news. And it's a very easy thing to just throw around nowadays because you hear it used so often. So to me, that's a very alarming trend, is just how quickly we immediately turn to calling stuff fake news without really thinking it through.

Paul Jarley:                         Grant, where did fake news come from? Should we blame Facebook?

Grant Heston:                   Goodness gracious, you would ask me that question. I think fake news has been with us forever. It's just the medium has changed right now and it seems easier to share and be duped by fake news than it was 100 years ago when you had newspapers and the beginnings of broad, really mass communications. But no. I think it's been with us for a long time, and to your question to the start, I think it's going to be with us into the future and that's why understanding it, recognizing it, and coming up with ways to combat it is more important now than probably it's ever been.

Paul Jarley:                         So what motivates it? What problem is it solving?

Cindy Barth:                       It's basically reinforcing what you already believe in many cases. I think a lot of times I see things in people's Facebook feed where they will post something and someone will immediately debunk it and say this is fake. Here's the site. Go check this. But it still remains in their sight because it's something that they're already convinced in their mind that they believe and it's correct, and so that's the difficult thing. How do we get back to a point where we will be people who are curious enough to actually figure out is this real or not rather than just believing it right off the top of our head.

Paul Jarley:                         But is it fair to say that fake news is meant to provoke, that it's meant to elicit an emotional reaction and perhaps a behavior that follows that? Is that where it comes from?

Grant Heston:                   I think it's meant to influence. It's meant to try to either reinforce your point of view, or often times just get you to give up. The truth is knowable. We can find the truth, and I often think the point of fake news is to try to blur those lines just to say, you know what? We'll never know the truth about this, will we? And that's a dangerous place to be.

Rick Brunson:                    In the last election cycle which we've now parsed and studied and there have been criminal indictments from the Criminal Justice Department in terms of Russian and other offshore troll companies and troll farms that deliberately put fake news stories in social media with the intent to disrupt our election process and to so discord among Americans so that we fight about hot red button issues like immigration and other things, and it's meant to disrupt democracy, frankly, when it comes from offshore overseas, I think.

Paul Jarley:                         And data analytic techniques allow me to amplify that now, right, because I know what you click on and I can continue to feed you more of that to make it seem like it's even more important and happening more often than you might otherwise think and reinforce what you think about that going forward.

Grant Heston:                   No. I agree. I think we are becoming very much creatures of our own bubbles, of our social media, of our own reading habits. I've heard Rick say this before. If you subscribe to the New York Times, that's great. Subscribe to the Wall Street Journal too. If you watch CNN and MSNBC, tune into Fox News as well. Expand your world view, and maybe you won't agree with everything, but you'll get a different perspective. You'll see how other people are being informed and that makes you better able to understand the world around you.

Paul Jarley:                         So has fake news influenced real news? I'm picking up on something Grant said there a minute ago. If you watch CNN and you watch Fox News, it's hard to believe they live in the same world. Whatever your politics are, it doesn't really matter....

Featured Guests:

Kelly Dowling - Assistant Dean for Advancement, Stony Brook University College of Engineering and Applied Science

Ken Bradley - Former Winter Park Mayor

Ron Piccolo - Chair, UCF Department of Management

Mark Dickie - Professor of Economics

Jonathan Hasford - Assistant Professor of Marketing

Carolyn Massiah - Associate Chair, Department of Marketing & Associate Lecturer, Marketing

Episode Transcription:

 

Paul Jarley:                       Green Acres was a popular TV show when I was a kid. Simple plot line. Wall Street attorney forces socialite wife to give up New York and move to the farm. Cultures class, chaos ensues, but now it seems the tables have turned. Chickens are leaving farms in favor of urban backyards. Some inner city chickens even have Facebook pages. What's going on here? Are backyard chickens a thing? If so, why, and more importantly how can we stop them? This show is all about separating hype from fundamental change. I'm Paul Jarley, dean of the College of Business here at UCF. I've got lots of questions. To get answers, I'm talking to people with interesting insights into the future of business. Have you ever wondered, is this really a thing? Onto our show.

Paul Jarley:                       My wife and I lead complicated lives. Careers and homes in two different states, five children spread across four time zones, our club's soccer schedule that takes Suzanne and sometimes meets towns far and wide, my work related travel, and our love of experiencing new places. Honestly, there are days I'm not sure where I am when I first wake up. One morning a few years ago, I was home in Lexington when I heard this. Suzanne was raised on a farm, but I was pretty sure we weren't at her parents' place. When she woke, I asked her about hearing that rooster crowing. She smiled and told me that the neighbors have installed a chicken coop, and that we were getting farm fresh eggs as part of the deal. "Much healthier and better tasting than store bought eggs," she stated with authority. Everybody knows eggs come in two rows in nice little cartons that sell for a few bucks at the grocery store. If you want to go crazy, you can buy the free range chicken variety, pay a dollar more, feel morally superior, and cook an extra one because they're puny.

Paul Jarley:                       No one in their right mind believes it makes any economic sense to raise chickens at home. Besides, they're dirty, smelly creatures. There's a reason most of us stay away from the harsh realities of the food chain. I cracked a few eggs, scrambled them, and took a few bites. Different, not obviously better, I thought. Not a thing. Just a few hippies. This thing will be gone very soon. It turns out, I may have been wrong.

Kelly Dowling:                 Hi, chick chicks.

Paul Jarley:                       This whole chicken in the backyard thing has got some legs. The government has even released a series of studies on it. The best data on chicken migration to the cities comes from a 2013 study by the US Department of Agriculture. They looked at urban chicken issues in LA, Miami, Denver, and New York City. A few takeaways. More than half a percent of single family homes in these urban areas have backyard chickens. That's a lot of chicken. Second, overall more than 40% of people in these cities were in favor of allowing chickens in their communities. That's a lot of chicken support, and third, nearly 4% of households without chickens said they plan to have them in the next five years. Now, lots of people tell you they intend to do something and never follow through, but let's take that last nugget as evidence that urban chickens are on the rise. The USDA did. To understand why people do this, I wanted to get into the mind of an urban chicken owner. Someone who is harboring those dirty birds.

Kelly Dowling:                 Really, I think of it as the pet that makes you breakfast.

Paul Jarley:                       That's Kelly Dowling. Kelly has her MBA from UCF. She is wonderfully quirky, and she was my development officer. These days, she's assistant dean for development at Stony Brook's College of Engineering, and most importantly she is a novice urban chicken owner.

Kelly Dowling:                 I have not done the chicken math as yet, but I can tell you so far I've had these chicks and I bought these chicks at four days old. I've got the feed, the brooder, the chicken run, the chicken coop. I bought a chicken playground set for them to jump up around on. I have built a little chicken sanctuary, and so far I'm all in about $1,700 dollars.

Paul Jarley:                       Chicken playground. Since Kelly is a novice chicken owner, we're going to use the resources of UCF to help her out. I'll do the chicken math for Kelly. Kelly has six chickens. Egg production varies a bit by breed, but to keep the math simple, let's say these chickens lay 500 eggs over their lifetime. Not a bad estimate. That means those six chickens will produce 3,000 eggs. She's in $1,700 dollars. A little of that is variable cost, mainly chicken feed. So, let's say that her fixed costs are $1,600 dollars. That means just the fixed cost of an egg for Kelly, 53 cents. That translates into $6.40 a dozen. Comparison, Publix $2.49. Whole Foods, $4.99. Now in fairness to Kelly, she may be able to spread her fixed costs over more than a couple of years. That's about the average length chickens are regular egg producers, but if you consider that there still are more variable costs, it's not an economic bargain. Don't believe me, believe a real economist. Now, Mark Dickie is a professor in our economics department. As he explains, the industrial egg complex is built to minimize costs and Kelly's six little chickens, well they just can't really complete.

Mark Dickie:                    So, the industrial egg complex has many, many chickens. They've got everything automated. They've got everything down to the last cent measured, and they're going to do it more efficiently. She probably has happier chickens than the industrial egg complex, but doubtful that she's gonna get the eggs more cheaply.

Paul Jarley:                       In fairness to Kelly, she mainly wants to enjoy them as pets. It's how you end up spending $1,600 dollars on a chicken mansion, but what I really want to know is, do they love you back?

Kelly Dowling:                 One of them seems to at least enjoy my company. The other five run screaming every time I come into the coop.

Paul Jarley:                       And then there's the biggest question facing any pet owner. When you go on vacation, what do you do with your chickens? Do you send them to a chicken pound where they hang out with other chickens? What do you do?

Kelly Dowling:                 I have two extended feeders so my chickens can live in their coop and in their run for a week without any problem for food and water. I also have a battery powered door opener and closer, so every night that door to their coop closes automatically. Every morning, it opens automatically. So, I have them on automatic pilot. Everything is easy peasy for me.

Paul Jarley:                       Chickens seem a lot like cats. Disinterested in love, but low maintenance.

Kelly Dowling:                 So, I hope that I like to eat the eggs of my chickens. I hope that I like it. I'm not entirely sure because a tiny bit of me is a little grossed out by this, but I feed them really well.

Paul Jarley:                       I told you she's wonderfully quirky. Let's help Kelly out here.

Jonathan Hasford:          Anything that we invest time, and effort, and energy into we feel more attached to, we feel more bonded towards and so we like it better.

Paul Jarley:                       That's Johnathan Hasford, assistant professor in our marketing department. Johnathan thinks Kelly is gonna like those eggs just fine.

Jonathan Hasford:          There's literature and marketing research on co-production of value and stuff like that, and so-

Paul Jarley:                       Talk to me about that.

Jonathan Hasford:          Yeah, I mean companies from the time they start to innovate a new product, the benefits are immense. They can bring in consumers and have the consumer feel like they're a co-producer in whatever this idea, service, object, thing is that's being developed and so it could just be the fact of co-production in a sense of, "I feel like now I'm contributing more to the food that I produce."

Paul Jarley:                       So, she's going to love the eggs, but can she really raise the chickens?

Kelly Dowling:                 You know me. I was born in Detroit, so I didn't come by this naturally.

Paul Jarley:                       No, you're not really prepared for this.

Kelly Dowling:                 That's absolutely correct. It took me a year to get it together. I took a backyard chicken class, I bought several books, I told everybody I know I was gonna get chicken. I sought a lot of advice from people, and then after about a year I felt comfortable in starting.

Paul Jarley:                       But Kelly seems to have prepared well for the challenges that lie ahead.

Ron Piccolo:                     And then only once that's done does someone like Kelly have confidence in her ability to raise chickens.

Paul Jarley:                       That's Ron Piccolo, chair of our management department and an expert in how people build confidence when facing new challenges. Ron has only one piece of advice for Kelly; maybe she should join an urban chicken support group.

Ron Piccolo:                     My reaction is if someone's making an effort to raise chickens, which is a rather unique circumstance, they're gonna look for validation of that effort from other people who are doing the same thing. People like to be different,...

Featured Guests:

Jesse Wolfe - Founder / President, O'Dang Hummus

Cameron Ford - Director, UCF Center for Entrepreneurial Leadership

Michael Pape - Dr. Phillips Entrepreneur in Residence; Lecturer, Management

Donna Mackenzie - Executive Director, StarterStudio

Carol Ann Dykes Logue - Site Manager, UCF Business Incubator

Episode Transcription:

 

Voice:                                "If you build it, he will come."

Terence Mann:                "He will come, Ray. He will most definitely come."

Paul Jarley:                       That's my favorite line from Field of Dreams. But, what if you can't build it?

Jesse Wolfe:                     It came out to a $700,000, almost a million dollar, order. And they needed them to be about $10 a cart and I could not figure out how to get them below $25 a cart.

Paul Jarley:                       Or, what if they don't come?

Cameron Ford:                The Google Glass, people started using it out in public and stuff like that, and quickly were scorned as being what were described as Glass-holes. My understanding is they pulled from the market.

Paul Jarley:                       Lean start up offers a different approach, but is it really a thing? Or, is it just academics hyping the scientific method?

Paul Jarley:                       This show is all about separating hype from fundamental change. I'm Paul Jarley, Dean of the College of Business here at UCF. I've got lots of questions. To get answers, I'm talking to people with interesting insights into the future of business. Have you ever wondered, is this really a thing? Onto our show.

Paul Jarley:                       This is how significant businesses started back in the day.

Michael Pape:                 What we were, I'll just say, required to do as an entrepreneur with VCs with trying to get, maybe, economic development funds.

Paul Jarley:                       Yup.

Michael Pape:                 And this was in the biotech space.

Paul Jarley:                       That's Dr. Michael Pape, Professor of Practice here in the College of Business, and Director of our UpStarts program.

Michael Pape:                 So it was a tech-oriented business that I've been involved in, was write the business plan, and I have sat down, myself and with my teams, of writing the 40 to 60 page business plan. The fat startup, if I may define it that way, had you do that. Venture capitalists would request it, and they would want to make sure that you saw the plan from beginning to end.

Paul Jarley:                       Then a funny thing happened starting in the early 1990s. Universities started to develop entrepreneurship programs. They did this partly to serve their economic development missions, partly because donors loved to give money to this cause and partly because more and more students became interested in entrepreneurship as a career path.

Paul Jarley:                       In the early 1990s, ideals spun out of Stanford, with an emphasis on design thinking. Another decade passed and Berkeley started developing what has come to be known as lean start up. It had a coming out party in 2011, with the publication of Eric Riles book by the same name. But, are universities and business schools really the place to launch business startups?

Paul Jarley:                       I had my doubts. We excel at getting rule followers great jobs in companies who are looking for functional talent. We really aren't geared up to help people who want to color outside the lines, pursue their crazy dreams, even when people say they're wrong. That said, a quarter of my students say they want to start a business, and students seem to love the lean startup methodology. Cameron Ford, Director of our Center for Entrepreneurial Leadership, has a pretty obvious reason why.

Cameron Ford:                Our students love the lean approach because, of course, they don't have any resources. So-

Paul Jarley:                       Simply put, they're broke. But what exactly is lean startup, and what are its challenges?

Jesse Wolfe:                     That's how I started my business.

Paul Jarley:                       We're going to take you on a journey with this guy.

Jesse Wolfe:                     Lean startup, bootstrapping 101. That's where great businesses, in my opinion, come from because people that start off with too much funding usually have an issue staying on course. When your back's against the wall is when I feel you think the fastest, the brightest, the quickest and you become the most resourceful. When you have too much money you tend to get lackadaisical in my opinion.

Paul Jarley:                       That, my friends, is Jesse Wolfe, CEO and founder of O'Dang Hummus, and quite frankly a soundbite machine.

Jesse Wolfe:                     We run a very successful, thriving business and people are like, “Oh where's the Lamborghini?”. I'm like, “Someone else's hands because I'm dumping all my money back into the business”.

Paul Jarley:                       Now let's follow Jesse's startup story. A startup isn't the same as a company. Back to Cameron Ford.

Cameron Ford:                It's not a miniature version of a company, it's actually a vehicle, for remaining humble, viewing all of your ideas as hypotheses and going out and collecting data to validate or invalidate these things and move forward-

Paul Jarley:                       It's a product development process more than a-

Cameron Ford:                I would say it's more of an uncertainty reduction process. Because it's not just about the product, it's also about relationships. So it's kinda three elements to building a company. You gotta have conceptual kinda stuff put together, you've gotta have social stuff put together, people right and you actually have to invest material resources.

Paul Jarley:                       Interestingly, Jesse got started in exactly the way Mike Pape described except he didn't have investors.

Jesse Wolfe:                     I had a business planning writing class with professor Michael O'Donnell. He told us we had to come up with a business plan idea and I didn't want to be a part of a team that wrote for another bar concept. So, I had this idea after I had my wisdom teeth pulled out for a Ben and Jerry's style Hummus company. And when I started writing the business plan for it, I realized there was this massive gap in that market. It was almost billion dollar category and there was one big contender really monopolizing it. And it was really primed for competition to come in.

Paul Jarley:                       Jesse had a plan but no product. So he got busy with the help of his grandmother.

Jesse Wolfe:                     I actually started O'Dang Hummus with about a hundred and fifty bucks. My grandmother gave me a food processor, so that was the freebie. And the rest of it was honestly just ingredients and some labels from like a little local printer that hooked me up.

Paul Jarley:                       Jesse had created what we call a minimum viable product or MVP. Cameron Ford says, it's really important to have a prototype.

Cameron Ford:                Because you give them something tangible, I always like to tell people a picture's worth a thousand words. A prototype is worth a thousand pictures. You get something that people can literally see and put their hands on that's very tactile. That often will enhance the conversation and imagining process for a lot.

Paul Jarley:                       You could do more than just touch Jesse's prototype. You could taste it. And it was yummy.

Jesse Wolfe:                     And that was the basis you know, it got me in front of people getting a taste testing and samples. And then when it came time to really launch the product and start selling it, I entered the UCF Business competition called 'The Joust'.

Paul Jarley:                       Rather than seek out a network of advisors that could help Jess grow his business, he went straight for the financial kill. In retrospect Jesse realizes this may have been the biggest he made.

Jesse Wolfe:                     Not getting more people around me quicker in that space was a bit of a hindrance.

Donna Mackenzie:         I think starting a new business is sort of like waiting into the ocean with waves crashing around you and birds pulling you this way and that.

Paul Jarley:                       Donna Mackenzie is executive director of Starter Studio. She thinks Jesse waited way too long.

Paul Jarley:                       How early does that need to start? That mentorship and guidance.

Donna Mackenzie:         Day one.

Paul Jarley:                       Jesse didn't win 'The Joust' and the big money that came with it. In fact, he finished third.

Jesse Wolfe:                     I took third place in that. And I'm proud of that.

Paul Jarley:                       That's always the path to success in 'The Joust'. Always finishing third!

Jesse Wolfe:                     Third place is the winning spot. It's not first, it's not second, it's third.

Paul Jarley:                       The money is in third.

Jesse Wolfe:                     The money's in the third. Yup.

Paul Jarley:                       You lost to women who wanted to pee in a cup.

Jesse Wolfe:                     Yeah, that's [crosstalk 00:06:57] I lost to a female urination cup so that's one of my greatest prides thus far at UCF. But yeah, I took that prize money it was about four thousand dollars. And again, I launched now our multi-million dollar business with $4,150.

Paul Jarley:                       But in fairness of that day, because I remember that day really well.

Jesse Wolfe:                     So do I.

Paul Jarley:                       I can imagine you do....

Featured Guests:

Erik Kohler - The "Voice" of UCF Football

Carolyn Massiah - Associate Chair, Department of Marketing & Associate Lecturer, Marketing

Yael Zemack-Rugar - Assistant Professor of Marketing

Nick Riggle - Philosopher, Author of On Being Awesome: A Unified Theory of How Not to Suck

Episode Transcription:

 

Paul Jarley:                         Today's biggest viral sensation isn't a cat playing a piano or the Annoying Orange. It's an 18 year UCF college student staring at a camera. Seriously, can this really be a thing? This show is all about separating hype from fundamental change. I'm Paul Jarley, Dean of the College of Business here at UCF. I've got lots of questions. To get answers, I'm talking to people with interesting insights into the future of business. Have you ever wondered, is this really a thing? Onto our show.

Paul Jarley:                         So how can a college freshman staring blankly into space get more likes on social media than the UCF national championship football team? Erik Kohler is the stadium voice of UCF football.

Erik Kohler:                        Well, what's funny is, I'm up there in the production box of the sights and sounds of the stadium, and we go through the camera shots like we're doing like a fan of the game or marketing promotions and such. And we came across the crazy students section and everyone was going crazy and all of a sudden, the camera caught Anthony Allan, that just had this dead stare face. I think his nickname is Frozen Face. And the camera caught it and I could hear our camera guy says, hey, go back to that kid. And sure enough everybody started looking at video board, everybody just became enamored that he didn't blink, it was just kind of like a blank face, or a frozen face, I should say, and then it took off like wildfire.

Paul Jarley:                         This didn't stop at the first game. It continued last week.

Erik Kohler:                        We had it, where there was cutouts of his face, right. The fans were moving it and then the TV camera perfectly zoomed through all those faces that were fake, or the fat heads and there was real Anthony right in the middle, and that was hilarious.

Paul Jarley:                         Marissa, one of our UCF College of Business ambassadors was in the stands at the time.

Marissa:                               I think I definitely thought creepy at first. But because everybody started laughing, then it became more funny. His social media went a little bit viral, he got a ton of followers from that. So ...

Paul Jarley:                         I was at the game last week, it was awesome, to understand what happened, I went to Nick Riggle. How are you doing my friend?

Nick Riggle:                        I'm great. I'm great.

Paul Jarley:                         Nick holds a PhD in philosophy from NYU. He was our guest speaker at Welcome to the Majors a couple of years ago, and he's written a book called, On Being Awesome: A Unified Theory of How Not to Suck. Nick and I sat down to talk about social openings.

Nick Riggle:                        A social opening is an opportunity, it's a kind of .... It happens when an individual expresses him or herself in a way that gets other people to express themselves, often by like breaking the norms or breaking out of your social roles or doing what's unexpected or surprising.

Paul Jarley:                         Is our staring man, is that a social opening?

Nick Riggle:                        And so I think the staring guy actually does this, and I think it's brilliant. But what's special about this one is that it seems to me to be a social opening between the audience member and the cameraman, and maybe the producers as well. But it's one that is so weird and fun that it resonates throughout the rest of the crowd. And so they're kind of engaging at one remove.

Paul Jarley:                         A philosopher can explain to me the ethics of awesomeness. But to understand why this went viral, well now I need my marketing faculty.

Yael Zemack-Rugar:        A big piece of when things go viral in an internet world is about connecting.

Paul Jarley:                         Yael Zemack-Rugar is an assistant professor in our Marketing Department. She goes on to note that sporting events are particularly prone to situations that lead to viral social media.

Yael Zemack-Rugar:        Where does that happen more than sports? People define their entire being based on the sports teams that they love and hate. So if we're gonna connect, if we're gonna get this, this is us feel, it's gonna be at a sporting event.

Carolyn Massiah:             There's a community of college students who want to feel like they are unique and one.

Paul Jarley:                         That's Carolyn Massiah from our UCF Marketing Department. She goes on to stress authenticity and the fact that people want to stand out from the crowd.

Carolyn Massiah:             I think if it resonates with the target market, if it resonates with a certain segment, if it's like that could be me too, I think it'll go viral. He gets to be unique in a crowd, just by being himself.

Paul Jarley:                         But how long can this continue? Nick Riggle has one take. One of the questions, I had was how long can a social opening last? Do you have any sense of that?

Nick Riggle:                        So I think it'll last in that context, as long as people are still enthusiastic about it, as long as it's still reverberating throughout the crowd like that, and the producer and the audience and Anthony are having fun doing it. One thing I was thinking was it might be kind of like the high five, where the high five started out as part of the community building function of a baseball team, of the LA Dodgers in the 70s. And it might be kind of fun to see the stare happen outside of the stadium.

Paul Jarley:                         It is by the way. Anthony's taken his show on the road. He's visited his trigonometry class. But seriously people, if this is a thing, somebody's got to make money at it. We're a business school after all. Back to Yael.

Yael Zemack-Rugar:        You can do ads, you can merchandise or you can sponsor; this doesn't seem to apply here.

Paul Jarley:                         Well he has the big heads of himself, out there staring.

Yael Zemack-Rugar:        Yeah, well maybe there's hope.

Paul Jarley:                         I don't know if he's selling those or not, yeah.

Yael Zemack-Rugar:        And then, the other dimension is if he accrues enough followers on his social media to become an opinion leader, then people will start paying him for that.

Paul Jarley:                         So he got more likes on his Instagram than the UCF National Championship team did.

Yael Zemack-Rugar:        Okay so if he can leverage that to actual influence, that is ongoing ...

Paul Jarley:                         Then he could be a thing.

Yael Zemack-Rugar:        Have there been other 18 years old with no discernible skill that have been able to do this. The answer is yes.

Paul Jarley:                         Our friends at Rock ‘Em Apparel have an angle on this. They've made five special pairs of socks with Anthony's face on it. Not sure they're really gonna do a run of 5,000. They're kind of hedging their bets. But Carolyn Massiah has an ingenious idea for Anthony. Think Halloween people.

Carolyn Massiah:             You know what, I would maybe put a bank on someone on the UCF campus having his face as their Halloween costume.

Paul Jarley:                         Oh now there's a whole new element… [crosstalk 00:06:17]

Carolyn Massiah:             Yeah, but after, I think it'll trickle off.

Paul Jarley:                         So Carolyn Massiah has called the question here: Is this kid really a thing? Our student ambassador notes, the football team sure seems to think so. You mentioned that you tutor some of the football team.

Marissa:                               Yes.

Paul Jarley:                         What do the players think?

Marissa:                               I mean, there all saw the kid. I know that when I went on his Instagram, cause his picture went viral, I saw there were several comments from football players, saying you're our guy, man. You're so cool, yada, yada. Things like that. And all the football players definitely saw him on the screen.

Paul Jarley:                         From Erik.

Erik Kohler:                        I think if you have socks, you've made it, yeah.

Paul Jarley:                         From Nick.

Nick Riggle:                        Ah it's a good question.

Paul Jarley:                         Eh, he's a philosopher. From Yael.

Yael Zemack-Rugar:        Yeah, he's an engineering student. He has a good day job.

Paul Jarley:                         Hopefully. It's my podcast so I get to go last. Anthony offered a social opening, the cameraman was game, he was authentic, it was awesome. Right time, right place, bam, viral. I don't see this becoming the high five, but Halloween night on campus, well that just might involve a lot of staring. Keep studying Anthony, you have a great story to tell your kids someday. But your future belongs to engineering. Or if that doesn't work out, you can always walk down the hall to the College of Business.

Paul Jarley:                         In the meantime, go Knights. Stare on.

Paul Jarley:                         What's your take? Check us out online and share your thoughts at business.ucf.edu/podcast. You can also find extended interviews with our guests and notes from the show. Special thanks to my producer, Josh Miranda, and the whole team at the office of Outreach and Engagement here at the UCF College of Business. And thank you for listening....

Featured Guests:

Libby Mustaine - Professor of Sociology

Chris Leo - Lecturer, Integrated Business

Bill Steiger - Associate Instructor of Marketing; Instructor & Coordinator, Professional Selling Program

Bob Danna - Retired Managing Director, Deloitte

Episode Transcription:

Paul Jarley:                         Some say they're the result of failed parenting strategies. Others say they're addicted to their phones, narcissistic, and entitled. The Western Michigan Whitecaps celebrated them by giving the first thousand people to come watch the team's baseball game a participation trophy.

Whitecaps Fan:                 Oh, you know, we just really want a participation trophy.

Whitecaps Fan 2:             Yeah.

Whitecaps Fan:                 It's been a long week of hard work and-

Whitecaps Fan 2:             We really earned it.

Whitecaps Fan:                 I feel like we really deserve something.

Paul Jarley:                         They job hop, have no loyalty, and want to have an impact, yet their greatest invention just might be selfie. Consultants everywhere just can't stop talking about them. Millennials want you to think they're special, but maybe, just maybe, they're just like the rest of us.

Paul Jarley:                         This show is all about separating hype from fundamental change. I'm Paul Jarley, Dean of the College of Business here at UCF. I've got lots of questions. To get answers, I'm talking to people with interesting insights into the future of business. Have you ever wondered, "Is this really a thing?" On to our show.

Paul Jarley:                         Like all data-driven decision makers, I'm sensitive to the differences in my staff's dispositions when assigning them tasks. A few examples. Tiffany is an Aries like me. Anyone that knows Tiff recognizes that she needs to be in a leadership position to satisfy her need for control.

Tiffany Hughes:                I believe I'm tough. I believe I can negotiate extremely well.

Paul Jarley:                         But if Tiff is an Aries, she's also cold-hearted, reckless, and ruthless.

Tiffany Hughes:                Oh, my heavens, no. I hope not.

Paul Jarley:                         And then there's the Aries' legendary ability to deliver bad news.

Tiffany Hughes:                Every day I try to look for the sunshine.

Paul Jarley:                         Yeah, not her. My Associate Dean of Learning, Foard Jones, is a Libra. Like all Libras, he's extremely intellectual and needs a job that is mentally stimulating. Libras are excellent networkers and take a look at every aspect of the job before completing it. But if Foard's a Libra, that should also mean he's resentful, overindulgent, spiteful, indecisive, and gullible.

Foard Jones:                      At times, but most of the times, no. [laughs]

Paul Jarley:                         That doesn't sound like Foard. Libras sound more like Catbert, the evil HR manager from Gilbert. Good thing I took Foard out of that role. That sounds ridiculous, doesn't it? No one in their right mind would assign people jobs based on their astrological sign. I don't know a single reputable management consultant that argues we need to tailor our company HR policies and people's roles to their birth month. But I do know a ton that say we should vary these same policies based on people's birth year.

Paul Jarley:                         They say things like this.

Bob Danna:                         One of the things that we've teased out is that diversity and flexibility are the key to loyalty. The younger workers, the younger of the millennials feel that they are unprepared for industry 4.0.

Paul Jarley:                         Bob Danna sits on my Dean's Advisory Board. He's a retired managing director at Deloitte. Bob has spent much of his career studying people in the workplace. We'll hear much more from him a bit later.

Paul Jarley:                         For the record, there are seven living generations in America today. But practically speaking, just four are currently in the workplace. Baby boomers were born between 1946 and 1964. Generation X-ers were born between 1965 and 1979. Millennials were born between 1980 and 1994. And Generation Z, people who were born between 1995 and 2012. Right now, the millennials are the ones making the news. The boomers are retiring. Nobody ever thinks about Generation X. And Generation Z is really just getting to adulthood.

Paul Jarley:                         So, if you wanna position yourself as a management consultant who is in the know about generations and make money doing it, you focus on millennials. They're a very large group entering the primes of their career. But are they really different, or is all this generational advice what Sheldon Cooper might call-

Shelden Cooper:              Just as I suspected, nothing but hokum.

Paul Jarley:                         To find out, I started at the source, millennials themselves.

Jean Paul Enriquez:        My name is Jean Paul Enriquez, and I'm a junior in the College of Business.

Amaireny Lantigua:         I'm Amaireny Lantigua. I'm a junior.

Austen Horton:                 My name's Austen Horten.

Paul Jarley:                         I didn't have to go far to get their take.

Jean Paul Enriquez:        Well, the first thing I gotta say is that we definitely always use our phones. We're attached to technology like never before. Something else is, apparently, we are ... we feel like we're entitled to a lot of things. We're entitled to more than what we deserve. The last thing is, we lack social intelligence compared to other generations.

Amaireny Lantigua:         When I think about the things that sets millennials apart, would be the technology, as well. Another different thing that sets generations apart will be the culture and what each generation ... current events in each generation were.

Austen Horton:                 We're impatient, confused, and challenged. Rather than entitled, I think impatient's a better word because a lot of millennials, they just want things done fast. It's not like they feel they deserve it, it's just they feel they deserve it quicker.

Paul Jarley:                         Attached to technology, entitled or impatient, socially awkward in face to face situations, confused, challenged, and lost.

YouTube Clip:                     Adulting is hard.

Paul Jarley:                         Good lord. How did they get this way? Professor Libby Mustaine is chair of the UCF sociology department.

Libby Mustaine:               So, I think there are some differences in values.

Paul Jarley:                         She stresses the importance of early life experiences.

Libby Mustaine:               There are historical things that happened. Period effects, if you will, that actually do impact the way people grow up and the way people respond to the experiences that they've had. I think a couple of really important things that have happened with millennials is technology. We are so ... Think about when we were growing up. I was telling my kids the other day, I was like, "Here you are walking around with a smartphone, all of your friends have one. When I was your age, I had a phone that was tacked to the wall, and if I wanted any privacy at all, I had to hope the cord was long enough and I could go around the corner and talk on the phone." And then, inevitably, my sister would come and interrupt me and say, "I need time on the phone." Today, we have nothing like that. We just call each other on our own little personal thing.

Paul Jarley:                         And then, there's Google.

Libby Mustaine:               You can find out information wherever, whenever, whatever, today. All of that is so impactful, I think, on a generation.

Paul Jarley:                         Bob sees things a little differently. He believes long run industry and technology cycles create pairs of generations that tend to repeat themselves over time.

Bob Danna:                         I think that we're on a major cycle that's probably 40 or 50 years in length, including the technology cycle. If you think of the technology revolution that was going on in the 70s, the boomers really drove a big portion of that, and now, looking at the industry 4.0, all of the automation, and connectivity, and A.I., and cognitive technologies, and robotics, that the millennials will drive and are starting to drive, there's some real parallels to that. The smaller generations that followed both, the X-ers and now the Z's, probably gonna generally fall in behind those major generations. But it's not only kind of a generational element, but the cycle is probably more like a 40 or 50 year cycle than just a generational cycle, a single generational cycle.

Paul Jarley:                         Baby boomers and millennials share characteristics because they kicked off technology cycles, while Generation X-ers and Z's are similar because they closed out these cycles.

Bob Danna:                         I think there's a number of defining features for both of those groups that actually parallel quite interestingly the characteristics that were associated with both the boomers and the Gen X's. I'll just go through them really quickly. Millennials were seen as optimistic. Gen Z are now starting to be seen as realistic. And think about boomers and X's as I'm going through here, as well.

Paul Jarley:                         We're going to give you some common contrasts between boomers and X-ers along the way so you can compare. Nothing scientific. Boomers, optimistic. X-ers, pragmatic.

Bob Danna:                         Millennials, collaborative. The Gen Z, independent.

Paul Jarley:                         Boomers, consensus. X-ers, independent.

Bob Danna:                         Millennials,...